FanPost

If We Ran the Zoo, or the Buffalo Rumblings Big Giant Head Takes Over the Team!


After I posted my BROP, I went and read the 30 or so other ones posted by various Rumblings posters. I thought it would be interesting to mash them all together, into one big group think, the wisdom of the crowd- a Buffalo Rumblings Big Giant Head. What does it say about the feelings of fans heading into the free agent season? Which draftees and free agents players are the most coveted, and which current Bills players the least valued? Would the Big Giant Head be able to construct a cohesive roster and stay under the salary cap?

While there are many times the synapses of the Big Giant Head have fired off in opposing directions, ultimately, the majority dictates the direction, and there was a surprising amount of consensus.

"But if I ran the zoo,"/ Said young Gerald McGrew,/ "I'd make a few changes./ That's just what I'd do..." - If I Ran the Zoo

The Bills Front Office

The Big Giant Head is perfectly content with Whaley, Ryan, Thurmond and Roman. This may be the most secure Bills fans have felt about the Bills leadership since the beginnings of the Tom Donahoe and Gregg Williams era, if not John Butler and Wade Phillips.

One caveat from BGH- Russ Brandon is now prohibited from entering the football operations side of OBD, and is restricted to marketing only. Sorry, Russ.

Players Who Will Be Leaving

The Big Giant Head is perfectly fine with the signing of Incognito and the release of Keith Rivers, which puts us in sync with the current Bills payroll of top 51 players at $108.2 million, with an additional draft pool of $3.2 million and $5.9 million in dead money for a total of $117.3 million against a 2015 salary cap of $142 million (or $24.7 million for the good stuff). But enough accounting.

The Big Giant Head releases:

  • G Chris Williams as a post June 1 cut. To say there was a groundswell of support for this move would be an understatement.
  • OL Kraig Urbik. Despite his versatility and being our backup C, the Big Giant Head was firmly in the camp of cutting rather than restructuring Urbik.
  • TE Scott Chandler. While there was a small amount of brain activity suggesting a trade, and some sections of the brain felt he should be kept on the roster, the overall decision of the BGH was to let Chandler go.

Speaking of potential trades, despite his meager salary ($660k) and flashes of occasional upside, the Big Giant Head is disenchanted with Bryce Brown and trades him to anyone willing to give the Bills a 2015 5R draft choice. This would be the definition of selling low, but we must do as the BGH demands.

All told, these moves save the Bills $9.3 million against the cap, increasing our available money to a robust $34 mil.

Restructuring

"Here’s a lesson I tell every agent and player about NFL contracts: Ignore the cap; it is simply an accounting mechanism for the team. Through the loophole of prorated signing bonuses, the NFL’s "soft cap" (think yarmulke) can easily be manipulated and often portrays an inaccurate picture of the team’s player finances. Rather, focus on the cash." Andrew Brandt, mmqb.si.com, 2/25/15

  • Super Mario Williams. Per the Brandt quote above, moves some salary money to bonus money and saves the Bills $5 million off the cap. It's all a shell game...
  • Manny Lawson, DE/LB. May have some uses with the return of the Jets-style defense, and is saved when he agrees to take a $1 million pay cut.

The BGH loves available dollars, and we're now up to a cool $40 million.

Keeping Our Own

Ranked by priority, here's who the Big Giant Head wants to keep (and doesn't want to keep) among the Bills free agents:

