Edwards' decline highlights Bills' slide (Associated Press)

Losers of four straight, there are a lot of documented issues with the 2008 Buffalo Bills. Line issues; poor play-calling; coaching concerns; these are all discussed ad nauseum amongst a rather distraught Bills fan base, most of them with good reason.

Chief amongst the concerns, however, is one question: Where on earth has the Trent Edwards we know and love disappeared to?

Statistically, Edwards' drop-off over the past four games - again, all Bills losses - is borderline mind-boggling. It's difficult to fathom how a QB can drop from this stat line through six games...

Weeks 1-7: 106/152 (69.7% completions), 1209 yards (7.95 yards per attempt), 5 TD, 2 INT, 98.82 rating

... to this stat line over the past four.

Weeks 8-11: 74/119 (62.2% completions), 784 yards (6.59 yards per attempt), 3 TD, 8 INT, 61.75 rating

When the team started 5-1, Edwards was sacked 11 times in what really amounts to five games and one drive (he missed all but three plays in the loss to Arizona). He lost 2 fumbles in those games. Over the four-game losing streak, he's lost 2 more fumbles on 9 more sacks. To put it lightly, Trent Edwards has sucked.

What's Gone Wrong
There are a lot of theories as to why Edwards is struggling; I'd like to put one of them to rest right away. Edwards isn't struggling due to post-concussion symptoms. Nothing about the way Edwards has played has changed aside from confidence; it's what the Bills are doing, coupled with some unorthodox approaches by our opponents, that are doing Edwards in.

First and foremost, Buffalo became too dependent too quickly on Edwards. He got off to a blazing start this year, and with the offense struggling to run the ball, the fate of the entire team was placed on Edwards' shoulders. Naturally - and not unsurprisingly - those shoulders gave way. Buffalo re-discovered its rushing game against Cleveland. That's going to help Edwards work through his mega-slump.

The lack of a run game can be directly attributed to that predictable play-calling we've discussed thoroughly here; it also has a lot to do with poor line play. Buffalo's offensive line has regressed mightily from 2007 to 2008, most prominently in the interior. As a result, Edwards is getting hit, though that has changed of late with teams blitzing less. Ron from NM accurately pointed out that early in the season, Edwards was burning opposing defenses that blitzed him. Our opponents paid attention; they rarely blitz these days. Cleveland spent most of Monday Night rushing three linemen. (Blame Ron!)

All of these factors - lack of a run game, poor line play, poor play-calling, unreasonable expectations - have snowballed into four catastrophic games for our young quarterback. That's not figuring in the injury to Edwards' favorite target, WR Josh Reed, and the subsequent lack of production from the folks trying to replace Reed in the lineup.  (Reed is likely to return to the lineup this weekend in Kansas City.)  His confidence is clearly shot. Feel free to blame Edwards for the team's four-game losing streak; he can take it. Just don't put all of the blame on him.

How to Fix It
In my estimation, there's only one way to right the sinking ship that is Trent Edwards.  I like to call it the "Joe Flacco offense".  Baltimore has cruised to a 6-4 record behind their rookie quarterback because they're doing offensively what the Bills should have been doing all along - protecting their young signal-caller.

I don't blame Buffalo's coaching staff for putting more on Edwards' shoulders after the way he started the season.  We were all excited; Edwards wasn't putting up Peyton Manning numbers, clearly, but his efficiency was remarkable for such a young player.  It's natural to put more on his plate when he's amongst the five highest-rated passers in the league.  He's not there anymore, and it's time Buffalo recognized it.

Edwards is the future of the franchise, whether you like it or not.  I love it.  Kid's a leader, and he works his tail off.  But that future is in serious doubt if the Bills don't find a way to boost this kid's confidence before the '08 season ends.  He's done everything by the book.  Now Buffalo needs to go by the book, too - run the ball, get Edwards moving, get creative with the play-calling.  Make it easier for Edwards to get the ball to his playmakers.  Doing that will bring back Efficient Trent.  Efficient Trent is confident, and leads the Bills to wins.  That's really the long and short of it.  Keep it simple, and we'll see the "Trent of old" come roaring back into the picture.

  
Buffalo Bills (5-4) vs Cleveland Browns (3-6)
Monday, November 17, 8:30PM EST

Listen - I know the Bills have lost four of five.  I know that everyone's concerned about the direction of the team again.  I get that there are folks out there who will feel the need to continue to vent their frustrations until something changes with the Bills.  I just think that if you're not jacked up for Monday Night Football, you're crazy.  If you got pumped for last year's MNF game, in which we snatched defeat from the jaws of victory against the unbeaten Dallas Cowboys, then you should be borderline crazy for this one.

The news isn't all bad.  The Bills, believe it or not, are getting healthier...

Injury Updates - Bills getting healthier; Cleveland's not
Buffalo has struggled without several starters over the past few weeks.  Only two of them - DE Aaron Schobel and WR Josh Reed - have yet to return to the practice field, though Reed did some sideline running at Wednesday's practice.

