A large portion of the Buffalo Bills' hopes this season is pinned squarely on their "franchise quarterback", EJ Manuel. His rookie season has been broken down in many ways, and I see many people (including myself) thinking he performed well, while others see his rookie season as a disaster. Of course, this is all based on personal opinion, and I think that many of Manuel's detractors were expecting him to immediately post stats like a veteran. Even if he had been expected to start right away, that was an unrealistic expectation.
The only true facts we have to work with are his stats. All alone by themselves, you could draw almost any conclusion you want, so I've placed Manuel's rookie stats alongside the stats of the 19 other rookie QBs from the past five years who played in seven or more games. Note that this excludes guys like Colin Kaepernick and Jake Locker as they had veterans (Alex Smith and Matt Hasselbeck) ahead of them on the depth chart initially and didn't get significant playing time in their rookie seasons.
This chart is sorted by QB Rating. While it's not the best stat, it does give us a fair idea of who did well and who didn't.
Name | Year | Draft | G | GS | W-L | Comp | Att | % | Yards | Y/G | TD | INT | Y/A | QBR | Sacks | S/G | Rush | Yards | Avg | TD | FumL | All TDs | Turnovers |
Robert Griffin III | 2012 | 2 | 15 | 15 | 9-6 | 258 | 393 | 65.6% | 3200 | 213.3 | 20 | 5 | 8.1 | 102.4 | 30 | 2.0 | 120 | 815 | 6.8 | 7 | 2 | 27 | 7 |
Russell Wilson | 2012 | 75 | 16 | 16 | 11-5 | 252 | 393 | 64.1% | 3118 | 194.9 | 26 | 10 | 7.9 | 100.0 | 33 | 2.1 | 94 | 489 | 5.2 | 4 | 3 | 30 | 13 |
Cam Newton | 2011 | 1 | 16 | 16 | 6-10 | 310 | 517 | 60.0% | 4051 | 253.2 | 21 | 17 | 7.8 | 84.5 | 35 | 2.2 | 126 | 706 | 5.6 | 14 | 2 | 35 | 19 |
Mike Glennon | 2013 | 73 | 13 | 13 | 4-9 | 247 | 416 | 59.4% | 2608 | 200.6 | 19 | 9 | 6.3 | 83.9 | 40 | 3.1 | 27 | 37 | 1.4 | 0 | 4 | 19 | 13 |
Tim Tebow | 2010 | 25 | 9 | 3 | 1-2 | 41 | 82 | 50.0% | 654 | 72.7 | 5 | 3 | 8.0 | 82.1 | 6 | 0.7 | 43 | 227 | 5.3 | 6 | 0 | 11 | 3 |
Andy Dalton | 2011 | 35 | 16 | 16 | 9-7 | 300 | 516 | 58.1% | 3398 | 212.4 | 20 | 13 | 6.6 | 80.4 | 24 | 1.5 | 37 | 152 | 4.1 | 1 | 2 | 21 | 15 |
Nick Foles | 2012 | 88 | 7 | 6 | 1-5 | 161 | 265 | 60.8% | 1699 | 242.7 | 6 | 5 | 6.4 | 79.1 | 20 | 2.9 | 11 | 42 | 3.8 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 8 |
EJ Manuel | 2013 | 16 | 10 | 10 | 4-6 | 180 | 306 | 58.8% | 1972 | 197.2 | 11 | 9 | 6.4 | 77.7 | 28 | 2.8 | 53 | 186 | 3.5 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 12 |
Andrew Luck | 2012 | 1 | 16 | 16 | 11-5 | 339 | 627 | 54.1% | 4374 | 273.4 | 23 | 18 | 7.0 | 76.5 | 41 | 2.6 | 62 | 255 | 4.1 | 5 | 5 | 28 | 23 |
Sam Bradford | 2010 | 1 | 16 | 16 | 7-9 | 354 | 590 | 60.0% | 3512 | 219.5 | 18 | 15 | 6.0 | 76.5 | 34 | 2.1 | 27 | 63 | 2.3 | 1 | 2 | 19 | 17 |
Ryan Tannehill | 2012 | 8 | 16 | 16 | 7-9 | 282 | 484 | 58.3% | 3294 | 205.9 | 12 | 13 | 6.8 | 76.1 | 35 | 2.2 | 49 | 211 | 4.3 | 2 | 4 | 14 | 17 |
Colt McCoy | 2010 | 85 | 8 | 8 | 2-6 | 135 | 222 | 60.8% | 1576 | 197.0 | 6 | 9 | 7.1 | 74.5 | 23 | 2.9 | 28 | 136 | 4.9 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 9 |
Brandon Weeden | 2012 | 22 | 15 | 15 | 5-10 | 297 | 517 | 57.4% | 3385 | 225.7 | 14 | 17 | 6.5 | 72.6 | 28 | 1.9 | 27 | 111 | 4.1 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 18 |
Christian Ponder | 2011 | 12 | 11 | 10 | 2-8 | 158 | 291 | 54.3% | 1853 | 168.5 | 13 | 13 | 6.4 | 70.1 | 30 | 2.7 | 28 | 219 | 7.8 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 15 |
Geno Smith | 2013 | 39 | 16 | 16 | 8-8 | 247 | 443 | 55.8% | 3046 | 190.4 | 12 | 21 | 6.9 | 66.5 | 43 | 2.7 | 72 | 366 | 5.1 | 6 | 4 | 18 | 25 |
Blaine Gabbert | 2011 | 10 | 15 | 14 | 4-10 | 210 | 413 | 50.8% | 2214 | 147.6 | 12 | 11 | 5.4 | 65.4 | 40 | 2.7 | 48 | 98 | 2.0 | 0 | 5 | 12 | 16 |
