Sans running game, Bills making many mistakes (buffalobills.com)

Oh yeah... now I remember what is feels like to be a Buffalo Bills fan.  During the team's bye week, I wrote that the Bills were entering the most important four-game stretch of the season, calling it "make or break".  I stand by what I wrote, and through the first three of those four games, the Bills are 1-2.  A loss in New England this coming Sunday could very well break Buffalo's season, which got off to a promising 4-0 start.  The team has lost 3 of 4 to drop to 5-3 on the season.

It's been bad.  The Bills have been kind enough to provide their fans a little throwback to yesteryear, when shoddy play, questionable decision-making and a lack of playmakers led to eight straight seasons of playoff-less football in Buffalo.  We're still in that stretch, right?  This team is better, there's little question about that - especially at quarterback - but they're unable to avoid making the same irritating mistakes.  Welcome to Buffalo Bills football.

The most irritating part?  Buffalo isn't playing like Buffalo.  For two seasons under head coach Dick Jauron, the Bills remained competitive in games by limiting turnovers, avoiding penalties and playing sound in all three phases - if highly unspectacular.  They haven't come close to doing that in their two most recent losses, to division rivals Miami and New York.

Take a look at all the ugly!
Here are some "impressive" stats that the Bills have accrued over the past two games, both losses:

- 14 penalties for 109 yards
- 7 sacks allowed
- Safety allowed
- 3 interceptions
- 4 lost fumbles; 7 fumbles total
- Missed 4th & 1 in opponent red zone (effectively another turnover)
- Bad snap on punt

The Bills have lost these two games - unbelievably, miraculously, and other hyperbolic terms - by a combined 18 points.  Guess how many points off of turnovers the Bills have surrendered in these two games?  Your insight serves you well, young padawan.  The Dolphins and Jets have 18 points off of turnovers the last two weeks against the Bills - which, again, is a pretty miraculous statistic.

This isn't Dick Jauron football
Talk all you want about the Bills' weaknesses, their vulnerabilities, or the fact that they haven't been able to win winnable games.  Don't believe for a second, however, that the Jets and Dolphins are better football teams than Buffalo.  They're not.  Both of these are games that the Bills should have won - and, at the very least, they could have split them without the crap-fest stats list you see above.

I'm not going to sit here and blame any one individual, one unit, or one coach.  This is a team issue.  The Bills are not doing what their coach has preached over the past two years: protect the ball, limit mistakes, force your opponent to beat themselves.  How have the Dolphins and Jets won the past two weeks?  They've beaten us by playing Bills football.  That's what's most humiliating about this pathetic stretch of football the Bills have put together - we're not practicing what we preach, but our opponents are.

QB Trent Edwards, the main culprit for the team's struggles only in a statistical sense, is stepping up to the plate and taking the blame:

"The onus is on me," Edwards said. "I'm in charge of the football. I'm the person who runs this offense and I need to take care of the ball. That's why they have me in there at quarterback."

The fix isn't a difficult one for the Bills: don't do dumb things.  The Bills must now head to Foxboro and emerge victorious in what they've now made into their biggest, most important game of the season.  The New England Patriots aren't going to beat themselves; they rarely do.  This is a winnable game; the Pats are vulnerable.  But they're going to make Buffalo beat them.  The Bills can do it; the real question, however, is whether or not the Bills can avoid beating themselves.  Get back to basics, Buffalo, and the wins will return.  It's really as simple as that.

Lindell's reaction sums up Bills' slide (Associated Press)

Say it with me, kids: "Pretenders."

After a 4-0 start to the season, the Buffalo Bills have now dropped three of four - including two straight division games - to fall to 5-3.  The latest disappointment?  Sunday's 26-17 loss to the New York Jets.

Just two weeks ago, the Bills were 5-1 atop the division and considered the front-runners in a diluted - yet still highly competitive - AFC East.  Now they're 5-3, two games in the hole against their three biggest rivals, and are proving to have far more "pretender" than "contender" in them.  The kicker: they're doing it to themselves.

Sloppy play + no run game = ...
Let's get this out there straight away: the Bills did a lot of good things offensively today.  It didn't matter.  Three more turnovers, five more sacks of Trent Edwards and a turnover on downs deep in Jets territory led to just 10 offensive points despite the fact that the Bills were 8 of 13 on third downs and were able to make some plays through the air.

