Evans (left), receivers more productive in '08 (buffalobills.com)

In 2007, the Buffalo Bills fielded one of their worst offensive units in team history.  En route to a 7-9 record, the Bills shuffled quarterbacks and scored just 20 touchdowns in what was, statistically, a mediocre season on just about every level.

Fast forward to 2008.  Trent Edwards has settled the Bills' instability at quarterback by emerging as a legitimate NFL starter with tons of potential.  But that's been the only major change.  Even with very little personnel turnover (rookie WR James Hardy was the only significant off-season import for the unit), the turnaround that Buffalo's offense has made has been surprising - and even more surprising, the biggest strides have come in the passing department.

The Bills have improved in just about every major statistical category offensively, most importantly in points scored (the Bills are averaging 25.2 points per game this season, up from 15.8 in 2007).  Yet despite the significant strides made, there's still room for improvement.

Quarterbacks making each play count
We're all aware of how well Edwards has played.  He's the most exciting Bills player in quite some time, at least in terms of the excitement he engenders for future prospects of the organization.  But even J.P. Losman, filling in for Edwards for a game, has jumped in on the statistical prowess.

A quarterback's effectiveness is best measured in yards per attempt.  In 2007, Bills passing plays averaged 6.39 yards per passing attempt - a mediocre number that reflects the team's inability to make big plays through the air.  That number has skyrocketed to 8.24 yards per attempt in 2008, as the Bills have made more plays downfield and have gotten much more from their receivers in run-after-catch yardage.

Bills quarterbacks - yes, even Losman - are distributing the ball effectively and letting their receivers make plays.  It's not an elite development, but it's clearly a step in the right direction.  (Get well soon, Trent.)

Receiver production up
The Bills took some heat when their only significant upgrade to a mediocre receiving corps was the rookie Hardy, whose impact has been minimal through the first five games of his inaugural season.  Effective quarterback play, however, has turned this "mediocre" receiving corps into a bunch of playmakers.

In 2007, the Bills' top four receivers (basically, swap Peerless Price for Hardy) combined for 148 receptions, 1,847 yards and just six scores.  The touchdowns were most concerning, but 2008 is different - Bills receivers have already nabbed four scores this season, and more are on the horizon.  If statistical trends continue for the remainder of this season, Bills receivers will see increases in receptions (projected 157), yards (2,483) and touchdowns (13).

Lee Evans and Josh Reed have been the go-to guys.  Evans is currently averaging 27 yards per reception, second in the league for players with 10 or more receptions.  Reed's production has been a bit more surprising; in line for a career year, Reed has become the go-to-guy on third down.  14 of Reed's team-leading 21 receptions (67%) have created first downs; Evans has added 14 more on his 16 receptions (87.5%).

Running backs getting involved, too

One of the more noticeable differences between 2007 and 2008 has been the involvement of running backs in the passing game.  Offensive Coordinator Turk Schonert promised to emphasize the talents of Marshawn Lynch and Fred Jackson as receivers, and he's delivered in a big way.

In 2007, Bills running backs caught 55 passes - and that total includes the 15 hauled in by the now-departed Anthony Thomas.  Lynch and Jackson have already hit the half-way point of that total this season, as they've combined to catch 29 balls.  That puts the duo on pace to catch 93 passes this season, a very high number for any running back duo in today's NFL.

Where to improve: tight ends and pass protection
It's been great that Buffalo's running backs have been playing the role of safety valve, because the Bills have seen a drop-off in production from the tight end position.  Sure, Robert Royal has increased his production (he's on pace to outstrip his 2007 reception total by 17), but the position has dropped off as a whole.  Bills tight ends caught 56 passes in 2007; they've got just 15 this season.  The return of rookie Derek Fine from injury likely won't help balloon those stats.  Lynch and Jackson have picked up the slack, but the lack of a threat down the seam still hinders this team.

The biggest hindrance, however, has been pass protection.  The Bills aren't throwing much more than they did in 2007, surprisingly, yet the excellent pass protection that Bills quarterbacks enjoyed last season has been MIA.  Bills quarterbacks were sacked 26 times in '07, or less than twice per game.  In just five games this season, Bills quarterbacks have been sacked 16 times; if that pace continues, the Bills will likely surrender double their '07 sack total (52).  That's not good news for Edwards and his concussion, nor for the still-highly-unreliable Losman.

Even considering these issues, there's far more promise to Buffalo's aerial attack this year than we saw in 2007.  The difference has been night and day, and it's been reflected in the team's overall performance.  Don't expect the tight ends to produce more than their current clip; we can be a bit more optimistic about the pass protection given the bye week.  In the end, it all comes down to the quarterback, however; the emergence of Edwards, with an assist from Schonert, has turned an awful Bills passing game into, in reality, an excellent one.

I know you don't want to re-live it; I didn't much enjoy it myself.  But in my desperate search to find someone to blame, and thus loathe, in regards to Trent Edwards' concussion suffered in Sunday's loss, the following analysis proves that the blame may lie on the shoulders of an unsatisfactory player.  Rumblers, it's our first ever Paint Analysis - and if you like the glorious crappiness of this exercise, perhaps it could become a more regular feature...

