FanPost

Has the light bulb already turned on for EJ Manuel?

EJ Manuel started his rookie season with a very strong effort in a loss to the Patriots, then followed it up with a so-so game against the Panthers with a fantastic finish. After that, he seemed to slump, struggling a bit in games against the Jets, Ravens, and Browns. When he returned from the knee injury suffered against the Browns, he looked rustier than a car that's been left outside for 40 years in a loss to the Steelers. However, starting with the following week, Manuel has started to show signs that the game is slowing down for him. In his past six games (final four of 2013 plus the first two of 2014), he has posted five really solid efforts.

Week 11 vs. the Jets:

In their previous encounter, Rex Ryan blitzed Manuel at every opportunity, and Manuel was definitely rattled. He was under constant pressure, getting sacked eight times and completed only 19 of his 42 passes (45.24%). In the rematch, Manuel was nearly flawless while leading the Bills on a 37-10 rout of the Jets. He completed 20 of 28 passes (71.43%) for 245 yards (8.75 Y/A), 2 TDs, and 0 INTs. His QB Rating was 121.9, the highest of his career thus far.

Week 13 vs. the Falcons:

Coming off the bye week, Manuel played well (albeit not great) in Rogers Centre in front of a mostly neutral/empty stadium. He did everything possible to win this game, but untimely turnovers cost the Bills two chances to win the game. He went 18 for 32 (56.25%) for 210 yards (6.56 Y/A), 1 TD, 0 INTs, and a QB Rating of 86.7. He also added a rushing touchdown.

Week 14 vs. the Buccaneers:

Yes, this was the one really bad game of the last six. Buffalo fell behind almost immediately, giving up an 80-yard TD run on the second play of the game. Playing from behind the rest of the way, Buffalo went pass-heavy (almost 2:1 in favor of passing plays called vs. running plays), and Manuel folded like an accordion. He went 18 for 33 (54.55%) for 184 yards (5.58 Y/A), 0 TDs, 4 INTs, and a dismal QB Rating of 31.2.

Week 15 vs. the Jaguars:

So, how would Manuel bounce back from such an awful effort? Quite well, actually. He went 17 for 24 (70.83%) for 193 yards (7.83 Y/A), 2 TDs, 1 INT, and a QB Rating of 105.0, his third-highest of the season (just slightly behind his effort against the Patriots). He also ran for a TD, although he fumble twice, turning the ball over once. He also led a game-winning 4th quarter drive that put the Bills on top for good in a 24-17 victory. However, a third knee injury caused him to miss the remainder of the season.

Week 1 vs. the Bears:

After a preseason that made people wonder where he was headed, Manuel came out firing on all cylinders, completing 16 of 22 passes (72.73%) for 173 yards (7.86 Y/A), 1 TD, 1 INT, and a QB Rating of 91.7. He also added a rushing touchdown, and he kept alive the game-winning drive in overtime with a nice pass to Mike Williams before Fred Jackson made the game's conclusion a mere formality. Although it is the fewest passes Manuel has thrown in a game (tied with his 2013 week 4 effort against the Ravens), he was extremely effective.

Week 2 vs. the Dolphins:

Manuel started out well, going 10 for 19 for 155 yards in the first half, although some missed opportunities left the Bills up 9-0 at halftime instead of 21-0 in a game that Buffalo was clearly dominating. Manuel went 6-for-7 and a TD in the second half, with his only incompletion coming on a 3rd-and-12. With the game well in hand, OC Nathaniel Hackett took the ball out of Manuel's hands in the 4th quarter and ran the ball repeatedly so as to run off as much time as possible. Overall, Manuel went 16 for 26 (61.54%) for 202 yards (7.77 Y/A), 1 TD, 0 INTs, and a QB Rating of 98.6.

Conclusion:

Of his last six games, four have been excellent, one was good, and only one was really bad. Hackett is still limiting how often Manuel throws, but when the Bills can go about 50/50 on play calling, they have been extremely effective. Although Manuel still needs some fine tuning on the placement of his throws, he has the look right now of a QB who "gets it". The results this year have put Manuel very high in categories like completion percentage, Y/A. ANY/A, etc., although the low yardage total is simply a function of the number of passing plays the Bills run compared to other teams. Of the 28 QBs who have played two full games this season, only Ryan Fitzpatrick has thrown fewer passes. Playing with leads for most of the two games have helped lower the number of Manuel's passing attempts.

I wouldn't want to put the Bills into a shootout situation and rely completely on Manuel's arm just yet, but his level of play appears to have gone way up, starting with last year's rematch against the Jets. So far this year, including what we saw in the preseason, he's doing a better job of throwing the ball right as the receiver is starting his break and throwing to the target location (aka -- "throwing the receiver open") instead of waiting to see obvious separation before throwing the ball. Swapping out Stevie Johnson and TJ Graham for Sammy Watkins and Mike Williams has probably boosted his confidence in his receivers as well, as his reliance on TE Scott Chandler as a dump-off target has gone way down (averaging 3.3 catches on 5.1 targets per game last year vs. only 1.0 catches on 1.5 targets per game this year).

Now, this isn't to say that Manuel has reached his potential. I'm only suggesting that we might see tangible evidence that, starting with week 11 last season, the game is slowing down for him and that he "gets it". There is still plenty of room for improvement, but if he's going to have five solid games out of every six, I can definitely live with that. If he continues to play at this level and show further improvement, we will indeed have the franchise QB we've been lacking for a long, long time.

Just another great fan opinion shared on the pages of BuffaloRumblings.com.