The biggest problem for Buffalo offensively - get ready for a shocker here - is that they're putting too much onto the shoulders of Edwards.  Second-year quarterbacks shouldn't face the burden that Edwards has during the past handful of games; sans any form of a rushing attack, Edwards has been forced to carry the team - and like any second-year quarterback, he's had his good moments and, unfortunately, more bad moments.  Simply put, if Buffalo can't find a way to run the football effectively, we're going to continue to see this type of offensive attack - effective statistically, but not when it really matters.

Can we dispense with the "Duke Preston should start at center" talk?  The young center was absolutely man-handled by Jets NT Kris Jenkins today to the tune of 5 tackles, 2 sacks and plenty of time spent on his (Preston's) rotund backside.  Jenkins also completely eradicated Buffalo's "running game"; Marshawn Lynch and Fred Jackson combined for a pitiful 31 yards on 16 carries.

Not even Favre can hand Buffalo a 'W'
Brett Favre did his best in the fourth quarter to keep the Bills alive; that's what he's done best this season, after all.  A Jabari Greer interception (extend him!) on a patented Favre duck was returned 42 yards for a score, cutting the Jets lead to 23-17 with 10 minutes to play.  The Bills defense then responded by allowing the Jets to take nearly 9 of those minutes off of the clock, surrendering the decisive field goal in the process.

Buffalo has got to find a way to get their opponents' offensive attacks out of rhythm, and they need to do it three weeks ago.  For two straight weeks, the Dolphins and Jets have methodically picked apart the Bills, eradicating the Aaron Schobel-less pass rush and sapping the Bills' energy and momentum in the process.  I don't care how it's done.  Something needs to change in that respect, because when the offense is in rhythm, the Bills can't make plays defensively.  It's as simple as that.

What do these two losses mean?  I'm struggling to find the broad perspective tonight, so I'll keep this to a personal level: for 8 weeks, including last week in Miami, I was a believer.  I believed Edwards could lead this team back from these types of deficits.  I believed our coaching staff could get this team to play inspired football.  I believed that this team, though young, was smart enough to learn from its mistakes.  But I'm not seeing Edwards do what we know he can do - and it's because he's not ready to carry the entire team on his shoulders.  I'm not seeing the coaching staff make smart decisions, both situationally as well as with personnel.  I'm seeing the team make the same mistakes week in and week out - turnovers, penalties, poor run blocking, etc.  Am I still a believer?  Not one bit.  There's a chance that this Bills team can still make the playoffs - heck, there's even a chance they could take the division.  I'll believe it when I see it.

Game Balls
Don't make me laugh.

Roll Call
Thanks to the 26 folks who stopped by today's game thread.  Kudos to Kurupt for once again holding down the fort during a home game; he also paced the day with 94 comments.  Joe P and D.O. each surpassed 50 as well.

geno227, Kurupt, silverstreak3k, Scoe221, StuckInNJ, NJBillsfan, BuffCrunch, Cinga, Joe P., D.O., fletcherjd, RabidBuffalo, Hopefulcynic, BearsNecessity, thefourwinds, The Buffalonian, Ron From NM, jdol1568, chaosthepitbull, GhostDogg47, BillsNorth, garycoleman69, killascript, roscoe11, keuka121, LeClaireBill

Here comes Foxboro.  Yeah.  "Crap" is right.

   
Buffalo Bills (5-2) vs New York Jets (4-3)
1:00 PM EST, Ralph Wilson Stadium
Keys to Victory :: Key Matchups :: Gang Green Nation :: Video Preview
BUF Injury Report :: NYJ Injury Report
Bills inactives: DE Aaron Schobel, OG Brad Butler, WR Josh Reed, RB Xavier Omon, CB Ashton Youboty, OT Demetrius Bell, DT John McCargo, QB Gibran Hamdan (3rd QB).
Lineup Notes: Duke Preston to start at C, Jason Whittle to start at RG, Ryan Denney to start at DE and James Hardy to start at WR.

The 5-2 Buffalo Bills are set to take on the 4-3 New York Jets in a second straight AFC East battle for our beloved Bills.  Let's make this simple: a Bills win re-establishes this team as the Patriots' main contender for a division crown, while a loss re-establishes this team among a vast pool of average NFL teams.  In short, this is a must-win for the Bills - not only when it comes to division standings, but their psyche as well.