SS Donte Whitner practiced on a limited basis Wednesday and took all of his reps with the first team defense.  It's still not certain whether or not Whitner will be ready to return after just a week off with his separated shoulder, but the fact that he's even on the field is promising.  Don't expect him to practice much Thursday, however, as the Bills strap on the pads for today's workout.

OG Brad Butler participated fully and is set to return to the lineup - though again, that's not a certainty.  He's missed three consecutive games now, and let's face it - he may not be a world-beater, but he's a right sight better than Kirk Chambers, Duke Preston or Jason Whittle inside.

Cleveland, meanwhile, is likely to be without their best offensive lineman, OG Eric Steinbach.  He missed last week's game as well.  NT Shaun Rogers and DE Corey Williams, two key anchors of Cleveland's defense, also missed practice Wednesday, though they are still expected to play.

Edwards putting in extra time
QB Trent Edwards, proprietor of suck the past few weeks, is putting in extra time to tighten up the loose screws in his game...

“I was out there working on my footwork after practice, throwing some extra routes just to get back to what I need to get back to,” Edwards said. “That’s part of the position. It’s my job to perform at a high level at the quarterback [position]. The mechanics are a big reason why you can or can’t perform at a high level.”

No lie, Trent.  Whatever's wrong, fix it fast, sir.

Langston Walker lays it on the line
Bills RT Langston Walker bristled at a reporter who implied that Bills players weren't motivated to turn this ship around...

“Man, I just want to rip into that [question], but I’m not [going to],” Walker said. “We haven’t given up hope. True Buffalo fans haven’t given up hope. True football fanatics haven’t given up hope. People who really know the game, know that we’re not out of the hunt.”

Ten-four, good buddy.  Ten-four.

Uh oh, Bickering Brownies
Cleveland head coach Romeo Crennel and two of his players, Josh Cribbs and Jamal Lewis, have different definitions of the word "quit".  No word on what their stance on "is"... is.

MNF coming at the right time?
One benefit to playing on Monday Night this week hasn't really been discussed in these parts - the benefit of an extra day of preparation.  Yes, I know that the Browns have another day or two tacked onto that, considering they played (and lost) a week ago today, but still - an extra day of prep work isn't going to hurt Buffalo.

It may come at the right time, too.  Clearly, the Bills are on a skid, but a win in Cleveland gives them a little momentum heading into a road trip with Kansas City and a home date with San Francisco - two teams with a combined record of 3-15.  Momentum is everything in this league, and MNF could help the Bills grab some heading into the ultra-important second half of the divisional schedule.  I'm not trying to get ahead of myself, clearly - the win has to come first - but the opportunity is there.  Just some food for thought.

"And now for something completely different!"  Yes, I'm a Monty Python fan but the reference is more to the nature of this posting. I generally prattle on endlessly about what this lineman did or didn't do on that play. I've had something of a busy week so I'm more than a little pressed for time - hence a completely different sort of posting for me.

I've been one of those guys sitting on the fence regarding Buffalo's QB situation. Basically, I root for whomever is playing at the moment whether it be Trent Edwards or J.P. Losman. They each have their positives (cannon arm vs unperturbed nature) and negatives (highly excitable in a bad way vs something less than a cannon arm). Well, I'm a fence sitter no more.

I didn't expect to see a lot of positives come out of the Miami game but I did. As I was watching the game and breaking down how each lineman did on every play (yes, I still did it. I just don't have time to write about it), I began to notice something about Edwards when it came to how he dealt with blitzes. The Dolphins blitzed on 13 of 42 pass attempts (31%). Edwards responded with 1 incompletion (pass 6 to Josh Reed which was almost intercepted), 1 scramble for 9 yards and 11 completions. The grand total - including the scramble and pass 42 which Royal caught and promptly fumbled - was 150 yards (11.5 yards per play) and 7 first downs. Now that is production. And it was consistent production in the face of pressure.

That made me curious so I went back and looked over my notes of the San Diego game. Only 10 pass plays were broadcast and the Chargers blitzed on 7 of them. Edwards had 1 incompletion, 1 scramble for 12 yards, and 5 completions. The total haul for that game under pressure was 77 yards (11.0 yards per play), 5 first downs and 1 TD. Edwards was only in for one blitz of the Cardinals game but that went for a first down and 13 yards.

The past couple of games represent real progress for Edwards when it comes to dealing with the blitz. In the Rams game Edwards had 3 sacks, 4 incompletions (1 drop), 1 scramble, 4 completions, 3 first downs and 1 TD. That was 70 net yards (5.4 per play). In the Raiders game Edwards had 1 sack, 4 incompletions (2 drops), 1 INT, 4 completions, and 1 scramble. That netted 48 yards (4.4 yards per play), 2 first downs and 1 TD. The Jags blitzed only 4 times and Edwards had 3 completions, 3 first downs and 1 sack. That netted 50 yards (12.5 yards per play), thanks largely to Barnes' improbable 33 yard gallop. Against Seattle's 4 blitzes Edwards had 3 completions, 2 first downs, and 1 defensive holding penalty that resulted in another first down. Blitzes in that game netted 22 yards, or 5.5 yards per play.

