Buffalo Rumblings: All Posts by Jason Pieri

Buffalo Bills 2013 Season Video

2013-06-12T16:56:39Z

Folks, I need some help. Anyone interested in recording the Bills 2013 season, burning it on a DVD, and sending it to me? If you are, please e-mail me. I'll send you my mailing address over e-mail. I can pay you back for the price of sending the package. Thanks in advance!

2013 NFL Draft analysis, one week later: Buffalo Bills edition

2013-05-05T11:51:11Z

The 2013 NFL Draft didn't go the way many people thought it would. The quarterback class was treated the same as all the other positions for the first time since 2000. Teams went for linemen instead of skill at the top of the draft, and the Buffalo Bills picked potential over safer picks. 2013 had a very different feel to it than past drafts.

2013 was the first year since 2000 that a quarterback class got picked in the same manner as every other position. Normally, quarterbacks are all selected higher than their rating. Much higher. After the first few get selected, teams can start a run on quarterbacks, hoping not to miss out on a passer. 2013 was different. For most other positions, a few players get overdrafted due to need, some get drafted right in their natural range, and some fall. That's what happened this year for the quarterbacks. Many analysts thought the second round would be the place for the quarterback run, not the fourth round. Weird year; it didn't follow the norm.

Bills fans should hope that the results of this weird draft year don't mimic the last draft where quarterbacks were picked in this manner: the 2000 NFL Draft. That was not a very good draft year for the Bills. Reviewing the rounds, here are my thoughts on the newest Bills. Again, I think the Bills selected potential over safe picks, with a special eye towards their new coaching staff.

E.J. Manuel, QB, Florida State

This draft was about preference at quarterback. The Bills obviously like Manuel. Why? Buddy Nix, Doug Whaley, and Doug Marrone are planning for the future. Manuel has a lot of franchise quarterback traits, but needs a lot of development. Kevin Kolb can hold down the position while Manuel develops. The puzzle pieces fit together. I think Manuel, along with Mike Glennon, had the highest upside of the quarterbacks in the draft. Buffalo is betting on developing Manuel to that level. Buffalo swung for the fences with Manuel, and it's hard to knock the franchise for doing so.

The key to this pick is letting Manuel develop. There's no need to rush him to play. Marrone should take Jim Harbaugh's approach with Colin Kaepernick: sit Manuel for a year (or more) and let him learn at a comfortable pace. Kolb is a capable starter for a year or two. Manuel has all the tools, and it's paramount not to rush him. In hindsight, Buffalo made a mistake passing on Kaepernick two years ago. With a Kaepernick-like plan, Manuel could atone for the sins.

Robert Woods, WR, USC

Fantastic selection by Buffalo, who had Stevie Johnson as their lone proven, starting receiver on the roster prior to the start of the draft. Woods can, and likely will, start on opening day. He reminds me of a cross between Cris Carter and Torry Holt. Woods is a multi-level threat, like Holt was, that can get vertical. He is savvy and works the short and intermediate zones well. The danger with Woods is that he's a jack-of-all trades, but master of none, who doesn't pull coverage away from Johnson. That said, Nathaniel Hackett's offense needed a versatile receiver, and Nix got a good one in Woods.

Kiko Alonso, LB, Oregon

This pick surprised me. I had Alonso outside of my top 100 and in the fourth round. Buffalo passed on Gavin Escobar (a Jason Witten type tight end that interestingly went to Dallas), Margus Hunt (a nice scheme fit) and Jamar Taylor (a good cover corner) to take Alonso. Nix also passed on Arthur Brown, another linebacker, though I'm not sold on that criticism. Both Alonso and Brown are fast-flow scheme linebackers that won't stack well against offensive guards. The Bills really needed more stout play out of their inside linebackers - something neither Alonso or Brown would've given the Bills.

That said, Alonso is a good player. Nix is betting on potential with Alonso. He's a great athlete that can be a game changer - see the 2011 Rose Bowl for proof. He's got elite range for a linebacker, and takes no quarter on contact. I also think that defensive coordinator Mike Pettine isn't going to use Alonso as a strict inside linebacker. Alonso is built more like an outside linebacker - tall and angular. I wouldn't be surprised to see Pettine use Alonso in a number of positions. This pick could surprise if Alonso stays healthy.

