Bills OC Turk Schonert(-Fairchild) (buffalobills.com)

Warning: what you are about to read is not news.  It may be to the Buffalo Bills - specifically, offensive coordinator Steve Fairchild Turk Schonert - but it's not news.  Not to anybody who pays the slightest bit of attention, at least.  I mean, for the love of the football gods, we talked about this exact topic two weeks ago.

The Buffalo Bills are painfully predictable on offense.  In other news, the Earth is round, dinosaurs are dead and Ralph Wilson is really, really old.

We can talk ad nauseum about Buffalo's problems offensively.  Most of them have to do with what has been awful offensive line play; a few center around QB Trent Edwards, as well.  I'm of the opinion, however, that it's close to impossible to accomplish anything when an opponent - a professional, National Football League opponent - can reasonably guess what's coming from Edwards and the offense 91 percent of the time.  Yeah - it's that bad, based on statistical evidence from Sunday's 20-10 loss to the New England Patriots.  The facts...

Pass plays at New England
Buffalo called 25 pass plays on Sunday.  23 of them came from the shotgun formation; that means that on 92 percent of his passes, Edwards is in the gun.  The two plays that came from under center represent 33 percent of Buffalo's "unpredictable" offensive play-calling in New England; the other two-thirds were split between ill-timed draws and the Wildcat formation.  More on that in a moment.

Of the 23 shotgun pass attempts, three of them came on 3rd and 2 yards or fewer to go.  The Bills did not run a single play-action pass all day, nor did they dial up a single traditional screen pass.

Run plays at New England
Buffalo called 20 run plays on Sunday.  16 of them came with Edwards lined up under center; two were shotgun draws (one of which was negated by a New England penalty), and two more came out of the Wildcat formation.  The Wildcat plays are being counted as obvious runs, because let's face it - not even Miami throws consistently out of that formation.  That means 18 of 20 (90 percent) Bills run plays fall under the "predictable" category.

The complete picture
Of the 45 plays the Bills dialed up in New England, a whopping 41 of them - 91.1 percent - were as predictable as a pro wrestling match.  91.1 percent of the time on Sunday, we could quite easily predict what the Bills were about to do offensively in terms of run and pass.  If we knew what was coming, what the hell did Bill Belichick know?

I laughed out loud on numerous occasions as I re-watched the film on this game.  Watching the Bills' offense is like behind handed the winning numbers for the lottery.  It's laughable knowing what's coming - until, that is, you realize how incredibly pathetic it is.

It doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out that this predictability is, in fact, the root of all of Buffalo's issues offensively.  92 percent of the time, opponents can blitz without gambling and confuse Edwards with complex coverages.  90 percent of the time, opponents can stack the box with Edwards under center and not worry about getting beat deep.  Want to blame Edwards?  Want to blame the offensive line?  Feel free.  Nothing is going to change, however, until the Bills start getting a bit more creative offensively.

Anyone know somebody "famous"?
Spread the word, Bills fans.  Know Turk Schonert-Fairchild?  Print this article off and slap him across the face with it.  Know someone in the "traditional" media?  Politely request that they stop asking stupid questions and explore this one.  This needs to be discussed on a much broader level than it currently is.  The vast majority of Buffalo's issues during this losing streak of theirs can be traced back to this singular problem.

We're just lowly bloggers, after all.  What do we know, right?  Apparently nothing - except what ails the Buffalo Bills, that is.

Buffalo Rumblings is not responsible for physical, mental or possession-related side effects produced by this article.  Reader must digest this information at their own risk - if indigestion is not a direct side effect, that is.  Possible side effects include - but are not limited to - nausea, vomiting, exploding brains, fits of rage, and/or broken computer monitors.

Cassel, Pats run over hapless Bills (Associated Press)

For the third consecutive week, the Buffalo Bills dropped a key divisional game against a solid AFC East rival.  A 20-10 loss to the New England Patriots is Buffalo's fourth loss in their last five games, and leaves them at the bottom of the division less than a month after leading it.

The Bills committed two more turnovers in an abysmal offensive effort that negated solid efforts by Buffalo's defense and special teams.  Left on the field for far too long, Buffalo's defense eventually broke, allowing the Patriots to chew up over 37 minutes of possession time, 144 rushing yards and all of the momentum in this one.  The Bills only lost by 10, but it could have been much, much worse than that - and it probably should have been.

