FanPost

2016 Draft Manifesto - QB edition


Where did the season go wrong?

Coaching

Penalties

Officiating

I acknowledge all of these crippled our 2015 season. But the one mark I can’t get around. The one constant mark since Jimbo. The one mark that fell apart in crucial times: The quarterback.

Say what you will about Tyrod: he played well. He played terrible. He was okay…the one thing nobody can say: He is a savior. His clock management and lethargic nature before halves and at the end of games is excruciating. The Chiefs game. The Monday night game. The Eagles game (aggh—where was he throwing the ball those last two drives?).

Add to the mix that Tyrod has one of the best qb saving offensive coordinators in the game: see Alex Smith’s career and the miracle with Colin Kaepernick. What happens when Roman eventually leaves town and we’re left with the next Nathanial Hackett as a coordinator?

To top it off, our passing numbers and offensive numbers are relatively the same as the Kyle Orton offense from 2014. I think everybody can agree that we have more talent, a better scheme and better play calling on the offensive side of the ball; so how come the numbers are so similar?

I realize Tyrod is in his first year starting, but this is his fifth season in the league. His strengths should be more polished and seasoned. There should be urgency when needed. There should be more seam passes so the safeties can’t double the sideline and Sammy so easily. How about a throw to the middle of the field now and again? He should be able to go through his reads quicker and know how to step up in a pocket (not run, but step up to avoid DE’s that are crashing in. The first NE game is the perfect example of how not to be a pocket qb).

And anyone clamoring that he is more than a bottom tier NFL qb and we should pay him now, don’t you remember the Ryan Fitzpatrick debacle? Rinse, recycle, repeat.

To have such awful end of the game theatrics as well leading a team to the same place that Todd Collins, JP Losman and Rob Johnson have led us previously, leads to one overarching solution: DRAFT A QUARTERBACK IN THE 2016 DRAFT!!!!

And we are in luck, the 2016 Draft QB class is fairly strong. It might not be franchise stud heavy like the 1983 or 2004 crop; but it is quality in numbers like 2012 crop (Russell, Luck, Cousins, Tannehill, Foles).

MY BREAKDOWN RULES

  1. I’m not factoring the Bills trading up (not in the 1st round at least)

  2. We are not picking top 5, so my favorite gets thrown out

  3. We should not overdraft a qb just to draft a qb (thanks but no thanks EJ)

  4. Tyrod will start next season.

  5. We need a Plan B in case I’m right about Tyrod’s shortcomings; ie- he’s not getting any better. If I’m wrong, I’m happy to be wrong. That would mean we’re in the playoffs and I get a day of drunken exuberant bliss. Win-win.

CATEGORY 1: THE TROPHIES: I’m pissed at how bad we are, but at least we aren’t the Browns…. These are players that will definitely be chosen before the Bills pick.

JARED GOFF (California. Junior) – This is the top dog of this quarterbacking class.

Goff defies much of my logic for finding a top quarterback. I generally don’t like spread qbs: his air raid offensive system is just that. I generally don’t like qbs who work solely out of the shotgun: Goff works exclusively out of the shotgun. I generally don’t like qbs who have never led their teams to big records and big games: Goff’s Cal teams are highlighted by an Armed Forces Bowl victory vs. Air Force. I generally don’t like flashy westcoast qb’s who put up large numbers vs suspect defenses: Goff is this….

But as far as future NFL’ers, Goff is the best in this draft class.

CON’S: I’ll start with the con’s because there’s not much that stand out.

  1. Turnover problems: Goff comes from the Farvian tree. He is a gun slinger that will take chances. Plain and simple, at times Goff will attempt the impossible pass. While I don’t think this will grow into a major issue; he’s had some pretty putrid moments.

In 2014 v Northwestern: Goff bobbled a snap, recovered the ball and threw an over-the-shoulder ball to no one as he was being pulled down. That egregious pass was promptly intercepted. And there was absolutely no reason to throw it in the first place. That was a play that a low IQ qb makes, and I don’t consider Goff a low IQ qb.

Then in 2015: Goff threw a game crippling pick six vs USC on a ball that should not have been thrown. He followed that up with a 4 INTS dud performance against Utah..in fact, he threw 13 INTS for the year, which I consider a lot for a qb that will be a top-5 draft choice.

These games and plays matter, but Goff does this when his inner-Brett Farve comes out. Like Farve, he will make one dumb play, but follow it up with 10 great ones.

  1. Played in an ‘Air-raid’ system: As the rule of thumb goes, great college stats from a solely offensive system do not transfer well into the NFL. Many times the spread system hinders a quarterback’s development. And the reason is rather generic and simple: college corners stink. On any given play, with 5 receivers running routes, at least 3 will be wide open. On most completions, the qb will not have to throw with anticipation or in a tight window. They simply throw to a wide open area and let the receiver do the work. There is not much thought involved: throw to a given receiver that is running wide open.

    On top of this, many of these systems utilize wide-receiver screens, which add big chunks of yardage to the numbers. Stats are data --- and with data, as with qb stats – ‘you can make the numbers say whatever you want them to.’

    You do not have to look much further than Robert Griffin. He played at Baylor, and since he’s left, all their quarterbacks have put up similar numbers. They have a plug and play system. When RG III came to the NFL, he was a revelation. His speed mixed with a true quarterback who put up huge passing numbers in college. Unfortunately, that ACL injury cost him a step. And when you can’t outrun your opponent, you need to outgun them. Therefore, he had to rely more on passing. But RG III never developed as a passer. In fact, he regressed so horrifically that he lost his starting job to Kirk Cousins (and I would HATE IT if the Bills ever had to pay a quarterback the caliber of Kirk Cousins $15 million per year). RG III never learned how to: toss a ball into a tight coverage. Read a complex NFL defense. Understand blitz schemes. And he now serves as a cautionary tale that any GM needs to notice.

    Do not be deceived by numbers. Goff threw for 4,800 yards and 43 TDS this season, which does not impress me one bit. You need to look past the numbers to see how he is achieving those numbers. This is when the traits of a future franchise signal caller emerge.

PRO’S: One single obscure pass showed me everything I need to know about Jared Goff and his NFL prospects. In the bowl game vs Air Force, Goff threw a 15 yard back shoulder pass to his 4th best wr (a guy named Harris). The receiver turned suddenly, only to find the ball in a spot, where he and only he, could catch it.

Put simply, college quarterbacks DO NOT throw back-shoulder passes. And trusting this pass to your 4th best receiver. Then to complete it. Wow! That’s a guy who will be able to make plays in the pros.

  1. Footwork and vision: Goff plays strictly out of the shotgun, but he owns his pocket. He slides left and right as necessary. He steps up when the rush collapses and runs when he has to. This guy is not a novice back there. In a way, he reminds me of Mariotta because of their lack of snaps under center. But based on their football IQ and footwork, anyone who knows anything about football, knows they’ll be fine.

