I consider myself incredibly lucky to be a season ticket holder at Ralph Wilson Stadium.  I'm afforded the opportunity to see the Bills live at least seven times per season; I know that's an opportunity that many of you would just about die for.  I felt the pain many of you felt this Sunday, however, while trying to do my usual film breakdowns; there's only so much Cincinnati Bengals football I can handle.  Mercifully, we don't play that team this season.

So, with the power outage ultimately leading to a lot of useless time and data on my DVR, I'm shortening up the film sessions to some more general observations this week.  With any luck, we'll return to our regularly scheduled programming next week after the Bills face the Dolphins.

C Duke Preston vs C Melvin Fowler
I can appreciate what y'all are saying about the Duke Preston vs Melvin Fowler debate, but please understand that this is one of the weakest debates I've ever seen when it comes to Bills personnel.  Let me assure you that even though Preston was part of a line that performed admirably against San Diego (at least when it came to pass protection), the Bills hold Fowler in much higher regard.  I wasn't too impressed with Preston; I doubt Fowler would have played worse.  Fowler is the starter when he's healthy, and that could be as soon as this week.

Marshawn vs Fred
I saw some folks asking why it was Fred Jackson and not Marshawn Lynch in the game while the Bills were trying to kill clock against the Chargers.  First of all, I didn't see anything different in the way the two backs normally rotate; by the terms of that rotation, it was Jackson's turn to be on the field.  Clearly, Buffalo's coaching staff is every bit as comfortable with Jackson as they are with Lynch to depend on him in that situation.

To add to this, however, I think it's pretty clear that Jackson was giving the Chargers more problems.  Lynch has trouble getting going sometimes; Jackson's a one-cut guy that hits his top speed relatively quick.  Jackson's numbers weren't as gaudy, but he was consistently having much more success running the ball than was Lynch, including up the middle.  Lynch had some long runs to boost his average; Jackson was churning out yardage better.  That may have played into the decision as well.  Combined, these two guys present a ridiculously challenging matchup for our opponents.

DT Kyle Williams
I mentioned prior to the start of the season that I thought DT Kyle Williams was getting ready for a break-out season.  Some of you scoffed.  Williams has been nothing short of Buffalo's best defensive lineman this season; when he's not double teamed, he's exploding into opposing backfields.  Nobody has made more plays in opponent's backfields than Williams this season.  When he's on, he's an absolute monster.  Nothing changed against San Diego; it took two guys to block him most of the game, and when they singled him up, he was highly disruptive once again.

DT John McCargo
Let's give this kid some credit - coming off of his botched trade, McCargo played a surprising amount, and he played pretty well.  He won't pick up much in the way of stats in his current role, simply because he inexplicably demands double teams when he's on the field.  He looked good against San Diego; he drew a double team that helped Copeland Bryan apply serious pressure on Kawika Mitchell's interception.

DE Contain vs Misdirection
This is a recurring problem for the Bills, and if memory serves me correctly, Buffalo's opponents have exploited it at least once in each game this season.  Buffalo's defensive ends make one major mistake in contain per game, and the usual culprits are Chris Kelsay and Bryan.  This week, the mistake came on a 31-yard reverse run by Chargers WR Vincent Jackson.  Buffalo's ends, by and large, played pretty well against San Diego, but it'd be nice if they started playing a bit more disciplined on misdirection plays.

FB Corey McIntyre
I was impressed with Buffalo's new fullback.  He didn't look great as a lead blocker, but he hasn't been allowed to do much of it yet, either, so I won't pass judgment there yet.  Where he looked outstanding was as a wedge-buster on Buffalo's kick coverage units.  McIntyre is like a little bowling ball of pain out there (well, as "little" as a 258-pound man can be, I suppose), and routinely destroyed the Chargers' blocking schemes.  He looked very good in this role.  Another quality signing by Bobby April.  As a result, the Bills were able to quite easily contain one of the NFL's most explosive return men in Chargers RB Darren Sproles.

P Brian Moorman
Let's give our punter some love.  He had a punt nullified by a penalty in the fourth quarter, and during said punt, he developed a pretty serious cramp in his left (plant leg) calf.  While the refs were taking care of the penalty, George Wilson helped Moorman stretch out on the field - but he was clearly bothered.  Moorman stayed on the field, punted a rocket with his left leg in a knot, then hobbled off the field after some excellent punt coverage.  Who said 172-pound punters weren't tough?

