McKelvin becoming a factor in stretch run (buffalobills.com)

Ten weeks into his rookie season, fans and "experts" - the most notable "expert" being the ever-delightful Jerry Sullivan of The Buffalo News - had inexplicably already pulled out the term "bust" when discussing Buffalo Bills rookie cornerback Leodis McKelvin. Ten weeks into his rookie season, there was reason to be disappointed with the rookie, however. McKelvin had made little impact defensively, given up plenty of big plays, and had been rather pedestrian as a kick returner. Still, to term any rookie a "bust" after nine games is a bit ridiculous.

To say that McKelvin has exploded onto the scene over the past two weeks is an understatement.

It started on Monday Night Football against the Cleveland Browns, when McKelvin - filling in for an injured Jabari Greer in the second half - shut down dangerous Browns WR Donte' Stallworth. His 98-yard kickoff return for a score kept the Bills in that game, despite the fact that after four offensive turnovers, they had no business being alive in the first place.

Then came yesterday's break-out performance at Kansas City. McKelvin intercepted the first two passes of his career, returning the first one for a 64-yard touchdown to give the Bills the lead for good. He was also explosive once again in the return game, returning the opening kickoff of the second half 46 yards to set up Trent Edwards' second rushing TD and a 37-17 Bills lead.

That's not to say the kid's been perfect. His coverage has improved tremendously, but his technique is still lacking to the point that he can get turned around on occasion and give up big plays. His run support is not great, either - the kid tackles well, but he routinely takes bad angles and has trouble shedding blocks. He was engulfed on several long Larry Johnson runs yesterday when he was responsible for contain.

But he's still a rookie. When you're playing with any rookie in this league, you take the good with the bad. For McKelvin the past two weeks, the explosive good has outweighed the bad by several miles.

Said McKelvin after yesterday's stellar performance in KC:

"It felt great. It felt like I was in college, where my first pick went for a touchdown. I'm just out there trying to do my job. Basically what they tell me in practice is mind your own business, do your own job and things will come your way. I've been working very hard in practice and it's starting to pay off."

Head coach Dick Jauron piled on:

"We're obviously thrilled with the way he played today and the way he's come along."

It's not exactly necessary to point out that "experts" like Sullivan who called McKelvin out earlier in the season are eating their words this morning. Bills fans have been spoiled a bit with the solid rookie contributions of players like Donte Whitner, Edwards, Marshawn Lynch and several others during Jauron's tenure as this team's coach. Maybe the Bills were at a point where they didn't need a rookie to perform immediately, maybe not; either way, what's forgotten is the fact that making the leap from tiny Troy to the NFL isn't exactly easy. DeMarcus Ware did it in Dallas, but not even Giants star Osi Umenyiora was an instant-impact guy as a second-round pick (he registered just one sack as a rookie). When you draft a small-school guy - and for its growing reputation, Troy is undoubtedly small - development takes time. Leo is still developing.

But it's time to toss the "bust" label to the wayside.  McKelvin has arrived, and once he learns consistency, he should very quickly assert himself as one of the very best corners in this league.

Jackson's pay far below his value (buffalobills.com)

After a 4-0 start, the Buffalo Bills have lost 4 of 5 games, are cellar-dwellers in the AFC East, and once again face an uphill climb toward the post-season.

There.  Got my negativity out of the way today.  Not that y'all needed reminding, but that's where we stand with Monday Night Football looming.

Instead of harping on all of the team's problems, which I've done to the point of gut ulcer over the past two days, I'd like to focus on the (very few) positives surrounding this team right now.  Alas, as with so many years prior to this, the only way to do that is to look a bit further forward than I'd like to.  I'm doing it anyways.  It's hump day - and I can't take another day of Bills bashing, at least from my mouth.

So consider this an open thread to discuss the question posed in the headline: which current Bills players deserve contract extensions?  Anyone is game, all opinions are valued.  Before I let y'all get to it, however, I'd like to put out a couple of (obvious) names to get the discussion rolling...

CB Jabari Greer (2009 UFA; current salary: $950,000; age: 26)
- Greer has been Buffalo's second most valuable defensive back over the past two seasons.  Donte Whitner gets a slight edge, and that's only due to the fact that Mr. Whitner can play wherever he's lined up.  Greer is a play-maker.  He's the glue that's held this secondary together for two seasons, as the team has dealt with injuries to [insert any DB's name here].

Jabari is never going to be a Champ Bailey.  But he plays hard, he tackles surprisingly well, and he's spilled blood and guts for this organization ever since he was brought in as an undrafted free agent in 2004.  At the age of 26, Greer is in his prime, and has the look of a long-term starter in this league.  Buffalo would be very wise to lock him up prior to the end of this season.

RB Fred Jackson (2009 ERFA; current salary: $370,000; age: 27)
- As an Exclusive Rights free agent, the Bills have a lot of negotiating power when it comes to Jackson; he's not going anywhere.  He's not a guy who would hold out, either.  But he deserves to be paid more than he currently is, because his versatility makes him an incredibly valuable asset to this team.  From his role as Marshawn Lynch's change-of-pace to his value as a reserve return man on special teams, Jackson has the ability to do whatever his coaches ask of him - and they do ask.