Marquise Goodwin, WR, Texas

Questionable selection. I had Goodwin in the third round, so he's not a huge reach. Buffalo needs more receivers with size that can get vertical - Markus Wheaton was still on the board, but Nix passed. Goodwin isn't a luxury pick like Roscoe Parrish was in 2005, though. Goodwin is small and fast, but he's not strictly a gadget receiver and special teamer. I think Goodwin might be better outside than in the slot. He's got speed to run by man-off coverage. And Goodwin has room to grow, since he wasn't a full time football player at Texas due to track commitments. I see Goodwin's upside, but Wheaton was more of a sure thing. Again, Buffalo took a risk on player upside.

Duke Williams, S, Nevada

Williams may have been the best player on Buffalo's board at this point. I'm not a fan of the selection though. While he wasn't a reach, Buffalo could've done a lot more with this pick. With the break between the third and fourth rounds, teams get a chance to re-evaluate how the draft progressed and make changes to their draft plans. The quarterbacks still on the board after the third round ended was hard not to notice. Only Manuel, Geno Smith, and Glennon were off the board. Buffalo could've made a solid asset management choice here and selected one of the remaining quarterbacks. Washington did this last year with Kirk Cousins, who played well when Robert Griffin III was injured. Cousins may end up getting traded for more than his draft value sometime in the future.

What Washington did in 2012 is exactly what Buffalo should have done in 2013. Ryan Nassib, Landry Jones and Tyler Wilson were all on the board at the Bills' pick at No. 105 overall. Buffalo passed for Williams, who is a Pettine-style physical safety with coverage skills, so he's a good scheme fit, and he's a talented defensive back. That said, while Williams gives Pettine and the Bills some safety depth, picking another quarterback was the best choice.

Jonathan Meeks, S, Clemson

I hope Meeks was Buffalo's top rated player; otherwise, I don't like the pick. I understand that Pettine is going to run a defensive back-heavy scheme that features three safeties at times. I also understand that Nix might have had Jairus Byrd's contract situation in mind making this selection. But at this point in the draft, Buffalo already had Jairus Byrd, Aaron Williams, Da'Norris Searcy, Duke Williams and Mana Silva on the roster. All of those players except for Silva figures to get more snaps than Meeks. Buffalo could have done more with this pick. They could've taken a flyer on Brandon Jenkins' potential, for example. I would have preferred many of the players selected after Meeks in the fifth and sixth rounds.

Dustin Hopkins, K, Florida State

A lot of folks don't like this pick. I do. Hopkins was the best kicker in the draft and one of the best to come out in years. He's accurate and has a big leg. This kid isn't John Potter. Potter had a big kickoff leg with potential to be a good field goal kicker. Hopkins is a good field goal kicker with a big leg - definitely big enough to kick in Buffalo's crazy winds. If Hopkins replaces Rian Lindell, he'll have more impact that most sixth-rounders.

Chris Gragg, TE, Arkansas

Gragg is a great seventh-round pick. Aside from injury concerns, I had Gragg rated higher than Meeks. Gragg falls into the Dustin Keller-type of tight ends: more receiver than blocker. A good athlete, Gragg can legitimately threaten the safety-cornerback coverage seams, and most linebackers will struggle to keep up with him. He can also flex into the slot and run many of the routes that departed David Nelson ran two years ago. The league moved to mobile, pass-catching tight ends. Gragg fits the mold, and I think he makes the final 53-man roster.

I see two themes in the draft for the Bills: Buffalo went for high-ceiling players over higher-floor players. The Bills also trust their coaching staff. You can describe nearly every player the Bills picked by those two themes. The noteworthy exceptions are Woods and Hopkins, who could both start.

If you do an "at best, at worst" analysis of the other players, you find extremes. For example: at best, Manuel is a franchise quarterback in the Kaepernick mold. At worst, Manuel is Vince Young or Heath Shuler, an athlete that never translates his talent into the quarterback position at the professional level. The Bills clearly valued what could be in the future over safer players. For a team that needs to make a leap to compete with New England, that's not a bad strategy, though it comes with the inherent "bust" risk. This is acute in Manuel's case. He's got to become the franchise quarterback Buffalo needs.

Nix trusts Marrone and his staff. He gave Pettine the players he needed to make the new defense work. With all the potential in this draft, the Bills must have confidence that these players can be coached to their performance ceiling. That's a far cry from past seasons, where the Bills took fewer risks on potential.

