So I have read a lot of talk about the best route for Buffalo in the draft is to trade down; now I don't disagree but I think I have that thought for different reasons.
why does who we pick where really even matter? To me it doesn't, especially with the new CBA. I just don't believe any pick ever matches what that pick is valued at. Some picks become more valuable then when they were drafted while others are less valuable then their draft status.
When top 5 picks were getting ungodly amounts of money I debated this a little because the contracts were so outrageous, philosophically draft pick # was more important because I felt you had to justify the contract. Now that there is a limit I could care less what said players value is at right now.
The way I look at it is, whomever we pick at #9, will that player be the at least the 9th best player after a few years from this draft class? The answer is more than likely no. The last few drafts I feel proves my point. No draft pick is ever worth their value (Luck I think might be the only positive example who is) so if we draft someone who is believed to be a 3rd rd pick at #9 I'm not angry as long as he exceeds his value which is being at least the 9th overall from his draft class. Will that happen, more than likely not so technically he is a bust.
The draft is all hit or miss, there is no for certain. If we get Clowney for some odd reason he falls that far, he will either be steal or a bust. I understand people will argue about the gray area, but he is projected 1-3 so #9 is not in the gray area. So let's say we take Ebron who is considered a mid-first round pick. I'll take that as 11-21. So if we draft him at #9 and he ends up being the 13th best in his draft class, is that a bust? Technically No, but he never made his value at the pick he was drafted.
All of this stated I still believe "if" we can we should trade down. Not because who we draft at #9 can't be worth that pick, but statistically we have a better chance of having two of three let's say at #16, #41, and a #60 exceeding their value than only two at #9 and #41.