"And now for something completely different!"  Yes, I'm a Monty Python fan but the reference is more to the nature of this posting. I generally prattle on endlessly about what this lineman did or didn't do on that play. I've had something of a busy week so I'm more than a little pressed for time - hence a completely different sort of posting for me.

I've been one of those guys sitting on the fence regarding Buffalo's QB situation. Basically, I root for whomever is playing at the moment whether it be Trent Edwards or J.P. Losman. They each have their positives (cannon arm vs unperturbed nature) and negatives (highly excitable in a bad way vs something less than a cannon arm). Well, I'm a fence sitter no more.

I didn't expect to see a lot of positives come out of the Miami game but I did. As I was watching the game and breaking down how each lineman did on every play (yes, I still did it. I just don't have time to write about it), I began to notice something about Edwards when it came to how he dealt with blitzes. The Dolphins blitzed on 13 of 42 pass attempts (31%). Edwards responded with 1 incompletion (pass 6 to Josh Reed which was almost intercepted), 1 scramble for 9 yards and 11 completions. The grand total - including the scramble and pass 42 which Royal caught and promptly fumbled - was 150 yards (11.5 yards per play) and 7 first downs. Now that is production. And it was consistent production in the face of pressure.

That made me curious so I went back and looked over my notes of the San Diego game. Only 10 pass plays were broadcast and the Chargers blitzed on 7 of them. Edwards had 1 incompletion, 1 scramble for 12 yards, and 5 completions. The total haul for that game under pressure was 77 yards (11.0 yards per play), 5 first downs and 1 TD. Edwards was only in for one blitz of the Cardinals game but that went for a first down and 13 yards.

The past couple of games represent real progress for Edwards when it comes to dealing with the blitz. In the Rams game Edwards had 3 sacks, 4 incompletions (1 drop), 1 scramble, 4 completions, 3 first downs and 1 TD. That was 70 net yards (5.4 per play). In the Raiders game Edwards had 1 sack, 4 incompletions (2 drops), 1 INT, 4 completions, and 1 scramble. That netted 48 yards (4.4 yards per play), 2 first downs and 1 TD. The Jags blitzed only 4 times and Edwards had 3 completions, 3 first downs and 1 sack. That netted 50 yards (12.5 yards per play), thanks largely to Barnes' improbable 33 yard gallop. Against Seattle's 4 blitzes Edwards had 3 completions, 2 first downs, and 1 defensive holding penalty that resulted in another first down. Blitzes in that game netted 22 yards, or 5.5 yards per play.

Overall, Edwards has been blitzed on 53 of 214 (24.8%) pass plays. He has thrown for first downs on 24 of those 53 (45.3%) blitzes. Setting aside the 5 sacks and 4 scrambles brings his actual passing stat line against the blitz to 32 of 44 (72.7%) for 421 yards (13.2 yards per completion, 9.6 yards per attempt), 3 TDs and 1 INT. Think about that for a second.  He's getting a first down almost half the time against blitzes and 75% of the time when he completes the pass. The bottom line is that Edwards is very good against the blitz. Teams have to pick their poison: go after him and get burned or sit back and let him dink and dunk his way down the field. Oh, and 3 of Edwards' 12 (25%) incompletions against the blitz were dropped so his numbers would be even better if the receivers had done their part.

Look for the Jets to respect his ability to function in the face of pressure and blitz something less than 35% of the time. They like to dink and dunk anyway.

***

I thought I'd read somewhere on Rumblings that some people were thinking that Duke Preston should start instead of Melvin Fowler. Silly people. Preston had a total of 7 bad run plays (all but 1 at center) and killed 4. He added 2 bad pass plays and 1 killed pass play for good measure. He personally killed 3 of the 11 (27.3%) of the Bills' drives in Miami. He's so bad that I'm placed in the awkward position of defending Fowler's hold on the starting gig - and most of you know how much I loathe Fowler. Of course, I should note that Fowler's lone run play of the game was bad and he had a bad pass play as well. He can trot out the gimpiness excuse but, frankly, he's not any good when he's healthy.

Whittle was just kind of there, which is pretty much what we expect from him. He did have one really notable play; Edwards' lame duck INT was due to Whittle being beaten by a swim move. His guy crashed into Edwards as he released the ball sending it fluttering lazily towards a waiting DB.

The Buffalo Bills' final injury report for this Sunday's tilt with the Miami Dolphins is out, and once again there are some pretty big names on it.

DE Aaron Schobel: He has been officially ruled out by head coach Dick Jauron and will miss just the second start of his career.  The official site's Chris Brown reports that Schobel is making progress, but his foot remains in an immobilizer boot.  Rest assured that the Bills won't allow Schobel to hit the field until he's 100 percent - they want him completely healthy for the stretch run.  Ryan Denney will start in Schobel's stead, just as he did last week in the win over San Diego.

CB Terrence McGee: Listed as questionable.  He's been limited in practice all week, but Jauron admitted - again according to Chris Brown - that he didn't want to give McGee a full work load this week.  We heard last week that McGee would be good to go against San Diego; clearly that didn't manifest itself, but the injury was described to us as "very close" earlier this week.  I think McGee plays and starts in this one.