In the end, this draft falls on Manuel's shoulder pads. If he succeeds, not much else will matter. If he busts, and most of the rest of the draft works out, it could still be looked at as a failed draft. Buffalo took a different swing at the ball - a heavier and riskier swing. If they connect, especially with Manuel, this draft is a home run.

2013 NFL Draft: Buffalo Bills, quarterbacks the topic du jour

2013-04-25T11:21:36Z

"Which quarterback should we select?"

Plenty of NFL war rooms are working through that question. It's the toughest question that I've come across over the past four years blogging about the Buffalo Bills and covering the NFL Draft. Everyone has their favorites, and everyone has the guys they've discounted. Is anybody really sure? I think all nine quarterbacks we've profiled on Buffalo Rumblings could become solid starting quarterbacks. All of them have a bust factor associated to them, too. There are no clear-cut future starters in this draft class.

Many drafts have a tiered breakdown of their quarterbacks. Past drafts featured a top layer of quarterbacks considered "sure fire" future starters. Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin III, Cam Newton and Sam Bradford count in that group. Predicting their futures wasn't that hard. Then came the layer of quarterbacks not quite "sure fire," but with enough talent to reasonably predict success - Ryan Tannehill, Jake Locker and Blaine Gabbert. They were followed by a set of quarterbacks very similar to this year's entire class. That layer featured quarterbacks that had significant potential, but also significant risk.

Over the past three drafts - 2010 to 2012 - that layer featured Jimmy Clausen, Tim Tebow, Christian Ponder, Andy Dalton, Colin Kaepernick, Ryan Mallett, Brandon Weeden and Brock Osweiler. Clausen put up great numbers in college, but was he the result of playing for Charlie Weis? Could Tebow and Kaepernick transition their physical and intangible tools to the pro game after playing in gimmicky college offenses? Could Ponder and Dalton overcome physical limitations and succeed on their intelligence? Could Mallett harness his huge arm and overcome maturity issues? Would Weeden have time to mature into a starter? Could Osweiler transition his unique physical abilities to the pro game after receiving poor college coaching? Teams that picked these players had to consider the upside and risk of every one of these quarterbacks.

This draft alone features nine such players - essentially the entire 2013 quarterback class belongs in that third tier of high-risk and high-reward prospects. Can Geno Smith adjust to the pro game and let his natural quarterbacking talents shine through? Will Matt Barkley's intelligence and leadership overcome limited athletic ability? Can Zac Dysert put all his tools together after an average college career? Will Tyler Bray mature and harness his immense passing abilities? Will Tyler Wilson's leadership and rhythm passing abilities overcome average athleticism? Will E.J. Manuel learn to play the pro game and harness his intelligence and athletic abilities? Can Landry Jones become consistently great? Will Mike Glennon put everything together after an inconsistent college career? Is Ryan Nassib's upside as a vertical passer high enough to be a franchise starter?

Every single quarterback in this class could end up being a franchise caliber starting quarterback in the league - every one. Some need to be in different environments with different progression rates, but given that, they all could succeed - and they all could fail. This draft could turn out to be epic in terms of failure if none of these quarterbacks develop properly in a situation suited to their development. The answer lies somewhere in between. It's up to quarterback needy teams, like the Bills, to figure it all out.

What would I do if I were a GM in the 2013 draft choosing a quarterback? Glad you asked.

Ryan Nassib: already developed in many ways, he has significant upside as a vertical passer to go along with the physical skill set desired in an NFL passer and a throwback mentality.
Mike Glennon: a Tom O'Brien passer with many developed skills and a very high ceiling if given the time to develop behind a starter, honing his mechanics and growing into a leader.
E.J. Manuel: immense physical and intellectual skill set, but needs significant development time (years) to learn how to read and progress through coverages at the required tempo to play quarterback in the NFL.

2013 NFL Draft: Buffalo Rumblings' Top 100 prospects

2013-04-24T13:05:35Z

Every year, I put together a top prospect board for myself in preparation for the NFL Draft. (At least when I can, that is.) Last year, I had to do a mad scramble over the past month to put this list together. This year, I lost January and March completely, and couldn't get to a full 150 players. So I pared the list down to 100, and I'm ready to publish my list in preparation for the 2013 NFL Draft on Thursday.