    On top of this, his offensive system is not the prototypical spread offense. Goff is trusted to do more than throw simple 5 yard passes to wide open receivers. And he does. Goff does a great job of scanning the field and finding open receivers. He makes all sort of passes: seam routes, in/ outs, slants, deep balls. He goes through progressions. He audibles at line. Goff does it all.

  2. Ball placement: I referenced the back shoulder pass earlier, and that was not an anomaly. Goff has a fantastic touch on ball placement. If he has to underthrow a pass: he will. If the ball has to be over the sideline: it will. If the ball has to be high against tight, press coverage: the ball will be up. The more you watch him, the more you see a quarterback that just knows ball placement.

    And quite frankly, this makes or breaks many NFL quarterbacks. Think about EJ and his struggles. You can trace his inaccuracy and erratic throws back to his FSU days. Does EJ know the proper ball placement on every pass? Hell no! EJ is lucky not skip a ball on a five yard pass, let alone throw a back-shoulder fade with precision... ball placement from most college qbs can be debatable at best: for Goff, the answer is yes. He knows where to place the ball on every throw.

  3. Arm strength: Check. He has an NFL arm. He can make every throw. In fact, he HAS made every NFL throw. I hate when evaluators say he ‘can make every throw.’ My counter becomes ‘Has he?’

And yes, Goff has.

OVERALL ANALYSIS: I’d be shock if he doesn’t turn into a franchise quarterback within 4 years. The guy is good: size, arm, smarts and he even checks that special ‘it’ box, which separates the good ones from the great ones.

Granted, it will take Goff a year or two to understand how to work from center and how NFL defenses move. He will not be a Cam Newton or Andrew Luck by being an instant success; but once he picks it up….and he will pick it up….Goff might be our next…wait for it… NFL Aaron Rodgers.

VERDICT: Worth a top-5 pick. I won’t be surprised if someone trades up to get him.

CEILING: I know people will try to compare the 2 because of the same CAL standing, but he really does have Rodgers potential. I mean, he completed a back-should fade in a college game. NO ONE DOES THAT!

FLOOR: At worst, I can’t see his floor being worse than Matt Ryan.

FINAL TID-BIT: Don’t mess up this guy Cleveland.

PAXTON LYNCH (Memphis. Junior) –Buyer Beware.

I do not make my living as an NFL scout; however, if I did, I’d advise my general manager not to select Paxton Lynch in the 1st round. I’m not saying he will not turn out to be a good quarterback; but he will take time. And in today’s NFL, teams do not have time to waste on a 1st round pick.

Acknowledgement: Lynch came on my radar last year during his bowl game with BYU. I was home, doing nothing, so I put money on Memphis (-2) without knowing a thing about them. And boy was that an entertaining bowl game (a 50 yard FG as time expired and an ensuing brawl). Anyhow, Lynch jumped off the screen and as a result, I’ve followed him a great deal this year. So I’m not some bozo jumping on the Lynch bandwagon mid-way through this season and into draft season.

PROS: Lynch is a large and lanky quarterback who can zing the ball in a pinch. His best attribute is his intermediate throws. The exact throws that Tyrod DOES NOT make.

In his game against Bowling Green, Lynch picked apart their zone by tossing ball after ball into soft gaps. Now, not many were in tight windows like he’ll see in the NFL, but he was still very accurate on these throws and threw them with a good velocity. This area will be his strong suit. If he succeeds in the NFL, it will be because of well he can throw the intermediate passes.

  1. Arm Strength – Lynch has an NFL arm. There is no question about it. He can hit on 15 yard out patterns. He can heave it deep. It’s an NFL ready arm.

CONS: The more I watch Lynch, three items jump out at me:

  1. Footwork – Lynch should seriously think about taking dance lessons because his footwork is terrible. In the pocket, he is constantly moving. Rarely does he set his feet, lock onto a target and deliver a strike. Instead, with Lynch, he is always panicky. It always seems as if he’s waiting for his pocket to collapse.

I know people will argue that this can be corrected with proper coaching; but I’ll always state, footwork is the key to any successful quarterback. (Brady, Marino, Warner). In fact, owning the pocket is my number one trait to becoming a successful NFL qb; without it, the player will fail.

  1. The deep ball or lack-there-of. I’m not saying Lynch can’t hit on bombs or even deeper passes; I’m just not sure. And that is the problem! He rarely throws the ball over 20 yards, which raises red flags.

    I have these same red-flags when it comes to Tyrod and throwing over the middle. Does he not do it per coaches’ instructions due to the turnover liability or does he not do it because he struggles with accuracy to that part of the field? I believe it’s the latter, but no one knows. I have these same rhetorical questions about Lynch and his over 20 yard passes.

Lynch did connect on a pretty flee-flicker play in the same Bowling Green game where he threw a ball that landed in a perfect spot right before the back stripe of the endzone. However, in the games I watched, this was the only one I saw completed. He just doesn’t throw deep; and many times when you don’t as a quarterback, it means you can’t.

  1. Pocket awareness. This is the most concerning part of Lynch to me. Memphis runs a spread offense, many times with five receivers on the field. They implement a plethora of wide receiver screens, where Lynch gets the ball out quick. This is fine for the college game.

But when any sort of pressure comes, those feet get squirrely. His qb radar gets ancy. His accuracy and vision become null and void. Lynch made almost no plays when any sort of pressure got near him. If anyone recalls Bryce Petty from last year; he did the same thing and was a main reason that he did not go until the 4th round. Under pressure, the decision making ends.

The Temple game, which was his worst by far (before the Auburn bowl game), was a direct result of this pressure. Temple did not bring the heat every play; but they brought it early, and made Lynch think about it the rest of the day. Lynch only had a limited number of quality throws in the entire game.

The Houston game is another example, especially in the 2nd half when Houston made a huge comeback. When Houston got near Lynch, Memphis produced next to nothing on offense. And this pressure set up a 4th quarter interception where Lynch completely missed a linebacker dropping to the hash; a zone blitz type of play. It was a bad pass on a coverage that the NFL loves. That is a bad combination.

TID-BIT: I wrote up Lynch before the bowl game against Auburn…. That game pretty much solidified all my previous concerns, and I would not be shocked if he dropped to 3rd quarterback chosen (behind Goff and Wentz).

OVERALL ANALYSIS: The correlation of pressure to making plays is a necessary trait in the NFL. Jared Goff has it. That is what makes him such a quality prospect. Lynch did not show it. Mix in his already shaky footwork, and it will take an above average quarterbacks coach to make Lynch a high flying NFL qb worthy of the top-15 selection that he’ll be in April.

VERDICT: Top 15 is simply too high for him. Now he may pan out (the 7-15 crop with an outside shot at a Superbowl someday), but I wouldn’t be surprised if his career plays out like Blaine Gabbert (another qb who went way higher than he should have).

Ceiling: Drew Bledsoe.

Floor: Blaine Gabbert

CATEGORY 2: THE SOME TEAM WILL GIVE UP PICKS TO MOVE UP GROUP: Let’s trade up in the first round to grab a guy.