Offense plays terribly
Trent Edwards threw two more interceptions today, and not even a late garbage-time touchdown pass to James Hardy could elevate his QB rating above a paltry 52.8.  He completed 14 of 23 passes for just 120 yards, with the score and two picks.  Once again, Edwards struggled without a solid running game - the Bills rushed for 60 yards on the day, doubling the pathetic 30 they picked up against the Jets last week - and was erratic while enduring a steady Patriots pass rush.  This was easily Edwards' worst performance as a pro; the stats don't tell the whole story.  Buffalo got nothing going offensively.

The predictability of Buffalo's offense is laughable.  One of my key areas of focus tomorrow while reviewing film is going to be putting a percentage to the number of times Edwards throws from under center.  We've seen this predictability before; the fact that it remains an issue is, quite frankly, absurd.

Marshawn Lynch fought hard for the 46 rushing yards he did pick up (averaging 3.3 yards per carry).  Roscoe Parrish was the team's leading receiver with 4 catches for 31 yards; Lee Evans had just 2 receptions for 22 yards in what was easily his worst performance of the season as well.  Teams continue to focus on negating Evans, and it's working wonders.

D, Special Teams keep it close... for a while
While getting no help from the offense, Buffalo's defense and special teams kept this game competitive into the fourth quarter.  The D held the Patriots to just a field goal after Edwards' first interception, and forced a fumble on a Matt Cassel sack after Trent's second pick.  Allowing just 3 points off of turnovers allowed the Bills to stay alive - or, rather, it would have if the offense wasn't playing so terribly.

In the end, however, Buffalo was once again unable to get off the field in the fourth quarter, allowing the Patriots to chew up over 9 minutes of game clock in the fourth quarter.  The Patriots converted 11 of 18 third downs, Cassel scrambled for 22 yards and a score, and rookie undrafted free agent BenJarvus Green-Ellis picked up 105 yards and a score on the day.

Leodis McKelvin's 85-yard kickoff return late in the game, along with a strong punting effort from Brian Moorman (four punts downed inside New England's 20) highlighted an excellent special teams effort by the Bills.  The team also did well containing top-flight Patriots returners Ellis Hobbs, Wes Welker and Kevin Faulk.

Three big games coming up
The Bills fell flat on their faces in the toughest stretch of their schedule, and now sit at 0-3 in the division.  The team now plays three very winnable games in a row - at home against Cleveland on Monday Night, at Kansas City, and at home against San Francisco.  Needless to say, anything less than 3 wins in that stretch would likely relegate the Bills to also-ran status in the AFC - if they're not there already.

Game balls
There were some contenders, but a Bills loss negates the need to reward anyone.  If you're looking to hand out "anti-game balls", come on down, Turk Schonert, Trent Edwards and Dick Jauron.  (Yes, I said it.)

Roll Call
Thanks to ALL 34 folks who joined me in today's game thread, and props once again to WABillsFan who paced us all with a healthy 145 comments.

Ron From NM, StuckInNJ, taskersd, silverstreak3k, WABillsfan, BuffaloBrewed, Slimmons, SebastianPruiti, thatguy34, MonStarr_716, fletcherjd, D.O., NJBillsfan, Thronsen, BeastMode, ccthemovieman, keuka121, TheK-GunNeedsReloaded, Kumario!, bullruns, krytime, Cinga, keysh67, NJBill, geno227, Memphisbillsfan, jdol1568, Gino Parilli, TheAfghanTwilight, Hopefulcynic, Kurupt, chaosthepitbull, bflobob8, savedbychrist

   
Buffalo Bills (5-3) at New England Patriots (5-3)
1:00 PM EST, Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA
Keys to Victory :: Key Matchups :: Pats Pulpit :: Video Preview
BUF Injury Report :: NE Injury Report
Bills inactives - RB Xavier Omon, WR Josh Reed, OT Demetrius Bell, OG Brad Butler, DE Aaron Schobel, LB Teddy Lehman, SS Donte Whitner

The Buffalo Bills are set to take on the New England Patriots in a battle atop the AFC East in just under an hours' time.  I don't have much to say about this one, because we all know what's at stake.  After two straight divisional losses, the Biils face what is essentially a must-win in a stadium from which they have not emerged victorious since 2000.  Without a win, Buffalo falls to 5-4 - a record they also held in 2007, when they finished 7-9.