The Situation
Buffalo ball, 3rd and 6, BUF 30, early first quarter

* Buffalo comes out in a three-wide set.  Edwards (5) is in the shotgun with Marshawn Lynch (23) to his left.
* Arizona counters with a dime look - three corners, three safeties.  Adrian Wilson (24) is lined up essentially in no-man's land; it's apparent that he's going to do as he pleases on this play.
* Hardy comes in motion, eventually settling to the right and slightly behind Robert Royal (84).  Simultaneously, Chike Okeafor (56) and Karlos Dansby (58) cheat up to the line of scrimmage, and Wilson comes up to, apparently, take Hardy in the slot.  Everything the Cardinals are doing to this point screams "blitz up the gut", including Wilson's actions.  The Cards appear to be playing man in the slots behind this blitz.  Appearances, as it turns out, can be deceiving.
* Other relevant notes: Eric Green (25) is lined up across Josh Reed (82) in the slot; Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie (29) and Antrel Rolle (21) have Lee Evans (83) bracketed on the left side of the formation; Aaron Francisco (47) and Roderick Hood (26) are clearly in a zone shell behind Wilson.

The Snap

* Surprise!  Arizona's blitzing, but it's from the edges.  Dansby (58) and Okeafor (56) drop off into zone coverage, and Green (25) and Wilson (24) blitz off the edges.
* The actions of Arizona's defensive linemen make this play.  LaBoy (55) and Antonio Smith (94) rush on the interior, pinching the Bills' line into an even more tight-knit group.  It's compounded by the disguised interior blitz.  As a result, there's a pileup, and Langston Walker ends up assisting on Smith when he really didn't need to.  Wilson runs by unscathed.
* Marshawn (23) easily picks up Green, the other edge rusher.
* Reed (82) and Royal (84) are essentially decoys for the guy running the hot route, Hardy (81).  Reed draws coverage from the dropping Dansby.  Okeafor, meanwhile, is stuck in no-man's land between Hardy and Royal, who run an excellent route combination on the converted defensive end.  The problem, however, is two-fold: Hardy doesn't run it quick enough, and Wilson's untouched.
* Edwards reads the blitz and immediately knows Hardy is his guy.  Kid's sharp as a tack.  Here comes Wilson, however...

The Hit

* Trent starts drifting backwards, waiting for the Hardy/Royal route combination to develop.  He makes the throw quickly; the ball is out a split second before Hardy turns his head.  The problem is, Edwards has to hold the ball a touch longer than he'd like, and he ends up throwing the ball off his back foot.  He's essentially ripe for Wilson's picking.
* Edwards delivers the first down throw, but at an awful expense.  Wilson hits high to try to knock the ball out; Edwards is too quick on the draw, but Wilson hits under Trent's shoulder and drives his helmet - in a non-dirty fashion; it has more to do with momentum than anything - up into Edwards' chin.
* As the pair go down, the back of Edwards' helmet hits the turf first.  He's very clearly going to have a sore neck and a rung bell.  Wilson - mostly because of Edwards' drifting and his own explosiveness - drives through Edwards and lands on the quarterback with his full body weight.  If Wilson gets fined, it'll be because of this last detail - he wasn't playing dirty, as many Bills fans have unfairly claimed.

The Aftermath

Where should the blame lie?  It's spread out a bit; part of it is on a great blitz scheme by Clancy Pendergast, part of it is on Langston Walker for pinching in when he should have fanned out and tried to knock Wilson off course (though, admittedly, he wouldn't have had much time to do this), and part of it on Edwards for being a smart, gritty, loveable guy.

Will Wilson get suspended?  Almost certainly not.  Will he get fined?  If he does, it won't be for a large amount, and it shouldn't be; it won't be for a dirty hit, either.  If Wilson has to pay up, it'll be because he landed on Edwards with all of his weight.  My guess?  Wilson won't get fined, either, and he probably shouldn't.  He was just playing football.

The good news: Edwards is reportedly doing well - or, rather, about as well as can be expected at this point.  With the bye week upon us, Edwards has plenty of time to shake off the cobwebs, get plenty of sleep, take a little vacation and get ready for San Diego.  It's far too early to speculate on his availability for that game, but to this point, signs are far more encouraging than they are discouraging.  Get well soon, Trent.

Edwards injured on third play of game (Associated Press)

To quote Anchorman: "Boy, that escalated quickly... I mean, that really got out of hand fast."  J.P. Losman couldn't retaliate with a trident.  Not-so-obscure pop culture references aside, the Buffalo Bills can no longer count themselves amongst the NFL's unbeaten teams.

Trent Edwards suffered a concussion on the third play of the game, and an abysmal defensive effort by the Bills led to a 41-17 loss in the desert to the Arizona Cardinals.