Players were graded using a draft system that Brian, kaisertown and I came up with a couple years ago. It's based on Dan Kadar's draft criteria, but simplified and streamlined for the purposes of producing a numerical grading system. It's not perfect, but no system is ever perfect.

There might be a couple shocker in my grades. That's alright in my view. I go by what I see, and only use other online opinions to check on my own work. Also, while the talent was thin at the top, I have first round grades on players well into round two - it's a good draft to have second round picks. And, there are the quarterbacks. I'll share my thoughts on them in my next story. Overall, though, my grades are a reflection of what I've seen and my opinions of these players, all of whom I hope become great professionals. Here are my my Top 100 for the 2013 NFL Draft.

Rank	Player	Position	School	Grade
1	Luke Joeckel	OT	Texas A&M	4.8
2	Jarvis Jones	OLB	Georgia	4.7
3	Star Lotulelei	DT	Utah	4.65
4	Eric Fisher	OT	Central Michigan	4.6
5	Chance Warmack	OG	Alabama	4.6
6	Dion Jordan	OLB	Oregon	4.55
7	Jonathan Cooper	OG	North Carolina	4.55
8	Lane Johnson	OT	Oklahoma	4.5
9	Manti Te'o	ILB	Notre Dame	4.5
10	Sheldon Richardson	DT	Missouri	4.45
11	Barkevious Mingo	DE	LSU	4.45
12	Dee Milliner	CB	Alabama	4.4
13	Ezekiel Ansah	DE	Brigham Young	4.4
14	Alec Ogletree	ILB	Georgia	4.4
15	Sylvester Williams	DT	North Carolina	4.4
16	Geno Smith	QB	West Virginia	4.4
17	Sharrif Floyd	DT	Florida	4.35
18	D.J. Fluker	OT	Alabama	4.3
19	Bjoern Werner	DE	Florida State	4.3
20	Justin Hunter	WR	Tennessee	4.3
21	Ryan Nassib	QB	Syracuse	4.3
22	Tyler Eifert	TE	Notre Dame	4.25
23	Kenny Vaccaro	S	Texas	4.25
24	Cordarrelle Patterson	WR	Tennessee	4.25
25	Tavon Austin	WR	West Virginia	4.2
26	Keenan Allen	WR	California	4.2
27	Sio Moore	OLB	Connecticut	4.2
28	Eric Reid	S	LSU	4.2
29	Matt Barkley	QB	USC	4.2
30	Mike Glennon	QB	North Carolina State	4.15
31	Desmond Trufant	CB	Washington	4.1
32	John Jenkins	DT	Georgia	4.1
33	Menelik Watson	OT	Florida State	4.1
34	Jamar Taylor	CB	Boise State	4.1
35	Kyle Long	OG	Oregon	4.1
36	Jesse Williams	DT	Alabama	4.1
37	Arthur Brown	OLB	Kansas State	4.1
38	Travis Frederick	OC	Wisconsin	4.05
39	E.J. Manuel	QB	Florida State	4.05
40	Zach Ertz	TE	Stanford	4
41	Robert Woods	WR	USC	4
42	DeAndre Hopkins	WR	Clemson	4
43	Matt Elam	S	Florida	4
44	Gavin Escobar	TE	San Diego State	4
45	Andre Ellington	RB	Clemson	4
46	Christine Michael	RB	Texas A&M	4
47	Brennan Williams	OT	North Carolina	4
48	Mike Gillislee	RB	Florida	4
49	Levine Toilolo	TE	Stanford	4
50	D.J. Hayden	CB	Houston	3.95
51	D.J. Swearinger	S	South Carolina	3.95
52	Tavarres King	WR	Georgia	3.95
53	Datone Jones	DE	UCLA	3.9
54	Kawann Short	DT	Purdue	3.9
55	Cornellius Carradine	DE	Florida State	3.9
56	Eddie Lacy	RB	Alabama	3.9
57	Quinton Patton	WR	Louisiana Tech	3.9
58	Montee Ball	RB	Wisconsin	3.9
59	Darius Slay	CB	Mississippi State	3.9
60	Markus Wheaton	WR	Oregon State	3.9
61	Kevin Reddick	ILB	North Carolina	3.9
62	Dallas Thomas	OG	Tennessee	3.9
63	Marcus Lattimore	RB	South Carolina	3.9
64	Ryan Swope	WR	Texas A&M	3.9
65	Dion Sims	TE	Michigan State	3.9
66	Landry Jones	QB	Oklahoma	3.9
67	Margus Hunt	DE	Southern Methodist	3.85
68	Johnthan Banks	CB	Mississippi State	3.85
69	Barrett Jones	OC	Alabama	3.85
70	Tyler Wilson	QB	Arkansas	3.85
71	Justin Pugh	OT	Syracuse	3.8
72	Blidi Wreh-Wilson	CB	Connecticut	3.8
73	Kevin Minter	ILB	LSU	3.8
74	Sam Montgomery	DE	LSU	3.8
75	Alex Okafor	DE	Texas	3.8
76	Stedman Bailey	WR	West Virginia	3.8
77	Brian Schwenke	OC	California	3.8
78	Le'veon Bell	RB	Michigan State	3.8
79	Giovani Bernard	RB	North Carolina	3.8
80	Da'rick Rogers	WR	Tennessee	3.8
81	Josh Boyce	WR	TCU	3.8
82	Chris Gragg	TE	Arkansas	3.8
83	Johnathan Franklin	RB	UCLA	3.8
84	Zac Dysert	QB	Miami (OH)	3.8
85	Johnathan Hankins	DT	Ohio State	3.75
86	Terrance Williams	WR	Baylor	3.75
87	Larry Warford	OG	Kentucky	3.75
88	Aaron Dobson	WR	Marshall	3.75
89	Travis Kelce	TE	Cincinnati	3.75
90	Robert Alford	CB	Southeastern Louisiana	3.75
91	Vance Mcdonald	TE	Rice	3.75
92	Hugh Thornton	OG	Illinois	3.75
93	Jordan Poyer	CB	Oregon State	3.75
94	Kwame Geathers	DT	Georgia	3.75
95	Aaron Mellette	WR	Elon	3.75
96	Leerentee McCray	OLB	Florida	3.75
97	Tyler Bray	QB	Tennessee	3.75
98	Johnathan Cyprien	S	Florida International	3.7
99	Damontre Moore	DE	Texas A&M	3.7
100	Khaseem Greene	OLB	Rutgers	3.7