Overall, Edwards has been blitzed on 53 of 214 (24.8%) pass plays. He has thrown for first downs on 24 of those 53 (45.3%) blitzes. Setting aside the 5 sacks and 4 scrambles brings his actual passing stat line against the blitz to 32 of 44 (72.7%) for 421 yards (13.2 yards per completion, 9.6 yards per attempt), 3 TDs and 1 INT. Think about that for a second.  He's getting a first down almost half the time against blitzes and 75% of the time when he completes the pass. The bottom line is that Edwards is very good against the blitz. Teams have to pick their poison: go after him and get burned or sit back and let him dink and dunk his way down the field. Oh, and 3 of Edwards' 12 (25%) incompletions against the blitz were dropped so his numbers would be even better if the receivers had done their part.

Look for the Jets to respect his ability to function in the face of pressure and blitz something less than 35% of the time. They like to dink and dunk anyway.

***

I thought I'd read somewhere on Rumblings that some people were thinking that Duke Preston should start instead of Melvin Fowler. Silly people. Preston had a total of 7 bad run plays (all but 1 at center) and killed 4. He added 2 bad pass plays and 1 killed pass play for good measure. He personally killed 3 of the 11 (27.3%) of the Bills' drives in Miami. He's so bad that I'm placed in the awkward position of defending Fowler's hold on the starting gig - and most of you know how much I loathe Fowler. Of course, I should note that Fowler's lone run play of the game was bad and he had a bad pass play as well. He can trot out the gimpiness excuse but, frankly, he's not any good when he's healthy.

Whittle was just kind of there, which is pretty much what we expect from him. He did have one really notable play; Edwards' lame duck INT was due to Whittle being beaten by a swim move. His guy crashed into Edwards as he released the ball sending it fluttering lazily towards a waiting DB.

   
Buffalo Bills (5-2) vs New York Jets (4-3)
Sunday, November 2 - 1:00 PM EST

Another week, another tough division battle.  After blowing a golden opportunity to really control the division last week in Miami, our Bills get a chance to get in the divisional win column against the Jets inside the raucous Ralph.  This is a crucial game in the context of the rest of the season; here are the keys to a big Bills win:

Get it going early: A fast start is something we're all hoping for, and Turk Schonert is striving for.  The play calling needs to be a tad bit more unpredictable.  The Jets are tough to run on (only 82.6 ypg), so being able to throw early will really give us a good chance to put some points on the board in the first half.  However, we can't simply abandon the run, as the Miami game may suggest, but instead vary up the run calls.  Enough with the numerous dives up the middle Turk, especially this week with big, fat Kris Jenkins and the force field that surrounds him taking on Duke Preston.  We had success against Miami off tackle and outside, two places we've been asking for more runs all season.  The Jets run the 3-4 just like Miami, so running outside away from Jenkins will be the way to get it done on the ground.  Marshawn Lynch has had very few opportunities to run to the outside this year, but every time he does, he makes something happen.  Why is this not a staple in the Offense?  Also, don't be surprised to see some more no-huddle.

Force the action defensively: Going up against Brett Favre and the gunslinger mentality, this is the perfect week to implement a ton of press coverage on the Jets' wideouts.  Favre absolutely LOVES throwing misguided passes into tight double coverage, so getting up on Laveranues Coles, Jerricho Cotchery and Chansi Stuckey will really increase the chances of getting some turnovers.  If Fewell plays Jabari Greer, Terrence McGee and Ashton Youboty 10 yards off the ball again, Favre will feast on the quick slant this week.  If teams like the Chiefs, Raiders and Bengals can play Favre tough, there's absolutely no reason we shouldn't be able to shut the Jets passing game down.  But if we sit back and wait for him to make the mistakes, we will be in for a long afternoon.  By the way, is there a better WR first name trio than Laveranues, Jerricho and Chansi in the NFL? I think not.

Win the turnover battle: Currently, the Bills turnover margin is sitting at -3, which is #23 in the NFL.  Our 2 losses have produced a whopping -7 margin (8 giveaways, just 1 takeaway), though it is debatable whether those turnovers cost us those games as 7 of them came when we were already losing.  They have obviously cost us chances to mount comebacks, but it's tough to say whether they are reasons we lost against Arizona and Miami.  Either way, the offense has to take better control of the ball, while our defense needs to step up and start forcing some turnovers.  We've only accumulated 4 ineterceptions on the season, with one coming in the last minute against Seattle.  That just isn't good, and there's no better time to pick off a few passes than when Brett Favre rolls into town.  This is one area that should really decide Sunday's winner.