The Bills will be without a few key starters, but the Jets aren't completely healthy, either - QB Brett Favre has been banged up all season, and MLB David Harris will miss this one.  Both teams are hurting, but both teams will be fighting tooth and nail for a win today.  This is going to be a good one, folks.

The team needs you today.  Even if you're not going to be at The Ralph, fire up your account and get ready to cheer on the Bills in this here game thread.  It's game time, folks.  GO BILLS!

   
Buffalo Bills (5-2) vs New York Jets (4-3)
Sunday, November 2 - 1:00 PM EST

Another week, another tough division battle.  After blowing a golden opportunity to really control the division last week in Miami, our Bills get a chance to get in the divisional win column against the Jets inside the raucous Ralph.  This is a crucial game in the context of the rest of the season; here are the keys to a big Bills win:

Get it going early: A fast start is something we're all hoping for, and Turk Schonert is striving for.  The play calling needs to be a tad bit more unpredictable.  The Jets are tough to run on (only 82.6 ypg), so being able to throw early will really give us a good chance to put some points on the board in the first half.  However, we can't simply abandon the run, as the Miami game may suggest, but instead vary up the run calls.  Enough with the numerous dives up the middle Turk, especially this week with big, fat Kris Jenkins and the force field that surrounds him taking on Duke Preston.  We had success against Miami off tackle and outside, two places we've been asking for more runs all season.  The Jets run the 3-4 just like Miami, so running outside away from Jenkins will be the way to get it done on the ground.  Marshawn Lynch has had very few opportunities to run to the outside this year, but every time he does, he makes something happen.  Why is this not a staple in the Offense?  Also, don't be surprised to see some more no-huddle.

Force the action defensively: Going up against Brett Favre and the gunslinger mentality, this is the perfect week to implement a ton of press coverage on the Jets' wideouts.  Favre absolutely LOVES throwing misguided passes into tight double coverage, so getting up on Laveranues Coles, Jerricho Cotchery and Chansi Stuckey will really increase the chances of getting some turnovers.  If Fewell plays Jabari Greer, Terrence McGee and Ashton Youboty 10 yards off the ball again, Favre will feast on the quick slant this week.  If teams like the Chiefs, Raiders and Bengals can play Favre tough, there's absolutely no reason we shouldn't be able to shut the Jets passing game down.  But if we sit back and wait for him to make the mistakes, we will be in for a long afternoon.  By the way, is there a better WR first name trio than Laveranues, Jerricho and Chansi in the NFL? I think not.

Win the turnover battle: Currently, the Bills turnover margin is sitting at -3, which is #23 in the NFL.  Our 2 losses have produced a whopping -7 margin (8 giveaways, just 1 takeaway), though it is debatable whether those turnovers cost us those games as 7 of them came when we were already losing.  They have obviously cost us chances to mount comebacks, but it's tough to say whether they are reasons we lost against Arizona and Miami.  Either way, the offense has to take better control of the ball, while our defense needs to step up and start forcing some turnovers.  We've only accumulated 4 ineterceptions on the season, with one coming in the last minute against Seattle.  That just isn't good, and there's no better time to pick off a few passes than when Brett Favre rolls into town.  This is one area that should really decide Sunday's winner.

Pressure Fav-ruh: Piggybacking the turnover idea, it's important to get into Favre's face and force him to throw when he's not ready.  Again, if he has time to throw and space to put it, he'll hurt us.  Getting after him with some blitzes will lead to his patented crazy throws, which should again increase the chance for turnovers.  I'm not afraid of Coles and Cotchery beating us deep, so we've got to get up on them and make Favre squeeze the passes in there quickly.  I'm not confident that this will be part of the game plan though.

Make Special Teams special again:  This has been an overlooked area of the team this year.  Quite frankly, the ST units have not lived up to their lofty expectations this year.  They have been solid, but other than the Seattle game, have been very unspectacular.  Kick coverage has been up and down, the punting unit has been mostly good but there have been mistakes (see snap last week) and the kick return team has been borderline bad.  Leodis McKelvin just doesn't look like a good kick returner out there.  He heads directly to the sideline EVERY time and rarely shows the propensity to cut back.  Maybe Bobby April is instructing him to take what he can for now, until he gets more comfortable, but this unit has been far from explosive this year.  McKelvin's instincts just haven't seemed to be there, we shall see what he develops into in the return game.  This week would be a great time for a big play.  Controlling Leon Washington in the return game is going to be another tough job for the Bills ST's this week.