CARSON WENTZ (Senior. North Dakota State) - The fastest riser on every draft board. Nobody wants to miss out on selecting the next Joe Flacco FCS clone; but can he be as good as Joe Flacco? That’s the million dollar question.

Acknowledgment: Incidentally, Carson Wentz and Paxton Lynch are very comparable: build, arm strength, weaknesses. And seeing how both are highly regarded, I’m going to compare them where I can.

PRO’S:

  1. Big arm/ Big Build: Wentz stands 6’5" and can zing it. Lynch is 6’6" and can zing it. Both can make any NFL throw that a team would require.

  2. Intermediate Accuracy – Wentz’s offense is predicated on completing the intermediate (10-20 yard) passes. And Wentz does not back down from these throws. In fact, his intermediate accuracy is similar to what you’d see from Flacco or for that matter, Lynch.

Wentz will get flack for playing at the FCS level, so people question the competition level (I get to this more later on); however, in his Junior year (I guess it was his 4th season Junior year), North Dakota State whooped up on Iowa State in Ames; Iowa State being a decent D-1 team from a major conference. While Wentz wasn’t Aaron Rodgers out there, he played under control and did what was needed as the Bison rolled 34-14. Wentz went 18-28 for 210 yards. Nothing flashy, but this was the first game of the year.

He threw a bunch of effortless 10 yard passes that moved the chains. That’s what the coaches asked Wentz to do and he did it with no issue.

  1. Improved Ball Placement – Going through a few of the games ranging from his 4th year to his 5th year, the one thing that jumps out is his development at placing passes where only his receivers can get to them. This is an NFL trait: ball placement matters. I saw a tweet from Mike Mayock where he showcased Wentz and his ball placement from the game v Northern Iowa. Wentz threw a sideline rope, right over the top of defender where only his receiver could catch it. It truly was an outstanding pass and one that is only completed because he knew where to throw it.

Ball placement is an area where I still question Tyrod. Again, with many things, the verdict is still out. Tyrod didn’t show many passes that were thrown where only his receiver could make a play. In fact, the only one that jumps out to my brain is the Watkins deep ball in KC where he heaved it up where Watkins could get it. But this isn’t really ball placement, so much as a deep shot. I’m talking more about a pass where, despite perfect defense, the ball ends up in a tight window and exact spot where only our receiver can make a play, generally for a first down.

CONS:

  1. Rattled Under Pressure – This is a category where both Lynch and Wentz tie, and not in a good way. This tie is like debating between the better movie: The Dark Night Rises or Transformers 4.

Much like Lynch, when the pressure comes, Wentz’s feet get ancy. For the most part, he’s willing to stand strong in the pocket, but in that scenario both his decision making and accuracy drop dramatically.

And again, like Lynch, this might become Wentz’s fatal flaw. There will be pressure in the NFL. It will happen. But as a quarterback, you can’t let the pressure ruin your decisions. And yes, this is something that can improve with experience, but it’s also something that may not. Nobody knows.

Take the man who Wentz owes his 1st round grade to, Joe Flacco. Now, it’s not fool proof and Flacco still makes his fair share of mistakes; but more times than not, Flacco’s decision making doesn’t waver. Pressure comes, he sees it and stands strong, delivering accurate and intelligent passes. Can Wentz learn to be smart when the blitz comes; sure. But right now he has a propensity for mistakes, and if I were a d-coordinator playing against Wentz or Lynch, I’d blitz them on every single play because I’m not sure they’d ever burn me for it.

  1. Superior Team – North Dakota State trampled Iowa State. That’s about all you need to know to realize that they are a supremely talent FCS team. Are Wentz’s offensive players better? Yes. Are his coaches better than his opponents? Yes. Is his team better? Yes.

    So when Wentz got hurt in a loss to South Dakota, did his team miss a beat? No, not really. In fact, they had 2 losses and 1 close call with Wentz at the helm to start the season. With the back-up in, they were 6 and 0.

    It may not be fair to judge a player this way, but take Goff out of Cal’s lineup or Lynch out of Memphis’ or Cardale from OSU, wait nevermind… my point being, will those teams struggle? In the case of Goff or Lynch, most definitely. In the case of Wentz, not really.

    Now is this the be-all, end-all in terms of judging how successful a quarterback can be? No. But when you play basketball with LeBron James, you just look better. Ask Matthew Deladova. When you play wide-receiver for Aaron Rodgers, your stats are just better. Ask Jeff Janis about what Aaron Rodgers means to his career. Or Big Ben – see Mike Wallace post Big Ben.

    Again, this isn’t a huge knock, but it does raise questions to me if this guy is truly a difference maker as a quarterback or just an average player who ‘looks’ the part. He will be a 1st round pick, but is he a true difference maker?

    OVERALL ANALYSIS: Wentz’s stock is rising because of the intrigue. Teams and GM’s love capturing lightning in a bottle. An unknown draft pick who turns into the next Joe Flacco, earning you a Superbowl ring and a lifetime contract. The problem here is, Wentz is not as polished as Flacco.

    Can he come close?

    Sure, if the cards fall correctly.

    Now I started Wentz’s write-up comparing him to Paxton Lynch. Who is the better prospect? While neither is fool-proof, and I do not think either deserves to be chosen in the top-15, I would say Wentz might be the better player. He has shown the ability to throw precise passes in tighter windows. He has grown as a passer, especially in the important ‘touch’ category. If he continues progressing, I believe he has the higher upside.

    VERDICT: Wentz will be over-drafted and a 1st round pick. Now, if he was a 2nd rounder, with time to develop; I’d say pick him, all day! As a 1st rounder, with huge expectations, he might turn into an EJ Manuel type of unfulfilled potential. At best, he turns into a top 10-15 quarterback (I don’t think he’s ever going to be a top-10 signal caller), who can win a Superbowl if the chips fall right…ie, Joe Flacco’s contract year.

    Ceiling: Joe Flacco

    Floor: Garrett Greyson (an obscure 3rd round pick of the Saints in 2015 draft)

CATEGORY 3: THE NFL READY…. BUT….: If the draft breaks right, these guys might be had later than originally projected; but are they worth it?

CONNOR COOK (Michigan State. Senior)

For the most part, Cook looks great on film. Most of the time he is poised in the pocket and makes the proper reads. Honestly, at times Cook looks to me like he should be a top-10 pick. And then….

Acknowledgment: I was extremely high on Cook last year. I thought he was foolish to return to school because he most likely would have been a top 10 pick. At the very least, he would have joined the Mariotta/ Winston conversation and been the 3rd quarterback selected in the 1st round…Cook returned to school, and I’ve since soured on him.

PROS: A few things jump out.

  1. Progressions: Cook does a great job of rattling through progressions. Many times on film he checks left (or right), scans the field and ends up throwing to the opposite side. This is definitely an NFL trait. He is not a one-read qb.