Mark Sanchez | 2009 | 5 | 15 | 15 | 8-7 | 196 | 364 | 53.8% | 2444 | 162.9 | 12 | 20 | 6.7 | 63.0 | 26 | 1.7 | 36 | 106 | 2.9 | 3 | 3 | 15 | 23 |
Matthew Stafford | 2009 | 1 | 10 | 10 | 2-8 | 201 | 377 | 53.3% | 2267 | 226.7 | 13 | 20 | 6.0 | 61.0 | 24 | 2.4 | 20 | 108 | 5.4 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 21 |
Josh Freeman | 2009 | 17 | 10 | 9 | 3-6 | 158 | 290 | 54.5% | 1855 | 185.5 | 10 | 18 | 6.4 | 59.8 | 20 | 2.0 | 30 | 161 | 5.4 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 20 |
Jimmy Clausen | 2010 | 48 | 13 | 10 | 1-9 | 157 | 299 | 52.5% | 1558 | 119.8 | 3 | 9 | 5.2 | 58.4 | 33 | 2.5 | 23 | 57 | 2.5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 11 |
So, how did Manuel's rookie season stack up? Not bad, actually, especially when you consider that he missed several weeks of games and practices with injuries. He was just above the median QB Rating of 76.5, and you can see that most rookie QBs fell in the range of mid-80s to mid-60s.
Very few of the rookies had winning records. The ones who did well (Wilson and Luck) had quality teams around them. The Seahawks have a tremendous defense, and the Colts were a playoff team for many seasons up until they were without Peyton Manning for one year. Mike Shanahan was about to throw in the towel when Washington was 3-7, but RG3 managed to lead the team to six straight wins and a playoff berth. Unfortunately, Shanahan rode RG3 a bit too long, and the terrible knee injury in the playoffs had a lasting effect into 2013.
While much has been made of his accuracy, Manuel is 8th on that list for completion percentage. A lot of it has come from checking down to easier throws, but he was also missing his top two receivers (Stevie Johnson and Robert Woods) for several games.
Despite a run-first offense, Manuel was in the middle of the pack (11th) for yards per game. He was also in the middle (9th) for attempts per game, so that makes sense. His yards per attempt is a little below the average, but hardly alarming. Between Manuel's knee injuries and Goodwin's broken hand, those two were only on the field together for a handful of games, and that's going to be the deep connection that will push that average up in the future.
Manuel had the 4th-highest number of sacks per game. We've seen his ability to escape pressure, so this is clearly not an issue with him being a statue in the pocket and holding the ball way too long. The protection from the O-line, particularly at LG and RT, was awful last year, and Manuel rarely had time to set his feet and throw properly. Buffalo made heavy investments in an attempt to upgrade the O-line this year, and better protection would go a long way in Manuel's development.
Manuel was one of only nine rookie QBs to have a positive TD-to-turnover ratio at +1, so he did a reasonable job of protecting the ball. Other than one really bad game against Tampa (four INTs), he had been doing a great job of protecting the ball and being a game manager.
Of this list, Tebow, McCoy, Gabbert, Weeden, Ponder, Sanchez, Freeman, and Clausen have been busts and are no longer starting quarterbacks, and two (Tebow and Clausen) are out of the league already. Freeman could be next as he is a free agent currently looking for work after failing with multiple teams last year. Almost every one of the busts was in the bottom half of the QB Ratings as a rookie, with the notable exception being Matthew Stafford. His career has been good, but he's been a bit of a disappointment considering that he was a #1 overall pick.
Overall, it looks like Manuel got off to a better start than our two AFC East competitors (the Jets and Dolphins) who have drafted and started three rookie QBs (Sanchez, Smith, and Tannehill) between them. If Manuel can get better protection this year and continue to show progress, we will be in good shape, especially when the Patriots have to replace their aging starter with someone new.