  1. Marcus Easley, WR and special teams superstar. $4.2 million over 3 years.
  2. Chris Hogan, WR. The Bills could tender him at the minimum, but BGH offers him a slight bump to a 1 year $830k contract as a reward for his 41-426-4 2014 season.
  3. Jerry Hughes, Edge. Somewhat contentious, as there was synapse activity to both let him walk, as well as try to tag and trade him. But in the end, the BGH was solidly behind a $50 million, 5 year deal. Viva La Sacks!
  4. Jarius Wynn, DE. $2.6 million over 2 years.
  5. Da'Norris Searcy, S. Despite Whaley's public and somewhat pessimistic comments, the Big Giant Head came out in favor retaining Searcy at a cost of $16 million, 4 years.
  6. Corbin Bryant, DT. BGH gives him the ERFA tender.
  7. Jordan Gay, P and kickoff specialist. ERFA tender.
  8. Chris Hairston, T. Didn't see this coming, as Hairston has not been a factor for quite awhile, but BGH wants him back at a $900k, 1 year prove-it contract.
  9. Marcus Thigpen, Kick Returner. Not at the $1.6 million tender, but at a negotiated $900k, 1 year deal.

Unfortunately, there was overwhelming support to not sign and bring back the following players:

  1. C.J. Spiller, RB. Too many missed holes, too many cheap options to replace. We'll always have 2012, though.
  2. Lee Smith, TE. Ryan and Roman probably disagree based on Smith's blocking prowess, but basically, the BGH has had it with the Bills tight ends.
  3. Brandon Spikes, LB. It's not personal, but the BGH does not believe there's a role here for you now.
  4. Larry Dean, LB. Something of a puzzler, since he's cheap and contributes on special teams, but the BGH has spoken.
  5. Stevenson Sylvester, LB. Out of sight, out of mind.
  6. Erik Pears, G. BGH was 100% unanimous on this one, a difficult task for an organism made up of so many diverse cells.

Discounting the ERFA tags which will not make it into the top 51 contracts, those "keep your own signings" take up $19.3 million of our available $40 million, but wait, there's more!

Extensions

With Dareus, Gilmore, Bradham and Glenn all coming up for new contracts in 2016, should the Bills lock up any of them now?

The BGH did not consider Glenn at all, briefly considered but did not support Gilmore and Bradham, but firmly landed on keeping Big Daddy Dareus, at a cost of $88 million over 7 years. Research will likely verify that the Bills will be the proud owner of the most expensive defensive line in NFL history.

There goes another $4.5 million, leaving us with $16 million for free agents.

Free Agents

So I'd open each cage. Unlock every pen/ Let the animals go, and start over again./ And somehow or other, I think I could find/ Some beasts of a much more un-usual kind.- If I Ran the Zoo

Ranked by order of BGH want, here's the Bills shopping list for 2015:

  • Jake Locker, QB. There was support for Matt Moore, Brian Hoyer, Josh McCown and Ryan Mallett, but ultimately this is the QB the BGH wants in a Bills uniform. $7.6 million, 2 years.

"Locker gradually fell out of favor in Tennessee and had some dreadful displays this season but did show some promise in 2012 and 2013. At the start of 2013 in particular he got off to a strong start in the first four weeks (+8.5 passing grade) before a hip injury derailed what looked like a promising season. Any team signing Locker to compete for a starting job will be hoping to re-discover that Jake Locker.- Pro Football Focus.

  • Alex Carrington, DL. Blast from the past on a $2.4 million, 2 year deal to add depth.
  • Jordan Cameron, TE. A lot of internal squabbling and headaches inside the BGH among Cameron, Clay and Julius Thomas (and even some synapses pulling for Jermaine Gresham), but Cameron emerged as the BGH choice du jour. $25 million, 4 year contract.

Much like Thomas, how teams evaluate Cameron will depend on how they weight the value of blocking versus receiving. Despite uncertainty at quarterback in Cleveland, he’s been a productive receiver, catching 80 passes in 2013 and grading positively there in each of the last two seasons. Unfortunately, the same can’t be said for his work on running plays as he compiled a -10.5 grade on 217 run plays last year. Cameron particularly struggled against Khalil Mack in the team’s Week 8 game against the Raiders. Blocking limitations aside, Cameron could be a solid addition to a team’s passing attack, having gained 1.93 Yards per Route Run and 17.7 yards per reception in 2014.- Pro Football Focus.