CB Ashton Youboty: Listed as questionable.  He was active last week against San Diego, but largely for numbers purposes.  He didn't play a snap.  McGee appears to be much closer to going this week than Youboty, and one of the two is going to play.  Again, my money is on McGee, and if he does, Youboty won't play.  Leodis McKelvin would take over the nickel role, with some of the team's safeties playing their roles as well.

OG Brad Butler: He's out.  He didn't play much against San Diego after spraining his knee; I, for one, didn't even realize he was out in that game for quite a while.  It's unclear how long he'll be out; until he returns, Jason Whittle - the Bills' oldest and most tenured player - will get the start.

C Melvin Fowler: Listed as questionable.  He's been limited in practice this week, and just like Schobel, I don't think the Bills are in any hurry to get Fowler back into the lineup until he's completely healthy.  I agree with Brown on this one - even if Fowler is active, I think his understudy, Duke Preston, will make his second straight start.  With Butler out, however, it may be imperative for Fowler to dress in case another guard goes down and they need to move Preston around.

TE Derek Fine: For the first time in his young NFL career, Fine is completely healthy and ready to play.  Whether or not he'll be active is another question entirely.  My guess is that he won't; the sooner they can get him in on special teams units, however, the better - the team is going to miss John DiGiorgio.

     
Buffalo Bills (5-1) at Miami Dolphins (2-4)
Four key matchups and who wins them

The Buffalo Bills are set to square off in Miami with the Dolphins this coming Sunday as the Bills look to open the divisional portion of their schedule with a bang.  In anticipation of the rivalry game, Matty I of The Phinsider along with yours truly have gotten together for a little debate about four of this game's key personnel matchups.

Here's what each of us had to say about the four matchups we decided to break down.  Surprisingly, there wasn't much differentiation of opinion between the two of us; still, it's good for a little debate on a Friday at work.  Take a gander and have at it in the comments section.

MATCHUP 1: Dolphins OLB Joey Porter vs. Bills' O-Line
Brian Galliford: The Bills struggled early in the season in pass protection; they gave up 16 sacks in the team's first 5 games.  Coming off of the bye week, however, the Bills faced a pretty stiff Chargers pass rush - including the underrated Shaun Phillips - and Trent Edwards wasn't sacked once.  In fact, he wasn't even hit.  Jason Peters appears to be fully restored to prominence after an off-season holdout, and when at full strength, pass blocking has always been this line's strong point.  Joey Porter is an excellent player having an outstanding season, but I don't think he's going to get too many opportunities to hit Edwards.  Advantage: Bills

Matty I: While the Bills offensive line did a much better job protecting Trent Edwards last week, I'm still not sold on them.  They've still given up the 9th most sacks in the league despite shutting down the Chargers' pass rush and Football Outsiders ranks Buffalo's pass protection 24th in adjusted sack rate - which is a stat that takes into account the number of sacks allowed per pass attempt while considering things like opponent, down, and distance.  I think Joey Porter is going to be moved around a little bit more than usual - especially if Jason Peters is having a good game, which would mean Porter would have some pass-rushing opportunities against RT Langston Walker.  And I'd be shocked if Porter doesn't at least pressure Edwards on a consistent basis.  Advantage: Dolphins

MATCHUP 2: Dolphins DT Randy Starks vs. Bills C Duke Preston
Brian Galliford: Look, I'm as down on Buffalo's centers as anyone.  Duke Preston hasn't played much at the position, and Melvin Fowler has struggled mightily throughout his tenure in Buffalo.  Fowler is a smart guy, but he's simply lacking physically.  Preston is a bit bulkier, but he struggles at the point of attack as well.  With that in mind, we know all about Randy Starks - we heard bad things about him this past off-season.  Twice, actually.  He's playing out of position this week, to boot.  Considering that Preston and his interior line mates just kept San Diego's Jamal Williams under control, I'm not particularly concerned about Starks.  Advantage: Bills

Matty I: With it looking more and more likely that Jason Ferguson won't be able to play on Sunday (and if he does, wouldn't be at full strength), Randy Starks has to step up.  He'll be playing out of position and he didn't play particularly well last week.  His inability to take on blockers and free up Miami's linebackers really hurt the Dolphins' ability to stuff the run.  And though Marshawn Lynch doesn't have great numbers, he's still a good back.  Luckily, neither Melvin Fowler or Duke Preston are particularly good centers.  But Preston, with help from the guards, did a surprisingly good job on Jamal Williams last week.  The Dolphins' coaches will be hoping for a Jay Ratliff type of performance from Starks - who had little to no experience as a NT last year in Dallas when he filled in admirably for Ferguson after Ferguson went down with an injury.  But I'll be honest: I'm a bit worried about this matchup heading into Sunday.  Advantage: Bills