    And truth be told, this is a pretty big deal. To have an understanding on progressions is not quite as simple as scouts make you believe. When I hear ‘He has all the skills, but will need time to understand the game,’ I absolutely cringe. If the draft eligible quarterback doesn’t understand there are several routes on every play by the time they are done with college (conceivably after playing quarterback their whole life), what makes anyone believe they will ever learn it?

    I will take understanding the progression tree over almost any trait (I do prefer footwork, but this might be 1a).

  2. Throws with anticipation – Since Cook plays in a pro-style offense at Michigan State, he does not have the same luxury as many college qb’s. Cook is forced to do more with less. And he does this by throwing with anticipation, into tight windows no less. He will throw the ball to a boundary. He will throw the ball before a receiver breaks. These are things that any successful NFL qb needs to be able to do.

However, sometimes Cook’s anticipation becomes a fault.. most recently, the Alabama game. Just before halftime in a 14 point game, Cook made 2 outstanding throws. I mean, 2 NFL ready throws. But then, on a 1st and 10, inside the 15 with the clock under 30 seconds, Cook tried to a force a ball to a receiver who was well covered in the endzone. I believe he thought the receiver was going to stop and shield, but the receiver kept going; and the result was a horrendous, game-killing INT.

Now, I like that he threw the ball anticipating something, but in that situation, being a Senior, he needed to know better.

  1. Can make all the throws – While Cook does not possess a laser, he certainly has the ability to make any throw you’d want. Most times his accuracy is excellent and he gives his receivers chances to make plays. His arm reminds me a little of Fitz-y. It’s not great, but it’s serviceable.

CONS:

  1. Questionable Decisions: While 98% of the time, Cook reads the field well and makes the correct throw, the other 2% is what scares me. I highlighted the Alabama INT above. But this type of decision was not a solo incident.

    In his bowl game against Baylor from 2014, he made an even more egregious INT. Throwing a ball into a crowd for no reason while being sacked. It was the kind of decision that can cost the team a game (in truth, from that point onward, he was brilliant). In the Oregon game this year he had several close calls.

Cook is not perfect. This area can definitely be improved as all college qb’s make mistakes; but this is a concern.

  1. Leadership – I can’t figure out why a returning Senior and the star quarterback is not elected as the captain of the team. I’ve read many scouts questioning the same thing. It doesn’t add up.

Is he not a leader? Do players not feel inspired by him? Does he do under the radar things that annoy guys? Because in the NFL, if the quarterback isn’t your leader, you have problems (ie, the Bills since Jim Kelly). And a returning star Senior who is not voted the captain is a problem. There is no other way to slice it. This is a huge red-flag.

  1. Late game heroics: I know how he played in 2014 to lead Michigan State to the victory against Baylor in the Cotton Bowl. And yes, he led the final drive against Iowa. But for this game to be so close in the first place is a question mark. Look what Stanford did to Iowa. So, I’ll give a mini-pass.

The game I want to key on is the Michigan game. The end of that game set up well for Cook to lead a final winning drive or at least a tying drive. He moved the ball to past mid-field. And then… Cook worried me. A lot. He made Tyrod Taylor non-clutch decisions. He threw a ball into triple coverage. He took a terrible sack where he needed to throw the ball away. Then on 4th down he heaved a ball to no one in particular. He exuded no confidence whatsoever that he was the guy who was going to get the job done.

And many might argue that this is being too harsh. That it’s not his fault.

It is.

I always blame tough losses on the quarterback if they are the ones who can’t produce the points when it matters most…I’m sick of Buffalo having quarterbacks who can’t raise the team up and lead us to that final score.

Remember what Tom Brady did in that Giants game this year? Or what Aaron Rodgers did in the playoof game?

I want that. This is what separates top-15 quarterbacks from scrub quarterbacks. This is what drives the decision if a quarterback can be ‘the one’….can he lead you to that final score? Can he move the ball when it matters most?

This is huge concern for Tyrod. I believe we lost 6 games by less than 8 points. And in many of those games it was a stagnant offense late that cost us.

I’m not sure Connor Cook has it in him to will the team to a victory.

OVERALL ANALYSIS: Cook has all the traits, but he doesn’t possess that ‘IT Factor’ that separates the average to below average quarterbacks from the average to above average quarterbacks. I wouldn’t mind him as a 2nd rounder, but my gut tells me there are better options to choose from.

VERDICT: 2nd round pick. The guy has 1st round talent, so if we choose him at 50 because my top choice is gone, I can certainly buy-in. But if we choose Cook over my pick, I won’t be loving it.

CEILING: Kirk Cousins 2015.

FLOOR: Kirk Cousins from 2012-2014.

CHRISTIAN HACKENBURG (Junior. Penn State)

Probably the most polarizing quarterback in the class. Most either love him as a prospect or hate him; with hardly anyone floating in the middle.

Acknowledgment: I attended the Bengals/ Bills game week 6. This was a game EJ played in while Tyrod was hurt. After we lost, and in my drunken stupor that every Bills fan knows, I was yelling at the top of my lungs that ‘The Bills should draft Hackenburg!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Take him!!!!!!!!!!! Hackenburg will be our savior!!!!!!!!!!!’

My tune has changed.

PROS:

  1. Short / underneath accuracy: There is no question that Hackenburg has an NFL delivery and arm. And on the easier underneath patterns, Hackenburg uses this very, very well. In fact, after watching several games from him, I can’t help but think he would have been a tremendous Spread-system quarterback.

For instance, if Hackenburg traded places with Paxton Lynch, I think Hackenburg would have made Memphis better and put up even BETTER numbers. I wholeheartedly mean that.

Hackenburg is at his best when tasked with hitting passes to receivers less than 10 yards from the line of scrimmage and moving. He’s the best in the draft class at it. And now give him a spread system, I can imagine Hackenburg having a 70% completion percentage, 5000 yards and 50 TDS….however, we will never know.

In this respect, Hackenburg checks one of the many Tom Brady quality boxes. Brady is the best all-time at throwing underneath. That’s Brady’s art form; and it prevents him from taking tons of hits. Hackenburg is not Tom Brady, but if you combine him with a smart offensive coordinator who uses him like Brady, Hackenburg has a strong chance to succeed.

  1. Drop Back / Head Up: Since Hackenburg plays in a pro-style system, one thing he is forced to do is take snaps under center and go through his reads while dropping. He is excellent at keeping his eyes up while doing this. And keeping your head up is extremely important because in the NFL you need to see everything: Is the DT coming? Where are the linebackers headed? Are the safeties doubling the outside or covering the middle of the field? And you must process this within your first 3 steps of your drop and then use the last few steps to decide where to go with the ball.

    Now, I can’t guarantee that Hackenburg is processing all this at once; but he ‘looks’ like he is…

  2. Reading progressions: Hackenburg had an awful time at Penn State with his offensive line (I’ll get to this later), but when that line did give him time, Hackenburg knows how to rip through his progressions. This is a huge advantage over any qb coming out who played in a spread or a one-read system. It’s not easy to learn this trait on a pro-field. Things happen much faster. When you’re taught progression trees in college, and you practice them in college, you understand how progressions develop and where your reads are on every play.