The Buffalo Bills beat the San Diego Chargers 23-14 this past Sunday, but the game didn't completely turn Buffalo's way until linebacker Kawika Mitchell intercepted a pass by San Diego's Philip Rivers, thwarting a would-be go-ahead touchdown.  Mitchell's interception set up the field goal that iced the game for Buffalo as well.  Here's how it happened.

The Situation
San Diego ball, 1st and Goal, 4th Quarter

* This is a bread and butter play for San Diego.  The Chargers line up in an off-set I formation with Vincent Jackson (83) wide left, Antonio Gates (85) in the slot and Brandon Manumaleuna (86) out wide to the right.  The Bills counter with the defense they set aside for Gates.  Reserve safety Bryan Scott (43) lines up in man coverage across from Gates, while Jabari Greer (33) takes Jackson solo and Donte Whitner (20) lines up across from Manumaleuna.
* This play is designed to get single coverage on either Gates, Manumaleuna or LaDainian Tomlinson (21).  Prior to the snap, Manumaleuna motions inside of Gates with Whitner shadowing, meaning that the Gates/Scott matchup now takes place on the outside of the formation.  Clearly, the Chargers' main target on the play is going to be Gates.
* The key to the play for Buffalo here?  Buffalo's linebackers are playing zone underneath the man coverages of Greer, Scott and Whitner.  It's a mix designed to confuse Rivers, but only a terrific read by Mitchell makes the play work.

The Snap

* Things actually fell into place for San Diego here.  The line does a good enough job on the Bills' defensive line, though Copeland Bryan (96) gets some good pressure on Rivers' blind side.  John McCargo (97) takes up the guard (Dielman) and center (Hardwick); Spencer Johnson (91) takes up Goff's attention, and Chris Kelsay (90) occupies Jeromey Clary.
* Paul Posluszny's action seals the play.  Playing in a zone, Posluszny comes up in front of Keith Ellison (56) as the two zone guys responsible for Tomlinson and fullback Mike Tolbert (35) out of the backfield.  Posluszny looks like a blitzer in the process, however; both Tolbert and Tomlinson stay in to max protect.
* Still, the coverages almost work for the Chargers.  Whitner follows Manumaleuna in man coverage into the end zone, where the bulky tight end is doubled by free safety George Wilson (37).  That effectively takes Wilson out of play in terms of coverage on Gates, who is now officially singled up with Scott - and he's got a lot of space in front of him for a score.  This is exactly what the Chargers wanted.
* Normally in this situation, Mitchell is stuck in no-man's land.  The Chargers run this play for a reason - it nearly always works.  Usually, as this play is developing, Mitchell drops back in a zone to "double" Jackson on the left side of the field with Greer.  As you may have heard, however, Buffalo expected the play - and they knew how to defend it when it inevitably showed up.

The Pick and The Aftermath

Mitchell recognizes the play and does what his coaches wanted him to do.  He crosses the field to double Gates; a shallow throw by the unsuspecting Rivers is easily intercepted by the Bills' weak side linebacker.  Game, set, match.

This was a great designed play by the Chargers that they used a bit too often in games leading up to this one.  This is why offensive quality control coaches exist - to eliminate defenders knowing what's coming.  San Diego's guys didn't do their jobs well enough; Mitchell and the Bills coaching staff were on this one like stink on cheese.

That's this week's Paint Analysis, folks.  More Film Analysis to come a bit later on today, but I'll only have some abbreviated thoughts in one post.  For now, enjoy reminiscing about Kawika's pick of Philip Rivers!

Mitchell, defense rebound against San Diego (Associated Press)

This was a weird game, folks.  Playing nearly an entire half of football in what can only be described as "pre-historic" conditions, the Buffalo Bills defeated the San Diego Chargers 23-14 to improve their record to 5-1 on the season.

Ralph Wilson Stadium was without power for the majority of the first half, causing issues for both teams.  The Bills hung tough and took a 13-7 lead into the (completely lightless) locker room.  Surviving that bit of adversity, with severely cramped communications, can't be underestimated.  I've been to a lot of Bills games; this one was the weirdest.

Trent Edwards and Kawika Mitchell were the stars, but this was a total team effort.  This was a huge test for the Bills coming off of their bye week and a tough loss in Arizona; the Bills passed that test with near-flying colors.

Offense dominant through the air
Do y'all remember when, earlier this week, I laid out the blueprint to beating the Chargers?  Ball control passing game, taking advantage of the Chargers' awful pass defense?  Well, either the Bills were listening, or they were already on it.  Edwards completed 25 of his 30 passes, the running game was more complementary than primary, and the Bills held the ball for over 35 minutes in a dominant performance.