MATCHUP 3: Bills WR Lee Evans vs. Dolphins CB Will Allen
Brian Galliford: Evans has been excellent this season.  I doubt he's ever going to be a guy who dominates a game from start to finish, as guys like Owens and Moss have proven themselves to be, but he's explosive.  He's killed the Dolphins, too - much like former Dolphins WR Chris Chambers routinely killed the Bills.  Evans was dominant this past weekend with Antonio Cromartie on his hip; I highly doubt Will Allen will fare much better.  Advantage: Bills

Matty I: Ugh.  Just the mention of Lee Evans sends chills down my spine.  He's the epitome of a Dolphin-killer.  In just 8 career games against the Fins, Evans has 8 touchdowns (averaging a TD every 3 catches against Miami) and averages 22.2 yards per catch.  While Trent Edwards doesn't throw the deep ball as good as J.P. Losman (at least, form what I've seen), he can still sling it and is more accurate on those intermediate throws.  On the positive side, Will Allen has shown that he can defend the smaller, faster receivers better than the taller, more physical ones.  And Allen has had at least a little success against Evans, like when he held Evans to just 2 catches for 19 yards in their first meeting back in 2006.  Even still, though, you have to imagine the Dolphins are not going to leave Allen alone on Evans.  Look for safety help over the top.  Advantage: Bills

MATCHUP 4: Bills SS Donte Whitner vs. Dolphins TEs Anthony Fasano/David Martin
Brian Galliford: The Bills generally struggle defending big targets.  They were able to contain Antonio Gates last week by lining up reserve safety Bryan Scott on him and throwing double teams at him; Gates still caught 4 passes for pretty sizeable chunks of yardage.  I doubt Whitner will see most, if any at all, of his time on these guys; CB Ashton Youboty is unlikely to play, so Whitner could be spending some time at corner.  Clearly, Fasano and Martin aren't Gates, but they're a formidable duo that have been performing fairly well, from what I can tell.  This is going to be a point of emphasis for the Bills, I believe - shut down the run and attempt to contain Fasano and Martin, who are very obviously two of Pennington's most cherished targets.  For now, though... Advantage: Dolphins

Matty I: Tight ends are a big part of a Dan Henning offense and we've seen that this season - with Anthony Fasano and David Martin combining for 33 catches, 467 yards, and 3 touchdowns.  More importantly, they seem to be the only players who can consistently get open - which is why they've combined to receive 25% of Chad Pennington's total targets.  This is important to note because, from all I've see and read, the Bills have a tendency to surrender yards to opposing tight ends.  For the Dolphins, it's important to get these 2 involved in the offense early.  Doing so could potentially open things up more for the receivers outside, as the Bills would have to make the necessary adjustments if Fasano and Martin are active in the passing attack right from the get go.  Advantage: Dolphins

I consider myself incredibly lucky to be a season ticket holder at Ralph Wilson Stadium.  I'm afforded the opportunity to see the Bills live at least seven times per season; I know that's an opportunity that many of you would just about die for.  I felt the pain many of you felt this Sunday, however, while trying to do my usual film breakdowns; there's only so much Cincinnati Bengals football I can handle.  Mercifully, we don't play that team this season.

So, with the power outage ultimately leading to a lot of useless time and data on my DVR, I'm shortening up the film sessions to some more general observations this week.  With any luck, we'll return to our regularly scheduled programming next week after the Bills face the Dolphins.

C Duke Preston vs C Melvin Fowler
I can appreciate what y'all are saying about the Duke Preston vs Melvin Fowler debate, but please understand that this is one of the weakest debates I've ever seen when it comes to Bills personnel.  Let me assure you that even though Preston was part of a line that performed admirably against San Diego (at least when it came to pass protection), the Bills hold Fowler in much higher regard.  I wasn't too impressed with Preston; I doubt Fowler would have played worse.  Fowler is the starter when he's healthy, and that could be as soon as this week.

Marshawn vs Fred
I saw some folks asking why it was Fred Jackson and not Marshawn Lynch in the game while the Bills were trying to kill clock against the Chargers.  First of all, I didn't see anything different in the way the two backs normally rotate; by the terms of that rotation, it was Jackson's turn to be on the field.  Clearly, Buffalo's coaching staff is every bit as comfortable with Jackson as they are with Lynch to depend on him in that situation.

To add to this, however, I think it's pretty clear that Jackson was giving the Chargers more problems.  Lynch has trouble getting going sometimes; Jackson's a one-cut guy that hits his top speed relatively quick.  Jackson's numbers weren't as gaudy, but he was consistently having much more success running the ball than was Lynch, including up the middle.  Lynch had some long runs to boost his average; Jackson was churning out yardage better.  That may have played into the decision as well.  Combined, these two guys present a ridiculously challenging matchup for our opponents.

DT Kyle Williams
I mentioned prior to the start of the season that I thought DT Kyle Williams was getting ready for a break-out season.  Some of you scoffed.  Williams has been nothing short of Buffalo's best defensive lineman this season; when he's not double teamed, he's exploding into opposing backfields.  Nobody has made more plays in opponent's backfields than Williams this season.  When he's on, he's an absolute monster.  Nothing changed against San Diego; it took two guys to block him most of the game, and when they singled him up, he was highly disruptive once again.