Pressure Fav-ruh: Piggybacking the turnover idea, it's important to get into Favre's face and force him to throw when he's not ready.  Again, if he has time to throw and space to put it, he'll hurt us.  Getting after him with some blitzes will lead to his patented crazy throws, which should again increase the chance for turnovers.  I'm not afraid of Coles and Cotchery beating us deep, so we've got to get up on them and make Favre squeeze the passes in there quickly.  I'm not confident that this will be part of the game plan though.

Make Special Teams special again:  This has been an overlooked area of the team this year.  Quite frankly, the ST units have not lived up to their lofty expectations this year.  They have been solid, but other than the Seattle game, have been very unspectacular.  Kick coverage has been up and down, the punting unit has been mostly good but there have been mistakes (see snap last week) and the kick return team has been borderline bad.  Leodis McKelvin just doesn't look like a good kick returner out there.  He heads directly to the sideline EVERY time and rarely shows the propensity to cut back.  Maybe Bobby April is instructing him to take what he can for now, until he gets more comfortable, but this unit has been far from explosive this year.  McKelvin's instincts just haven't seemed to be there, we shall see what he develops into in the return game.  This week would be a great time for a big play.  Controlling Leon Washington in the return game is going to be another tough job for the Bills ST's this week.

Involve Evans early and often: Here's your weekly "get the ball to Lee Evans early in the game" key.  With Josh Reed out, it's going to be as important as ever to get Evans involved early.  Look for the Jets to really roll coverage to him this week, so Roscoe Parrish and James Hardy will need to step up. Roscoe wants the ball more, now is the time for him to take advantage of the opportunity.

Protect the home turf:  To be honest, this is a game the Bills shouldn't lose, and probably can't afford to lose.  Starting 0-2 in the division and heading to New England is NOT what the team needs come Monday morning.  Like I thought the Chargers game might be, this game is a season definer, one that sets the stage for the rest of the year.  A loss here with a tough game at New England next week is really not the downward spiral I want to see occur.  If we win this week, to finish the first half 6-2, we will be in great shape going forward, but another divisional loss, at home no less, would really put a damper on where this team might be headed.  Luckily, the rest of the AFC is a jumbled mess, but it'd be nice to rise above that quagmire.  I'd much rather head to New England next week with 6 wins and at worse, a share of the divisional lead with them.  I don't want to be a game back or in a 3 way tie including the Jets at 5-3.  Rise up Buffalo, it's time you win a big game against a team with a winning record for once!

***

Let's go Bills, dispose of the New York Bretts!  Make my daily life in NYC merrier!

Originally, I had planned our usual "interview the enemy" segment this morning, in which we talk Bills/Jets with bloggers of that hated green team.  I'm delaying it for now because there is a ton of great reading material out there this morning in regards to the Buffalo Bills, their players and the upcoming game.  That doesn't happen often.  Let's get to it.

   Mark Gaughan of The Buffalo News talks injuries.  Specifically, he talks Josh Reed's injury.  It's a good read, but I'm more intrigued about two things in the article: the comments of Roscoe Parrish, and the fact that nothing was mentioned about banged up CB Ashton Youboty.

   We revisit Gaughan to discuss the fact that Duke Preston may now be the team's permanent starter at center.  I'm sure many of you are intrigued by this.  I'll wait to hear what Ron from NM thinks this weekend before I pass judgment.

   Jerry Sullivan does Kurupt a favor by taking public the Bills' need for a pass rush.  This is pretty much the position of the bandwagon that K has been leading for two years.  Sully doesn't say anything too profound here, but I'm sure many of you will use this as a launching point for your own thoughts.

   Is Jason Peters slipping?  That's a question that John Wawrow answers with everything short of a resounding "yes".  Anyone out there still irritated by Peters' comments, even if they're mostly true?

   This is a nice read on Keith Ellison, Buffalo's most underappreciated defender.  There's some erroneous reporting here (Kawika Mitchell hasn't played a snap at strong side linebacker since he was here, folks), but it's a good article nonetheless.

   Scouts, Inc. has its scouting report for the upcoming Bills/Jets game up.  It's pretty accurate, though, clearly, I'd contend that they're wrong in giving the Jets advantages in a few positional categories.  For those of you who don't have Insider access, I'll kill the anticipation: Scouts predicts a final score of Bills 28, Jets 23.  I'd take it.

   We're not done with Scouts, who name the Bills as one of four teams staring through a glorious window of opportunity.  Apparently, the Cardinals, Falcons and Packers are right there with us - and I'd have a hard time arguing that.

   BRUUUUUUUUUUCE.  Former Buffalo Bills defensive end Bruce Smith - the NFL's all-time leading sack artist, with 200 career take-downs - headlines a first-year Hall of Fame potential class that includes former greats Broncos TE Shannon Sharpe and Steelers DB Rod Woodson.  That's a heck of a trio right there.