Geno Smith 2013 NFL Draft scouting report

2013-04-22T10:15:05Z

West Virginia quarterback Geno Smith is the last of nine 2013 NFL Draft quarterback prospects that Buffalo Rumblings will profile this off-season. Smith is a three-year starter who began the 2012 college football season on fire while en route to a 5-0 record, reminding many fans of Robert Griffin III and his torrid pace during the 2011 season. As the Big 12 season opened up, West Virginia and Smith came back down to earth, evening up to 5-5 before finishing 7-5 and ending their season with a loss in the Pinstripe Bowl.

Geno Smith | QB | West Virginia

6'2 3/8", 218 pounds
Started 39 games over three seasons (26-13 record, 1-2 in bowl games)
Career stats: 988/1,465 (67.4% completions), 11,662 yards (7.9 YPA), 98 TD, 21 INT

Strengths

Smith possesses all of the physical traits needed to play the position. He has a strong arm, and has played well in the bad weather games in Morgantown, firing through wind and precipitation. He throws accurately into tight windows, and has learned to take some heat off his fastball when needed. He throws very well on the move, showing a remarkable ability to move, reset, and fire the football accurately.

Don't be fooled by Smith's athleticism. He's a pocket passer with tremendous scrambling ability. While many view Smith as a dual threat quarterback, I don't. He is a pocket passer first, and plays like one. Smith moves when he needs to and resets very quickly - he's the best quarterback in the draft in this regard.

Smith tries to stay in the pocket and allow his protection to work for him. This may not have been a good idea, since he played behind an average offensive line. That said, Smith keeps eyes downfield under pressure. He'll stand in and throw with the world crashing in around him. He can take a beating and still deliver the football accurately - see the 2012 Maryland game.

Reports on Smith playing in a primarily predicated read offense are overblown. Smith can read a defense and work through progressions. I've watched him work through them frequently, and I counted predicated reads versus progression reads. Dana Holgorsen did run a gimmicky offense, but he asked Smith to make progression reads on well over half of West Virginia's passing plays.