This is your open game thread for today's game.  I'll be here, as always, and hope to see as many of you as possible here as well.  If you're a lurker and would like to join in for today's thread, create an account and hop right on in.  This is a big one.  Get your game faces on, and GO BILLS.

  
Buffalo Bills (5-3) at New England Patriots (5-3)
Sunday, November 9, 1:00 PM EST - Gillette Stadium

After a second consecutive divisional loss, the Bills look to rebound in their personal house of horrors this week.  Going into Gillette Stadium wounded and on the down slope, the Bills need to find a way to play better than they have and win this extremely important divisional game.  Here's how they can do so:

Don't play scared and soft: For years now, it has appeared the Bills have gone into the majority of their Patriots' games expecting to lose.  They've come out and been manhandled instead imposing any sort of will in the games.  They've sat back and let the Pats kick them in the stomach.  Well, Tom Brady isn't walking through that door any time soon, so now is the time for the Bills to stick it to the Pats.  They can't come out and look like the same scared bundle of nerves that we've seen in the past.  Dick Jauron has to get these guys fired up and ready to punch back at the Patriots.  Take a page from the Dolphins' book here, play physical and tough.

Run the ball:  It just seems so simple, yet so difficult for the Bills this year.  Turk Schonert has to find ways to get this offense moving on the ground.  That probably includes more runs off tackle and to the outside, and fewer runs behind center.  Get the ball to Lynch and Jackson in space!  Whether he will stick with the run game this week depends on how well we can run it early.  Our offense is much easier to stop when we don't run it well.  It's also time for the high paid OL to start playing better.  It's been WAY too long.  It will be a tough task this week against a good New England front 7.

Lee Evans:  Here's your weekly reminder, get Evans the ball.  Going up against the corpse of Deltha O'Neal and rookies Jonathan Wilhite and Terrence Wheatley, Evans should have plenty of opportunities this week.  This is the perfect week for Evans to finally have a good game against the Pats.  We desperately need it now.  We also need James Hardy and Roscoe Parrish to step up in a big way this week.  A Hardy coming out party would be much appreciated.

Protect the rock:  Enough with the turnovers, Trent.  Hang on to the ball and put some points on the board.  We aren't winning this week with another 3 turnover game.  Not only does Edwards have to play better, but the OL needs to protect him much better than it has.  The Pats will be coming after him, so this is an area of importance again.

Disrupt Wes Welker:  With Matt Cassel's affiniity for throwing underneath and finding Welker, it's going to be important to disrupt their timing and stick with Welker.  Whether it's Reggie Corner or Leodis McKelvin matched up against him inside, they need to play up on him and make his release difficult.  If Welker can get off the line without a problem, he should be able to scour the middle and kill us underneath.  We can't let Cassel sit back and hit the underneath stuff like that.  By disrupting his timing and playing up on Welker, we've got to make Cassel do things he's not accustomed to. 

Find a pass rush, please:  Cassel is still a young QB that is extremely inexperienced, even after 7 starts.  He's been sacked a ton this year and that needs to continue this week if we want to shut down their offense.  I want to see the Bills pressuring and harassing Cassel, forcing him into mistakes instead of letting him sit there and hit his check-downs.  Again, this will fall into the "don't play soft" key...

Make a play on Special Teams:  They haven't been that special this year, but the talent and coaching is still there.  It's time we see a huge return again, and this would be the perfect week for it.  McKelvin looked better returning kicks last week, as he finally started making some cuts and utilizing his instincts more.  Roscoe has been bottled up as a punt returner since the opener, so it'd be nice to get him going again.  Of course, the defense has to force a punt from deep in the opposition's territory, something that we seemingly haven't done in a few games, at least.

Don't shoot yourself in the foot:  There have been too many mistakes the past two weeks, from missed blocks and dropped passes to turnovers and penalties.  These have to stop if we plan to beat New England.  The Dolphins and the Jets beat the Bills, but it was mostly Buffalo's doing.  New England and Bill Belicheck will definitely find ways to take advantage of any Bills mistakes.  It's time to limit those and play smarter football.  We won't be winning this week if the mistakes continue to pile up.  There needs to be better discipline by the coaches and better on-field discipline by the players.  Own up to your mistakes and quit making them!