Royal, offense fumble away key road game (Associated Press)

For a team that has made a name for itself with excellent fourth quarter play this season, the Buffalo Bills sure fell short of expectations today.

Four second-half turnovers and 18 unanswered points by the Miami Dolphins led to a 25-16 loss for the Bills in their first AFC East matchup of the season.  The Bills remained in the game until late into the fourth quarter, but their unexpectedly sloppy play caught up to them by the end of the game.

Miami deserves credit for this win; they earned it.  Chad Pennington carved Buffalo's defense up to the tune of 314 passing yards.  Ted Ginn Jr. had 175 receiving yards, nearly matching his season total of 177.  The Dolphins were able to make plays on their home field while the Bills tripped over their own feet.

Trent Edwards is M.I.A.
The mystique surrounding Bills QB Trent Edwards evaporated after a miserable performance in Miami.  Sure, he completed 21 of 35 passes for 227 yards; those aren't mediocre statistics by any means.  It was his interception, taken safety, and lost fumble, however, that humbled Buffalo's young signal caller.  His QB rating was a dismal 67.2 on the day; his performance was much worse than that rating.

Lee Evans continued his strong play against the Dolphins; his 116 yards on 7 receptions paced the Bills.  The offense began to struggle, however, when third-down specialist WR Josh Reed left the game with a strained Achilles.

For the first time all season, Edwards had help on the ground.  Buffalo's rushing attack rebounded from a sluggish start to the season in a big way today; unfortunately, playing from behind eliminated their effectiveness.  Marshawn Lynch and Fred Jackson combined for 102 yards on 23 carries, and Lynch scored from eight yards out to put the Bills up 16-7 early in the third quarter.  The Dolphins, however, dominated from that point forward.

Defense inconsistent, especially against the pass
It was undeniably the Bills' four turnovers that did the team in, but an abysmal performance by the pass defense put the Bills in a precarious position to begin with.  With CB Terrence McGee still hobbled with his sprained knee, Pennington and the Dolphins attacked - and defensive coordinator Perry Fewell couldn't counter.  This was Ginn's best game as a professional by far, and the Bills' inability to shut him down is as embarrassing a stat as any on this day.

As for the Wildcat, it was, essentially, a non-factor.  It was an efficient running play for the Dolphins and led to a few first downs, but in the grand scheme of things, Buffalo had much bigger problems defensively.  Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams combined for just 59 rushing yards on the day (including a Williams score); it was Pennington, who has shredded the Bills in the past, that did Buffalo in today.

Langston Walker blocked a field goal in the first half to highlight another highly average special teams effort by the Bills.

Game balls
When you embarrass yourselves on the road as the Bills did today, nobody gets a game ball - even though there were a few nice individual performances today.

Roll call
38 Rumblers showed up to commiserate in this most awful of losses.  Props to WABillsfan, whose hatred for Perry Fewell led to 122 comments, pacing the day.  Thanks to everyone who joined...

StuckInNJ, krytime, Hassanali181, TheK-GunNeedsReloaded, RabidBuffalo, Tatunka, Northern1, Brian Galliford, NJBillsfan, Scoe221, WABillsfan, silverstreak3k, Memphisbillsfan, jdol1568, Cinga, twoeightnine, Thronsen, patamunzo, ccthemovieman, Kurupt, keuka121, SebastianPruiti, D.O., fletcherjd, chaosthepitbull, BeastMode, BillsNorth, Crizal, pozzed51, MonStarr_716, Joe P., Ron From NM, BenAllen, karovda, TheSharp, Gino Parilli, The Buffalonian, GhostDogg47

Buffalo needs to take this one in the chin, realize that they're not immune to playing like crap, and move past it.  So do we.  We'll take a couple of days to look back at this "performance" and move on as well.  With the Jets and Patriots both pulling out late wins against lesser opponents today, this is the worst possible scenario the Bills could have had today.  Bad Sunday, folks.  How the Bills respond is now the biggest key.

     
Buffalo Bills (5-1) at Miami Dolphins (2-4)
Sunday, October 26, 2008 1PM EDT

Since the Buffalo Bills and the Miami Dolphins have played each other plenty over the years, I decided to revisit the last 3 year as opposed to the last 5 games. Over that span the Bills have won 5 of 6 and 4 in a row.

October 9, 2005: Bills 20, Dolphins 14 (in Buffalo)
The Bills scored 17 unanswered points to start the game and hung on to win. The Dolphins commit 18 penalties for 102 yards in this one, which surely helped Kelly Holcomb pull out the win.

December 4, 2005: Dolphins 24, Bills 23 (in Miami)
Tough loss here.  The Bills jumped out to a 21-point lead on the strength of 3 J.P. Losman-to-Lee Evans touchdowns. The Bills offense then proceeds to go and hide. The Dolphins score 21 fourth quarter points, capped by a Sage Rosenfels-to-Chris Chambers 4-yard TD pass with six seconds on the clock.