It was a sound game plan, and Edwards - in his first appearance after sustaining a concussion - executed it to perfection.  (I'd like to posit a new nickname for Buffalo's star quarterback: "The Executor".)  Edwards threw for 261 yards and notched a beautiful two-yard touchdown toss to Lee Evans, who used his helmet in lieu of a second hand on the reception.  Evans finished the day with 8 grabs for 89 yards and the score; Edwards' passer rating on the day was a stupendous 114.

Buffalo's rushing attack suffered through some of its usual problems - mostly finding any room to run between the tackles - but the duo of Marshawn Lynch and Fred Jackson were effective in this one.  The Bills ran for 109 yards on the day; Lynch amassed 70 of those and scored on a 9-yard jaunt to take the lead for good, with Jackson serving as his lead blocker on the play.  The unspectacular efficiency of the ground game led to the Bills' most balanced game of the season offensively.

Defense makes plays when it needs to
Mitchell gets the credit for swinging the momentum for the Bills.  Philip Rivers had been doing a good job carving the Bills' defense up underneath, but it was a Mitchell interception a yard deep in Buffalo's end zone that thwarted the Chargers' go-ahead scoring attempt mid-way through the fourth quarter.  Mitchell then added a forced fumble - recovered by Copeland Bryan - that put the game on ice for the Bills.

Buffalo's pass rush, which was non-existent for most of the game, showed up when it had to.  Playing without Aaron Schobel, Buffalo's defensive line was once again disruptive; this was especially true in the run game, as the Bills held LaDainian Tomlinson to just 41 yards rushing.  It was the secondary, however, that played well.  With Terrence McGee out and Ashton Youboty's playing time severely limited with an injury of his own, the Bills gave up some big plays, but also kept the Chargers' lethal passing attack largely under control.  The lack of big plays by the San Diego offense is what ultimately did them in.

Game balls
Three game balls to give out today, and I'm pretty sure you know where two of them are going right off the bat...

Trent Edwards: Let's not underestimate this kid anymore.  He's arrived.  When you complete 83% of your passes two weeks after a concussion is, quite frankly, ridiculous.  His QB rating is 98.8 this season, and the Bills are 5-0 in which he's taken the majority of snaps.  He's the real deal, and he played like it against a pretty good pass rush today.

The O-Line: The Chargers came into this game ranked fifth in the league with 17 sacks.  The Bills started a reserve center (Duke Preston) and played with a reserve at right guard (Jason Whittle) for a while.  The Chargers didn't record a sack; in fact, Edwards didn't even take any hits.  This was a spectacular performance for Buffalo's pass blockers.

Kawika Mitchell: He struggled mightily in Arizona; that's not true of his performance today.  7 tackles, a sack, an interception and a forced fumble made Mitchell the engine of an impressive defensive effort.

Roll call and "Image of the Day"
Mad props to the 30 folks who toughed it out through the power outages in today's game thread.  Bigger props to Kurupt for running the blog while I was getting my face burned at the stadium, and also for pacing the threads with a whopping 242 comments (WABillsfan, for the record, wasn't far behind with 203).  Thanks to these 30 folks:

StuckInNJ, karovda, Kurupt, thefourwinds, MonStarr_716, BuffCrunch, MARVelous, Scoe221, tomsbills, WABillsfan, chaosthepitbull, NJBillsfan, Thronsen, Memphisbillsfan, kaisertown, Ron From NM, keuka121, MattRichWarren, DodgerBlueBalls, The Buffalonian, patamunzo, SebastianPruiti, TheK-GunNeedsReloaded, Cinga, Black84GTI, Joe P., fletcherjd, BearsNecessity, GhostDogg47, Northern1

And now, fellow Rumblers, your image of the day:

     
Buffalo Bills (4-1) vs San Diego Chargers (3-3)
1:00 PM ET, Ralph Wilson Stadium
Keys to Victory :: Bolts from the Blue :: Video Preview
BUF Injury Report :: SD Injury Report
Bills inactives: 13-Steve Johnson, 24-Terrence McGee, 25-Xavier Omon, 67-Melvin Fowler, 77-Demetrius Bell, 86-Derek Fine, 94-Aaron Schobel, 1–Gibran Hamdan-3rd QB

The Buffalo Bills are 4-1.  "So what?" says the "realistic" observer; the Bills have beaten teams with a combined record of 6-15 this season.

If you feel that way, then today's your day: the Bills face their stiffest challenge of the season when the explosive San Diego Chargers visit The Ralph.  The Chargers, 3-3 on the season, have won 3 of their last 4 and boast the NFL's highest-scoring offense.