At 27 years of age, Jackson isn't exactly a young gun.  Due to his strange, winding trip to the NFL, however, he doesn't have a lot of mileage on him, and he will help prolong the career of Lynch (if the Bills fix the O-Line, that is).  Jackson works well with Marshawn.  He's got a good rapport with the quarterback.  He needs to be a bigger part of the team's long-term plans; he needs a longer-term contract first.

***

These are the only two names on my list; suffice it to say, however, that many of you are a bit less conservative than me when it comes to pretending to spend Ralph Wilson's money.  Feel free to talk about Greer/Jackson's worthiness for extensions, add any names to the list, or rip gigantic babies who think they should be on the list (do I really need to type the name?).

Can Cassel get the ball deep to Moss? (boston.com)

The New England Patriots are set to host the Buffalo Bills on Sunday in what can easily be considered the most relevant game the teams have played with one another in quite some time.  The two teams are among three tied for the division lead in the AFC East - a division in which all four teams are separated by just one game.  New England is 1-1 in the division (with a road win over the Jets), while the Bills are 0-2.  Both teams have lost to the Dolphins.  Needless to say, both teams are eager to turn around their in-division woes.

Both teams are dealing with injuries, which makes the game even more competitive, if a bit diluted.  Naturally, however, several key matchups - and which teams can control them - will play a large role in determining Sunday's winner.  Pats Pulpit and Buffalo Rumblings recently collaborated about three such matchups; here's how each matchup was broken down by Pats and Bills fans:

MATCHUP ONE: Patriots WR Randy Moss vs Bills CB Jabari Greer
MaPatsFan, Pats Pulpit: Jabari Greer has had a good start to 2008.  With 28 solo tackles, he's well on his way to beating his 2007 total of 41.  Oh, let's not forget the 2 interceptions and TDs!  The interception and score against New York was highlight reel worthy, for sure.  On the NE side, Moss has struggled a bit, but most of that is by design.  QB Matt Cassel has yet to develop the long ball with Moss and they're turning him inside where he's not comfortable.  Hence, we haven't seen a lot of production.  Against Indy, his job was decoy, keeping S Bob Sanders out of the box most of the game.  The key to winning this matchup?  Greer is 5-11 and Moss is 6-4.  It doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure this one out - throw the ball over Greer's head!  Advantage: Patriots

Brian Galliford, Buffalo Rumblings: To be honest, I'm not concerned about Moss in this one.  Yes, he's quite clearly still capable of making huge plays, and the Pats will undoubtedly target him early in this one as they attempt to get out to an early lead.  I'm just not especially enthralled with the playing preferences of Matt Cassel.  The Bills need to weather that early storm; if they do, this Greer vs Moss matchup becomes much more about the run than the pass.  New England is going to run the football; Moss can hardly be considered an effort blocker.  He'll decoy a lot, as MaPatsFan alluded to, so Buffalo's corners - Greer in particular, but also Terrence McGee - will need to pitch in to stop the run.  If they don't, it'll open the passing game up for Randy and company.  Advantage: Push

MATCHUP TWO: Bills C Duke Preston vs Patriots NT Vince Wilfork
Brian Galliford, Buffalo Rumblings: Ugh.  This one is going to be ugly.  I consider Vince Wilfork a better player than the Jets' Kris Jenkins, and Jenkins absolutely destroyed the interior of Buffalo's offensive line last week.  What's more, New England's defense is designed to funnel run plays toward Wilfork.  Preston doesn't stand a chance against him, and I'm not particularly confident that Wilfork can be contained even if he's triple-teamed.  Advantage: Patriots

MaPatsFan, Pats Pulpit: Both Preston and Wilfork are young and large, pushing 325 pounds, but Preston has a height advantage at 6-5 to Wilfork's 6-2.  If Wilfork is to win this battle, he needs to get under Preston and use Duke's extra three inches to stand him up.  Running a 3-4 most of the time, that's what the Pats demand of their front defensive 3 - jam the line.  This'll be cool to watch, because the only C I've seen Vince have trouble with is Indy's Jeff Saturday.  Battle in the pigpile; this oughta be fun.  Advantage: Patriots

MATCHUP THREE: Patriots RB Kevin Faulk vs Bills MLB Paul Posluszny
MaPatsFan, Pats Pulpit: Paul is sitting 23rd overall for total tackles; not too shabby for a young mike who missed a lot of 2007 with a broken arm.  Did I mention he's right behind New England's rookie ILB Jerod Mayo?  Just thought I'd letcha know.  I think this will be interesting because the Pats have been using rookie RB BenJarvus Green-Ellis quite a bit and he's doing very well.  My sense is they'll let BenJarvus take the lumps and then bring Faulk in for the third down conversions, similar to his role of past years.  Green-Ellis has been coming along nicely which frees Faulk up for those conversions and options.  If Posluszny isn't smart, he'll get burned by Faulk who does everything from running to receiving to blocking; he's an everything guy who's hard to keep track of.  Advantage: Patriots