DT John McCargo
Let's give this kid some credit - coming off of his botched trade, McCargo played a surprising amount, and he played pretty well.  He won't pick up much in the way of stats in his current role, simply because he inexplicably demands double teams when he's on the field.  He looked good against San Diego; he drew a double team that helped Copeland Bryan apply serious pressure on Kawika Mitchell's interception.

DE Contain vs Misdirection
This is a recurring problem for the Bills, and if memory serves me correctly, Buffalo's opponents have exploited it at least once in each game this season.  Buffalo's defensive ends make one major mistake in contain per game, and the usual culprits are Chris Kelsay and Bryan.  This week, the mistake came on a 31-yard reverse run by Chargers WR Vincent Jackson.  Buffalo's ends, by and large, played pretty well against San Diego, but it'd be nice if they started playing a bit more disciplined on misdirection plays.

FB Corey McIntyre
I was impressed with Buffalo's new fullback.  He didn't look great as a lead blocker, but he hasn't been allowed to do much of it yet, either, so I won't pass judgment there yet.  Where he looked outstanding was as a wedge-buster on Buffalo's kick coverage units.  McIntyre is like a little bowling ball of pain out there (well, as "little" as a 258-pound man can be, I suppose), and routinely destroyed the Chargers' blocking schemes.  He looked very good in this role.  Another quality signing by Bobby April.  As a result, the Bills were able to quite easily contain one of the NFL's most explosive return men in Chargers RB Darren Sproles.

P Brian Moorman
Let's give our punter some love.  He had a punt nullified by a penalty in the fourth quarter, and during said punt, he developed a pretty serious cramp in his left (plant leg) calf.  While the refs were taking care of the penalty, George Wilson helped Moorman stretch out on the field - but he was clearly bothered.  Moorman stayed on the field, punted a rocket with his left leg in a knot, then hobbled off the field after some excellent punt coverage.  Who said 172-pound punters weren't tough?

     
Buffalo Bills (4-1) vs San Diego Chargers (3-3)
Sunday, October 19, 2008 - 1:00PM EDT
SB Nation's Chargers coverage: Bolts From The Blue

It's only been two weeks since the meltdown in Arizona, but it's felt like months.  Buffalo Bills football is finally back, following a long bye week, with the San Diego Chargers in town for a tough AFC matchup.  It'll be a struggle to beat the Chargers and get to 5-1, but below are my keys to a Bills victory Sunday afternoon:

Pray for Melvin Fowler: If anyone watched the Chargers/Patriots game on Sunday night, they saw NT Jamal Williams absolutely destroy Pats' Pro Bowl C Dan Koppen.  He treated him as if he were a freshman in high school. The Fowler (or Duke Preston, if Fowler can't go) vs Williams battle is going to be one where the Chargers have a significant advantage.  The Bills are going to have to give Fowler help or we're going to see pressure up the middle all afternoon.  If they can double Williams and neutralize him, the potential for run success and a pocket for Trent Edwards will be there.  That's a big if.

Keep Trent upright:  This is twofold.  On one hand, nobody wants to see him take another shot, as I'm sure we'll all be holding our breath every time he hits the turf.  We need him healthy and running the offense if we want to beat the Chargers.  On the other hand, we also need to keep him upright in order to keep the chains moving.  As Brian said, the potential to control the clock via the pass will be there, but that won't happen if Trent is getting hit early and often.  The Chargers have 17 sacks on the season, including 12 in their past 3 games, and our OL has given up 16.  It's time for Jason Peters and Langston Walker to finally come to play. 

Start fast: Other than the Jacksonville game, we haven't played very well in the first half of any game.  A strong start would go a long way towards a victory this week.  We also have to limit San Diego early on.  In their two best performances of the season, against the Jets and Pats, the Chargers have outscored the opponent 48-17 in the first half.  They proceeded to roll after that.  If the Chargers get up early, they are very tough to come back on.  This is definitely not a game we can start slowly in.  After two weeks to prepare, there's no reason the offense shouldn't come out strong, especially if Edwards isn't rusty.  San Diego will obviously be keying on a fast start themselves, so this will be one to watch.

Find a way, any way, to get after Rivers:  I've harped on it enough and we all know the pass rush has been stagnant at best.  With two weeks to prepare and work on some blitzes, Perry Fewell's defense has to come out and get after Philip Rivers.  With Aaron Schobel iffy with his foot injury and an ineffective rush around him, Buffalo's blitzers are going to have to come up huge this week.  We cannot let Rivers sit back there and pick apart our defense underneath like Kurt Warner was allowed to do two weeks ago.  Rivers likes to go deep to his big receivers; we have to disrupt his timing and force him to move around.  With that, Fewell has to let his corners play up on the line of scrimmage to take away the quick stuff that killed us against Arizona. With Terrence McGee out, we definitely need to force Rivers' hand.