Buffalo is 4-1 heading into the bye week, and the health of Edwards will be the main topic of interest over the next two weeks.  Edwards was injured on a hit by Cardinals strong safety Adrian Wilson (pictured to the right); he was on the turf for a number of moments, walked off of the field with assistance, was carted to the locker room and did not return.  I'm sure we'll be hearing a lot more about Edwards in the coming days.

Defense can't stop Warner
It was a poor defensive effort, however, that was the main culprit in Buffalo's first loss of the season.  Cardinals QB Kurt Warner enjoyed one of the better performances of his career, completing 33 of 42 passes for 250 yards and two scores in a dominant offensive outing for Arizona.  The Cards didn't make too many big plays through the air, but they didn't have to; Arizona held the ball for over 36 minutes in this one and wore down Buffalo's defense from the start.  Edgerrin James and Tim Hightower combined for 3 rushing scores.

Coming into this game, Buffalo's defense led the league by a wide margin in third down defense, holding opponents to around a 20% conversion rate.  The Cardinals weren't listening; they converted 9 of 15 third-down opportunities (60%) to control the ball, and the Bills couldn't make a play defensively to counter their dominance.  It was quite out of character for this Bills defense; rest assured we'll be looking for reasons why in some more in-depth film reviews this week.

Losman keeps things interesting... for a while
J.P. Losman replaced Edwards early in the first quarter and kept things interesting for a time.  Trailing 14-0, Losman found Lee Evans wide open for an 87-yard touchdown to cut the lead in half; he later scored on a quarterback draw in the first half to cut the lead to 21-14, which Arizona extended by halftime.

Losman's stat line looks OK (15 completions in 21 attempts, 220 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT, 101.2 QB rating), but it doesn't tell the whole story.  He didn't get much help from his defense, to be certain, but Losman took 5 sacks, lost two fumbles and threw an interception, killing any faint hopes of another fourth-quarter comeback attempt.  Losman doesn't deserve blame for the loss by any stretch of the imagination, but his errors certainly didn't help the cause.

Falling behind early, the Bills never had a chance to establish the offensive balance that was so crucial to their success on the day.  Marshawn Lynch finished with 55 yards on 13 carries, Fred Jackson carried once for five yards, and the Bills had their worst offensive performance of the season.  That was bound to happen, however, with Edwards out of the lineup and the defense performing so poorly.

Game Balls
None.  There are no awards in a losing effort.  We can only hope that these young Bills use this effort as motivation to continue to get better.  The Bills simply ran into a buzz saw in Arizona; the Cardinals are a very good football team (clearly the best team in the NFC West) with a huge home-field advantage, and the Bills were missing their leader.  Take this loss with a grain of salt; it's unfortunate, but it's also very clearly not the end of the world.

Oh, and Mr. Edwards?  Get well soon.

Open Thread Roll Call
Thanks to the 40 folks who stopped by to share in today's misery.  WABillsFan paced the day with 161 comments.  The roll call...

Ron From NM, RabidBuffalo, NYTXFAN, StuckInNJ, Cinga, Calvert, twoeightnine, silverstreak3k, big john, tlowe52, GhostDogg47, fletcherjd, jdol1568, NJBillsfan, TheSharp, illeagle12, WABillsfan, Zumone, Tony_O, Hassanali181, Crizal, the Skycap, Memphisbillsfan, dontuan, mjt1586, chaosthepitbull, Kurupt, keuka121, BeastMode, jj24, SebastianPruiti, Dyl, Joe P., CB #37, geno227, BearsNecessity, BillsNorth, grego32, Hopefulcynic

     
Buffalo Bills (4-0) at Arizona Cardinals (2-2)
Sunday, October 5, 2008 - 4:15 PM EDT
SB Nation's Cardinals coverage: Revenge of the Birds

The 4-0 (how great does that sound?!?) Buffalo Bills head out to the desert to face the Arizona Cardinals in a tough intra-conference matchup.  The Bills are looking to move to 5-0 for the first time since 1991 and for just the fourth time in franchise history.  Below are my keys to a Bills victory and a perfect record heading into the bye week:

Harass Kurt Warner: Pretty self-explanatory, but do whatever is necessary to get after Warner. Blitz him from any and all angles, run stunts, create pressure up the middle, hit him with a 2x4, etc.  Simply put, pressure and harass him, and he will turn the ball over.  We cannot allow him to sit back in the pocket because he will pick us apart and hit his talented wideouts.  He's as good as it gets when given the time to throw; it's time for us to have a game like the Jets D just had against him last week.  To do so, we have to get after him.  I like the Aaron Schobel vs Mike Gandy matchup.  If there is ever a game for Schobel to look like a Pro Bowler, it's this week against our old turnstile, Gandy.

Live on the Edge: Don't let Warner beat us; instead, force Edgerrin James to crank out the yards.  He's nowhere near the explosive runner he used to be and it may be in our defense's best interest to go the nickel route and challenge the Cardinals to beat us by running it.  I have no concern about James and the Cards' running game, so it is likely we focus on stopping the Cardinals through the air and take our chances against the Edge.