Weaknesses

Smith has a ton of development to do in reading progressions against advanced defenses. The Big 12 Conference has been running, and defending, Air Raid style offenses for the better part of the past decade. Big 12 defenses have become very adept at taking away the shorter reads and covering the high-low reads that come with an Air Raid scheme. Smith shredded the first five defenses he faced, then got lost in disguised coverages against Texas Tech, Kansas State, and Texas Christian. It took him nearly three games to begin to figure the defenses out - time that neither Smith nor West Virginia had.

When Smith struggled, he forced throws out of frustration, and sped through progressions too fast. He was pressing, trying to compensate for his terrible defense and a lopsided scoreboard, and made mistakes. That said, West Virginia did not employ complex passing progressions, and Smith misread defenses a lot. On top of that, Smith holds onto mistakes too long, which causes him to continue to press.

While Smith is fantastic at moving and resetting, his "set" isn't very good. He bounces on his toes in the pocket, which isn't a good position to throw from - you want a good, stable base. He's not smooth mechanically. His bouncing and other non-necessary movement gets him out of sync with receivers. He doesn't stand tall and still in the pocket when he can, and when he should. And he's never operated from under center.

While Smith is a wonderful athlete, and gobbles up yards when he runs, he isn't sturdy like Manuel or Nassib. He has thin legs and doesn't have the frame to take a pounding. His desire to stick in the pocket should minimize this, but it's a concern. Smith's hands are small, and he has 32 career fumbles.

Outlook

Smith is a project whose best football should be ahead of him. When the light goes on for Smith, you get games like the 2011 Orange Bowl, where he tore Clemson to pieces. Even in some of his 2012 losses, he wasn't playing that poorly, and aside from the Texas Tech and Kansas State games, he put up points, and lots of them. He's got the right talent mix to become a great NFL passer.

Smith needs to work on reading complex NFL coverages. He got a shotgun course in disguised coverages in the Big12 this past season, and after he started to get a feel for it, he played better. The NFL is going to be a lot harder, and Smith can't play right away. Smith needs to go a team that doesn't start him right away, and lets him cut his teeth on defenses in practice. Once he starts, that team needs to simplify the offense early on, let him adjust, and continue to give more to him in increments. This isn't uncommon - Ben Roethlisberger and even Tom Brady broke in this way.

At the top of Smith's game, when he understands his offense and can read the defense, you see games like the Texas game, where he weathered a great pass rush against a talented team and played a very good game. But it's going to take a while to get Smith to that level again. He needs a re-education on playing quarterback against complex coverages. A team that rushes him probably flirts with disaster, ending up with another first round quarterback flop. A team with a long-term plan which breaks in Smith slowly could end up with a heck of a quarterback.

Tyler Wilson 2013 NFL Draft scouting report

2013-04-22T10:00:11Z

Arkansas quarterback Tyler Wilson is the eighth of nine 2013 NFL Draft quarterback prospects that Buffalo Rumblings will profile this off-season. Wilson's best season was two years ago, when he led Arkansas to an 11-2 record, continuing the Razorbacks' success as a Top 10 program nationally. The dismissal of head coach Bobby Petrino in the off-season set up Arkansas for a bad year in 2012, which was compounded by injuries to Wilson.

Tyler Wilson | QB | Arkansas

6'2 1/8", 215 pounds
Started 24 games over three seasons (15-9 record, 1-0 in bowl games)
Career stats: 593/948 (62.6% completions), 7,765 yards (8.2 YPA), 52 TD, 26 INT

Strengths

Wilson is average physically with some good traits. Has has good arm strength - not great - and can deliver the ball with velocity on most NFL passes. He's accurate, though throwing into tight windows in the SEC isn't that common, and Petrino's offense can open up some wide gaps in coverage. Wilson is good, maybe best, on the move. He can deliver with different arm angles without losing much velocity or accuracy. He has good pocket presence and avoids the rush well, often looking like a magician as he turns a seemingly dead play into a gain.

Mentally, Wilson is checked into every game and every snap he plays. He's a vocal leader who's very determined and competitive. Wilson is careful with the ball, only fumbling twice in 2012 despite very small hands. He's adept at reading defenses both pre- and post-snap. He gets rid of the ball very quickly, and plays best in a rhythm offense where he's asked to drop and fire quickly. Wilson would be a natural for what Buffalo and Chan Gailey did the last three years on offense.