Brian Galliford, Buffalo Rumblings: Faulk is one of those guys that's both easy to respect and easy to hate just because of the player he is.  MaPatsFan has this one right; Faulk will be protected by Green-Ellis until he's needed, and he's hurt the Bills in the past playing this exact role.  He's never faced Posluszny, however; Paul has proven to be one of the best open-field tacklers I've ever seen.  He kept San Diego's Darren Sproles and New York's Leon Washington largely under wraps, and they play similar roles to Faulk's in New England.  I don't think Faulk is going to be particularly effective Sunday, though I do expect the Patriots to run well enough to keep themselves balanced.  Advantage: Bills

***

Agree? Disagree? Have a matchup of your own that you'd like to toss into this conversation?  Let's talk Bills and Patriots, with matchups the focus.  This is going to be a fun game.

Today is supposed to be film study day; I realize that.  But I spent Sunday afternoon and all of Monday wallowing, and I don't like to wallow.  So instead of starting off Tuesday morning with another bash session of the Buffalo Bills, I thought it'd be nice to take a look back at the first half of the 2008 season and hand out some awards.  At least there's some optimism here.  We'll get to the depressing stuff later.

Team MVP: Lee Evans
- I know, I know - this team is nothing without Trent Edwards, even if he has been playing poorly of late.  That's the easy pick, though.  I shudder to think about Buffalo's passing offense - no, wait, just the offense in general - without Lee Evans, however.  Evans is on pace to have a career year yardage-wise, and he's still averaging just under 20 yards per reception on the season.  Evans has emerged as a consistent threat, and I submit that no one - not even Edwards - is more important to this team's success this season.

Offensive Player of the Half: Marshawn Lynch
- This award almost went to Edwards as well, but nobody deserves more kudos than RB Marshawn Lynch.  Despite some of the worst run blocking the NFL has seen this year, Lynch has still scored six times - good for a tie for fourth amongst running backs this season - and continues to be the engine that drives Buffalo's offense.  He's also caught 27 passes this season, good for second on the team behind Evans' 35.  Despite having no help whatsoever in the blocking department, Lynch is still making plays.

Defensive Player of the Half: Jabari Greer
- No player has been more consistent defensively than Greer.  He's tied for the team lead with 2 interceptions; he's returned both of those picks for scores.  He also ranks fourth on the team with 34 tackles.  He's a small guy, but he's also Buffalo's most physical and aggressive defensive back.  He has limitations, but he consistently overcomes them.  What a pleasant surprise this guy has been for the past two seasons.  Give him a contract extension, Buffalo.

Specialist of the Half: Roscoe Parrish
- Few players in the league generate the buzz that Parrish does when he hits the field for a punt return.  His average is just 13.2 yards per return, a disappointment for him, but he's also been the lone playmaker for Buffalo's special teams unit.  Buffalo's defense needs to start making some stops so Parrish gets a few more opportunities.

Rookie of the Half: Derek Fine
- Not a whole lot to pick from here, as Buffalo's rookie class has been disappointing in plenty of ways.  Fine has only played in the past two games, and he's already equaled James Hardy's touchdown total on the season.  In fact, his four receptions are just three less than Hardy's 7 on the season.  This is more an indictment of Buffalo's high draft picks than anything else, I realize, but the Bills may have found something in Fine.  He's been solid on kick coverage to boot, as expected.

Unsung Hero of the Half: Paul Posluszny
- Poz has 17 more tackles than any other Bills defender this season.  He's been outstanding against the run, and though he has yet to register a sack, his blitzes have been among Buffalo's most effective in creating mayhem (he had pressures on each of Greer's interception-touchdowns, for instance).  Yet few talk about him; it's always Stroud, Mitchell or Whitner.  Poz has been outstanding, folks - he's one of the most technically sound players on the entire team.

Best Individual Performance: Marcus Stroud vs Seattle
- Where has Week 1 Marcus Stroud gone?  Stroud absolutely shredded Seattle in Week 1 to the tune of 7 tackles and 2 sacks in what, sadly, remains Buffalo's most complete performance to date.  Stroud was an absolute monster in that game, spearheading a defensive effort that included 5 total sacks and 2 forced turnovers.  Since that point, Stroud has picked up just 15 more tackles, however.  We need Week 1 Marcus back.

Play of the Half: Roscoe Parrish TD vs Seattle
- Lee Evans' one-handed helmet grab against San Diego was pretty sweet, as was Kawika Mitchell's interception off of Philip Rivers in Week 7.  Parrish, however, gets the award for his phenomenal punt return for a score in the Week 1 win over Seattle.  This is, quite simply, one of the best individual plays I've ever seen.  Roscoe Parrish rules.  Watch Roscoe's Return

Lindell's reaction sums up Bills' slide (Associated Press)

Say it with me, kids: "Pretenders."

After a 4-0 start to the season, the Buffalo Bills have now dropped three of four - including two straight division games - to fall to 5-3.  The latest disappointment?  Sunday's 26-17 loss to the New York Jets.