Involve Evans early and often: Here's your weekly "get the ball to Lee Evans early in the game" key.  With Josh Reed out, it's going to be as important as ever to get Evans involved early.  Look for the Jets to really roll coverage to him this week, so Roscoe Parrish and James Hardy will need to step up. Roscoe wants the ball more, now is the time for him to take advantage of the opportunity.

Protect the home turf:  To be honest, this is a game the Bills shouldn't lose, and probably can't afford to lose.  Starting 0-2 in the division and heading to New England is NOT what the team needs come Monday morning.  Like I thought the Chargers game might be, this game is a season definer, one that sets the stage for the rest of the year.  A loss here with a tough game at New England next week is really not the downward spiral I want to see occur.  If we win this week, to finish the first half 6-2, we will be in great shape going forward, but another divisional loss, at home no less, would really put a damper on where this team might be headed.  Luckily, the rest of the AFC is a jumbled mess, but it'd be nice to rise above that quagmire.  I'd much rather head to New England next week with 6 wins and at worse, a share of the divisional lead with them.  I don't want to be a game back or in a 3 way tie including the Jets at 5-3.  Rise up Buffalo, it's time you win a big game against a team with a winning record for once!

***

Let's go Bills, dispose of the New York Bretts!  Make my daily life in NYC merrier!

   
Buffalo Bills (5-2) vs New York Jets (4-3)
Sunday, November 2 - 1:00 PM EST

In what has consistently been the most heated of all AFC East battles over the last few years, the 5-2 Buffalo Bills are set to host the 4-3 New York Jets this weekend in a renewed division rivalry.  Despite the fact that the Bills swept the Jets last season, this rivalry has been relatively even during the Tom Brady Era of the AFC East.  These two teams are now in the thick of the tightest division race in recent memory, heightening the importance of this game.

John Butchko of Gang Green Nation and I have singled out four key matchups for this game; rather than both provide break-downs of each matchup, we each took two and left the rivalry out of it.  We're saving the rivalry for game day; Buffalo needs to play with a bit more emotion than they did last weekend.  Here are the matchups, with each of our break-downs:

MATCHUP ONE: Jets CB Darrelle Revis vs. Bills WR Lee Evans
Butchko: The Jets have a pretty thin secondary. Aside from Revis, only Dwight Lowery might be capable of going one on one consistently with any kind of success against even an average receiver. This means Revis will probably be left on an island a lot with Evans. A vertical threat like Evans does give me cause for concern because Darrelle has been beaten deep a few times this season. Fortunately for the Jets, the opposition typically has not had the quarterback to exploit it. Trent Edwards will.  On a personal note, this matchup will serve as one of the agonies of playing fantasy football as Evans is on my team.  Advantage: Bills

MATCHUP TWO: Bills OT Jason Peters vs. Jets LB Calvin Pace
Galliford: I like Peters in this one.  Jason has been playing well, and although he hasn't reached his Pro Bowl level of 2007, he's probably also gotten a bad rap for giving up some plays in key situations.  I'd like to see Peters play a little harder and through the whistle - if he does that, he'll be one of the best at his position for a very long time.  Pace isn't an overwhelmingly athletic player, so if he picks up sacks, it'll be because Edwards is holding the ball too long.  Pace is a very good player, but he's the type of player that Peters has handled in the past.  Advantage: Bills

MATCHUP THREE: Jets NT Kris Jenkins vs. Bills C Duke Preston
Butchko: It is only fitting we look at this matchup, considering the wars Kevin Mawae and Ted Washington had for years in this rivalry. While the media fawned over the addition of Brett Favre, Jenkins was probably the biggest move the Jets made in the offseason. Teams have struggled to run against the Jets this year because Jenkins has been an immovable object in the middle of the line. He has gained penetration
constantly and kept his linebackers clean. The best nose tackles occupy two gaps. There have been times this season when Jenkins has occupied three gaps worth of blockers. With all of the attention he has drawn, it has benefited other players like Shaun Ellis, who has seen more one on one matchups and is putting together his best season since2003. Preston will have his hands full.  Advantage: Jets