September 17, 2006: Bills 16, Dolphins 6 (in Miami)
J.P. threw for a whopping 83 yards, but the Bills played solid defense, sacking Dante Culpepper 7 times and pulling off an early season upset of the heavily favored Dolphins. This game marks the start of the down turn for the Dolphins.

December 17, 2006: Bills 21, Dolphins 0 (in Buffalo)
The Bills finished off the season sweep of the Dolphins with a shut-out. The Bills only gave up 6 points to the Dolphins all year! J.P. Losman tossed 3 TDs, 1 each to Robert Royal, Josh Reed, and Lee Evans.

November 11, 2007: Bills 13, Dolphins 10 (in Miami)
The Bills were losing 10 -2 heading into the fourth quarter, the only points coming on a Chris Kelsay safety. The Bills scored 11 points in the final stanza, including a Rian Lindell FG with :46 left on the clock to pull out the win. Rumblings recap.

December 9, 2007: Bills 38, Dolphins 17 (in Buffalo)
Robert Royal and Lee Evans each caught 2 TD passes from then-rookie Trent Edwards.  John Beck practically handed George Wilson a TD and the Bills roll in an easy victory. Rumblings recap.

Reed could be in for a big game against San Diego (Associated Press)

What's the secret to being - and beating - a good football team?  The answers are varied, and depend largely on circumstance.  Therefore, considering the circumstances of this weekend's matchup between the Buffalo Bills and San Diego Chargers - good weather, an inconsistent Bills rushing attack, and a highly potent Chargers offense - there's an easy way for the Bills to be, and beat, a good football team on Sunday.

Do unto San Diego what Arizona killed you with.

Buffalo needs to keep the ball out of San Diego's hands for as long as possible.  The Chargers are susceptible to being controlled in this area of the game - in fact, they've held the ball for at least 30 minutes in just two of the six games they've played this season.  They're 2-0 in those games, and 1-3 in all other contests.  The Bills have a golden opportunity to continue that trend against San Diego.  They should do it through the air.

Ball control via air, not ground
When the Bills dropped a 41-17 decision to the Arizona Cardinals in Week 5, Buffalo should have noticed that the Cardinals were providing them with the offensive blueprint that could allow the Bills to handle the Chargers.  They controlled the clock, and thus the flow of the game, through the air.

Kurt Warner completed a whopping 33 of 42 passes, none of them for a gain longer than 18 yards.  That plan, coupled with efficiency in the red zone (Warner threw two touchdowns, and Edgerrin James and Tim Hightower rushed for three more), allowed the Cardinals to wear out the Bills' defense simply by keeping them on the field.  That opened up the Cards' ground game - which pounded out 113 yards on the day - and the efficiency allowed the Cardinals to chew up over 36 minutes of possession.

The formula worked to perfection.  The Bills have the pieces in place to execute such a scheme.  For a plethora of reasons, the Bills should make every effort to employ it in just over two days' time.  That type of attack has been a weakness for the Chargers for its first six games this season.

Controlling San Diego
The way to beat the Chargers isn't to "pressure Philip Rivers" or "shut down LaDainian Tomlinson" or "contain Antonio Gates".  The key to beating those three - along with the other explosive offensive weapons the Chargers possess - is to keep the ball out of their hands.  For as long as possible.  The ball control passing game does just that.

The Bills have struggled to run the ball.  So have the Cardinals.  They used a controlled passing game - with enough runs thrown in to keep the Bills honest - to open up their own rushing attack later in the fourth quarter.  The Bills have diverse weapons at running back, so the duo of Marshawn Lynch and Fred Jackson should be emphasized in each facet of the game.  They can contribute to a controlled passing attack, as can Josh Reed, James Hardy and - yes - even Lee Evans.

Trent Edwards' health is paramount.  Getting the ball out of his hands quickly increases his chances of survival.  It also reduces the pressure on Buffalo's pass protection, which has struggled.  And hey - if the Chargers decide to sit on the short game, it's their loss.  The Bills can beat them deep with a certain Mr. Evans and his 27 yards per catch.

Being scared of San Diego
Bills fans, for the most part, like to err on the side of caution.  Thus, when we look at the Chargers, we tend to mess ourselves a little when we see names like Rivers, Tomlinson, Gates and Chambers.  It's not unwarranted - clearly, San Diego has an explosive offense.

What gets lost in the shuffle of "ooo-ing" and "ahh-ing" over San Diego's weapons is the fact that the Bills match up very well with San Diego in the remaining two phases of the game, particularly when we have the ball.  In reality, San Diego's offense is the wild card of this game - and Buffalo's defense certainly has its hands full.  But so does San Diego's defense and special teams.