Just two weeks ago, the Bills were 5-1 atop the division and considered the front-runners in a diluted - yet still highly competitive - AFC East.  Now they're 5-3, two games in the hole against their three biggest rivals, and are proving to have far more "pretender" than "contender" in them.  The kicker: they're doing it to themselves.

Sloppy play + no run game = ...
Let's get this out there straight away: the Bills did a lot of good things offensively today.  It didn't matter.  Three more turnovers, five more sacks of Trent Edwards and a turnover on downs deep in Jets territory led to just 10 offensive points despite the fact that the Bills were 8 of 13 on third downs and were able to make some plays through the air.

The biggest problem for Buffalo offensively - get ready for a shocker here - is that they're putting too much onto the shoulders of Edwards.  Second-year quarterbacks shouldn't face the burden that Edwards has during the past handful of games; sans any form of a rushing attack, Edwards has been forced to carry the team - and like any second-year quarterback, he's had his good moments and, unfortunately, more bad moments.  Simply put, if Buffalo can't find a way to run the football effectively, we're going to continue to see this type of offensive attack - effective statistically, but not when it really matters.

Can we dispense with the "Duke Preston should start at center" talk?  The young center was absolutely man-handled by Jets NT Kris Jenkins today to the tune of 5 tackles, 2 sacks and plenty of time spent on his (Preston's) rotund backside.  Jenkins also completely eradicated Buffalo's "running game"; Marshawn Lynch and Fred Jackson combined for a pitiful 31 yards on 16 carries.

Not even Favre can hand Buffalo a 'W'
Brett Favre did his best in the fourth quarter to keep the Bills alive; that's what he's done best this season, after all.  A Jabari Greer interception (extend him!) on a patented Favre duck was returned 42 yards for a score, cutting the Jets lead to 23-17 with 10 minutes to play.  The Bills defense then responded by allowing the Jets to take nearly 9 of those minutes off of the clock, surrendering the decisive field goal in the process.

Buffalo has got to find a way to get their opponents' offensive attacks out of rhythm, and they need to do it three weeks ago.  For two straight weeks, the Dolphins and Jets have methodically picked apart the Bills, eradicating the Aaron Schobel-less pass rush and sapping the Bills' energy and momentum in the process.  I don't care how it's done.  Something needs to change in that respect, because when the offense is in rhythm, the Bills can't make plays defensively.  It's as simple as that.

What do these two losses mean?  I'm struggling to find the broad perspective tonight, so I'll keep this to a personal level: for 8 weeks, including last week in Miami, I was a believer.  I believed Edwards could lead this team back from these types of deficits.  I believed our coaching staff could get this team to play inspired football.  I believed that this team, though young, was smart enough to learn from its mistakes.  But I'm not seeing Edwards do what we know he can do - and it's because he's not ready to carry the entire team on his shoulders.  I'm not seeing the coaching staff make smart decisions, both situationally as well as with personnel.  I'm seeing the team make the same mistakes week in and week out - turnovers, penalties, poor run blocking, etc.  Am I still a believer?  Not one bit.  There's a chance that this Bills team can still make the playoffs - heck, there's even a chance they could take the division.  I'll believe it when I see it.

Game Balls
Don't make me laugh.

Roll Call
Thanks to the 26 folks who stopped by today's game thread.  Kudos to Kurupt for once again holding down the fort during a home game; he also paced the day with 94 comments.  Joe P and D.O. each surpassed 50 as well.

geno227, Kurupt, silverstreak3k, Scoe221, StuckInNJ, NJBillsfan, BuffCrunch, Cinga, Joe P., D.O., fletcherjd, RabidBuffalo, Hopefulcynic, BearsNecessity, thefourwinds, The Buffalonian, Ron From NM, jdol1568, chaosthepitbull, GhostDogg47, BillsNorth, garycoleman69, killascript, roscoe11, keuka121, LeClaireBill

Here comes Foxboro.  Yeah.  "Crap" is right.

   
Buffalo Bills (5-2) vs New York Jets (4-3)
Sunday, November 2 - 1:00 PM EST

Another week, another tough division battle.  After blowing a golden opportunity to really control the division last week in Miami, our Bills get a chance to get in the divisional win column against the Jets inside the raucous Ralph.  This is a crucial game in the context of the rest of the season; here are the keys to a big Bills win:

Get it going early: A fast start is something we're all hoping for, and Turk Schonert is striving for.  The play calling needs to be a tad bit more unpredictable.  The Jets are tough to run on (only 82.6 ypg), so being able to throw early will really give us a good chance to put some points on the board in the first half.  However, we can't simply abandon the run, as the Miami game may suggest, but instead vary up the run calls.  Enough with the numerous dives up the middle Turk, especially this week with big, fat Kris Jenkins and the force field that surrounds him taking on Duke Preston.  We had success against Miami off tackle and outside, two places we've been asking for more runs all season.  The Jets run the 3-4 just like Miami, so running outside away from Jenkins will be the way to get it done on the ground.  Marshawn Lynch has had very few opportunities to run to the outside this year, but every time he does, he makes something happen.  Why is this not a staple in the Offense?  Also, don't be surprised to see some more no-huddle.