  • James Carpenter, G. A lot of support for Orlando Franklin, Doug Free and Mike Iupati, but there was not enough money to sign a glamour TE and top level OL, so this selection won out for the BGH. $15 million, 4 year contract.

A first rounder in 2011 Carpenter has struggled in the NFL at both tackle and guard, struggling in pass protection as a rookie at right tackle and surprisingly struggling to impose himself as a run blocker since he moved inside to guard in 2012.

The last two seasons Carpenter has at least earned (marginally) positive grades as a pass protector for Russell Wilson. The team giving Carpenter his next contract will be eager to see more from him as a run blocker as he’s only earned a run block grade of +1.0 or above in two starts over three seasons at left guard.- Pro Football Focus.

  • Virgil Green, TE. Replaces Lee Smith as the blocking TE, but with a lot more upside. $13 million, 4 year deal.

Green is the second Bronco to appear on this list and is coming off of his best regular season (+5.7 overall) since being drafted in 2011. Unlike his teammate, however, his entire grade came from positive run and screen blocking. Last season Green spent almost all of his snaps lined up as an in-line tight end or in the backfield at fullback, running a route on just 22% of his 434 snaps. He caught just seven of his 25 career passes, though gained an average of 7.1 yards after the catch on those plays. Green can probably be had for a bargain and will be just 27 when the season starts. He’s also a good enough athlete to develop into a threat in the passing game to go along with his positive play as a blocker. Even as he ended the season poorly with a -3.9 performance in Denver’s playoff loss, Green will be a player to keep an eye on once free agency starts.- Pro Football Focus

  • Frank Summers, FB. Bring back the fullback on a league minimum deal, although BGH also considered John The Terminator Conner.
  • Mike Pollak, G. Minimum 1 year, prove it contract for offensive line depth, helps to replace Urbik.

At this point the BGH ran out of money (even slightly overspending, but there's always that issue of the shell game with bonus money vs. salary). Other less expensive players the Big Giant Head would consider if cash was available: S Dawan Landry, OL Jah Reid and DL Kendrick Ellis.

The Draft

Coming to draft conclusions for the Big Giant Head is a migraine inducing experience, as individual brain cells champion their own player of choice, or opt not to provide feedback at all. Still, we can assemble a reasonable draft with the most popular and sought after names.

(note: It's hard to pinpoint where any individual player would be drafted, but Draftek.com was used to try to get the best estimate possible)

2R: TE Clive Walford, Miami.

Roman wants tight ends, now he has three of them in Walford, Cameron and Green.

Mayock noted that Miami coaches lined up Walford in a variety of places -- in the slot, out wide and with his hand down as a "normal" tight end -- and said he expected Walford to run a 40-yard dash of around 4.65, which Mayock said would be "tremendous" for a player of his size. (note: Walford ran a disappointing 4.79 at the combine).

3R: QB Garrett Grayson, Colorado State.

Could fall into the 4th round, but the Bills don't have a 4th round pick and need to act here. Won internal BGH fight between Grayson, Bridge, Grayson and Petty. If nothing else, a 2015 QB depth chart of Manuel, Locker and Grayson would be interesting.

"Garrett Grayson from Colorado State is one of those guys that does everything pretty well, no real elite traits," Mayock said Monday on a conference call previewing the NFL Scouting Combine. "I like the kid, and I think he's a strong backup quarterback candidate.

5R: RB David Johnson, Northern Iowa.

Football Outsiders predictive model SpeedScore loves this guy.

"a big guy who doesn't necessarily run like a big guy, but who can be awesome catching the ball. The smaller school gives him sleeper appeal, and he reportedly had a great Senior Bowl week (I wasn't there), but he's an upright runner who may not have the leg drive to bowl people over in the NFL. Nevertheless, running 4.50 at 224 pounds will have scouts taking note."- Christopher Harris, ESPN.

5R (from Tampa): Edge, Lynden Trail, Norfolk State.