MATCHUP FOUR: Bills ST kick coverage vs. Jets KR Leon Washington
Galliford: The Bills won't give Washington many opportunities to touch the ball on kicking teams.  Rian Lindell has mastered the "pooch kickoff", in which he pops a kick high into the air and an up man is forced to fair catch it at about the 30 yard line.  The Bills feel comfortable sacrificing field position to make the offense work for scores; unless the Jets get creative and move Washington around to fool the Bills, I doubt he gets more than one or two chances to return kicks.  Advantage: Push

Yesterday, we sat down with John Butchko of Gang Green Nation to discuss the upcoming Buffalo Bills versus New York Jets matchup.  I was also featured in an interview for The Fifth Down, a blog by The New York Times.  Today, we complete the trifecta of Jets blogger interviewing by sitting down with Gregg Gethard, who blogs at Game On for MSG.  I asked him the same questions that I asked John yesterday, and Gregg came back with some brief, yet more revealing answers.  I also did a reciprocal interview, so be sure to check that out.

Rumblings: How much patience do Jets fans have with Brett Favre?  When he throws untimely picks - against the Chiefs, no less - do you think "Hey, it's just Favre being Favre" or "Gosh, you know, I really wish he'd cut that crap out"?

Gethard: I think the past two weeks have started to end the "Brett Favre Honeymoon period". Jets fans were willing to give Favre a LOT of leeway. Last season the team was absolutely miserable and, to make it worse, the Giants (duh) winning the Super Bowl just made things worse. The Favre trade put the Jets on the front pages, and that's something that's really important to a downtrodden, angst-filled fan base.

Rumblings: Give us the low down on the Jets' defense this season.  No AFC East team has given up more points than the Jets; what are the strengths/weaknesses of this unit?

Gethard: I don't think the Jets defense has been that bad. The point total has been pushed up because the team has given up big totals against San Diego and Arizona, causing point inflation, much like an Ivy League school.

The team's run defense is obviously its strength. They're one of the tops in the league in stopping the run. Their linebacking corps has been really good all year long. Calvin Pace is one heck of a player. I've compared him to actor Ed Norton -- he's always very good and sometimes brilliant.

Their secondary needs some help, but Darrelle Revis is a star in the making.

Rumblings: This is Eric Mangini's third year on the job, and he orchestrated some pretty bold moves to get the Jets back into contention.  Is it "playoffs or bust" for Mangini, or is he squarely off of the hot seat in New York?

Gethard: Eric's slowly finding himself on the hot seat. He's been widely (and justifiably) criticized for the team's conservative Pat Buchanan-style playbook. The team has played well when they're forced to scramble and let loose. They haven't played so well running a traditional style. The offense has some horses - the ETA of Leon Washington becoming a household name is Week 13 - but they haven't been used right at all.

Mangini has another year, at least. But if he doesn't show anything by the end of next year, Bill Belichik is going to have an enormous smirk on his evil face.

***

We have one more interview segment to go, in which we'll sit back down with John Butchko to discuss some key matchups for the upcoming game.  That'll come your way later on today.

   
Buffalo Bills (5-2) vs New York Jets (4-3)
SB Nation's Jets coverage: Gang Green Nation

Coming off of an embarrassing road loss to Miami, the Buffalo Bills will look to rebound in just about three days' time in a home matchup with the equally hated New York Jets.  Naturally, we did our best this week to talk about the Jets with a Jets blogger - and our best was better than usual this week.  Not only will we be chatting extensively with Gang Green Nation over the next few days, we hope to also have insight from more "traditional" Jets experts, as well.  We'll start with GGN, however.

I'm pleased to point out that I was very graciously approached for my opinion on the upcoming matchup by The Fifth Down, a blog by The New York Times.  I, along with two other Bills bloggers, was asked for 100 words on the upcoming matchup.  I predicted a Bills win, 23-17.  I'll get into reasons why over the next few days.