Force the action defensively: Going up against Brett Favre and the gunslinger mentality, this is the perfect week to implement a ton of press coverage on the Jets' wideouts.  Favre absolutely LOVES throwing misguided passes into tight double coverage, so getting up on Laveranues Coles, Jerricho Cotchery and Chansi Stuckey will really increase the chances of getting some turnovers.  If Fewell plays Jabari Greer, Terrence McGee and Ashton Youboty 10 yards off the ball again, Favre will feast on the quick slant this week.  If teams like the Chiefs, Raiders and Bengals can play Favre tough, there's absolutely no reason we shouldn't be able to shut the Jets passing game down.  But if we sit back and wait for him to make the mistakes, we will be in for a long afternoon.  By the way, is there a better WR first name trio than Laveranues, Jerricho and Chansi in the NFL? I think not.

Win the turnover battle: Currently, the Bills turnover margin is sitting at -3, which is #23 in the NFL.  Our 2 losses have produced a whopping -7 margin (8 giveaways, just 1 takeaway), though it is debatable whether those turnovers cost us those games as 7 of them came when we were already losing.  They have obviously cost us chances to mount comebacks, but it's tough to say whether they are reasons we lost against Arizona and Miami.  Either way, the offense has to take better control of the ball, while our defense needs to step up and start forcing some turnovers.  We've only accumulated 4 ineterceptions on the season, with one coming in the last minute against Seattle.  That just isn't good, and there's no better time to pick off a few passes than when Brett Favre rolls into town.  This is one area that should really decide Sunday's winner.

Pressure Fav-ruh: Piggybacking the turnover idea, it's important to get into Favre's face and force him to throw when he's not ready.  Again, if he has time to throw and space to put it, he'll hurt us.  Getting after him with some blitzes will lead to his patented crazy throws, which should again increase the chance for turnovers.  I'm not afraid of Coles and Cotchery beating us deep, so we've got to get up on them and make Favre squeeze the passes in there quickly.  I'm not confident that this will be part of the game plan though.

Make Special Teams special again:  This has been an overlooked area of the team this year.  Quite frankly, the ST units have not lived up to their lofty expectations this year.  They have been solid, but other than the Seattle game, have been very unspectacular.  Kick coverage has been up and down, the punting unit has been mostly good but there have been mistakes (see snap last week) and the kick return team has been borderline bad.  Leodis McKelvin just doesn't look like a good kick returner out there.  He heads directly to the sideline EVERY time and rarely shows the propensity to cut back.  Maybe Bobby April is instructing him to take what he can for now, until he gets more comfortable, but this unit has been far from explosive this year.  McKelvin's instincts just haven't seemed to be there, we shall see what he develops into in the return game.  This week would be a great time for a big play.  Controlling Leon Washington in the return game is going to be another tough job for the Bills ST's this week.

Involve Evans early and often: Here's your weekly "get the ball to Lee Evans early in the game" key.  With Josh Reed out, it's going to be as important as ever to get Evans involved early.  Look for the Jets to really roll coverage to him this week, so Roscoe Parrish and James Hardy will need to step up. Roscoe wants the ball more, now is the time for him to take advantage of the opportunity.

Protect the home turf:  To be honest, this is a game the Bills shouldn't lose, and probably can't afford to lose.  Starting 0-2 in the division and heading to New England is NOT what the team needs come Monday morning.  Like I thought the Chargers game might be, this game is a season definer, one that sets the stage for the rest of the year.  A loss here with a tough game at New England next week is really not the downward spiral I want to see occur.  If we win this week, to finish the first half 6-2, we will be in great shape going forward, but another divisional loss, at home no less, would really put a damper on where this team might be headed.  Luckily, the rest of the AFC is a jumbled mess, but it'd be nice to rise above that quagmire.  I'd much rather head to New England next week with 6 wins and at worse, a share of the divisional lead with them.  I don't want to be a game back or in a 3 way tie including the Jets at 5-3.  Rise up Buffalo, it's time you win a big game against a team with a winning record for once!

***

Let's go Bills, dispose of the New York Bretts!  Make my daily life in NYC merrier!

So the Buffalo Bills didn't squish the fish, losing to the Miami Dolphins 25-16 this past weekend.  We know how inept the offense was in the fourth quarter.  We know that the defense struggled, particularly in stopping Ted Ginn.  (Typing that still makes me sick to my stomach.)  We know that while losing, every other AFC East team won over the weekend.  Plain and simple, it wasn't a good weekend to be a Bills fan.

After agonizing about the loss for two days and re-watching the tape, however, there were some solid individual performances that deserve to be mentioned.  Never hurts to talk about bright spots, right?

Marshawn Lynch and Fred Jackson: It's hardly a surprise, but Buffalo's potent one-two running back punch performed quite well.  Sure, Jackson got stuffed three times at Miami's goal line early in the game, but when they got opportunities, they made the most of them.  The running game in general was much better than usual; in fact, Lynch and Jackson actually had some holes to run through in this one.  Lynch is a monster - there's no excuse for him only logging 13 carries.  Miami wasn't stopping him on the ground or through the air (though he stopped himself twice in the latter department).  Our runners looked great.