Weaknesses

Wilson has a small frame and isn't going to progress much physically. He's not sturdy, and injuries could always be a concern - though he's proven that he'll play through injuries. He's got some wind-up to his delivery that allows defenders to get a jump on the ball. Wilson's arm strength was much better as a junior, when he hit intermediate throws often, but it's clear that he needs to be healthy to be truly effective.

Wilson does well with most of the finer points of the game, but he does have a maddening tendency to stare down his primary receiver. He makes bad decisions when defenses force him away from his primary read. He also has Tony Romo moments when he tries to make a play no quarterback should make, mostly trying to force the football where it shouldn't go.

There will always be concerns with a Petrino-produced quarterback. Arkansas' offense hides quarterback weaknesses, inflates stats, and fields a team with high-end receiving talent on a yearly basis. Quarterbacks from Petrino's system have not contributed professionally to date after playing very well in college (Brian Brohm, Ryan Mallett).

Outlook

Wilson is a fantastic rhythm thrower that needs to go to a team with a horizontal timing offense that gets the ball out quickly. He's best in a system where information is mostly complete pre-snap, and he can drop, step, and fire. He's a good decision maker that needs to learn that he can't fire the football everywhere he wants, and can't challenge NFL defenses the way he challenged SEC defenses the past two years.

Wilson needs to go to a team that turns the game into a mental match-up contest. A horizontal passing offense that gets the ball out quickly with solid pass protection is the right fit for Wilson. A team that runs an offense similar to what Buffalo ran last season is ideal. Wilson is a better version of former Bills quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick, with more accuracy, more arm strength, and better leadership skills.

Ryan Nassib 2013 NFL Draft scouting report

2013-04-21T15:30:07Z

Syracuse quarterback Ryan Nassib is the seventh of nine 2013 NFL Draft quarterback prospects that Buffalo Rumblings will profile this off-season. Nassib is the odds-on favorite among many draftniks to be picked by the Buffalo Bills due to his connection to head coach Doug Marrone and offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett. Nassib is a great prospect in his own right, with the ability to step in and play at the NFL level soon - and with room for growth.

Ryan Nassib | QB | Syracuse

6'2 1/8", 227 pounds
Started 38 games over three seasons (21-17 record, 2-0 in bowl games)
Career stats: 791/1,312 (60.3% completions), 9,190 yards (7.0YPA), 70 TD, 28 INT

Strengths

Nassib is physically and mentally tough. He's a throwback style of quarterback, and the comparisons to Jim Kelly aren't far off in terms of how Nassib approaches the game. He's well-muscled, very strong, and sturdy enough to take a pounding over the course of a season and still deliver the football. Nassib's arm strength is above average. While it's not an elite arm a la Matthew Stafford, he throws with a great deal of velocity on longer throws down the field. In terms of arm strength, he's in the Eli Manning class: just below elite, but more than enough power to make all the throws.

Nassib shows NFL grade accuracy. His completion percentage isn't great, but he was running Hackett's NFL style offense, making pro reads at speed. Nassib is an anticipation thrower, and can throw receivers open against coverage. He can put the ball into tight windows and can already make throws required in the NFL. To boot, he's got great pocket presence, regularly standing in and delivering under pressure.

He is NFL-ready. Nassib played well in a high-tempo, pro style offense. He can call plays at speed, audible on his own, read defenses both pre- and post-snap, and make pro progressions. Nassib regularly went through his progressions to his third and fourth receiver, keeping plays alive for Syracuse.

Nassib is smart and a fast learner. Syracuse turned their up-tempo package into their base offense ten days prior to the start of the 2012 season, and Nassib adjusted and thrived. Nassib responds well to adversity, brought his team from behind repeatedly, plays big in big games, and wills his teams to wins. He comes across mature in interviews - the type of guy you want leading your team, or you want to be led by.

Weaknesses

Syracuse ran a lot of read option, but Nassib is not a great runner, though he can run for power with his body composition. He has average speed and gets caught easily. He can be elusive in the pocket but won't get away from most NFL pass rushers.

Nassib shows wasted motion in his mechanics, jittering around too much. When he's at his best, he shows a nice compact release with an over-the-top throwing motion. He'll need to work on consistency. He also shows a weird habit of throwing way too hard on shorter routes and not hard enough on fades. He'll need to stop trying to peel his receiver's fingers off in the shorter zones, and put some more power on the ball throwing deep.

