FanPost

2014 TD Ranks: Where history says we'll need to be for the post-season.


Buffalobills.com put out this article recently, discussing reasons why the Buffalo Bills should be better in the red zone this year. And while it was interesting, it got me thinking - how much would we realistically have to score in order to make the cut for the post season?

Now obviously that number varies from season to season, and in researching three seasons worth of info and compiling my own spreadsheets to track it all (it's a Sunday, all of the sports I care about are over, and I was just gifted a bottle of Johnny Walker Platinum - don't judge me) , I found some interesting anomalies. One example is that in 2011 the Bills were actually ranked #11 in TD's scored, while the Jets, Falcons, Chargers and Eagles all finished in the top 10. Yet none of them were good enough to win a playoff berth. Meanwhile, San Francisco has been a dominant team but hasn't cracked the top 10 since 2002, and haven't been higher than 11 in any of the last 3 years.

Take a look at the touchdown rankings from last season:

Rk

Team

G

Pts/G

TotPts

Total

Rsh

Rec

Ret

Def

1

Denver Broncos

16

37.9

606

76

16

55

2

3

2

Cincinnati Bengals

16

26.9

430

54

14

33

0

7

3

Philadelphia Eagles

16

27.6

442

53

19

32

0

2

4

Chicago Bears

16

27.8

445

52

13

32

1

6

4

Kansas City Chiefs

16

26.9

430

52

17

24

4

7

6

Dallas Cowboys

16

27.4

439

51

12

33

1

5

7

New Orleans Saints

16

25.9

414

49

10

39

0

0

8

Detroit Lions

16

24.7

395

48

15

29

2

2

9

New England Patriots

16

27.8

444

47

19

25

0

3

10

Green Bay Packers

16

26.1

417

46

17

25

1

3

11

Minnesota Vikings

16

24.4

391

45

23

18

3

1

11

Seattle Seahawks

16

26.1

417

45

14

27

0

4

13

San Francisco 49ers

16

25.4

406

44

18

21

0

5

14

Carolina Panthers

16

22.9

366

42

14

24

0

4

14

San Diego Chargers

16

24.8

396

42

9

32

0

1

19

Indianapolis Colts

16

24.4

391

40

15

23

0

2

This is a compilation of the top 10 teams in TD scoring, expanded a bit to account to for everyone who made the post season. You can see that Dallas, Detroit and Minnesota were excellent at putting points on the board, but were terrible overall resulting in mediocre records. Buffalo finished 25th overall here (34 TD's).

These are the rankings from 2012:

Rk

Team

G

Pts/G

TotPts

Total

Rsh

Rec

Ret

Def

1

New England Patriots

16

34.8

557

67

25

34

2

6

2

New Orleans Saints

16

28.8

461

58

10

43

0

5

3

Denver Broncos

16

30.1

481

57

12

37

2

6

4

Green Bay Packers

16

27.1

433

53

9

40

1

3

5

Washington Redskins

16

27.2

436

52

22

24

0

6

6

Seattle Seahawks

16

25.8

412

49

16

27

1

5

7

New York Giants

16

26.8

429

47

18

26

1

2

8

Atlanta Falcons

16

26.2

419

46

12

32

0

2

8

Houston Texans

16

26

416

46

19

22

0

5

10

Baltimore Ravens

16

24.9

398

44

17

22

3

2

10

Carolina Panthers

16

22.3

357

44

21

19

0

4

10

San Francisco 49ers

16

24.8

397

44

17

23

0

4

10

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

16

24.3

389

44

13

27

0

4

14

Cincinnati Bengals

16

24.4

391

43

11

28

1

3

17

Indianapolis Colts

16

22.3

357

40

11

23

2

4

19

Minnesota Vikings

16

23.7

379

39

16

18

2

3

Again, we see some teams that while great at scoring, either played in a competitive division, or were terrible at defense and it made their scoring meaningless. It is also worth noting that while 2011 was more of the same, the 21st ranked team (San Francisco) did manage to make it into the post season and find some success. Every year it seems there are teams that can air it out with the best of them, yet can't put together enough solid "team performances" to make it matter.

********************************

I know that's a lot of info to put out there, but my takeaway from it all is this - you don't have to have a high powered offense in the regular season to win a post season berth. You need a consistent offense that is opportunistic and you have to have a defense that can play average to above average football every week.

There are a lot of people, both outsiders and die hard fans alike, who still think making the playoffs this year is a reach. Yet last year proved that our defense has talent and can be solid if put in a position to win by the coaching staff. With the additions we've made to our roster and EJ no longer being a rookie, there is no reason to expect regression from the offense. With even marginal improvement in our total output and efficiency, there's no reason to think that we couldn't finish with 40-43 TDS and be in the mix for at least a wild card berth this season. It's just up to them to go get it.

Now excuse me while I freshen up my drink and watch my favorite Bills pump-up videos here and here one more time. If you're still here, thanks for reading. I hope you guys find this as encouraging as I do, and I'd love to hear what you all think about it.

Let's go Buffalo!

Just another great fan opinion shared on the pages of BuffaloRumblings.com.

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