Don't forget the East Coast advantage.  Don't forget that the Chargers are crossing the Atlantic after this game.  But most especially, don't forget the most important factor of Sunday's contest - the Chargers have team weaknesses that the Bills are equipped to exploit.  Taking into account the raucous crowd that is sure to be at The Ralph this Sunday, I'm unusually confident that the Bills are going to find a way to pull out a W.  Call me crazy (and I'm coming close to doing it myself) - but if the Bills can control the flow of the game off the arm of Mr. Edwards, their chances of winning are quite good.

Evans (left), receivers more productive in '08 (buffalobills.com)

In 2007, the Buffalo Bills fielded one of their worst offensive units in team history.  En route to a 7-9 record, the Bills shuffled quarterbacks and scored just 20 touchdowns in what was, statistically, a mediocre season on just about every level.

Fast forward to 2008.  Trent Edwards has settled the Bills' instability at quarterback by emerging as a legitimate NFL starter with tons of potential.  But that's been the only major change.  Even with very little personnel turnover (rookie WR James Hardy was the only significant off-season import for the unit), the turnaround that Buffalo's offense has made has been surprising - and even more surprising, the biggest strides have come in the passing department.

The Bills have improved in just about every major statistical category offensively, most importantly in points scored (the Bills are averaging 25.2 points per game this season, up from 15.8 in 2007).  Yet despite the significant strides made, there's still room for improvement.

Quarterbacks making each play count
We're all aware of how well Edwards has played.  He's the most exciting Bills player in quite some time, at least in terms of the excitement he engenders for future prospects of the organization.  But even J.P. Losman, filling in for Edwards for a game, has jumped in on the statistical prowess.

A quarterback's effectiveness is best measured in yards per attempt.  In 2007, Bills passing plays averaged 6.39 yards per passing attempt - a mediocre number that reflects the team's inability to make big plays through the air.  That number has skyrocketed to 8.24 yards per attempt in 2008, as the Bills have made more plays downfield and have gotten much more from their receivers in run-after-catch yardage.

Bills quarterbacks - yes, even Losman - are distributing the ball effectively and letting their receivers make plays.  It's not an elite development, but it's clearly a step in the right direction.  (Get well soon, Trent.)

Receiver production up
The Bills took some heat when their only significant upgrade to a mediocre receiving corps was the rookie Hardy, whose impact has been minimal through the first five games of his inaugural season.  Effective quarterback play, however, has turned this "mediocre" receiving corps into a bunch of playmakers.

In 2007, the Bills' top four receivers (basically, swap Peerless Price for Hardy) combined for 148 receptions, 1,847 yards and just six scores.  The touchdowns were most concerning, but 2008 is different - Bills receivers have already nabbed four scores this season, and more are on the horizon.  If statistical trends continue for the remainder of this season, Bills receivers will see increases in receptions (projected 157), yards (2,483) and touchdowns (13).

Lee Evans and Josh Reed have been the go-to guys.  Evans is currently averaging 27 yards per reception, second in the league for players with 10 or more receptions.  Reed's production has been a bit more surprising; in line for a career year, Reed has become the go-to-guy on third down.  14 of Reed's team-leading 21 receptions (67%) have created first downs; Evans has added 14 more on his 16 receptions (87.5%).

Running backs getting involved, too

One of the more noticeable differences between 2007 and 2008 has been the involvement of running backs in the passing game.  Offensive Coordinator Turk Schonert promised to emphasize the talents of Marshawn Lynch and Fred Jackson as receivers, and he's delivered in a big way.

In 2007, Bills running backs caught 55 passes - and that total includes the 15 hauled in by the now-departed Anthony Thomas.  Lynch and Jackson have already hit the half-way point of that total this season, as they've combined to catch 29 balls.  That puts the duo on pace to catch 93 passes this season, a very high number for any running back duo in today's NFL.

Where to improve: tight ends and pass protection
It's been great that Buffalo's running backs have been playing the role of safety valve, because the Bills have seen a drop-off in production from the tight end position.  Sure, Robert Royal has increased his production (he's on pace to outstrip his 2007 reception total by 17), but the position has dropped off as a whole.  Bills tight ends caught 56 passes in 2007; they've got just 15 this season.  The return of rookie Derek Fine from injury likely won't help balloon those stats.  Lynch and Jackson have picked up the slack, but the lack of a threat down the seam still hinders this team.

The biggest hindrance, however, has been pass protection.  The Bills aren't throwing much more than they did in 2007, surprisingly, yet the excellent pass protection that Bills quarterbacks enjoyed last season has been MIA.  Bills quarterbacks were sacked 26 times in '07, or less than twice per game.  In just five games this season, Bills quarterbacks have been sacked 16 times; if that pace continues, the Bills will likely surrender double their '07 sack total (52).  That's not good news for Edwards and his concussion, nor for the still-highly-unreliable Losman.