Don't let Tomlinson find his footing: We've all heard about LT's struggles this year, but he's getting healthy and he's still as good a RB as there is in the NFL.  Personally, I don't want to see him return to prominence this week.  Our potentially mediocre run defense (currently 18th in the NFL) has started to regress as the season has progressed.  The Chargers haven't run it all that well yet this year, but have the potential to do so.  Our run D has been mostly stout, but water has started leaking in as we've allowed 145 rushing yards per game the last two after a great start.  Which run D will show up this week?  Hopefully the one we saw in our first three games (94 ypg), not the past two.

More Marshawn: With the Bills continuous struggle to run the ball, Turk Schonert needs to continue finding other ways to get him the ball in space.  It'd be nice to incorporate the screen pass back into the offense this week.  Lynch and Fred Jackson should receive heavy workloads this week.

Win the turnover battle: This has been a sore spot for the Bills thus far this season.  We're near the bottom of the league at a -3, having only forced 6 turnovers in our five games.  The Chargers on the other hand are sitting at +4, which is third in the NFL.  I'm guessing if these trends continue, we're not going to have a happy Sunday.  The Bills D needs to find some ways to get the ball for the offense, while the offense has to take good care of the rock this weekend.  The Chargers and their high-powered offense are not a team you want to turn it over against.

Get Lee Evans the ball:  I say this every week, and I'll probably say it every week going forward.  We need to get Lee Evans the ball more than 3-4 times a game as we have.  The third highest paid WR in the game needs many more touches than that.  I expect Evans to see some of Antonio Cromartie this weekend, which will be an extremely tough matchup for him.  Cromartie is big, physical and fast, not the type of CB Evans is built to beat. Schonert is really going to have to move him around this weekend, including putting him in motion, to prevent jams.  Some quick passes to Lee will be essential to open it up deep for him.  DaBolts believes Quentin Jammer will be matched up with Evans often to take away the deep ball.  If that happens, I like Evans to have deep ball success.  He can beat any CB in the league deep.  Jammer would be no exception.  I think it would be much tougher on him to be matched up exclusively with Cromartie and his physical play.

Win Special Teams:  The Chargers have a dynamic return man in Darren Sproles, assuming he's healthy, so it'll be a challenge for our coverage units this week.  It'd also be a great game for Leodis McKelvin to finally break a big kick return.  He's been solid, but has yet to really showcase the big play we saw in the preseason.  And with Roscoe Parrish back in the mix, our punt return unit should again have that big play element back in it's repertoire.  I just hope the thumb injury and wrap doesn't hinder his ability to hold onto the ball.

Simply put, WIN:  To me, this game is a season definer.  With a tough schedule coming up with 3 straight division games, including a tougher-than-anyone-could-have-expected-in-a-million-years road game in Miami next week, we really could use a victory this week.  With another playoff contender coming into our stadium, the Bills need to prove themselves capable of beating the better teams in the league.  It's been a struggle to do that for as long as we can all remember.  This week is a good time to help change that attitude and prove to the league that the Bills will be there all year.  If we can come out with a big W over the Chargers, we will be in GREAT shape going forward.  A loss and we're close to teetering the wrong way with road games 2 of the next 3 weeks.  A win really sets the stage for a great rest of the season.  A loss and we're really headed in the wrong direction.  This game could really define the rest of the season and how it plays out.

***

There you have it, keys to a big Bills win.  It's going to be a very, very difficult challenge for the team.  Let's hope they are up to it.  The Ralph hasn't rocked in almost a month, let's hope it is this Sunday.  Go Bills!

The Cardinals game was certainly a disappointing showing by the Bills. Any time you give up 5 sacks you’re going to have a hard time winning. The line certainly didn’t cover itself with glory on run plays. They didn’t get much help from the coaching staff. With all that being said, I think it’s pretty clear that the defense lost this game for the Bills. The offense--despite giving up sacks, committing penalties, overthrown receivers and dropped balls--averaged 28 yards per drive. That’s enough time for the defense to have a chance to catch their collective breath and to, at the least, flip field position. The defense allowed an abysmal 60% conversion rate on 3^rd down and 50% on 4^th down. Unlike games in previous years, the offense didn’t leave the defense hanging: the defense did that almost all by itself. (As an aside, George Wilson gets my game ball for biggest idiot. I thought it was beyond stupid for him to hold up his fist on 4^th down when his team was getting clobbered and the Cardinals were moving essentially at will. Help out the refs when you’re winning or, at the very least, still in the game, goober.) Moving on…

Watching the game I thought the Cardinals blitzed far more often than they did. Would you believe they only blitzed on 7 of 31 (19.4%) of pass plays? It certainly seemed like they sent a lot more guys when I watched the game on Sunday afternoon. They generated pressure with 4 guys and did it largely by stunting. I think we can count on seeing the Chargers engage in the same sort of tactics next Sunday. Given that the Cardinals had as much, if not more, success stunting towards the right side of the offensive line as they did the left I don’t think we can hang this on Peters’ selfish actions this summer. It’s a problem that extends beyond any individual lineman.