Take Fitzgerald out of the game: Easier said than done, I'd say.  With Anquan Boldin more than likely out of this game, Larry Fitzgerald will be the apple of Kurt Warner's eye.  And he could very well destroy our secondary if given the opportunity.  Because of that, I would focus heavily on shutting him down, shading a safety (likely Ko Simpson) toward him early and often.  With Terrence McGee out, we'll have to provide help to Jabari Greer and the young corners, Leodis McKelvin and Ashton Youboty.  I'll take my chances with Steve Breaston and Jerheme Urban rather than letting Fitzgerald run free.

Control the line of scrimmage...offensively: There comes a time when the OL has to step up their play and finally hit their potential.  We've been so far from that level the past few weeks, but this is a good week for them to return to form.  Darnell Dockett is a very good player for the Cards, but their other starters are nothing to be overly scared of: Gabe Watson, Antonio Smith and Travis LaBoy (sorry Cards fans, don't kill me).  They have actually been quite solid this year stopping the run and getting after the QB, so despite their anonymity, they have been effective. The linebackers, led by Karlos Dansby, are pretty solid, so it will take a strong effort from our big nasties to control the game.  WIth the way they've played recently, I have a feeling that pride will kick in and they will finally have a big game, instead of a big quarter or two like we've been experiencing. 

Show Lee Evans off: Having signed Evans to a brand new, big time contract extension, I think fans around the league would like to see whether Evans is worth that type of money or not.  This is the perfect week for Evans to have a big time game to prove to everyone how good he can be.  With a semi-hobbled Eric Green, a rather solid, but unspectacular Rod Hood and the young Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie manning the CB spots for Arizona, Evans will have enough opportunities to excel this week.  The deep ball was a major concern for the Cardinals D last week, so that looks to be an area Trent Edwards needs to attack this week.  Like I say every week, get Lee into it early. I'd love to see him finally have an 8+ catch game.

Dominate Special Teams: This should be a close game which could come down to Special Teams.  The Bills should have a significant advantage in all areas of the "third phase", and this is an area to excel in this week.  Steve Breaston is a solid punt returner, but overall hasn't had much success returning kicks or punts this year.  Dirk Johnson is a mediocre punter who will give McKelvin and Fred Jackson opportunities to return punts, so the blocking needs to remain as strong as it has all season there.  As a unit, the Cardinals have been one of the bottom teams in the league this year, while the Bills rank near the top, per usual.  This would be a good week for McKelvin to break that big kick return we've all been waiting for.

***

This is a big game for the Bills and a win would leave a great taste in their mouth heading into the bye.  It is also another opportunity for the team to show that they are a contender this year and are able to win tough games, including tough games on the road.  Go Bills, and let's make it 5-0!

Stay tuned to Buffalo Rumblings and tomorrow's Open Game Thread for the "live chat" during today's big game with the Cardinals!  That thread will open approximately an hour before the 4:15 PM EDT kickoff.  Until then, GO BILLS!

Here are my offensive line notes from the Bills' win over the Rams.  It may be hard to believe but this is even longer than the post I did for the Raiders game...

Drive 1

Pass 1: 49 yards to Evans
Run 1: 20 yards by Lynch (negated by holding call) left B gap
- Peters was flagged for holding. While Brian thought it was a crappy call, Peters was, in fact, holding.  He had his right hand in the DE’s jersey arm hole.  He used his hold to keep the DE from turning and chasing down Lynch. While it didn’t appear that the DE was going to be able to catch Lynch without the hold, a hold it was and it killed the play.
- Dock put 95 down.
- Fowler pulled and stuffed/locked up 1 filling LB (Schouman took out the other) which helped spring Lynch for the run.
- Butler kept the DT turned away from the play.
- Walker pulled and did no particular good.
Pass 2: 6 yards to Lynch
Pass 3: Overthrow to Hardy (Edwards had him for a first down but simply missed)
- Lynch gave a pretty weak effort at chipping Peters’ guy.
Pass 4: 9 yards to Lynch
- At first blush I thought that Peters had killed the drive based on his holding penalty.  However, on closer review Edwards gets the blame as he could have had the first down with an accurate pass to Hardy.  The drive ended in a field goal.

Drive 1: 0 blitzes, 0 stacks

Continue reading this post »

Can Peters rebound from 3 sloppy starts? (buffalobills.com)

The Buffalo Bills and Arizona Cardinals are set to square off this coming Sunday as the Bills look to extend their record to 5-0 for the first time since 1991.  The Cardinals, meanwhile, will look to end a two-game skid in their first home game since a Week 2 trouncing of Miami.

Several key matchups will hold huge importance in this game.  We're glad to be joined once again by cgolden of Revenge of the Birds, SB Nation's Cardinals blog, as the two of us break down four key matchups for the Bills/Cardinals tilt.  On to the matchups...