This one should be fun, folks.  The last time the Chargers visited Buffalo, a San Diego team that finished 14-2 scraped by a 7-9 Bills team led by J.P. Losman.  This Chargers team isn't as strong defensively as they were in 2006; this Bills team is much better than the '06 outfit that nearly pulled the upset.  A fast start by either team puts their opponent in an extremely difficult situation.

This is a winnable game, folks.  The Bills can compete with any NFL team at this stadium, including the Chargers, and they've had a bye week to work on some of their weaknesses.  Now, there aren't any more excuses.  Results are expected.  It starts today with the Chargers.  A win here, and the Bills very well could be the talk of the league.  Get your game face on, and if you're hanging out here, get ready for an action-packed game thread.  Create a free account if you'd like to join in on the action.

I'm unusually optimistic about this one.  GO BILLS!

     
Buffalo Bills (4-1) vs San Diego Chargers (3-3)
Sunday, October 19, 2008 - 1:00PM EDT
SB Nation's Chargers coverage: Bolts From The Blue

It's only been two weeks since the meltdown in Arizona, but it's felt like months.  Buffalo Bills football is finally back, following a long bye week, with the San Diego Chargers in town for a tough AFC matchup.  It'll be a struggle to beat the Chargers and get to 5-1, but below are my keys to a Bills victory Sunday afternoon:

Pray for Melvin Fowler: If anyone watched the Chargers/Patriots game on Sunday night, they saw NT Jamal Williams absolutely destroy Pats' Pro Bowl C Dan Koppen.  He treated him as if he were a freshman in high school. The Fowler (or Duke Preston, if Fowler can't go) vs Williams battle is going to be one where the Chargers have a significant advantage.  The Bills are going to have to give Fowler help or we're going to see pressure up the middle all afternoon.  If they can double Williams and neutralize him, the potential for run success and a pocket for Trent Edwards will be there.  That's a big if.

Keep Trent upright:  This is twofold.  On one hand, nobody wants to see him take another shot, as I'm sure we'll all be holding our breath every time he hits the turf.  We need him healthy and running the offense if we want to beat the Chargers.  On the other hand, we also need to keep him upright in order to keep the chains moving.  As Brian said, the potential to control the clock via the pass will be there, but that won't happen if Trent is getting hit early and often.  The Chargers have 17 sacks on the season, including 12 in their past 3 games, and our OL has given up 16.  It's time for Jason Peters and Langston Walker to finally come to play. 

Start fast: Other than the Jacksonville game, we haven't played very well in the first half of any game.  A strong start would go a long way towards a victory this week.  We also have to limit San Diego early on.  In their two best performances of the season, against the Jets and Pats, the Chargers have outscored the opponent 48-17 in the first half.  They proceeded to roll after that.  If the Chargers get up early, they are very tough to come back on.  This is definitely not a game we can start slowly in.  After two weeks to prepare, there's no reason the offense shouldn't come out strong, especially if Edwards isn't rusty.  San Diego will obviously be keying on a fast start themselves, so this will be one to watch.

Find a way, any way, to get after Rivers:  I've harped on it enough and we all know the pass rush has been stagnant at best.  With two weeks to prepare and work on some blitzes, Perry Fewell's defense has to come out and get after Philip Rivers.  With Aaron Schobel iffy with his foot injury and an ineffective rush around him, Buffalo's blitzers are going to have to come up huge this week.  We cannot let Rivers sit back there and pick apart our defense underneath like Kurt Warner was allowed to do two weeks ago.  Rivers likes to go deep to his big receivers; we have to disrupt his timing and force him to move around.  With that, Fewell has to let his corners play up on the line of scrimmage to take away the quick stuff that killed us against Arizona. With Terrence McGee out, we definitely need to force Rivers' hand.

Don't let Tomlinson find his footing: We've all heard about LT's struggles this year, but he's getting healthy and he's still as good a RB as there is in the NFL.  Personally, I don't want to see him return to prominence this week.  Our potentially mediocre run defense (currently 18th in the NFL) has started to regress as the season has progressed.  The Chargers haven't run it all that well yet this year, but have the potential to do so.  Our run D has been mostly stout, but water has started leaking in as we've allowed 145 rushing yards per game the last two after a great start.  Which run D will show up this week?  Hopefully the one we saw in our first three games (94 ypg), not the past two.