    One of the reasons, just behind talent, that Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariotta went one and two last year was both quarterbacks did this in college. Believe it or not, despite playing in a spread system, Marriota did this quite a bit. He would read the field, look to a few different options and if they were covered, he’d run. Therefore, when he had to make the adjustment to a normal NFL system, it worked out much better than expected. I feel bad for quarterbacks who want to play in the pro’s, yet were never tasked with learning or using progressions in college.

CONS:

  1. Deep ball accuracy: Hackenburg is great on short balls, but once it turns into a longer ball; that precise accuracy disappears. With the pedigree of this player, I would believe this can be improved at the pro level.

  2. Too quick to check-down: Almost any time Hackenburg scanned the field, he quickly dumped the ball off. I’m not sure if it’s because no one was open or he was trying to keep his INT numbers down by throwing simpler passes; but the frequent amount of check downs in college concerns me. If he is doing it now, why won’t he join the captain Trent-Down squad of checkdown all-stars, which is currently headed by Teddy Bridgewater.?

    I can’t fathom watching another check-down quarterback take years from my life. This is why I was ecstatic when Cassel did not win the starting job. My goodness, it’s excruciating just thinking about Trent Edwards and Matt Cassel..moving on.

  3. THE MOST CONCERNING: The ‘IT’ FACTOR: Every NFL quarterback is ultra-talented. These guys have been slinging a ball their entire lives. They’ve starred in high school. Developed in college. And have been coached up in the NFL.

    That said, there is a clear divide between the top 15 NFL qbs, all of which could win a Superbowl if things break right: Thomas, Benjamin, Joeesph, The Andrews, Peyton, Phillip, Alexander, Anthony, Eli, Aaron, Cameron, Matthew (not Stafford), Russell, Carson…and the bottom 17 NFL qbs, none of which can win a Superbowl (although the jury is still out on a few of the younger guys: Mariotta, Carr, Bortles, Winston). And for the record, Tyrod is in the bottom 17 list.

    What is the defining characteristic that separates the good from the bad? I always go with ‘It’..Russel Wilson, while talented, has ‘it’. In fact, all the top guys have ‘IT!’ They win games they shouldn’t win. They make comebacks when they’ve played terribly all game. They give their fans hope at all times even under dire, blow-out conditions. They always seem to rise up in the moment.

    Much like Connor Cook, I’m not sure if Christian Hackenburg has ‘it.’

    Why do I say that?

    I’ll start off by acknowledging that the Penn State offensive line isn’t even remotely close to average. But if you are reading this, you should check-out how Hackenburg handles himself after being sacked. It’s brutal. Many times he ‘death-fucks’ the lineman who just got beat. He almost single handedly points them out as if he is so much better than them and how dare they give up a sack. It’s bizarre really. Not even Tommy "f-U" does that.

    Imagine if Tyrod glared down Incognito in that Philly game? Might that have been a second bullying scandal?

    If this type of action happened once in a while, I get it. You want to win. You want your line to be better. It’s in the heat of the moment. It could be motivation…but it seems to happen all the time with Hackenburg. He is constantly glaring down, shaking his head at his offensive line, as if they are below his caste.

    What makes it worse is, it’s not always his lines fault. There are times when he holds the ball forever. There are other times that he simply doesn’t take a quick step up in the pocket. But he handles himself just the same; someone else is at fault.

    Body language is everything; just ask Jay Cutler. And truth be told, Jay Cutler might be the best comparison I have for Hackenburg. Both players have more than enough talent to be in that top-15 range; but two guys that most likely will never sniff it. No one wants to play for a quarterback that doesn’t have your back. No one wants to play for a quarterback who would throw you under the bus.

    OVERALL ANALYSIS: This is an NFL level talent that I’m not sure has the leadership needed to be a successful NFL quarterback. That’s all there is to it.

    VERDICT: Late 1st – early 2nd. If Hackenburg becomes a top-10 signal callers on Sunday’s I wouldn’t be surprised. However, I don’t think he has what it takes to lead men on the field. And I know he is not blue-collar enough to be a leader Buffalo will embrace.

    Ceiling: Matt Stafford. If he puts everything together and stops blaming others for his troubles. Could Hackenburg get you to a championship? Sure. Will he?..has Matt Stafford?

    Floor: Cutler during the Cavaleri era, after the Steven break-up. No thanks.

CATEGORY 4: THE 80 YARD GROUP: You want a strong arm without being NFL ready, sure.

CARDALE JONES (Ohio State. Junior) – My beloved Twelve-Guage. My favorite player… to bash.

Acknowledgment: I lost A LOT of money last year betting against Ohio State in the NCAA playoffs. Like, I’m mad thinking about the burned potential vacation money. And you know what, do I blame Jones for costing me a ton? NOOOOOOO. I blame Ezekiel Elliott and the OSU offensive line. That should tell everyone how impressed I was with his ‘magical’ run last year.

Acknowledgment 2: He made the stupidest mistake I’ve ever seen any of these guys make: going back to school when there was only 3 games of film. 3 impressive games of film. Jones was misadvised. He should have entered the draft and refused to do private workouts or attend the combine. I guarantee a team would have traded into the 1st round to select the enigma. There would have been so much mystery, a team would have. But no, he went back to school and showed nothing! Sigh, Twelve Guage….

PRO’S:

  1. Arm Strength – Best arm in the draft. Hands down, the best arm. He could challenge JaMarcus to a throw off and handle himself nicely.

  2. Size – He’s the size of a linebacker.

CON’S:

  1. Processing Time – Really, I could make my argument against Cardale here, and just end it. No coach and I mean no coach ever: Bellichk, Walsh, Lombardi, NO ONE will be able to help Cardale process fast enough to be an NFL qb. If anyone believes that EJ cannot see the field; EJ is twice as good at it as Cardale is. You can literally watch him snap the ball and process his options; the problem: I don’t think he knows his options. The cliché deer in headlights applies. And this is against college defenses…my goodness, what will happen in the NFL? I can’t wait to watch it, as long as it isn’t on the Bills.

    I can prove my point on one play.

    ONE PLAY—

    Against Maryland that showcases everything you need to know about Twelve-Guage. It was the 2nd play of the game. A fake zone read play. Cardale is looking right immediately, trying to watch his receiver that must have been his only read. Even as he is faking the handoff he stares right. Once he fakes the handoff, I honestly think he forgets that players on the other team might, just maybe, be trying to sack him. Jones literally hops on his feet continuing to look right without paying any attention to the rushers. Finally he realizes that whoever his option was is not open and he picks up his head to run, only to find a defender hitting him.

    This play is so bad. I can’t even begin to explain how bad it is…nobody who does this stuff will ever, I mean ever, be able to play in the NFL. Period. Point blank. End of discussion!