Bills WR Lee Evans vs Cardinals CB Roderick Hood
cgolden - Lee Evans is a tough match-up for any cornerback because of his big play ability and Roderick Hood will certainly have his hands full on Sunday. Evans is having a great year, averaging over 23 yards per catch, so Hood will have to bring his A-game to keep Evans from getting deep. Evans is not only a legitimate down the field threat, he's also shifty enough to turn every short pass into a huge play. Roderick Hood is a good tackler but the Cardinals don't play much press coverage, which could leave Evans open for some quick, short passes. Hood is the Cardinals' best corner by far but he's not anything spectacular so I wouldn't be surprised to see the Cardinals keep a safety over the top. Much of the Cardinals defensive game plan will depend on Adrian Wilson's avaliability on Sunday, but either way, Hood will need to some help to contain Evans.  Advantage: Bills

Yours Truly - Evans is off to a fast start.  He'll never be a guy who catches a large volume of passes, but he definitely makes his catches count (see his 23.7 YPC average through four games).  When Evans is at his best, he's making a play or two early in the game, letting other receivers keep the offense efficient in the middle quarters, and putting the final dagger in a win late in the fourth quarter.  He lulls defenses to sleep in this manner.  There isn't a corner in the league who can cover Evans for an entire game (when he's got competent quarterback play), so I fully expect Evans to make a big play or two in this one.  Advantage: Bills

Bills DT Marcus Stroud vs Cardinals C Lyle Sendlein and RG Deuce Lutui
cgolden - Lyle Sendlien got his first taste of a big, powerful defensive tackle last week when Kris Jenkins abused him a couple of times, and things won't get any easier when Marcus Stroud comes to town.  Stroud benefited from playing on a great defensive line in Jacksonville and he's got some pretty good defensive line mates in Buffalo as well with Aaron Schobel, Kyle Williams and Chris Kelsay. Stroud, like Jenkins, is strong enough to bull rush nearly any center or guard but also has the quickness and agility to be a decent pass rusher. Sendlien is a young guy who's still coming into his own and Lutui has been performing just well enough not to be benched. They'll have to double team Stroud most of the day but I still wouldn't be surprised to see him blow up a running play in the backfield and be in Warner's face a couple of times on Sunday.  Advantage: Bills

Yours Truly - Stroud's importance to this defense can't be measured just by his stats alone.  You have to take into account what Stroud has done for Kyle Williams as well; Buffalo's starting defensive tackles have combined for 28 tackles and 3 sacks in the team's first four games.  Stroud's a force against the run, and he's proven over and over this season that he can routinely beat the double team.  He's been impossible to block.  I don't expect Arizona to establish much of a run game on Sunday, but it would be nice to see Stroud collapse the pocket a handful of times around Kurt Warner, who is a fabulous rhythm passer.  Advantage: Bills

Cardinals OLB Travis LaBoy vs Bills OT Jason Peters
cgolden - This should be a strength on strength match-up and should be worth the price of admission. Oddly enough, these two guys have probably faced off before considering that LaBoy spent his first four seasons in Tennessee. LaBoy is the Cardinals best pass rusher and if Clancy Pendergast decides to be aggressive this week, he should be able to apply some pressure.  Jason Peters is the Bills' best offensive lineman and is one of the better left tackles in the league.  Since LaBoy will at times focus too much on rushing the passer, Peters should be able to handle him in the running game.  In passing situations, though, it'll be much more interesting.  LaBoy is a natural pass rusher and has the ability to get around almost any tackle in the league. He may not register a sack but I'd be surprised if he wasn't able to apply some pressure to Edwards a couple of times.  Advantage: Push

Yours Truly - Peters has been off his game since deciding to return from a prolonged pre-season holdout.  As such, he's only got about a month's worth of football under his belt this year, and with a new offensive coordinator and line coach, he's had some difficulty adjusting to what Buffalo does offensively.  He's been very streaky - looking awful at times and dominant at others - and he's currently dealing with an ankle sprain as well, hindering his footwork.  I fully expect LaBoy, who is very sudden in his pass-rushing, to make some plays on Sunday.  But Peters will have help, and he's still very adept at neutralizing the speed rush.  Advantage: Push

Cardinals WR Larry Fitzgerald vs Bills CB Jabari Greer
cgolden - Larry Fitzgerald has had a great year through four games and he's on pace for over 1,600 yards. His size and ability to snatch the ball out of the air at its highest point are second to none.  He'll have a four inch height and 40 pound weight advantage over Greer, so I wouldn't be surprised to see them test Greer early and often. Whatever the Cardinals' game plan ends up being, Greer shouldn't be underestimated though.  He's a slightly undersized corner back (5'11", 180) who is coming into his own and he plays much bigger than his stature would suggest. He's pretty good about getting his hands on a pass or two during a game and he sealed the Bills' victory over the Rams with a 33-yard pick six.  Overall, Greer's a solid corner but he'll need help because Fitzgerald is a special reciever.  Advantage: Cardinals

Yours Truly - Buffalo employs a Cover 2 shell on pass downs, so it's a virtual certainty that the Bills will have two guys on Fitzgerald at all times.  That number could balloon to 3 on occasion if Anquan Boldin doesn't play as expected.  Greer will get the Fitzgerald assignment most often, and I actually think that his aggressiveness and surprising reach match up better with Fitzgerald than most people believe.  But Fitzgerald is undeniable; he'll get his touches.  The Bills will be lucky if they can hold him to one score.  Advantage: Cardinals

***

Not much of a debate here.  We'd love to hear your thoughts on these matchups and on this exercise in the comments section.