More Marshawn: With the Bills continuous struggle to run the ball, Turk Schonert needs to continue finding other ways to get him the ball in space.  It'd be nice to incorporate the screen pass back into the offense this week.  Lynch and Fred Jackson should receive heavy workloads this week.

Win the turnover battle: This has been a sore spot for the Bills thus far this season.  We're near the bottom of the league at a -3, having only forced 6 turnovers in our five games.  The Chargers on the other hand are sitting at +4, which is third in the NFL.  I'm guessing if these trends continue, we're not going to have a happy Sunday.  The Bills D needs to find some ways to get the ball for the offense, while the offense has to take good care of the rock this weekend.  The Chargers and their high-powered offense are not a team you want to turn it over against.

Get Lee Evans the ball:  I say this every week, and I'll probably say it every week going forward.  We need to get Lee Evans the ball more than 3-4 times a game as we have.  The third highest paid WR in the game needs many more touches than that.  I expect Evans to see some of Antonio Cromartie this weekend, which will be an extremely tough matchup for him.  Cromartie is big, physical and fast, not the type of CB Evans is built to beat. Schonert is really going to have to move him around this weekend, including putting him in motion, to prevent jams.  Some quick passes to Lee will be essential to open it up deep for him.  DaBolts believes Quentin Jammer will be matched up with Evans often to take away the deep ball.  If that happens, I like Evans to have deep ball success.  He can beat any CB in the league deep.  Jammer would be no exception.  I think it would be much tougher on him to be matched up exclusively with Cromartie and his physical play.

Win Special Teams:  The Chargers have a dynamic return man in Darren Sproles, assuming he's healthy, so it'll be a challenge for our coverage units this week.  It'd also be a great game for Leodis McKelvin to finally break a big kick return.  He's been solid, but has yet to really showcase the big play we saw in the preseason.  And with Roscoe Parrish back in the mix, our punt return unit should again have that big play element back in it's repertoire.  I just hope the thumb injury and wrap doesn't hinder his ability to hold onto the ball.

Simply put, WIN:  To me, this game is a season definer.  With a tough schedule coming up with 3 straight division games, including a tougher-than-anyone-could-have-expected-in-a-million-years road game in Miami next week, we really could use a victory this week.  With another playoff contender coming into our stadium, the Bills need to prove themselves capable of beating the better teams in the league.  It's been a struggle to do that for as long as we can all remember.  This week is a good time to help change that attitude and prove to the league that the Bills will be there all year.  If we can come out with a big W over the Chargers, we will be in GREAT shape going forward.  A loss and we're close to teetering the wrong way with road games 2 of the next 3 weeks.  A win really sets the stage for a great rest of the season.  A loss and we're really headed in the wrong direction.  This game could really define the rest of the season and how it plays out.

***

There you have it, keys to a big Bills win.  It's going to be a very, very difficult challenge for the team.  Let's hope they are up to it.  The Ralph hasn't rocked in almost a month, let's hope it is this Sunday.  Go Bills!

Reed could be in for a big game against San Diego (Associated Press)

What's the secret to being - and beating - a good football team?  The answers are varied, and depend largely on circumstance.  Therefore, considering the circumstances of this weekend's matchup between the Buffalo Bills and San Diego Chargers - good weather, an inconsistent Bills rushing attack, and a highly potent Chargers offense - there's an easy way for the Bills to be, and beat, a good football team on Sunday.

Do unto San Diego what Arizona killed you with.

Buffalo needs to keep the ball out of San Diego's hands for as long as possible.  The Chargers are susceptible to being controlled in this area of the game - in fact, they've held the ball for at least 30 minutes in just two of the six games they've played this season.  They're 2-0 in those games, and 1-3 in all other contests.  The Bills have a golden opportunity to continue that trend against San Diego.  They should do it through the air.

Ball control via air, not ground
When the Bills dropped a 41-17 decision to the Arizona Cardinals in Week 5, Buffalo should have noticed that the Cardinals were providing them with the offensive blueprint that could allow the Bills to handle the Chargers.  They controlled the clock, and thus the flow of the game, through the air.

Kurt Warner completed a whopping 33 of 42 passes, none of them for a gain longer than 18 yards.  That plan, coupled with efficiency in the red zone (Warner threw two touchdowns, and Edgerrin James and Tim Hightower rushed for three more), allowed the Cardinals to wear out the Bills' defense simply by keeping them on the field.  That opened up the Cards' ground game - which pounded out 113 yards on the day - and the efficiency allowed the Cardinals to chew up over 36 minutes of possession.

