FanPost

EJ Manuel vs. Rookie Expectations

A large portion of the Buffalo Bills' hopes this season is pinned squarely on their "franchise quarterback", EJ Manuel. His rookie season has been broken down in many ways, and I see many people (including myself) thinking he performed well, while others see his rookie season as a disaster. Of course, this is all based on personal opinion, and I think that many of Manuel's detractors were expecting him to immediately post stats like a veteran. Even if he had been expected to start right away, that was an unrealistic expectation.

The only true facts we have to work with are his stats. All alone by themselves, you could draw almost any conclusion you want, so I've placed Manuel's rookie stats alongside the stats of the 19 other rookie QBs from the past five years who played in seven or more games. Note that this excludes guys like Colin Kaepernick and Jake Locker as they had veterans (Alex Smith and Matt Hasselbeck) ahead of them on the depth chart initially and didn't get significant playing time in their rookie seasons.

This chart is sorted by QB Rating. While it's not the best stat, it does give us a fair idea of who did well and who didn't.

Name Year Draft G GS W-L Comp Att % Yards Y/G TD INT Y/A QBR Sacks S/G Rush Yards Avg TD FumL All TDs Turnovers
Robert Griffin III 2012 2 15 15 9-6 258 393 65.6% 3200 213.3 20 5 8.1 102.4 30 2.0 120 815 6.8 7 2 27 7
Russell Wilson 2012 75 16 16 11-5 252 393 64.1% 3118 194.9 26 10 7.9 100.0 33 2.1 94 489 5.2 4 3 30 13
Cam Newton 2011 1 16 16 6-10 310 517 60.0% 4051 253.2 21 17 7.8 84.5 35 2.2 126 706 5.6 14 2 35 19
Mike Glennon 2013 73 13 13 4-9 247 416 59.4% 2608 200.6 19 9 6.3 83.9 40 3.1 27 37 1.4 0 4 19 13
Tim Tebow 2010 25 9 3 1-2 41 82 50.0% 654 72.7 5 3 8.0 82.1 6 0.7 43 227 5.3 6 0 11 3
Andy Dalton 2011 35 16 16 9-7 300 516 58.1% 3398 212.4 20 13 6.6 80.4 24 1.5 37 152 4.1 1 2 21 15
Nick Foles 2012 88 7 6 1-5 161 265 60.8% 1699 242.7 6 5 6.4 79.1 20 2.9 11 42 3.8 1 3 7 8
EJ Manuel 2013 16 10 10 4-6 180 306 58.8% 1972 197.2 11 9 6.4 77.7 28 2.8 53 186 3.5 2 3 13 12
Andrew Luck 2012 1 16 16 11-5 339 627 54.1% 4374 273.4 23 18 7.0 76.5 41 2.6 62 255 4.1 5 5 28 23
Sam Bradford 2010 1 16 16 7-9 354 590 60.0% 3512 219.5 18 15 6.0 76.5 34 2.1 27 63 2.3 1 2 19 17
Ryan Tannehill 2012 8 16 16 7-9 282 484 58.3% 3294 205.9 12 13 6.8 76.1 35 2.2 49 211 4.3 2 4 14 17
Colt McCoy 2010 85 8 8 2-6 135 222 60.8% 1576 197.0 6 9 7.1 74.5 23 2.9 28 136 4.9 1 0 7 9
Brandon Weeden 2012 22 15 15 5-10 297 517 57.4% 3385 225.7 14 17 6.5 72.6 28 1.9 27 111 4.1 0 1 14 18
Christian Ponder 2011 12 11 10 2-8 158 291 54.3% 1853 168.5 13 13 6.4 70.1 30 2.7 28 219 7.8 0 2 13 15
Geno Smith 2013 39 16 16 8-8 247 443 55.8% 3046 190.4 12 21 6.9 66.5 43 2.7 72 366 5.1 6 4 18 25
Blaine Gabbert 2011 10 15 14 4-10 210 413 50.8% 2214 147.6 12 11 5.4 65.4 40 2.7 48 98 2.0 0 5 12 16
Mark Sanchez 2009 5 15 15 8-7 196 364 53.8% 2444 162.9 12 20 6.7 63.0 26 1.7 36 106 2.9 3 3 15 23
Matthew Stafford 2009 1 10 10 2-8 201 377 53.3% 2267 226.7 13 20 6.0 61.0 24 2.4 20 108 5.4 2 1 15 21
Josh Freeman 2009 17 10 9 3-6 158 290 54.5% 1855 185.5 10 18 6.4 59.8 20 2.0 30 161 5.4 0 2 10 20
Jimmy Clausen 2010 48 13 10 1-9 157 299 52.5% 1558 119.8 3 9 5.2 58.4 33 2.5 23 57 2.5 0 2 3 11

So, how did Manuel's rookie season stack up? Not bad, actually, especially when you consider that he missed several weeks of games and practices with injuries. He was just above the median QB Rating of 76.5, and you can see that most rookie QBs fell in the range of mid-80s to mid-60s.

Very few of the rookies had winning records. The ones who did well (Wilson and Luck) had quality teams around them. The Seahawks have a tremendous defense, and the Colts were a playoff team for many seasons up until they were without Peyton Manning for one year. Mike Shanahan was about to throw in the towel when Washington was 3-7, but RG3 managed to lead the team to six straight wins and a playoff berth. Unfortunately, Shanahan rode RG3 a bit too long, and the terrible knee injury in the playoffs had a lasting effect into 2013.

While much has been made of his accuracy, Manuel is 8th on that list for completion percentage. A lot of it has come from checking down to easier throws, but he was also missing his top two receivers (Stevie Johnson and Robert Woods) for several games.

Despite a run-first offense, Manuel was in the middle of the pack (11th) for yards per game. He was also in the middle (9th) for attempts per game, so that makes sense. His yards per attempt is a little below the average, but hardly alarming. Between Manuel's knee injuries and Goodwin's broken hand, those two were only on the field together for a handful of games, and that's going to be the deep connection that will push that average up in the future.

Manuel had the 4th-highest number of sacks per game. We've seen his ability to escape pressure, so this is clearly not an issue with him being a statue in the pocket and holding the ball way too long. The protection from the O-line, particularly at LG and RT, was awful last year, and Manuel rarely had time to set his feet and throw properly. Buffalo made heavy investments in an attempt to upgrade the O-line this year, and better protection would go a long way in Manuel's development.

Manuel was one of only nine rookie QBs to have a positive TD-to-turnover ratio at +1, so he did a reasonable job of protecting the ball. Other than one really bad game against Tampa (four INTs), he had been doing a great job of protecting the ball and being a game manager.

Of this list, Tebow, McCoy, Gabbert, Weeden, Ponder, Sanchez, Freeman, and Clausen have been busts and are no longer starting quarterbacks, and two (Tebow and Clausen) are out of the league already. Freeman could be next as he is a free agent currently looking for work after failing with multiple teams last year. Almost every one of the busts was in the bottom half of the QB Ratings as a rookie, with the notable exception being Matthew Stafford. His career has been good, but he's been a bit of a disappointment considering that he was a #1 overall pick.

Overall, it looks like Manuel got off to a better start than our two AFC East competitors (the Jets and Dolphins) who have drafted and started three rookie QBs (Sanchez, Smith, and Tannehill) between them. If Manuel can get better protection this year and continue to show progress, we will be in good shape, especially when the Patriots have to replace their aging starter with someone new.

Just another great fan opinion shared on the pages of BuffaloRumblings.com.