Evans will be in Buffalo for foreseeable future (buffalobills.com)

Update: NFL Network's Adam Schefter is reporting that Lee Evans' contract extension with the Buffalo Bills is for four years, is worth $37.25 million, and includes $18.25 million in guarantees.  He'll be a Bill through the conclusion of the 2012 season.  End Update

The Buffalo Bills and star wide receiver Lee Evans have agreed to terms on a multi-year contract extension.  Terms of the extension have not yet been disclosed.

Evans himself has been hinting that his representation and Bills negotiators have been closing in on a deal for quite some time.  The deal, which many predicted would be finalized during the team's bye week, got done a bit early, and Evans is now a Bill for the foreseeable future.

Though Evans' production slipped dramatically from 2006 to 2007, a stabilizing quarterback position has quickly erased doubts about Evans' ability to be a go-to target in this league.  Through four games with Trent Edwards as the starting quarterback in 2008, Evans is averaging 23.7 yards per catch and is playing at a Pro Bowl level.  The extension ensures that the Edwards-to-Evans connection has a chance to be a potent one in Buffalo for much longer than the end of the '08 season.

People tend to underestimate Evans' value to the team; few realize that in the past two seasons (20 games), the Bills are 11-0 when Evans accrues 50 receiving yards, and 0-9 when he doesn't.  If that doesn't scream "sign this guy!", I don't know what does; the Bills happily obliged.

Evans, who until today was working on his rookie deal, was technically signed through the 2009 season, but under the terms of said contract, he could void the final year of the deal.  Thus, he would have made himself an unrestricted free agent after this regular season.  That's no longer a concern for the Bills or for Evans.

This is great news, Bills fans.  Rejoice in the comments section.

There's plenty to be excited about in Buffalo with the Buffalo Bills off to a 4-0 start for the first time since 1992.  Yet despite four straight wins to open the 2008 regular season, Bills fans seem increasingly negative about the team's play, specifically in the last two weeks.  I'm here to quell some of that pessimism - because what I saw in tape in reviewing the Bills' 31-14 victory over the Rams was quite encouraging.  The tape never lies.

For the third time in four games, the Bills started off slowly offensively.  The penalties, missed assignments and general first-half woes that our (still very young) offense has displayed are the most-referenced low points when Bills fans are staying cautious about the team's prospects.  Caution is a great thing to have - in fact, caution is the preferable route at this point when laying out expectations for this team - but we're a lot closer to having a great game offensively than many realize.

Miscues and brand new schemes
Much of the early-game lack of success that the Bills have displayed stems from what defenses are doing.  The Rams - who got absolutely blitzed by the Eagles, Giants and Seahawks in their first three games - came out and did a lot of overloading and stunting in their blitz packages defensively, something they hadn't done in their first three losses.  The result was some blown assignments in pass protection, which was largely responsible for the Bills' offensive woes early in this particular game.

The other culprit?  Mistakes - and those likely stemmed from a couple of factors.  First, I thought that offensive coordinator Turk Schonert was a bit too urgent in this game.  The Bills didn't really try to establish their rushing game - not until the third quarter, at least - and most of the passes they threw were throws down the field.  That's uncharacteristic of a Schonert offense (at least the one we've seen to date), and it kept the Bills in several third-and-unmanageable situations.  Stemming from that sense of urgency on Schonert's part was offensive personnel that seemed to be pushing - in fact, borderline desperate - as well.  That led to some of the penalties (though the early holding call on Jason Peters, which negated a long Marshawn Lynch run, was, in fact, garbage).

Buffalo needs to tighten up the screws early in the game, there's no doubt about it.  They're seeing exotic looks and they're shooting themselves in the foot.  They're going to have to deal with the looks, because those will keep coming.  If they eliminate the mistakes, however, and remain true to their offensive identity, they can be much more effective in the first half.  In particular, they need to deal with the early blitz better, because Trent Edwards took too many big hits in this one.  Better play-calling will take care of it.

Blocking scheme changes
While the Bills were struggling to run the ball in the first half, the team spent a lot of time running in-tackle, and Peters pulled to the right on a lot of those plays.  The results, as you all are aware, were less than impressive - though if there aren't two penalties negating long runs (I said the Peters hold was garbage, which it was, but the trip on Melvin Fowler was a good call), we're not complaining about Buffalo's rushing effort in this game.

Buffalo clearly made a concerted effort to re-establish their running game in the third quarter, and they did it with a slightly adjusted blocking scheme.  They mixed in plenty of off-tackle runs, which led to some of Marshawn Lynch's longer runs of the game.  Fred Jackson had success off the edge as well.  Rather than pulling Peters in the second half, it was Langston Walker doing most of the pulling.  Man, is it fun to watch that guy sprint full-out.  Walker wasn't laying a lot of lumber on these plays, but a man that size doesn't have to - he creates space because he's so big.  The Bills' diversity in their run game play-calling, with a dash of determination, was what led to success - and it's what created a hole straight up the middle for Jackson on his first career touchdown rush.