  2. Rawness – I hate the term ‘raw’ when it comes to a potential NFL quarterback. No qb guru can turn a ‘raw’ qb into an NFL star. None. The only one who might come close, going to stardom from rawness, is Steve McNair.

    Air McNair played at Alcorn State in the SWAC. He played in an air-it-out system against subpar competition. When he was selected 3rd overall, it took him time to learn the NFL. Eventually he overcame his ‘rawness’ to become an above average player.

    I mention this because I want to be clear, Twelve Guage is NOT Steve McNair.

    McNair was a top notch athlete. He turned down a scholarship to the U of Florida because they wanted him to be a running back. McNair wanted to be a quarterback, so he had to accept playing at a lower level to prove himself. McNair showed he could dominate. And by dominate, I remember paying $4.95 to watch him play a college game (this was when they had college games on Pay-Per-View). Cardale is nowhere near dominate….

    The next point, McNair had to learn the craft playing at 1-AA school with subpar coaching (most likely. I definitely can’t prove it, but I think if they were quality coaches they’d be at the 1-A level making more money). Cardale has spent 4 years at Ohio State. Ohio State is one of the best programs in the nation (I hate to admit this). He has the best of the best in terms of tutelage. Playing under Urban Myer is a gift in itself. I’m sure he is constantly told about nuisances of the position, what to look for, how to read a defense. He practices against quality talent, so on a daily basis, the quarterback position should get easier.

    Anyone who watched Jones this year knows it didn’t get easier. He struggled. And he struggled in games where OSU had the supreme talent against lower-level competition….Hawaii, Northern Illinois, Maryland.

    And if you think about ‘raw’ quarterbacks and how many develop into franchise signal callers: name me 3 raw qbs who did anything at the pro level?

    Point 3 – The guy is 23 years old. 23?????? If he is still confused now, at the college level, when he is already older than most graduate transfers, what is going to happen in the pro’s? Will a team actually give him 5 years to grow into a quarterback who MIGHT be able to learn a playbook….please…

    A quarterback needs to be smart….could Cardale pass a Regent’s exam? I’m guessing Twelve-Guage is more of a non-Regent’s guy.

  3. Dual Threat – This one annoys me - people saying Cardale can be a dual-threat qb. NO WAY IN HELL!!!!

I’ll start by asking this, is Big Ben a dual threat qb? Because if Big Ben is, then Cardale might be.

I’ve seen many analysts claim that Cardale can be the new age qb that teams covet. The type that can run the read option, and also be able to throw it. Cam Newton is the perfect example of a prototypical dual threat NFL quarterback. Cam’s MVP season has been incredible. He zings the ball through the air, but he’s also run over linebackers, defensive ends, safeties. Watch the play from week 16 against the Falcons that exemplifies just how tough Cam is to bring down. And Cardale and Cam are roughly the same size: Cardale 250. Cam 245…

Well Cam ran a 4.58 at the combine. Now that is remarkable for a guy of his size. He actually outran Tyrod in the same 2011 combine (Tyrod ran a 4.59). Now that is a dual threat and why Cam can do both successfully…

Cardale might – he may --- break a 4.8. For comparison sakes, Big Ben ran a 4.75 at the NFL combine. Cardale and Big Ben are also similar in stature and have a similar amount of athleticism. I’m pretty sure this showcases a dual threat qb from a qb who has to be a straight drop back guy.

Now, can Cardale be a qb who runs for a first down now and again? Sure. All qbs can do that. Jim Kelly did that and he’s not dual threat. But is he going to be a qb you need to spy on every play. No way!

OVERALL ANALYSIS: I could go on and on about pocket presence and throwing with anticipation or tossing into tight windows or struggling to lead the most talented team in the nation or getting benched for JT Barrett—he lost the job to his own team for Christ’s sakes.

Watch that play against Maryland. 2nd play of the game. And I retort, "Nothing left to see here."

VERDICT: Undraftable.

Ceiling: JaMarcus Russell on draft night.

Floor: JaMarcus Russell on Sizz-ir-rup and behind bars

JACOBY BRISSETT (NC State. Senior) – Can you turn a hoe into a housewife? Can you turn a project into an NFL starting qb?

Acknowledgment: Living in North Carolina, I get to see Brissett and the Wolfpack nearly every weekend. Do I watch their games; sure don’t. But as I’ve seen Brissett’s name come up among potential quarterbacks taken in the draft, I began to watch more and more of him. Which led me to watching the entire UNC/ NC State game on November 28th.

PROS:

1. Cannon for an arm. I will not question his NFL ready arm. But I refuse to use the same logic Doug Whaley.. cough, cough, I mean Buddy Nix. Cough.. and Doug Marrone did when selecting EJ – ignore game film and draft him for his arm. 70 yards in 20 mph winds during a March rain storm-- let’s draft him 16th. Oh such a legendary tale.

In the game vs. Eastern Kentucky, Brissett threw a few sideline out patterns that were ropes and spot on. They were NFL type throws. There is no question there.

2.Size and Athleticism – Again, Brissett has the physical tools you’d want in an ideal quarterback.

CONS: Did I mention he is more raw than EJ was when we drafted EJ?

  1. Foot work. This has already been addressed with other players, but Brisset rarely settles his feet in the pocket. It’s bad. Like, really, really bad.

  2. Pocket awareness. This sort of goes hand in hand with the foot work, but Brisett is really bad at stepping up in the pocket. There were a few instances where he took his five or seven step drop, settled in and took a sack because he did not shuffle up a pace or two. Think of Tyrod against the Patriots where processing is taking way too long and the DE’s are being pushed up the field. All it takes is a quick step or two to avoid the sack. But in that Pats game, Tyrod took 8 sacks and many were avoidable. This is something I’m not sure Tyrod will ever shake either. You either do it or you don’t.

Anyway, I counted Brisset not stepping up 5 times in the Va Tech game alone where he took unnecessary hits. And I need to stress, sometimes it is better to climb the pocket, rather than take off and run. In a few other games, the pressure would come and Brisett would take off, trying to run instead a sliding up and making a throw.

  1. The deep ball. Brisset tries to throw deep. But his accuracy is horrendous. In a lot of ways, Brisset and EJ are nearly identical; this was another. How many times have we watched EJ overthrow an open receiver by 10 yards? 10. 15 times….well Brisset is just as bad. Sure he has the arm, but the touch from the arm is not there. And I believe this is one thing everybody learned from EJ: YOU CANNOT TEACH ACCURACY!

  2. One read. One throw. Run. Jacoby Brisset has been taught and trained in the Vince Young School of teaching young quarterbacks how not to help their pro chances. I’m not saying he will not learn, or cannot figure out how to go through progressions; I’m saying, in college, he did not. It was one read, not there, run. And Brisset ran quite a bit.

Teaching quarterbacks how to go through progressions takes time, effort and is definitely not a fool proof task. Reading defenses and knowing where to go with the ball is something that truly separates the greats from the hacks. However, the more times you can go through progressions, the easier it gets. When a coach hampers this by telling you one read, and run, they do more harm than good. In the NFL, if you can’t read a defense and don’t know how to go through a few route options, you’re as good as a wasted draft pick.