As I suspected they would, the Cardinals stacked the box often. On 9 of 17 (52.9%) of run plays the Cardinals had at least 8 guys in the box. The Bills ran for 6 (!) yards on those 9 plays, or 0.7 yards per attempt. That’s beyond terrible. On the other 8 plays? 67 yards or 8.4 yards per attempt. Maybe it’s just wishful thinking, but I am expecting the Bills QB to check out of runs where San Diego has 8 in the box. Even with a FB/HB in the backfield and a TE on the line that leaves the Bills 1 blocker short. Turk needs to come up with some creative passes out of that formation when the box is stacked. We saw one against the Rams and Schouman picked up an important first down. Let’s hope Turk has more of those up his sleeves.

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I know you don't want to re-live it; I didn't much enjoy it myself.  But in my desperate search to find someone to blame, and thus loathe, in regards to Trent Edwards' concussion suffered in Sunday's loss, the following analysis proves that the blame may lie on the shoulders of an unsatisfactory player.  Rumblers, it's our first ever Paint Analysis - and if you like the glorious crappiness of this exercise, perhaps it could become a more regular feature...

The Situation
Buffalo ball, 3rd and 6, BUF 30, early first quarter

* Buffalo comes out in a three-wide set.  Edwards (5) is in the shotgun with Marshawn Lynch (23) to his left.
* Arizona counters with a dime look - three corners, three safeties.  Adrian Wilson (24) is lined up essentially in no-man's land; it's apparent that he's going to do as he pleases on this play.
* Hardy comes in motion, eventually settling to the right and slightly behind Robert Royal (84).  Simultaneously, Chike Okeafor (56) and Karlos Dansby (58) cheat up to the line of scrimmage, and Wilson comes up to, apparently, take Hardy in the slot.  Everything the Cardinals are doing to this point screams "blitz up the gut", including Wilson's actions.  The Cards appear to be playing man in the slots behind this blitz.  Appearances, as it turns out, can be deceiving.
* Other relevant notes: Eric Green (25) is lined up across Josh Reed (82) in the slot; Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie (29) and Antrel Rolle (21) have Lee Evans (83) bracketed on the left side of the formation; Aaron Francisco (47) and Roderick Hood (26) are clearly in a zone shell behind Wilson.

The Snap

* Surprise!  Arizona's blitzing, but it's from the edges.  Dansby (58) and Okeafor (56) drop off into zone coverage, and Green (25) and Wilson (24) blitz off the edges.
* The actions of Arizona's defensive linemen make this play.  LaBoy (55) and Antonio Smith (94) rush on the interior, pinching the Bills' line into an even more tight-knit group.  It's compounded by the disguised interior blitz.  As a result, there's a pileup, and Langston Walker ends up assisting on Smith when he really didn't need to.  Wilson runs by unscathed.
* Marshawn (23) easily picks up Green, the other edge rusher.
* Reed (82) and Royal (84) are essentially decoys for the guy running the hot route, Hardy (81).  Reed draws coverage from the dropping Dansby.  Okeafor, meanwhile, is stuck in no-man's land between Hardy and Royal, who run an excellent route combination on the converted defensive end.  The problem, however, is two-fold: Hardy doesn't run it quick enough, and Wilson's untouched.
* Edwards reads the blitz and immediately knows Hardy is his guy.  Kid's sharp as a tack.  Here comes Wilson, however...

The Hit

* Trent starts drifting backwards, waiting for the Hardy/Royal route combination to develop.  He makes the throw quickly; the ball is out a split second before Hardy turns his head.  The problem is, Edwards has to hold the ball a touch longer than he'd like, and he ends up throwing the ball off his back foot.  He's essentially ripe for Wilson's picking.
* Edwards delivers the first down throw, but at an awful expense.  Wilson hits high to try to knock the ball out; Edwards is too quick on the draw, but Wilson hits under Trent's shoulder and drives his helmet - in a non-dirty fashion; it has more to do with momentum than anything - up into Edwards' chin.
* As the pair go down, the back of Edwards' helmet hits the turf first.  He's very clearly going to have a sore neck and a rung bell.  Wilson - mostly because of Edwards' drifting and his own explosiveness - drives through Edwards and lands on the quarterback with his full body weight.  If Wilson gets fined, it'll be because of this last detail - he wasn't playing dirty, as many Bills fans have unfairly claimed.

The Aftermath

Where should the blame lie?  It's spread out a bit; part of it is on a great blitz scheme by Clancy Pendergast, part of it is on Langston Walker for pinching in when he should have fanned out and tried to knock Wilson off course (though, admittedly, he wouldn't have had much time to do this), and part of it on Edwards for being a smart, gritty, loveable guy.

Will Wilson get suspended?  Almost certainly not.  Will he get fined?  If he does, it won't be for a large amount, and it shouldn't be; it won't be for a dirty hit, either.  If Wilson has to pay up, it'll be because he landed on Edwards with all of his weight.  My guess?  Wilson won't get fined, either, and he probably shouldn't.  He was just playing football.

The good news: Edwards is reportedly doing well - or, rather, about as well as can be expected at this point.  With the bye week upon us, Edwards has plenty of time to shake off the cobwebs, get plenty of sleep, take a little vacation and get ready for San Diego.  It's far too early to speculate on his availability for that game, but to this point, signs are far more encouraging than they are discouraging.  Get well soon, Trent.