Lee Evans: key to Buffalo's offense
The Bills did a smart thing getting Lee Evans involved early - his 49-yard reception on the first play of the game was a thing of beauty - but they need to find ways to spread his production out through an entire game.  Evans' second and final reception came in the fourth quarter, the 39-yard touchdown grab that put the game on ice.  He needs to be more of a factor in the middle quarters; I'm confident he would have been had Edwards had more time to throw.

Some fun stats for any stragglers out there who think Evans doesn't deserve a lucrative contract extension from the Bills: over two seasons, Trent Edwards is 9-4 as an NFL starting quarterback.  In those thirteen games, Evans has had at least 50 receiving yards nine times - all wins.  He's had less than 50 receiving yards four times - all losses.  Take that further - in the 20 games the Bills have played since the start of the 2007 season, Evans has notched at least 50 receiving yards in 11 of those games.  That's right, folks - over the past two years, the Bills are 11-0 in games where Evans nabs 50 receiving yards, and 0-9 when he doesn't.  Getting him involved is quite obviously the key to success for Buffalo's offense, and it's a pretty inarguable point.

Reviews of the defense and special teams are coming your way later today.  Stay tuned...

Greer, Bills eke out another fourth quarter W (Associated Press)

For the second straight week, it wasn't exactly how the Buffalo Bills drew it up.  Trailing 14-6 at halftime and by a point entering the fourth quarter, Buffalo kicked it into cardiac gear once again, scoring 18 points in the final stanza in a 31-14 victory over the St. Louis Rams.

Running back Fred Jackson and cornerback Jabari Greer notched their first career touchdowns as professionals to vault Buffalo to the lead, and Lee Evans hauled in a 39-yard touchdown pass and a two-point conversion from Trent Edwards to ice the game for the Bills.  The final score, however, masks what was another sloppy performance by the Bills, particularly offensively.

Offense struggles early... again
The Bills kicked just two field goals in the first half, trailing by eight points after several mistakes and bad penalties.  Edwards was sacked four times in the game - all in the first half - and threw an interception in what was his weakest performance to date.  Jason Peters was flagged twice (the team themselves were flagged five teams, a season high), highlighting a poor performance by the offensive line.  Edwards completed 15 of 25 passes for 197 yards with a score and a pick, good enough for a QB rating of 81.6 (dropping his rating to 93.5 on the season).

Buffalo's running game also struggled to get going, with penalties on Peters and Melvin Fowler negating two long Lynch runs in the first half.  As a unit, however, Buffalo was much more effective in the second half, and the combination of Marshawn Lynch and Fred Jackson had their most productive game to date, combining for 103 yards on 26 carries.  A 22-yard score by Jackson in the third quarter cut the lead to 14-13.

This was the Bills' third performance in which the offense got off to a shaky start this season; they've made up for it, however, with 38 points in the fourth quarter in their last three victories.

Defense tightens up the screws, too
Buffalo had its poorest outing of the season defensively, giving up several big plays on the day - especially to all-world running back Steven Jackson, who scored on a 29-yard run and amassed 188 total yards on the day.  Despite the big plays, Buffalo's defense did what it needed to do to keep the game close enough to win in the fourth quarter.

The Bills lost cornerback Terrence McGee to a sprained right knee on the day, but still played well against the pass.  It was Greer's 33-yard interception return that gave the Bills the lead for good.  The Bills were also without DT Marcus Stroud (shoulder) for a time, but the big defensive tackle returned to action and played without hindrance.

The team's third-down defense was once again stingy, holding the Rams to just a 23% conversion rate on the day (3/13).  Rams quarterback Trent Green was sacked twice and the Bills forced two turnovers to slow down the Rams' attack just when the team needed it; at one point in the fourth quarter, Jackson had three rushing yards in the second half.  In fact, the Bills held Jackson to just 11 yards rushing in the final two quarters of play.

Game Balls
Oh, heck - we'll go with four game balls for the Bills' fourth straight win...

Fred Jackson: Teams can keep keying on Marshawn Lynch all they want, because Jackson can make them pay.  He carried 7 times for 46 yards today and notched his first career touchdown.  Also caught three passes.

Paul Posluszny: He's still proving to be the team's best player on what is, mostly, a no-name defense.  He made a lot of big tackles (he led the team with 8) on Jackson, and made some big hits while blitzing.  Love watching this guy play.

Jabari Greer: The pressure was on when McGee went out with his knee, and Greer responded in a big way.  His pick-six sealed the win, and his coverage was once again excellent.

Trent Edwards: No, it wasn't his best performance.  No, it wasn't the offense's best performance.  But Edwards deserves a ton of credit, once again, for his composure - and for taking hits.  He kept getting up, just like his team.  Kid's a leader.