Play with some urgency:  Against the Jets, it never seemed the team was feeling that sense of urgency they needed.  In turn, they never really got back into the game or gave themselves a chance to regain the lead.  To me, they just never seemed to feel that their backs were up against the wall.  I tend to feel that was part of the reason for so many mistakes.  Earlier in the year, against Oakland, the team really looked like they felt that urgency, and in turn responded with a comeback win.  I haven't seen that the past two weeks.  This week, facing a potential 3-game losing streak (and 4 of 5) and an 0-3 divisional record, their backs are squarely against the wall.  I want to see them come out knowing they have to win, something that just hasn't been the case recently, or in the past few years.

***

This is a tough, but very winnable game if we don't play another poor game.  We've played pretty poorly for much of the season, so it's going to take the extra effort to get it done this week.  With no Tom Brady, this is as good a chance as ever for the Bills to beat the Pats during their dynasty years.  More importantly, this is a must-win if the Bills want to win the division this year.  We also can't afford to fall to 0-3 in the division and expect to get a wildcard berth ahead of one of our divisional opponents.  Get it done Bills, this is a HUGE week and will set the stage for either another disappointing season or a potential playoff run.

Can Cassel get the ball deep to Moss? (boston.com)

The New England Patriots are set to host the Buffalo Bills on Sunday in what can easily be considered the most relevant game the teams have played with one another in quite some time.  The two teams are among three tied for the division lead in the AFC East - a division in which all four teams are separated by just one game.  New England is 1-1 in the division (with a road win over the Jets), while the Bills are 0-2.  Both teams have lost to the Dolphins.  Needless to say, both teams are eager to turn around their in-division woes.

Both teams are dealing with injuries, which makes the game even more competitive, if a bit diluted.  Naturally, however, several key matchups - and which teams can control them - will play a large role in determining Sunday's winner.  Pats Pulpit and Buffalo Rumblings recently collaborated about three such matchups; here's how each matchup was broken down by Pats and Bills fans:

MATCHUP ONE: Patriots WR Randy Moss vs Bills CB Jabari Greer
MaPatsFan, Pats Pulpit: Jabari Greer has had a good start to 2008.  With 28 solo tackles, he's well on his way to beating his 2007 total of 41.  Oh, let's not forget the 2 interceptions and TDs!  The interception and score against New York was highlight reel worthy, for sure.  On the NE side, Moss has struggled a bit, but most of that is by design.  QB Matt Cassel has yet to develop the long ball with Moss and they're turning him inside where he's not comfortable.  Hence, we haven't seen a lot of production.  Against Indy, his job was decoy, keeping S Bob Sanders out of the box most of the game.  The key to winning this matchup?  Greer is 5-11 and Moss is 6-4.  It doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure this one out - throw the ball over Greer's head!  Advantage: Patriots

Brian Galliford, Buffalo Rumblings: To be honest, I'm not concerned about Moss in this one.  Yes, he's quite clearly still capable of making huge plays, and the Pats will undoubtedly target him early in this one as they attempt to get out to an early lead.  I'm just not especially enthralled with the playing preferences of Matt Cassel.  The Bills need to weather that early storm; if they do, this Greer vs Moss matchup becomes much more about the run than the pass.  New England is going to run the football; Moss can hardly be considered an effort blocker.  He'll decoy a lot, as MaPatsFan alluded to, so Buffalo's corners - Greer in particular, but also Terrence McGee - will need to pitch in to stop the run.  If they don't, it'll open the passing game up for Randy and company.  Advantage: Push

MATCHUP TWO: Bills C Duke Preston vs Patriots NT Vince Wilfork
Brian Galliford, Buffalo Rumblings: Ugh.  This one is going to be ugly.  I consider Vince Wilfork a better player than the Jets' Kris Jenkins, and Jenkins absolutely destroyed the interior of Buffalo's offensive line last week.  What's more, New England's defense is designed to funnel run plays toward Wilfork.  Preston doesn't stand a chance against him, and I'm not particularly confident that Wilfork can be contained even if he's triple-teamed.  Advantage: Patriots

MaPatsFan, Pats Pulpit: Both Preston and Wilfork are young and large, pushing 325 pounds, but Preston has a height advantage at 6-5 to Wilfork's 6-2.  If Wilfork is to win this battle, he needs to get under Preston and use Duke's extra three inches to stand him up.  Running a 3-4 most of the time, that's what the Pats demand of their front defensive 3 - jam the line.  This'll be cool to watch, because the only C I've seen Vince have trouble with is Indy's Jeff Saturday.  Battle in the pigpile; this oughta be fun.  Advantage: Patriots