Here are my offensive line notes from the Bills' win over the Rams.  It may be hard to believe but this is even longer than the post I did for the Raiders game...

Drive 1

Pass 1: 49 yards to Evans
Run 1: 20 yards by Lynch (negated by holding call) left B gap
- Peters was flagged for holding. While Brian thought it was a crappy call, Peters was, in fact, holding.  He had his right hand in the DE’s jersey arm hole.  He used his hold to keep the DE from turning and chasing down Lynch. While it didn’t appear that the DE was going to be able to catch Lynch without the hold, a hold it was and it killed the play.
- Dock put 95 down.
- Fowler pulled and stuffed/locked up 1 filling LB (Schouman took out the other) which helped spring Lynch for the run.
- Butler kept the DT turned away from the play.
- Walker pulled and did no particular good.
Pass 2: 6 yards to Lynch
Pass 3: Overthrow to Hardy (Edwards had him for a first down but simply missed)
- Lynch gave a pretty weak effort at chipping Peters’ guy.
Pass 4: 9 yards to Lynch
- At first blush I thought that Peters had killed the drive based on his holding penalty.  However, on closer review Edwards gets the blame as he could have had the first down with an accurate pass to Hardy.  The drive ended in a field goal.

Drive 1: 0 blitzes, 0 stacks

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There's plenty to be excited about in Buffalo with the Buffalo Bills off to a 4-0 start for the first time since 1992.  Yet despite four straight wins to open the 2008 regular season, Bills fans seem increasingly negative about the team's play, specifically in the last two weeks.  I'm here to quell some of that pessimism - because what I saw in tape in reviewing the Bills' 31-14 victory over the Rams was quite encouraging.  The tape never lies.

For the third time in four games, the Bills started off slowly offensively.  The penalties, missed assignments and general first-half woes that our (still very young) offense has displayed are the most-referenced low points when Bills fans are staying cautious about the team's prospects.  Caution is a great thing to have - in fact, caution is the preferable route at this point when laying out expectations for this team - but we're a lot closer to having a great game offensively than many realize.

Miscues and brand new schemes
Much of the early-game lack of success that the Bills have displayed stems from what defenses are doing.  The Rams - who got absolutely blitzed by the Eagles, Giants and Seahawks in their first three games - came out and did a lot of overloading and stunting in their blitz packages defensively, something they hadn't done in their first three losses.  The result was some blown assignments in pass protection, which was largely responsible for the Bills' offensive woes early in this particular game.

The other culprit?  Mistakes - and those likely stemmed from a couple of factors.  First, I thought that offensive coordinator Turk Schonert was a bit too urgent in this game.  The Bills didn't really try to establish their rushing game - not until the third quarter, at least - and most of the passes they threw were throws down the field.  That's uncharacteristic of a Schonert offense (at least the one we've seen to date), and it kept the Bills in several third-and-unmanageable situations.  Stemming from that sense of urgency on Schonert's part was offensive personnel that seemed to be pushing - in fact, borderline desperate - as well.  That led to some of the penalties (though the early holding call on Jason Peters, which negated a long Marshawn Lynch run, was, in fact, garbage).

Buffalo needs to tighten up the screws early in the game, there's no doubt about it.  They're seeing exotic looks and they're shooting themselves in the foot.  They're going to have to deal with the looks, because those will keep coming.  If they eliminate the mistakes, however, and remain true to their offensive identity, they can be much more effective in the first half.  In particular, they need to deal with the early blitz better, because Trent Edwards took too many big hits in this one.  Better play-calling will take care of it.

Blocking scheme changes
While the Bills were struggling to run the ball in the first half, the team spent a lot of time running in-tackle, and Peters pulled to the right on a lot of those plays.  The results, as you all are aware, were less than impressive - though if there aren't two penalties negating long runs (I said the Peters hold was garbage, which it was, but the trip on Melvin Fowler was a good call), we're not complaining about Buffalo's rushing effort in this game.

Buffalo clearly made a concerted effort to re-establish their running game in the third quarter, and they did it with a slightly adjusted blocking scheme.  They mixed in plenty of off-tackle runs, which led to some of Marshawn Lynch's longer runs of the game.  Fred Jackson had success off the edge as well.  Rather than pulling Peters in the second half, it was Langston Walker doing most of the pulling.  Man, is it fun to watch that guy sprint full-out.  Walker wasn't laying a lot of lumber on these plays, but a man that size doesn't have to - he creates space because he's so big.  The Bills' diversity in their run game play-calling, with a dash of determination, was what led to success - and it's what created a hole straight up the middle for Jackson on his first career touchdown rush.

Lee Evans: key to Buffalo's offense
The Bills did a smart thing getting Lee Evans involved early - his 49-yard reception on the first play of the game was a thing of beauty - but they need to find ways to spread his production out through an entire game.  Evans' second and final reception came in the fourth quarter, the 39-yard touchdown grab that put the game on ice.  He needs to be more of a factor in the middle quarters; I'm confident he would have been had Edwards had more time to throw.