The formula worked to perfection.  The Bills have the pieces in place to execute such a scheme.  For a plethora of reasons, the Bills should make every effort to employ it in just over two days' time.  That type of attack has been a weakness for the Chargers for its first six games this season.

Controlling San Diego
The way to beat the Chargers isn't to "pressure Philip Rivers" or "shut down LaDainian Tomlinson" or "contain Antonio Gates".  The key to beating those three - along with the other explosive offensive weapons the Chargers possess - is to keep the ball out of their hands.  For as long as possible.  The ball control passing game does just that.

The Bills have struggled to run the ball.  So have the Cardinals.  They used a controlled passing game - with enough runs thrown in to keep the Bills honest - to open up their own rushing attack later in the fourth quarter.  The Bills have diverse weapons at running back, so the duo of Marshawn Lynch and Fred Jackson should be emphasized in each facet of the game.  They can contribute to a controlled passing attack, as can Josh Reed, James Hardy and - yes - even Lee Evans.

Trent Edwards' health is paramount.  Getting the ball out of his hands quickly increases his chances of survival.  It also reduces the pressure on Buffalo's pass protection, which has struggled.  And hey - if the Chargers decide to sit on the short game, it's their loss.  The Bills can beat them deep with a certain Mr. Evans and his 27 yards per catch.

Being scared of San Diego
Bills fans, for the most part, like to err on the side of caution.  Thus, when we look at the Chargers, we tend to mess ourselves a little when we see names like Rivers, Tomlinson, Gates and Chambers.  It's not unwarranted - clearly, San Diego has an explosive offense.

What gets lost in the shuffle of "ooo-ing" and "ahh-ing" over San Diego's weapons is the fact that the Bills match up very well with San Diego in the remaining two phases of the game, particularly when we have the ball.  In reality, San Diego's offense is the wild card of this game - and Buffalo's defense certainly has its hands full.  But so does San Diego's defense and special teams.

Don't forget the East Coast advantage.  Don't forget that the Chargers are crossing the Atlantic after this game.  But most especially, don't forget the most important factor of Sunday's contest - the Chargers have team weaknesses that the Bills are equipped to exploit.  Taking into account the raucous crowd that is sure to be at The Ralph this Sunday, I'm unusually confident that the Bills are going to find a way to pull out a W.  Call me crazy (and I'm coming close to doing it myself) - but if the Bills can control the flow of the game off the arm of Mr. Edwards, their chances of winning are quite good.

Mitchell, blitzers must be effective Sunday (buffalobills.com)

SB Nation completed the NFL wing of its blog section this past September when we announced the launch of our new Chargers blog, Bolts from the Blue.  So, naturally, I am pretty excited to introduce all y'all Rumblers to DaBolts, the upstanding fellow who heads up the BFTB project.

DaBolts has spent the first six weeks of the 2008 NFL regular season watching one of the most spectacularly inconsistent teams in the NFL.  The Chargers are coming off of a 30-10 pounding of the New England Patriots, however, and appear closer to hitting their stride offensively.  I asked (or tried to, at least) some tough questions of DaBolts about his Chargers.  He didn't flinch, and he didn't gloat.  Here's what he had to say about his team and their upcoming matchup with our Bills.

Buffalo Rumblings: The Chargers haven't won a game in the Eastern time zone since the 2006 season, when, ironically, they scraped by the Bills 24-21.  Their losing streak on the east coast has now reached three games, and they've won just two of six since the start of the '06 season.  How big a factor was the cross-country trip in those performances?  Do you see it continuing to be problematic this Sunday?

DaBolts, BFTB: I'm agnostic on the time change theory.  At least two of those losses were against an excellent Patriots team, and the Dolphins showed up ready to play.  Is it a factor?  Perhaps. I flew to Boston on business recently and have to admit a bit of fog, but the reality is that it is always tough to play on the road in the NFL and the Bolts have not played well enough to win.  I hate to admit it but the Dolphins just seemed hungrier to win that game.  If it is an issue, I don't see why the Chargers aren't heading out there a day or two earlier to allow for the time adjustment; I notice the Pats just stayed out West after beating the 49ers; they still came out flat.

Buffalo Rumblings: LaDainian Tomlinson's stats are down.  Clearly, he's not on the decline, but that hyper-extended toe of his is certainly causing some production problems.  How vital is it for Tomlinson to get back to his usual statistically dominant self?  Are the Chargers a legitimate Super Bowl contender if he continues to be hampered by this injury?