Outlook

The Syracuse star is the best combination of present capability and future potential of all the quarterbacks in the draft. He clearly has the required skills to play quarterback in the NFL - and very well. Nassib more than capably ran an NFL offense at Syracuse, posting great statistics as a senior, including a 62.4% completion percentage. I believe Nassib has plenty of room for growth. Syracuse didn't run a full NFL offense, keeping the passing offense mostly in the horizontal timing range, though Nassib's arm strength is clearly strong enough to throw more vertical combinations. That's where Nassib's growth potential lies.

Nassib is the type of quarterback teams - the players - want. He's a guy teams are going to respect. He plays tough and not like a quarterback in a skirt. And he's the type of quarterback that can put the team on his shoulders and carry them to wins. While he many not be the most physically imposing quarterback in the draft with the highest ceiling, there's enough for me to think he'll eventually be this draft's best quarterback.

E.J. Manuel 2013 NFL Draft scouting report

2013-04-21T14:00:20Z

Florida State quarterback E.J. Manuel is the sixth of nine 2013 NFL Draft quarterback prospects that Buffalo Rumblings will profile this off-season. He helped bring the Seminoles back into the national championship discussion for a time during the 2012 season, and sports a sparkling bowl record, winning all four Florida State bowls during his career - if you count his game against South Carolina as a sophomore, when he replaced an injured Christian Ponder in the second quarter.

E.J. Manuel | QB | Florida State

6'4 5/8", 237 pounds
Started 31 games over four seasons (25-3 record, 4-0 in bowl games)
Career stats: 600/897 (66.9% completions), 7,736 yards (8.2 YPA), 47 TD, 28 INT

Strengths

Manuel is the most physically gifted quarterback in the draft. He's the best movement quarterback in the class, combining imposing size with impressive physical skills reminiscent of Cam Newton. Manuel plays well on the move throwing and passing, and can function as a dual threat runner, running both to the outside and for power between the tackles.

He has large hands and can spin the ball with a great ball with lots of velocity. Manuel is accurate, though his stats are highly inflated due to the type of passing game Jimbo Fisher ran for Manuel at Florida State. Manuel can fire the ball into passing windows at all levels of the field, and throws a good deep ball, though he relied entirely too much on 50/50 balls thrown to his athletic receivers.

Manuel's intangibles are top shelf. He's tough, plays through injuries (see the bowl game against Notre Dame in 2011), and will put the team before his own health. He wins big games and inspires his teammates - the 2012 Clemson game is a great example of this ability. Manuel graduated in three years and was an all-ACC scholastic athlete. He's extremely intelligent, carries an easy confidence, and is the type of person a franchise wants as the face of the organization.

Weaknesses

For as smart as Manuel is, Florida State did not run a complex offense for him. Fisher designed a predicated read offense where Manuel could make decisions pre-snap with only one or two reads after the ball is snapped. Most of Florida State's route combinations were high-low reads that developed in front of Manuel's field of vision to one side. After his initial reads were covered, he either held onto the ball too long looking for something to come open, or he took off running. He didn't work through many progressions past the second receiver, he didn't call audibles, and has a lot to learn about running an NFL offense at tempo and making fast reads against disguised NFL coverages.

Manuel has some ball handling and mechanical issues. He's got huge hands and could get away with some of the free-ball running he did, but that won't work in the NFL. He's also far from polished in footwork and mechanics. He's able to power the football where he wants it to go in college. Manuel needs a season or two to get his mechanics in order to allow him to remain accurate into NFL passing windows.

Outlook

E.J. Manuel is a lesser version of Newton without any of the baggage. He the prototypical 21st century quarterback in terms of physical ability. Manuel can run the read option, the current fad in the NFL. More importantly, he can move around and avoid the rush, Ben Roethlisberger style, frustrating the rush and keeping passing plays alive.

Manuel needs lots of time to grow into a quarterback. Right now, he's an athlete playing quarterback. He needs to go to a team with a stable front office and coaching situation where he can develop at a slower pace. He can't run a NFL offense right now without significantly watering down the offense, or tailoring the offense the way Fisher did at Florida State. While Manuel is ultra-smart, there's a difference between studying and making decisions at NFL speeds, and Manuel needs help with the latter. A team that takes Manuel needs to have a long-term development plan. A team that does so could have a quarterback like Colin Kaepernick... or, if they rush him to the field, Tim Tebow.