Lee Evans: Over the past two games, Evans has 15 grabs.  He hasn't been this productive since a four-game, 32-catch stretch in the 2006 season.  Miami did a good job shutting down Buffalo's short passing game on Sunday, yet Evans still hauled in 7 passes for 116 yards.  Perhaps this offense has reached a point where Evans will be consistently productive from this point forward.  Evans has at least 65 receiving yards in every game this season.  Think he's not a legitimate #1 receiver?  Think again.

Derek Schouman: I'm liking the fact that Turk Schonert is finding ways to get Schou the ball, even if it's only once a game (or, in reality, every other game).  It should happen more.  He's averaging 15 yards per reception, people!  He's also an underrated blocker.  I think it's high time we gave this kid a shot as our full-time starter at tight end; at least he doesn't fumble the ball.  Robert Royal has lost 4 fumbles over the past two seasons; that's unacceptable for a guy who touches the ball as infrequently as he does.

Keith Ellison: People like to point out that we have a "need" at outside linebacker, but those same people rarely - if ever - acknowledge that Keith Ellison is playing out of his mind.  He has, quite literally, been our most consistent linebacker this season.  Whereas Kawika Mitchell is borderline dominant one week and a liability the next, and while Paul Posluszny is disappearing for stretches, Ellison just makes plays.  He is one of the best open-field tacklers on the team, and he can make plays in the backfield.  He'll never be spectacular, but boy, is he dependable.  He played very well against Miami.

Jabari Greer: I'd like to offer a public apology to Mr. Greer.  Throughout the summer months and the pre-season, I was adamant that rookie Leodis McKelvin would vault Greer to be a starter for this team by mid-season.  McKelvin has had to play, obviously, but not because of Greer; Jabari has been outstanding.  He's a gamer.  He's physical, he's athletic, and though he can be taken advantage of, he's a guy that can be relied on.  He's held down the fort very well while Terrence McGee has been out of the lineup (or playing matador to Ted Ginn's bull).  Jabari's underrated, and I think it's safe to say at this point that he deserves discussion of a contract extension.

Bryan Scott: It's probably not the best news when Scott is the heart and soul of your defense, but that was the case this Sunday.  Scott was outstanding, registering a sack, making two big tackles (in key situations) in the backfield, and providing excellent coverage on the Dolphins' tight end duo of Fasano and Martin (it was Kawika Mitchell that allowed Fasano to score on Miami's opening possession).  Whether or not he's the team's second or third safety is irrelevant - he's playing very, very well right now.

You know things are going poorly for your defense when a second-year wide receiver already widely labeled with the term "bust" nearly doubles his receiving yardage total on the season against your secondary.  That's exactly what Miami Dolphins wide receiver Ted Ginn did yesterday to the suddenly porous pass defense of the Buffalo Bills.  Ginn made several big plays on the day, and most of them came on similar types of play calls.

This one may have been Miami's most important.  The Bills had just driven down the field on the opening drive of the second half to take a 16-7 lead.  I know that I was comfortable at that point; I'm assuming many of you were as well.  One Ginn play, however, changed the entire complexion of the game...

The Situation
MIA ball, 1st and 10, 3rd quarter, Bills lead 16-7

This is a pretty basic formation for the Dolphins, whose offense is coordinated by Dan Henning.  Henning's offenses are famous for being conservative.  That's exactly the look the Bills get here - Anthony Fasano (80) flanks the Dolphins' left tackle, and the Dolphins line up in an off-set I formation.  Ginn (19) is split wide right, lined up opposite the hobbled Terrence McGee (24); Greg Camarillo (83) draws Jabari Greer (33).

The Bills line up in their standard Cover 1 shell here (one safety deep).  Due to Miami's formation, strong safety Bryan Scott (43) and linebacker Kawika Mitchell (59) line up on the line of scrimmage, as this particular Dolphins formation is typically a running formation.  Keith Ellison (56) joins them near the line, feigning blitz, but drops back into zone prior to the snap of the ball.

The Snap

This looks like a running play from the start; the Bills, as a result, get caught peeking.  At the snap, Pennington immediately drops back, but there's a split second where all three of Buffalo's linebackers - Ellison, Mitchell and Paul Posluszny (51) - stand frozen in place, waiting for the run.  The fact that Mitchell is frozen here is the first part of what killed this play for the Bills.  That split second is all Miami needs.

Essentially, free safety Donte Whitner (20) is caught here - in a traditional setup, that is.  Greer plays Camarillo well, jamming him within 5 yards and effectively taking him out of the play.  Both of Miami's tight ends stay in along with fullback Lousaka Polite (36) to max protect; RB Ronnie Brown (23) sneaks through the line and flares left for a dump-off pass.  The pass is out so quickly that Scott, blitzing off of Pennington's blind side, barely has time to engage his blocker.