DaBolts, BFTB: Great question.  It's vital to get a running game back.  We just missed trading for Michael Bush out of Oakland for a second day draft choice.  Unless we come up with a coherent running game I don't believe we will go deep into the playoffs.  We have one of our posters who calculates success rates per Football Outsiders; against the Patriots only 4 of 28 running plays were 'successful'.  Near the end of the game a power running game that chewed clock would have put it away earlier.  We are one of the worst teams on time of possession despite putting up a lot of points for just this reason; this puts a lot of stress on our defense.

Some are questioning whether we should be giving more touches to Darren Sproles and Jacob Hester while LT is out; I tend to agree with that.  LT is making a good try, but he clearly is off his game.  The attempt to trade for another running back also bespeaks a lack of confidence in Hester that isn't encouraging.  The offensive line has battled injuries early; the other hope is that they start doing a better job opening up the lanes.  The lack of running game isn't all in the backs.

Buffalo Rumblings: San Diego's passing attack has been lethal this season.  Philip Rivers is the league's highest-rated passer and has already thrown 14 touchdowns this season, a category he leads alongside Tony Romo.  Is there a weakness to Rivers' game and the Chargers' passing attack overall?

Continue reading this post »

     
Buffalo Bills (4-1) vs San Diego Chargers (3-3)

Here's a quick update on the injury status of several Buffalo Bills players as we continue to slog through the work week awaiting the Bills' home date with San Diego...

QB Trent Edwards: It's official, folks - like, really official.  Edwards is going to play in this one less than two weeks after sustaining a concussion.  Edwards practiced both Monday and today at full force and says he "feels great".  We figured this would happen, but it's still great news to hear.

WR Roscoe Parrish: Buffalo's most explosive player - period - will also return to the field this weekend.  Parrish is slightly less than four weeks removed from thumb surgery, but he's practicing fully and catching both passes and punts.  This is an important guy to have on the field.  It's very relieving to hear he's back.

TE Derek Fine: The Bills' rookie tight end is no Tony Gonzalez, but he appears to be closer to being ready to make his NFL debut.  Fine likely won't play against San Diego, but should be healthy enough to play in Miami if the Bills see fit.

DE Aaron Schobel: This is the first bit of bad news (unless, of course, you don't like Aaron Schobel).  The Bills' starting right end missed the fourth quarter of the loss in Arizona with a bum foot, and today, Schobel was spotted with a walking boot on said foot.  Clearly, he didn't practice.  WGR 550 reports that Schobel calls himself questionable.  Like him or not, the Bills need him on the field.

CB Terrence McGee: We heard earlier in the week that McGee was likely to be a go for the Chargers game, but on Wednesday, McGee practiced on a limited basis.  It's unclear at this point whether or not McGee will practice, let alone take the field.  There's still reason for optimism, but having McGee isn't as certain as we once believed it to be.

CB Ashton Youboty: Compounding the fact that McGee remains injured is the fact that his starting replacement, Youboty, has also been limited by a left leg injury.  Youboty is far more likely to play at this point, but the fact that he's dinged is a concern.  If both McGee and Youboty can't go, rookie Leodis McKelvin would get the start next to Jabari Greer, with fellow rookie Reggie Corner serving as the team's nickel back.  Ouch.

FS Ko Simpson: He, like Schobel, also left before the end of the Cardinals game with a hamstring injury.  According to WGR 550, however, Simpson considers himself to be "over 90 percent" and plans to play on Sunday.  He was limited today; if he surprises and doesn't go, George Wilson will get the nod.

***

So, in short: Trent is back!  Collective sigh of relief.  The big concerns right now are the defensive injuries, particularly in the secondary.  We're about to take on a potent Chargers passing attack, and we're going to need every healthy defender we can muster.  I still believe that McGee will find a way to play, though his chances are certainly diminishing.  Schobel's injury is cause for concern as well; perhaps this will be an opportunity for rookie DE Chris Ellis to prove his worth.

     
Buffalo Bills (4-1) vs San Diego Chargers (3-3)
Sunday, October 19, 2008 1PM EDT

Unlike the Bills last two opponents, the Bills have faced the San Diego Chargers plenty of times in their history, 34 times to be exact. Most of those were during the 60's in the old AFL days, of course. The Chargers lead the all time series 21-11-2.

October 15, 2000: Bills 27, Chargers 24 (OT)
Neither team could run the ball very well.  The Bills had 95 rushing yards and the Chargers managed just 59, but both more than made up for it in the passing game. Jim Harbaugh threw for 287 yards and 2 scores, most of that to two guys, Jeff Graham (9-113) and Curtis Conway (7-143). The Bills countered with big days from Rob Johnson (321 yards and a TD) and Eric Moulds (11-170).  Jerry Ostroski even recovered a fumble in the end zone for a TD.  The game went to OT where Steve Christie won it with a 46 yard field goal.