What's embarrassing, however, is the lack of confidence that the other three bloggers showed in their respective teams.  Where the hell is the fan pride, people?  Two Bills fans picked the Jets.  The Jets blogger - who doubles as a staff writer for the Times - picked the Bills.  Trust me, we're thrilled to be associated with the Times, but the lack of "homerism", as it's so frequently put these days, is embarrassing.  At least one of us is keepin' it real.  I don't get to say that too often.

We'll start the blogging here with a Q&A with John Butchko of SB Nation's baby NFL blog, Gangrene Gang Green Nation.  (Whoops.  Not a blog about infection, though it's close... I kid, I kid.  But yeah, the Jets suck.  And hey, I've handled enough "Buffalo Rumblings" jokes to not feel bad about poking fun at the blog name.  It's quality, not the name of the blog, that counts.)  I asked John - a heck of a nice guy - a few questions, and as is his M.O., he provided some pretty detailed answers.  On to the interview...

Rumblings: How much patience do Jets fans have with Brett Favre?  When he throws untimely picks - against the Chiefs, no less - do you think "Hey, it's just Favre being Favre" or "Gosh, you know, I really wish he'd cut that crap out"?

GGN: The two are not mutually exclusive. Any Jets fan who has followed football in the last two decades knew what the team was getting in Favre. He is a guy who will make unbelievable plays like his fourth down prayer in Miami in Week 1. He also has no qualms about throwing into double coverage to try and make a play. Even though we all know of this tendency, it is still frustrating, and fans are growing weary.

Continue reading this post »

    
Buffalo Bills (5-2) vs New York Jets (4-3)
Sunday, October 2, 2008 1PM EST

I'm going to use the same format this week for the New York Jets as I did last week, (last 3 years instead of last 5 games) and we'll hope for better results out of the Bills this week. Let me just say, however, after watching the Jets play the Raiders and Chiefs the past two weeks, I feel much more confident playing at the Ralph this week, than I did last week. Anyway, the history...

October 16, 2005: Bills 27, Jets 17 (in Buffalo)
Starting QBs in this game; Vinny Testaverde for the Jets and Kelly Holcomb for the Bills, (was this only 3 years ago?).  Holcomb wins the match-up finishing the day 18-26 for 172 yards with two scores and two picks, compared to Vinnie's 12-26 for 161 yards, 1TD run and 2 picks. Johnathan "Freddie" Smith caught a TD pass in this one.

January 1, 2006: Jets 30, Bills 26 (in New York/New Jersey)
A game that I attended! Yet another memorable QB match-up; this time it's Holcomb taking on Brooks Bollinger.  Willis McGahee runs for over 100 yards (113) against the Jets yet again.  The Bills take the lead on a 36 yard Rian Lindell field goal, and yours truly (powered by a few over priced beers) begins to talk smack, only to get shut up 15 seconds later as Justin Miller returns the ensuing kick-off 95 yards for the win, and a long walk back to the car.

September 24, 2006: Jets 28, Bills 20 (in Buffalo)
Willis runs for 150 and J.P. throws for 328, tosses 1 TD and runs for another, but the Bills lose 2 fumbles, 1 of which is returned 32 yards by Victor Hobson for a TD, and the Bills fall at home to the Jets.

December 10, 2006: Bills 31, Jets 13 (in Jersey)
J.P. Losman hits Lee Evans for a 77 yard TD score, and for the second time in '06 Willis runs for over 100 yards in a game against the Jets (his only two 100 yard games that year).  This time, however, it's the Bills with the defensive score - Nate Clements' 58-yard pick 6 helps seal the win for the Bills.

September 30, 2007: Bills 17, Jets 14 (in Buffalo)
This was Trent Edwards' first career start, and his first win. A gutsy call on a 4th and 1 ends in Edwards' first career TD pass, a 1 yard toss to Micheal Gains.  The Bills D holds on to get the W. Rumblings recap.

October 28, 2007: Bills 13, Jets 3 (in Jersey)
An ugly, ugly, ugly game. Trent gets hurt late and J.P. steps in and throws one up for grabs that Lee Evans wrestles away from the Jets defenders for a 85 yard pass and catch to seal the win for the Bills. Rumblings recap.

One last side note; One of the fun parts about doing these recaps is to look into the Rumblings archives, and finding some of the better stories in there; if you've got the time check some of it out. Good stuff, like this, and this one, one of the best comment sections ever. I know Krytime will enjoy it.