In normal circumstances, I believe this play goes left.  In normal circumstances, McGee isn't giving up such a huge cushion.  McGee tackled well yesterday, but his sprained knee limited his agility.  Leaving McGee on the field wasn't defensive coordinator Perry Fewell's mistake; matching him up on the speedy Ginn was.  McGee would have fared much better against the bigger, not-as-quick Camarillo.

Mitchell and Posluszny are slow dropping back into zone, and McGee's cushion makes Ginn's square-in route wide open from the moment the ball was snapped.  Pennington gets the ball out on rhythm (on a three-step drop), McGee misses a tackle, and Ginn is off to the races with Whitner, who inexplicably shaded to his right before crossing the field to pick up McGee's man.  64-yard gain.  Momentum immediately reverts to - and remains with - Miami.

The Aftermath

These types of plays happen from time to time in the NFL.  Miami had a good formation that the surprised the Bills with, and it worked to their advantage on this particular play.  The issue, however, was that the Bills allowed receptions like this twice more in the second half, all while this was a one-score game either way.  The problem was that McGee was lined up on Ginn each time.  Miami max protected each time; the Bills were quicker to recognize, but the coaching staff simply didn't counter this Dolphins formation with anything resembling a defense that could slow the image down.

Again, don't blame McGee.  Considering the fact that his lateral movements rivaled my grandfather's yesterday (and both of them are in remarkable shape, considering their respective ages, FYI), he played pretty well.  The problem was that Fewell repeatedly lined him up across from Ginn, exactly the type of receiver that was going to give McGee problems yesterday.  Was this brilliance by Ginn or the Dolphins' offensive "genius", Henning?  Hardly.  They were just taking what Fewell's defense gave them.

Let that image of Ginn sink in.  Let it irritate you to no end.  It should.  Buffalo's coaching staff got smacked around by Bill Parcells' minions yesterday.  It's embarrassing.  It can't happen again.  Let that image of Ginn - who, here in a few weeks, likely will re-assume his label of "bust" - stand as a symbol of yesterday's coaching mediocrity.  Change it, Perry.  Lots needs to change before Laveranues Coles comes to Buffalo this Sunday.

The Buffalo Bills beat the San Diego Chargers 23-14 this past Sunday, but the game didn't completely turn Buffalo's way until linebacker Kawika Mitchell intercepted a pass by San Diego's Philip Rivers, thwarting a would-be go-ahead touchdown.  Mitchell's interception set up the field goal that iced the game for Buffalo as well.  Here's how it happened.

The Situation
San Diego ball, 1st and Goal, 4th Quarter

* This is a bread and butter play for San Diego.  The Chargers line up in an off-set I formation with Vincent Jackson (83) wide left, Antonio Gates (85) in the slot and Brandon Manumaleuna (86) out wide to the right.  The Bills counter with the defense they set aside for Gates.  Reserve safety Bryan Scott (43) lines up in man coverage across from Gates, while Jabari Greer (33) takes Jackson solo and Donte Whitner (20) lines up across from Manumaleuna.
* This play is designed to get single coverage on either Gates, Manumaleuna or LaDainian Tomlinson (21).  Prior to the snap, Manumaleuna motions inside of Gates with Whitner shadowing, meaning that the Gates/Scott matchup now takes place on the outside of the formation.  Clearly, the Chargers' main target on the play is going to be Gates.
* The key to the play for Buffalo here?  Buffalo's linebackers are playing zone underneath the man coverages of Greer, Scott and Whitner.  It's a mix designed to confuse Rivers, but only a terrific read by Mitchell makes the play work.

The Snap

* Things actually fell into place for San Diego here.  The line does a good enough job on the Bills' defensive line, though Copeland Bryan (96) gets some good pressure on Rivers' blind side.  John McCargo (97) takes up the guard (Dielman) and center (Hardwick); Spencer Johnson (91) takes up Goff's attention, and Chris Kelsay (90) occupies Jeromey Clary.
* Paul Posluszny's action seals the play.  Playing in a zone, Posluszny comes up in front of Keith Ellison (56) as the two zone guys responsible for Tomlinson and fullback Mike Tolbert (35) out of the backfield.  Posluszny looks like a blitzer in the process, however; both Tolbert and Tomlinson stay in to max protect.
* Still, the coverages almost work for the Chargers.  Whitner follows Manumaleuna in man coverage into the end zone, where the bulky tight end is doubled by free safety George Wilson (37).  That effectively takes Wilson out of play in terms of coverage on Gates, who is now officially singled up with Scott - and he's got a lot of space in front of him for a score.  This is exactly what the Chargers wanted.
* Normally in this situation, Mitchell is stuck in no-man's land.  The Chargers run this play for a reason - it nearly always works.  Usually, as this play is developing, Mitchell drops back in a zone to "double" Jackson on the left side of the field with Greer.  As you may have heard, however, Buffalo expected the play - and they knew how to defend it when it inevitably showed up.

The Pick and The Aftermath

Mitchell recognizes the play and does what his coaches wanted him to do.  He crosses the field to double Gates; a shallow throw by the unsuspecting Rivers is easily intercepted by the Bills' weak side linebacker.  Game, set, match.