October 28, 2001: Chargers 27, Bills 24
Doug Flutie helped the Chargers get revenge on the Bills by beating them almost exactly a year later by the same score the Bills beat them by. This game was back and forth until a Travis Henry 3 yard TD run put the Bills ahead 24-20 with 1:30 to play, but Flutie magic struck the Bills as 20 seconds later the diminutive one scored on a 13 yard scamper to put the Chargers ahead for good. Peerless Price had a nice day with 8 catches for 151 yards and a TD.

December 15, 2002: Bills 20, Chargers 13
Travis Henry (22 carries, 144 yards, 2 scores) out-dueled LT (28-110-1) showing off just how much talent he wasted. Two former Bills played for San Diego in this game; Doug Flutie replaced a mostly ineffective Drew Brees (13-24-148) but isn't much better himself (3-11-64), and Steve Christie (playing for San Diego) was 2 of 3 on field goals.

November 20, 2005: Chargers 48, Bills 10
Not much good about this one if you're a Bills fan. Drew Brees tossed 3 TD passes and led the Chargers to a 35-10 halftime lead. The Chargers D takes over from there, shutting out the Bills the rest of the way.  Sam Aiken caught a pass for 15 yards, so I guess that was a rare occurrence worth noting.

December 3, 2006: Chargers 24, Bills 21
LT ran wild in this one, to the tune of 178 yards on 28 carries and 2 scores.  The Bills meanwhile didn't muster a whole lot offensively. Willis McGahee managed just 26 yards on 16 carries. J.P. Losman had 26 yards rushing also, but at least it only took J.P. 6 carries.  Losman did throw 2 touchdowns, but also threw 2 picks, adding to the 4 total turnovers that the Bills had on the day.

It's an underrated factor when attempting to determine the winner and loser of a given NFL game.  We tend to concentrate on players, matchups and coaching strategies in said deductions.  But the simple fact of the matter that's often left out of the equation is this: it's really hard to travel three time zones and win a football game.

The Bills have played in three such games this season.  Two of those games took place in the comforts of Ralph Wilson Stadium; the Seattle Seahawks and Oakland Raiders made the trip across the country, and both came away with losses.  The Bills themselves made one trip across three time zones, and got blasted in Arizona by the Cardinals.

This Sunday, the Bills take on the San Diego Chargers in their third straight west-coast-host home game.  The Bills need to make good on what amounts to their greatest advantage in this matchup.

Cross-country trips in 2008
It's quite remarkable, really, just how determinant a factor the cross-country trip is this season in the NFL.  Thirteen such games have been played, and the road team is a dismal 3-10 in those matchups.  The Chargers themselves were victimized by the east-coast Carolina Panthers in a 26-24 opening day loss.  The San Francisco 49ers have lost consecutive home games to the New England Patriots and Philadelphia Eagles.  Those three cross-country wins stand out in what has otherwise been an unflinchingly rigid trend.

For further breakdown: when an East Coast team travels west, the road team is 3-4.  When a West Coast team travels east, the road team is 0-6.

San Diego on the east coast
This Chargers team, as talented as they've been over the past three seasons, aren't immune to this trend, either.  The Chargers - a combined 28-10 over the past two-plus regular seasons (since 2006) - have dropped some unexpected Ls on the east coast as they've gone 2-4.  The team hasn't won on the east coast since the 2006 season, and have lost three straight.

Unfortunately, one of their two wins came in Buffalo, when the Marty Schottenheimer-led Chargers beat the Bills 24-21 at The Ralph en route to a 14-2 season and yet another quick playoff exit.  They also won a barnburner in Cincinnati that season, 49-41, over what was then a potent Bengals attack led by Carson Palmer.

Otherwise, heading east has been a fruitless endeavor for San Diego.  The team lost a close game to Baltimore in 2006; they were handled by the Patriots and Jaguars in 2007; they traveled to Miami just two weeks ago and got beat by the Wildcats Dolphins.

The trends and the comfy confines of Ralph Wilson Stadium are on Buffalo's side this Sunday.  Keep this in mind throughout the week - and if you're going to the game on Sunday, realize it's your duty to accentuate this advantage by screaming until you know you'll be worthless at work on Monday.  The Chargers have good players, have advantages in key matchups, and have a good coaching staff.  But they're also facing stiff odds.