  1. Guides his throws instead of throwing. The way Brissett throws is also a concern to me: it’s more of a guiding, hoping to hit a target type of toss. You can almost see him think about how he needs to guide the ball to a spot. There’s a difference between watching Aaron Rodgers smooth delivery to watching Colin Kaepernick try to fit the ball into a tight spot. And Brisset is way more of Kaepernick in terms of throwing than he is to a Rodgers.

    Think about the best dart players in your local water-holes. They are just smooth and efficient with their tosses. Triple after triple. Now think about the shitty-to below shitty ones who try their damdest to hit the mark; much of the time with little success.

    Brissett is the guy trying so hard to hit the mark that it’s unnatural.

OVERALL ANALYSIS: I’ve seen this type of prospect many times in past draft classes. Vince Young was the best version of it. He went fourth because of a huge National Title Game performance. Jacoby Brisset is nowhere near as good as Young was at the college level, and I don’t see him ever being a better NFL quarterback than Young was at the NFL level.

VERDICT: Undraftable. Not another project qb that won’t go anywhere. How about signing Josh Johnson again if they really consider drafting Brissett.

Ceiling: Vince Young

Floor: Below EJ

CATEGORY 5: I’ve seen mockers on the Bills site mention, so I’ll address…

Dak Prescott (Senior. Mississsippi) – I’m not going to waste much time writing about the prospects of Prescott as an NFL qb.

The reason: He is the black Tim Tebow. Yep, I said it. He has some physical tools you want. He can run a bit. He can lead a team. But he does not have an NFL arm. In fact, he has nowhere near an NFL arm. If the Bills wanted to waste a draft pick on Prescott, I suggest they just sign Tebow off the Free Agent list. Sure, Tebow would bring tons of unwanted attention; but at least the Bills wouldn’t waste a draft choice.

Verdict: His name should not come up as an option at all.

CEILING: Tebow

Floor: Tebow

THE PICK

KEVIN HOGAN (Stanford. Senior) – I’m sick of developmental quarterbacks. Let’s take one who can play now. One with a winning pedigree. One who has played big games on the big stage.

Acknowledgment: I am a big fan of Kevin Hogan. If he had declared last year; I wanted him as a 4th or 5th round pick. Unfortunately, he went back to school, re-tooled and will now be a 2nd or 3rd round pick (but I do not see him escaping the 2nd round and I could certainly see him sneaking into the 1st).

CONS: (For him, I will start with the flaws) Hogan is far from perfect. He’s had his moments and games where I even question the player. But many of his flaws are quite correctable and his positives certainly overshadow the negatives.

  1. Throwing motion. The first thing everyone will bring up with Hogan is his delivery and release point. You cannot deny that he doesn’t have a typical, over-the-top NFL delivery. His throwing motion is identical to Phillip Rivers. And naturally most people compare the two quarterbacks because of this standard.

    I went back and watched some of Phillip Rivers at NC State, and I will say this, at this point, Kevin Hogan at Stanford is not as good as Phillip Rivers was at NC State. This is not to say that Kevin Hogan can never become what Phillip Rivers is in the pro’s (I believe Hogan can be a lot like Phillip Rivers), but based on their college resume, Hogan is not there yet. And for those of you who do not know, Phillip Rivers was lights out at NC State. His college footage is overwhelming. Rivers had so much precision and accuracy, his teammates could not help but to benefit (but his team only went 8-5 in his final season and 33-16 in his career. More on this later).

    If Kevin Hogan was the size of Tyrod, I would certainly worry about the throwing motion. But Hogan is listed a 6’ 4" which is plenty large to see and throw over the line, even with a lower than wanted delivery point.

    On top of this, people will say his wind-up motion is too slow. It is. But if you suggest he will flop because of his wind-up speed, I’ll vehemently disagree.

    To be a successful quarterback in the NFL you need a mix of things: brains, arm, accuracy, footwork.

    Wind up speed is not a be all-end all to be a successful NFL qb.

    Can it be sped up? Sure.

    Will it? I’m confident it won’t be as big an issue as some people might try to make it out to be. I’ll compare this to knocking Russell Wilson because of his ‘height.’ If you want to nit-pick the wind-up, okay; but it might be really foolish.

  2. Missing easy throws. Sailing balls. I’m not sure why, but at random times, Hogan seemingly overshoots open receivers. While I believe the delivery issue is overhyped, this is my most pressing concern with Hogan: his sailing of passes will need to be corrected. The disconcerting part is, it does not happen from being rushed or pressured. If it happened because of pressure, it’d make more sense. The ball-sailing seems to happen at random points. And in the NFL, if this issue is not corrected, these passes will lead to turnovers. And if there is one thing a quarterback needs to avoid, especially a young one, it is throwing interceptions.

If Hogan does not succeed, this will be his downfall. This is the one area that needs to be cleaned up.

  1. Arm strength. This might be the most overrated NFL category there is. Ej had a cannon. JaMarcus had a cannon. Chad Pennington could barely throw over 30 yards. Fitz-magic lobs balls. Now rank this list of quarterbacks.

Granted, you’d like a quarterback who can sling it and also understand the progression chart. This is why Aaron Rodgers is so coveted. He does both. John Elway did both. Brett Farve did both… but not possessing the strongest arm is not like a running back churning out a 5.0 40-yard dash. It helps to have a cannon to fit the ball into tight windows; but if you can anticipate throws and understand the defense, then you can certainly overcome this limitation. Heck, Peyton did this for 2 years, setting records in the process, before his noodle simply got cooked.

And I’ll say, Hogan has a mediocre arm. It’s not Matt Stafford. But he’s no Chad Pennington either. It’s average. It’s Tyrod Taylor good. And that should be fine.

PROS: You can’t convince me that Hogan doesn’t possess key NFL attributes that make for long-term careers under-center.

  1. Footwork. Hogan’s feet inside the pocket are tremendous. I referenced many times about climbing the pocket: One simple slide to avoid the outside rushing DE, while keeping your eyes up field going through progressions. Kevin Hogan does this better than any quarterback in this draft class. His footwork is NFL ready and it’s not even close.

And when I talk about the subtle slide, I’ll reference Tom Brady and Kevin Hogan in the same breath. Brady moves left and right, just enough to get a ball out without losing costly yardage. Brady steps up at the right time. Brady moves out of the pocket at the right time. Brady knows. And now comparing a college graduate to the best ever is not fair to Tom Brady; but, I’m trying to emphasize how good Kevin Hogan’s footwork truly is. And for the record, Hogan is more athletic that Brady: I’d anticipate him to run a 4.85 or so.