This was a great designed play by the Chargers that they used a bit too often in games leading up to this one.  This is why offensive quality control coaches exist - to eliminate defenders knowing what's coming.  San Diego's guys didn't do their jobs well enough; Mitchell and the Bills coaching staff were on this one like stink on cheese.

That's this week's Paint Analysis, folks.  More Film Analysis to come a bit later on today, but I'll only have some abbreviated thoughts in one post.  For now, enjoy reminiscing about Kawika's pick of Philip Rivers!

     
Buffalo Bills (4-0) at Arizona Cardinals (2-2)
Sunday, October 5, 2008 - 4:15 PM EDT
SB Nation's Cardinals coverage: Revenge of the Birds

The 4-0 (how great does that sound?!?) Buffalo Bills head out to the desert to face the Arizona Cardinals in a tough intra-conference matchup.  The Bills are looking to move to 5-0 for the first time since 1991 and for just the fourth time in franchise history.  Below are my keys to a Bills victory and a perfect record heading into the bye week:

Harass Kurt Warner: Pretty self-explanatory, but do whatever is necessary to get after Warner. Blitz him from any and all angles, run stunts, create pressure up the middle, hit him with a 2x4, etc.  Simply put, pressure and harass him, and he will turn the ball over.  We cannot allow him to sit back in the pocket because he will pick us apart and hit his talented wideouts.  He's as good as it gets when given the time to throw; it's time for us to have a game like the Jets D just had against him last week.  To do so, we have to get after him.  I like the Aaron Schobel vs Mike Gandy matchup.  If there is ever a game for Schobel to look like a Pro Bowler, it's this week against our old turnstile, Gandy.

Live on the Edge: Don't let Warner beat us; instead, force Edgerrin James to crank out the yards.  He's nowhere near the explosive runner he used to be and it may be in our defense's best interest to go the nickel route and challenge the Cardinals to beat us by running it.  I have no concern about James and the Cards' running game, so it is likely we focus on stopping the Cardinals through the air and take our chances against the Edge.

Take Fitzgerald out of the game: Easier said than done, I'd say.  With Anquan Boldin more than likely out of this game, Larry Fitzgerald will be the apple of Kurt Warner's eye.  And he could very well destroy our secondary if given the opportunity.  Because of that, I would focus heavily on shutting him down, shading a safety (likely Ko Simpson) toward him early and often.  With Terrence McGee out, we'll have to provide help to Jabari Greer and the young corners, Leodis McKelvin and Ashton Youboty.  I'll take my chances with Steve Breaston and Jerheme Urban rather than letting Fitzgerald run free.

Control the line of scrimmage...offensively: There comes a time when the OL has to step up their play and finally hit their potential.  We've been so far from that level the past few weeks, but this is a good week for them to return to form.  Darnell Dockett is a very good player for the Cards, but their other starters are nothing to be overly scared of: Gabe Watson, Antonio Smith and Travis LaBoy (sorry Cards fans, don't kill me).  They have actually been quite solid this year stopping the run and getting after the QB, so despite their anonymity, they have been effective. The linebackers, led by Karlos Dansby, are pretty solid, so it will take a strong effort from our big nasties to control the game.  WIth the way they've played recently, I have a feeling that pride will kick in and they will finally have a big game, instead of a big quarter or two like we've been experiencing. 

Show Lee Evans off: Having signed Evans to a brand new, big time contract extension, I think fans around the league would like to see whether Evans is worth that type of money or not.  This is the perfect week for Evans to have a big time game to prove to everyone how good he can be.  With a semi-hobbled Eric Green, a rather solid, but unspectacular Rod Hood and the young Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie manning the CB spots for Arizona, Evans will have enough opportunities to excel this week.  The deep ball was a major concern for the Cardinals D last week, so that looks to be an area Trent Edwards needs to attack this week.  Like I say every week, get Lee into it early. I'd love to see him finally have an 8+ catch game.

Dominate Special Teams: This should be a close game which could come down to Special Teams.  The Bills should have a significant advantage in all areas of the "third phase", and this is an area to excel in this week.  Steve Breaston is a solid punt returner, but overall hasn't had much success returning kicks or punts this year.  Dirk Johnson is a mediocre punter who will give McKelvin and Fred Jackson opportunities to return punts, so the blocking needs to remain as strong as it has all season there.  As a unit, the Cardinals have been one of the bottom teams in the league this year, while the Bills rank near the top, per usual.  This would be a good week for McKelvin to break that big kick return we've all been waiting for.

***

This is a big game for the Bills and a win would leave a great taste in their mouth heading into the bye.  It is also another opportunity for the team to show that they are a contender this year and are able to win tough games, including tough games on the road.  Go Bills, and let's make it 5-0!

Stay tuned to Buffalo Rumblings and tomorrow's Open Game Thread for the "live chat" during today's big game with the Cardinals!  That thread will open approximately an hour before the 4:15 PM EDT kickoff.  Until then, GO BILLS!