Game thread(s) Roll Call
Props to norcaliangelsfan for pacing the open threads with 181 comments on a record day at Rumblings - 34 users combined for 1,166 comments.  Good on you, folks.  Thanks to the following folks for joining me in today's open threads:

StuckInNJ, karovda, norcaliangelsfan, BuffCrunch, Cinga, thefourwinds, twoeightnine, billsstein, BillsFan119, BeastMode, WABillsfan, NJBillsfan, Ron From NM, BILLS, Joe P., sireric, TheSharp, silverstreak3k, Memphisbillsfan, D.O., chaosthepitbull, Crizal, LuBAR, fletcherjd, south123, Sky Kalkman, sly, geno227, BillsNorth, jdol1568, the Skycap, Zumone, Hassanali181

     
Buffalo Bills (3-0) at St. Louis Rams (0-3)
SB Nation's Rams coverage: Turf Show Times

The 3-0 Buffalo Bills face a major gut check as they strive for a 4-0 start for the first time since 1992.  They invade St. Louis hoping to drop the Rams to their fourth straight loss to start the season.  The Bills haven't won in St. Louis since their first visit to the Edward Jones Dome in 1995.  Below are my keys to a Bills victory and a great start to the season:

Start fast, play inspired:  We are an 8 point favorite and should win this game.  The best way to put away teams that aren't as good as you is to do it early.  We saw how an 'inferior' team can stay in the game last week; there's no reason to let that happen again this week. 

Stop the Steve-o: With good old Trent Green joining the starting lineup, I think it's pretty obvious the Rams need to really integrate Steven Jackson into the offense.  He is by far their best player, so it'll be no surprise if they pretty much run him into the ground.

Get after the other Trent:  I fear for Trent Green's safety, but our defense shouldn't.  Green has obviously been cleared for contact and should be ready for a big pass rush.  Let's give it to him.  The Rams' O-Line has been awful this year, and that is being nice.  We need to blitz early and often, and make Green as uncomfortable as possible, if he isn't already.  I'm expecting 4 sacks or more and will be disappointed if we don't hit that.

Turnovers, as in "get some":  I, for one, was fully expecting a big season turnover-wise out of our defense.  That hasn't exactly happened yet, but there will be plenty of opportunities this week.  A Rams team that has been outscored by 29 points per game has actually only turned it over 3 times.  It'd be nice to add to that number and finally get our defense going in that category.  We've been pretty excellent in all areas except for turnovers thus far.

Run it like the rest: The Rams are allowing 184 yards per game on the ground, so it's pretty obvious that they are weak in that area (like most areas).  After three mediocre rushing performances, this needs to be the week the Bills offense and Marshawn Lynch step it up and dominate on the ground.  The Rams' D is there for abusing, so it's time for our OL to take over a game.  If we can't run it this week, I'm afraid of how we'll run it the rest of the season.

Attack deep: This is one key to pull from last week.  Again, I feel it's absolutely necessary to try the Rams deep. They are about as bad as it gets in the secondary, and we really need to attack that.  I've mentioned in the past how important it is for our offense to get Lee Evans involved early.  Last week was a nice example.  We didn't get the ball to Lee that much until the fourth quarter and our offensive production suffered, in part, because of that.  Like most teams, it's extremely important to the offense's success to get the top WR involved.  This week is as good as any week to throw it deep early and often.  Evans should have opportunities to literally embarrass the Rams' "starting" corners.

Impose our will: Like I mentioned before, we are the superior team, we just have to show it.  With Scott Linehan likely to be fired if we win, there's no reason we should let this be a close game.  There has been a lot of turmoil surrounding the Rams this week, and we need to play off of that.  It is important for us to dictate the tempo as we did against Seattle and at times against Jacksonville.  This week is a good time to really prove what kind of team we are.

Make Special Team special again:  Last week we were pretty awful in this phase, while we were rather mediocre the prior week.  After a phenomenal performance in Week 1, the unit's play has slipped.  With Roscoe out for the next month or so, we need other guys (Leodis and friends) to step up and prove their worth. Specifically, the coverage units really need to step up and limit the big returns.  This has been an issue the past two weeks, and this week we'll need to hold the semi-still-dangerous Dante Hall in check.  Time for Bobby April to whip his boys back into shape.

Don't be that guy: Everybody hates 'that guy', so let's not be him.  The Rams are a team that is about as weak as they come and we are rather solid in all three phases.  Under Dick Jauron the Bills have lost one game against a team that finished the season with a worse record that us (Detroit 2006).  It's obvious that he has the team ready for the teams the Bills are supposed to beat.  The Rams game should be no different and they should play it that way.  Like they have in the past, there's no reason to be looking past this week's opponent. Jauron's teams have done a solid job beating the teams they should beat; let's not see something different this time.

***

The Bills are 3-0 and looking good.  The Rams are 0-3 and have looked about as bad as physically possible.  On paper the Bills should easily take care of business.  However, as this is the NFL, anything is possible.  The Bills need to stay focused and ready as every road game is a challenge.  Go Bills, and let's make it 4-0!!!

Stay tuned to Buffalo Rumblings and today's Open Game Thread for a "live chat" during today's big game!