  1. Instinctive Passer. This is a trait that doesn’t show up on many college quarterbacks film. In college, the defensive schemes and defenders themselves are not even remotely close to as good as what Sunday will produce. On any play, there is bound to be one or two receivers running wide open; and if there isn’t, a running back is always open for a dump off because college linebackers rarely range into the flat for coverage. Smart quarterbacks take what’s there. Take the simple pass. And due to spread offensives, which produces many one on one match-ups, with little to no help, college quarterbacks are great at taking advantage to inflate their stats. Remember the mantra, "You can make the data say whatever you’d like it to say.’

Enter Stanford’s pro-style offense. There’s three, maybe four options on a given play. Hogan does not benefit from receivers running wide open. Watch his film: he is not throwing a five yard pass to a wide open receiver who takes it to the house (well he might, but it is not really by design). On almost any completed pass, he is throwing to a spot, or a decently covered area. But many times it works because Hogan knows where the ball has to go.

The master of this was Peyton Manning. He would complete flutter ball after flutter ball simply by lobbing it to the perfect spot. Again, to compare Peyton to Hogan is doing a disservice to a Hall of Famer, but I’m just trying to emphasize that Hogan uses similar skills. He knows how to read a field, read a defense and he knows where the ball needs to go.

Say what you will about Tyrod, but throwing with anticipation before a receiver makes their break or to a receiver that is yet to be open is a skill Tyrod does not have in his qb-kit. The play must be cut and dry in order for him to make a throw. He’s scared to make a turnover. So when people praise Tyrod for only throwing 6 INTS: I give pause. 6 INTS means he’s playing not to make a play. Isn’t that somewhat similar to playing a prevent defense?

Throwing to a spot is something you can’t teach. You can either do it or you can’t. And this is one reason I have so much disdain for ‘project’ NFL quarterbacks. The expression, "NFL coaches can coach him up" rings so hollow. Think about the Bills when they took JP Losman. That guy had every talent you’d want in a qb: height, speed, rocket arm. On draft day we took a ‘project with talent that could be coached up.’ How’d that work out?

The other part of Hogan’s passing attack that I love is how he attacks the seam. He uses the seams in the middle of the field as a way to keep the defense honest. Tyrod doesn’t. This is a reason safeties can double Sammy on the outside. It’s another thing that I’m not sure can be taught. Sure you can tell a quarterback ‘Trust your Tight Ends over the middle,’ but it’s up to the quarterback to do it. And if they are not doing this instinctively, will they ever truly utilize it? This goes hand and hand to being ‘coached up.’ If a professional quarterback is not seeing the field enough to know that they have a secret sweet spot in the middle of the field where big chunks of yardage can be churned out, can someone actually teach them this? I teach English, and it’s like me trying to teach a student how to understand Shakespeare when they can’t understand ‘Charlotte’s Web’.

  1. Reading a defense: This one kind of intertwines with many others, but being able to recognize a defense, see the whole field, and recognize where the ball needs to go is a ‘a-must’ in the NFL.

    EJ has been under center for 3 years. While I think he’s improved in seeing the field and understanding the defense; those turnovers against Jacksonville prove he has not developed nearly enough. He might master this trait by the time he is 55 years old.

    While some want to believe that Tyrod reads the field well, how many times does he stare down his first read, then run? That is not seeing the field. And yes, Tyrod should make a leap next year in this area, but there are no guarantees.

    Why do I bring this up?

    Because Hogan will be able to read a field and understand where the ball needs to go early in his career. He did this a lot at Stanford. He had audible power. A coach is not going to give audible power to a quarterback who doesn’t know what they are doing.

    And just a hunch, but based on this skill, I’m guessing Hogan will be a stand-out in those training camp games for whatever team drafts him.

  2. Leadership: By all accounts, Kevin Hogan is the best leader in this crop of quarterbacks. By everything I’ve read, teammates follow him. They play hard for him. They listen to him. And this my friends, might be the most important trait a quarterback needs to be successful in the NFL.

There is a reason Ryan Tannehill might not ever be successful; and I don’t think it has anything to do with his abilities. There is a reason that the Carolina Panthers went 15-1. There is a reason Colin Kaepernik regressed so painfully. There is a reason Jay Cutler leaves so much unfulfilled potential to Kristen Cavellari every January. There is a reason, despite injuries around him, Tom Brady produces win after win.

I make a clear distinction between winners and losers. But a lot of this comes down to; do his teammates trust him? Do his teammates know he’s going leave it all out on the field? Will this guy battle every week despite pain or uncomfortable circumstances?

Remember Jim Kelly? Man, was he a leader. Guys played for him. He led. He bruised. He left it all on the field every game (minus the Tampa Super Bowl when he was out until 3 am the night before the game. He’s forgiven). That’s the type of player the Bills need. This is the type of player the Bills fans want: A leader for the franchise. Not just the offense, but everything the red, white and blue mafia stands for.

OVERALL ANALYSIS: Earlier I referenced that Phillip Rivers was 33-16 as a starting quarterback. Well, Hogan was 36 – 10. More impressive, he was 16 -6 vs opponents ranked in the top 25 and led Stanford to 3 Rose Bowl appearances. Yes, I would have loved to see him in the BCS Final Four. Of course, I wish he could have played better in that Northwestern game. I agree that his numbers don’t come anywhere close to Jared Goff, despite playing in the same conference.

But here’s the beauty of Kevin Hogan—we do not, let me repeat that… DO NOT have to overdraft him. The hope is that he’ll be there at pick #49 (I wouldn’t mind trading up a few spots to grab him).

In my estimation, should Hogan be available when we pick at 49? No way.

Will he be there? Probably because the NFL loves the flashy ‘strong-armed’ quarterback with gaudy numbers or the underdog quarterback that their system will ‘coach up.’

VERDICT: 2nd round pick. Someday Hogan will join the list of 15 that can win a Superbowl. Whether that is with or without the Bills remains to be seen. But whatever team gets him, will have themselves a quality NFL quarterback.

And if the Bills do not take a guy who has all the making of a good-one at pick #49, I’m betting we’re in quarterback purgatory for the next 5 years, or until Whaley is gone. Because if he cannot see the cost-benefit here, Whaley will never understand what it takes to be an NFL quarterback and that goes well beyond the players’ size and arm-strength. The little intangibles matter: Hogan has every intangible you’re going to look for in the leader of the franchise.

CEILING: Phillip Rivers. A top 5 (or near top5) guy.

FLOOR: Ryan Fitzpatrick. A steady player who sticks around for years.

MY 2016 BILLS DRAFT WISH LIST – This is subject to change because of free agency. But I’m pretty set on a pass rusher in the 1st and Hogan in the 2nd. After that, there’s some flexibility. Safeties, linebackers and O-lineman can also help.

Round 1 (#19) – Pass rushing DE /OLB (there’s a few who should be available)

Round 2 (#49) – Kevin Hogan – Stanford

Round 3 (#80) – Linebacker

Round 4 (#114) – Safety

Round 5 (#144) – Linebacker

Round 6 (# 174) – O-lineman

Round 7 (#208) – O-lineman

Just another great fan opinion shared on the pages of BuffaloRumblings.com.