Some fun stats for any stragglers out there who think Evans doesn't deserve a lucrative contract extension from the Bills: over two seasons, Trent Edwards is 9-4 as an NFL starting quarterback.  In those thirteen games, Evans has had at least 50 receiving yards nine times - all wins.  He's had less than 50 receiving yards four times - all losses.  Take that further - in the 20 games the Bills have played since the start of the 2007 season, Evans has notched at least 50 receiving yards in 11 of those games.  That's right, folks - over the past two years, the Bills are 11-0 in games where Evans nabs 50 receiving yards, and 0-9 when he doesn't.  Getting him involved is quite obviously the key to success for Buffalo's offense, and it's a pretty inarguable point.

Reviews of the defense and special teams are coming your way later today.  Stay tuned...

Lynch getting very little room to run (buffalobills.com)

Yesterday, the Buffalo Bills extended their winning streak to four games by taking care of business in St. Louis in a 31-14 win over the Rams.  It wasn't pretty, but it was effective, and the Bills are 4-0 for the first time since 1992.  Here are some more observations on the game that I didn't post in yesterday's recap.

Offensive Line
I'm sure that Ron will have more to say about this later in the week, but I was impressed with the run blocking... in the second half.  Buffalo made a tweak to their blocking schemes at the half yesterday, and the result was a solid half of rushing as the Bills put the Rams away.  This is still easily the biggest area of concern for the Bills, however - the unit has been the model of inconsistency to date, looking awful at times and brilliant at others.  Consider this: in nine starts last season, Trent Edwards was sacked 12 times.  He's been sacked 11 times through this season's first four games.  I still think our run blocking will be improve; for now, I'm much more concerned about the Bills' ability to keep that #5 Bills jersey clean, and the guy who wears it healthy.

Oh, and I'm not placing all of the blame at the feet of Jason Peters, either - Melvin Fowler and Langston Walker weren't particularly wonderful yesterday, either.

Lynch and Reed
People already know how awesome Marshawn Lynch is.  He's only averaging 3.5 yards per carry on the season, but nobody outside of Buffalo realizes that he's literally doing it all by himself.  I can't recall a Bills running back - or a Bills player, for that matter - that was tougher to bring down or more adept at picking up yards after contact.  The guy's a stud.  People only half realize it right now; when Lynch gets some blocking, he's going to have some monster games.

Not as many people are as appreciative of what Josh Reed does for the offense, however.  Currently the team leader with 17 receptions, Reed is, quite simply, a first down machine.  He had a few more key conversions yesterday, and is obviously Edwards' go-to-guy in clutch situations.  We have ourselves a heck of a slot receiver.  He's in for a career year if he keeps this up.

McGee loss could be critical
I'll probably expand on this more in the week - once things are more "official" - but the loss of Terrence McGee to a sprained left knee could end up being a critical loss to the defense.  I'm hearing that McGee's injury could require 3-4 weeks of rest, and the Bills will probably give it to him - just as they encouraged Roscoe Parrish to have thumb surgery.  McGee has been Buffalo's best defensive back, and the Bills are about to enter a two-game stretch in which they'll take on a powerful Cardinals aerial attack and a ridiculously effective Chargers offense.  There's going to be a lot of pressure on Ashton Youboty and Leodis McKelvin to play well in McGee's absence if it turns out that his knee will keep him out for multiple games.

Defense close to exploding
There's no doubt that Buffalo's defense has been the one constant in their four victories.  They struggled in the first half yesterday, but dominated in the second half as the Bills finally got over the hump and coasted to a win.

Where they've been (slightly) lacking, however, is playmaking.  They finally got a big one when Jabari Greer won the game with his 33-yard pick-six.  Donte Whitner also had a nice sack, and the defense in general was in St. Louis' face for the entirety of the second half.  Through four games, the Bills have registered 10 sacks and forced 5 turnovers.  That's not bad production at all, but does anyone else feel like they're thisclose to much more?  The unit seems to be on the verge of having a game where they force a bunch of turnovers and make a lot of big hits.  Think they won't relish the chance to face the suddenly turnover-happy Kurt Warner?  Think again.

The AFC East
You have to love the position the Bills are in within their division.  We're 4-0, and we have a game and a half on the Pats, two games on the Jets and two and a half on the Dolphins.  To say that the Bills are in the driver's seat is an understatement.  Each of our three foes has played at least one divisional game, and the best part of it is that all three of them have at least one division loss already (the Jets lost to the Pats; the Pats lost to the Dolphins; the Dolphins lost to the Jets).  Good stuff - but that three-week stretch of divisional games loom as the largest yet for these Bills.

Film Review
I'll be doing my usual film review as always this week; however, I'll be detained at work a little longer than usual on Monday, so please don't be surprised/upset if you have to wait a little longer than usual for analysis on one of the units.  I'll try my best to get through it all tonight, however (at least, I will right up until 9PM - any more 'Heroes' fans out there?).