MATCHUP THREE: Patriots RB Kevin Faulk vs Bills MLB Paul Posluszny
MaPatsFan, Pats Pulpit: Paul is sitting 23rd overall for total tackles; not too shabby for a young mike who missed a lot of 2007 with a broken arm.  Did I mention he's right behind New England's rookie ILB Jerod Mayo?  Just thought I'd letcha know.  I think this will be interesting because the Pats have been using rookie RB BenJarvus Green-Ellis quite a bit and he's doing very well.  My sense is they'll let BenJarvus take the lumps and then bring Faulk in for the third down conversions, similar to his role of past years.  Green-Ellis has been coming along nicely which frees Faulk up for those conversions and options.  If Posluszny isn't smart, he'll get burned by Faulk who does everything from running to receiving to blocking; he's an everything guy who's hard to keep track of.  Advantage: Patriots

Brian Galliford, Buffalo Rumblings: Faulk is one of those guys that's both easy to respect and easy to hate just because of the player he is.  MaPatsFan has this one right; Faulk will be protected by Green-Ellis until he's needed, and he's hurt the Bills in the past playing this exact role.  He's never faced Posluszny, however; Paul has proven to be one of the best open-field tacklers I've ever seen.  He kept San Diego's Darren Sproles and New York's Leon Washington largely under wraps, and they play similar roles to Faulk's in New England.  I don't think Faulk is going to be particularly effective Sunday, though I do expect the Patriots to run well enough to keep themselves balanced.  Advantage: Bills

***

Agree? Disagree? Have a matchup of your own that you'd like to toss into this conversation?  Let's talk Bills and Patriots, with matchups the focus.  This is going to be a fun game.

One win rights the ship for Edwards, Bills (buffalobills.com)

I'll admit it.  I've been a little negative this week.  Not that the Buffalo Bills didn't deserve my negativity, of course - three losses in four tries will engender that response.  After a 4-0 start, the Bills are now 5-3 and face the daunting task of a must-win game in Foxboro.

During the down period for the Bills, several team weaknesses have appeared - a porous offensive line; a non-existent run game; the lack of a consistent pass rush defensively; the inability to shut down opponents' controlled passing attacks; turnovers, turnovers and more turnovers.  It's been bad.  But unlike seasons past, there's still opportunity for these Bills.

The Miami Blueprint
Think back to Week 3 of this season.  At that point, the 0-2 Miami Dolphins were visiting the 2-0 Patriots.  Miami lost a tough opener to the New York Jets, then went out to Arizona and got embarrassed on the road (something the Bills and their fans should be familiar with).  The Patriots, meanwhile, had survived the season-ending knee injury to Tom Brady by beating the Chiefs in their opener, and had gone into New York and taken down the Mighty Favre behind the play of Matt Cassel.  Things were not looking bright for Miami, that's for sure.

Then Miami pounded New England 38-13.  I remember, as I sitting in Ralph Wilson Stadium watching the Bills come back to beat the Raiders, seeing the final score and thinking one thought: "Where the hell did that come from?"  The Bills a lot of things; that includes being capable of that type of performance.

The question I ask of you this morning is this: is it so crazy to believe the Bills can't pull off a similar feat?

Giving yourself a chance
How did Miami beat New England that day?  Obviously, "The Wildcat" didn't hurt, but I'd rather believe that it was the fact that Miami didn't shoot themselves in the foot.  They didn't turn the ball over offensively.  They forced two turnovers themselves (an interception and lost fumble by Cassel), sacked Cassel five times (four by Joey Porter), and watched as the Patriots effectively beat themselves.

That's something Buffalo has excelled at these past two weeks.  I wrote earlier this week that the Bills are beating themselves - and it's true.  Without the seven turnovers, seven sacks, safety allowed and 14 penalties the team has accrued against the Dolphins and Jets collectively, the Bills have far more than a fighting chance in both of those games, despite their weak areas.  Beating New England in New England is achievable - as long as the Bills don't beat themselves first.  New England rarely beats themselves; the Bills can't, either, or an opportunity is lost.

Opportunity, however, is exactly what this game is all about for Buffalo.  Despite the fact that the team has reverted to some old ways of late, the team is still very much in the thick of things in a suddenly ultra-competitive division.  The Bills have stumbled, but they've still got an opportunity to grab this division by its proverbial cojones and waltz into the playoffs.  Beating New England in Foxboro is more possible than many realize.  Opportunity is knocking, Buffalo.  One win rights the ship.