Even considering these issues, there's far more promise to Buffalo's aerial attack this year than we saw in 2007.  The difference has been night and day, and it's been reflected in the team's overall performance.  Don't expect the tight ends to produce more than their current clip; we can be a bit more optimistic about the pass protection given the bye week.  In the end, it all comes down to the quarterback, however; the emergence of Edwards, with an assist from Schonert, has turned an awful Bills passing game into, in reality, an excellent one.

I know you don't want to re-live it; I didn't much enjoy it myself.  But in my desperate search to find someone to blame, and thus loathe, in regards to Trent Edwards' concussion suffered in Sunday's loss, the following analysis proves that the blame may lie on the shoulders of an unsatisfactory player.  Rumblers, it's our first ever Paint Analysis - and if you like the glorious crappiness of this exercise, perhaps it could become a more regular feature...

The Situation
Buffalo ball, 3rd and 6, BUF 30, early first quarter

* Buffalo comes out in a three-wide set.  Edwards (5) is in the shotgun with Marshawn Lynch (23) to his left.
* Arizona counters with a dime look - three corners, three safeties.  Adrian Wilson (24) is lined up essentially in no-man's land; it's apparent that he's going to do as he pleases on this play.
* Hardy comes in motion, eventually settling to the right and slightly behind Robert Royal (84).  Simultaneously, Chike Okeafor (56) and Karlos Dansby (58) cheat up to the line of scrimmage, and Wilson comes up to, apparently, take Hardy in the slot.  Everything the Cardinals are doing to this point screams "blitz up the gut", including Wilson's actions.  The Cards appear to be playing man in the slots behind this blitz.  Appearances, as it turns out, can be deceiving.
* Other relevant notes: Eric Green (25) is lined up across Josh Reed (82) in the slot; Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie (29) and Antrel Rolle (21) have Lee Evans (83) bracketed on the left side of the formation; Aaron Francisco (47) and Roderick Hood (26) are clearly in a zone shell behind Wilson.

The Snap

* Surprise!  Arizona's blitzing, but it's from the edges.  Dansby (58) and Okeafor (56) drop off into zone coverage, and Green (25) and Wilson (24) blitz off the edges.
* The actions of Arizona's defensive linemen make this play.  LaBoy (55) and Antonio Smith (94) rush on the interior, pinching the Bills' line into an even more tight-knit group.  It's compounded by the disguised interior blitz.  As a result, there's a pileup, and Langston Walker ends up assisting on Smith when he really didn't need to.  Wilson runs by unscathed.
* Marshawn (23) easily picks up Green, the other edge rusher.
* Reed (82) and Royal (84) are essentially decoys for the guy running the hot route, Hardy (81).  Reed draws coverage from the dropping Dansby.  Okeafor, meanwhile, is stuck in no-man's land between Hardy and Royal, who run an excellent route combination on the converted defensive end.  The problem, however, is two-fold: Hardy doesn't run it quick enough, and Wilson's untouched.
* Edwards reads the blitz and immediately knows Hardy is his guy.  Kid's sharp as a tack.  Here comes Wilson, however...

The Hit

* Trent starts drifting backwards, waiting for the Hardy/Royal route combination to develop.  He makes the throw quickly; the ball is out a split second before Hardy turns his head.  The problem is, Edwards has to hold the ball a touch longer than he'd like, and he ends up throwing the ball off his back foot.  He's essentially ripe for Wilson's picking.
* Edwards delivers the first down throw, but at an awful expense.  Wilson hits high to try to knock the ball out; Edwards is too quick on the draw, but Wilson hits under Trent's shoulder and drives his helmet - in a non-dirty fashion; it has more to do with momentum than anything - up into Edwards' chin.
* As the pair go down, the back of Edwards' helmet hits the turf first.  He's very clearly going to have a sore neck and a rung bell.  Wilson - mostly because of Edwards' drifting and his own explosiveness - drives through Edwards and lands on the quarterback with his full body weight.  If Wilson gets fined, it'll be because of this last detail - he wasn't playing dirty, as many Bills fans have unfairly claimed.

The Aftermath

Where should the blame lie?  It's spread out a bit; part of it is on a great blitz scheme by Clancy Pendergast, part of it is on Langston Walker for pinching in when he should have fanned out and tried to knock Wilson off course (though, admittedly, he wouldn't have had much time to do this), and part of it on Edwards for being a smart, gritty, loveable guy.

Will Wilson get suspended?  Almost certainly not.  Will he get fined?  If he does, it won't be for a large amount, and it shouldn't be; it won't be for a dirty hit, either.  If Wilson has to pay up, it'll be because he landed on Edwards with all of his weight.  My guess?  Wilson won't get fined, either, and he probably shouldn't.  He was just playing football.

The good news: Edwards is reportedly doing well - or, rather, about as well as can be expected at this point.  With the bye week upon us, Edwards has plenty of time to shake off the cobwebs, get plenty of sleep, take a little vacation and get ready for San Diego.  It's far too early to speculate on his availability for that game, but to this point, signs are far more encouraging than they are discouraging.  Get well soon, Trent.