Trail is 6-7 and 269 pounds, with arms that measure 34 7/8 inches long. At Norfolk State, he played outside linebacker in a 3-4 but put his hand on the ground when the Spartans wanted to show opponents a four-man defensive front. When their offense neared an opponents’ goal line, coach Pete Adrian would use Trail at tight end. He also served as a gunner on the punt team for two of his three seasons in Norfolk.- Andy Staples, MMQB.com

5R (Bryce Brown trade above): Kaleb Eulls, DT, Mississippi State.

NFL combine snub that offers toughness against the run on the interior line.

He has the build (6-3, 305) that pro clubs want from a defensive tackle, was solid against the run and was a good teammate at Mississippi State- David Ching, ESPN.

6R: Shaquille Mason, C/G, Georgia Tech.

Another combine snub who offers depth at G and at C.

Mason -- whom he jokingly referred to as "a stubby little guard" -- has improved daily in pass-protection drills this week. "He bent his knees and got under people" during those drills, Mayock noted, and said he thought Mason could play center in the NFL.

7R: RB Josh Robinson, Mississippi State.

Bowling ball type runner falls late in draft due to poor combine 40 time of 4.7, turning him from a questionable mid round pick to a value 7th rounder.

He's a Weeble: He wobbles, but he rarely falls down. Is he an NFL feature back? At 5-8, perhaps not. But he's no shrinking violet (he weighs a robust 217 pounds), and his lower-body strength absolutely will translate to the NFL. Some coach is going to get a look at him in a game, and fall in love a little bit.- Christopher Harris, ESPN.

Final Roster

OFFENSE
Quarterbacks Tight Ends Running Backs Fullbacks
EJ Manuel Jordan Cameron Fred Jackson Frank Summers
Jake Locker Virgil Green David Johnson Corey Knox
Garrett Grayson Clive Walford Josh Robinson
Jeff Tuel Chris Gragg Anthony Dixon
MarQuies Gray
Chris Manhertz
Wide Receivers Guards Tackles Centers
Sammy Watkins Richie Incognito Cordy Glenn Eric Wood
Robert Woods James Carpenter Seantrel Henderson Shaq Mason
Chris Hogan Mike Pollak Cyrus Kouandjio
Marquise Goodwin Cyril Richardson
Marcus Easley Cyrus Kouandjio
Marcus Thigpen William Campbell
Deonte Thompson D.J. Morrell
Caleb Holley Alex Kupper
Justin Brown Darryl Johnson
Tobais Palmer
DEFENSE
Ends Defensive Tackles Outside LBs Inside LBs
Mario Williams Kyle Williams Preston Brown Kiko Alonso
Jerry Hughes Marcell Dareus Nigel Bradham Ty Powell
Manny Lawson Stefan Charles Randell Johnson James Gaines
Lynden Trail Corbin Bryant Ty Powell
Jarius Wynn Alex Carrington
Bryan Johnson Kaleb Eulls
Jeremy Towns
Cornerback Strong Safety Free Safety
Stephon Gilmore Da"Norris Searcy Aaron Williams
Leodis McKelvin Duke Williams Jonathan Meeks
Corey Graham Bacarri Rambo Deon Broomfield
Nickell Robey Kenny Ladler
Ron Brooks
Ross Cockrell
Mario Butler
Rod Sweeting
Jonte Green
SPECIAL TEAMS
Kicker Punter Punt Returner Kick Returner
Dan Carpenter Colton Schmidt Marcus Thigpen Marcus Thigpen
Jordan Gay Jordan Gay Fred Jackson Marquise Goodwin
Nickell Robey Sammy Watkins

Summary

So how did the collective brain power of the Buffalo Rumblings Big Giant Head do? Kept the defense intact, adding good quality, young depth. Significant and intriguing upside at QB, TE and RB. Biggest remaining weakness? Probably still one quality OT short. In real life, would probably replace one of those investments at TE in free agency or the draft with an OL, but otherwise, it appears to be a playoff worthy zoo.

Just another great fan opinion shared on the pages of BuffaloRumblings.com.