RB Lynch is third in rushing in AFC (buffalobills.com)

Attention, Buffalo Bills coaching staff.

See that young man pictured at the top right of this story? Dons the number 23, your colors, wears dreads and gold teeth, and is, quite simply, the hardest-running running back in the NFL? His name is Marshawn Lynch, alias "Beast Mode", and you guys might consider using him more often.

Despite losing a fumble at the end of the first half which directly led to 3 of the San Francisco 49ers' 10 points on Sunday, Lynch enjoyed the best game of his career. Through three quarters, Lynch had carried the ball 15 times, amassed a whopping 133 yards, and was the only Bills offense weapon making plays on the day. Then the fourth quarter rolled around, and with the Bills trailing by just a touchdown, Lynch was primed to put his lackluster team on his shoulders and grind them through to a key win. It's not like he hadn't done it before; trailing 10-2 in Miami in 2007, Lynch scored a touchdown and a two-point conversion in the fourth quarter to tie the game before the Bills won it. This game had exactly the same feel.

His fourth quarter stat line? 1 carry, 1 yard; 1 catch, 1 yard.

Bills head coach Dick Jauron on Monday said he wished, obviously, that Lynch had touched the ball more. Add Jauron's name to the masses who screamed it all day Sunday from various locales. I don't know what this coaching staff's fascination with spread formations is, but in case you haven't heard, that offense doesn't work in a Buffalo winter. Nor do I know what this coaching staff's fascination with Fred Jackson in short yardage situations is, but for all of the value that Jackson and his versatility bring to this team, he is not a short yardage back. Lynch is your money maker; your chain mover. He's the heartbeat of this Bills team. If there's one thing above all that can be considered the most unacceptable statistic from Sunday's loss, it's the fact that Lynch touched the ball twice with the game on the line. Pathetic.

News flash: the Bills need to win four straight games if they plan on delivering on Donte Whitner's playoff guarantee - and they'll need plenty of help beyond that, as well. You want to increase your chances of winning these games? Scrap the offense. Give it to Lynch, and work the play-action from there. That attack produced 54 points in Kansas City; why that attack went away for the Niners game can be added to the "mysteries of the universe" pile. Lynch is a player that wins football games. Right now, Trent Edwards clearly isn't.

News and Notes

  Biggest shock of your Tuesday morning? Jerry Sullivan wants Dick Jauron fired. What? That's not a surprise? Whoops. My bad.

  Ted Rogers, CEO of Rogers Communications and one of two men behind the Bills in Toronto Series, passed away yesterday at the age of 75. WGR 550 has a nice piece on his legacy, which is far brighter than his famous press conference with our very own Ralph Wilson.

  Jason Peters still isn't a very popular guy, despite the fact that he's returned to his dominant form over the past three games. What if I told you that he wanted to run it more, too? Would you like him then?

  Allen Wilson of The Buffalo News takes an in-depth look at Buffalo's red zone woes, possession by possession. Bring Tums if you're reading.

  Bills fans did naughty things to players as they left the field following Sunday's debacle. Shame on us, naughty Bills fans.

  The prognosis on QB Trent Edwards' groin injury: it's very sore, but he might practice Wednesday. Trent has been struggling, and clearly, he needs to keep playing. Experience is everything for this kid. Here's to the Bills numbing Trent Edwards' groin.

  Matty I from The Phinsider will be here for the rest of the week answering questions about the Dolphins in preparation for this weekend's game. If you feel like defending your Bills in front of a bunch of lunatic Dolphin fans, click here. Just don't go if you can't handle Toronto jokes.

I made it back from my trip in better shape than I had hoped (I credit the first class seats…) so I got right on the Chiefs game. Besides, I had kept track of the game whenever I wasn’t on a plane throughout the day on my Crackberry and I was anxious to figure out how the Bills had hung 50+ points on anyone. Lynch, Jackson, Evans and Edwards all had pretty good statistical days but that couldn’t explain the scoring production.

The Chiefs helped the cause by turning the ball over 4 times. Yes, it’s officially 5 but that was the last play of the first half so it didn’t really have an impact on the game. One of the turnovers led directly to points while the others contributed. More to the point, the Bills had awesome field position all day long. The average starting position was on Buffalo’s 47.9 yard line. That’s just terrific work by the defense and special teams units.

I am always curious to see how much pressure defenses are bringing to bear on the offense. The Chiefs, following the pattern established by the Jets, Dolphins, Patriots and Browns didn’t blitz at all in the first half. With the game slipping away, the Browns blitzed 5 of 16 (31.3%) passes in the second half. Edwards, as he tends to do against the blitz, made them pay. He was 4-4 for 38 yards and 2 first downs and scrambled once for 11 yards and another first down. If Buffalo can put teams into positions where the defense feels compelled to blitz, Edwards will carve them up—much as he did during the first four weeks of the season. Naturally, this means jumping up on teams early which Buffalo hasn’t done this season.

The Chiefs run a 4-3 but they’re a bad 4-3. As a result, they had 8 in the box on 15 of 31 (48.4%) run plays. To give you an idea of how bad their defense is, the Bills gained 77 yards and 1 TD on the 15 plays in which the Chiefs had 8 in the box. That’s an eye popping 5.1 ypa—with 8 in the box! By way of comparison, the Bills picked up 59 yards on the other 16 run plays—a more reasonable 3.7 ypa. Basically, when the Chiefs stacked the box they tended to give up more big plays (25, 17,  14) because there was no one left to limit the gain. Jackson and Lynch routinely broke tackles, making the 8th man in the box more of a liability than an asset. Against better defenses, that won’t be the case. Fortunately, the 49ers don’t have one of the better defenses in the league…even though I don’t see many people shaking off Willis once he’s latched on.

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Welcome back Brad Butler! Oh, how you have been missed.  Also, welcome back Pro Bowl form Jason Peters. Where have you been hiding?

I was one of those people who was completely mystified by Derek Fine’s selection in the draft. I thought we pretty much already had him on the roster under another name (Derek Schouman) and really wanted Buffalo to pick up a stud FB with that pick. Ooops. While the FB position remains an issue Corey (McIntyre does make contact—an improvement over Barnes—but he either plows into the backs of teammates or fails to stop a defender even when he generates a good pop.) I’m seeing why Buffalo expended a pick on Fine. He’s a hell of a blocker. He was on the field more than Robert Royal, which kind of suggests that Royal’s days in Buffalo are numbered. He won’t blow anyone away with his receiving numbers (he had one catch for 6 yards and couldn’t dig an errant Trent Edwards’ throw out of the dirt) but he’s tenacious in the trenches.

I don’t think I’ve ever seen a game in which a defense didn’t blitz at all. Ever. Well, I have now. They never sent more than 4 defenders and only sent that many on 10 of 30 (33.3%) of pass plays. Edwards faced 8 man coverage schemes 66.7% of the time. The Browns also didn’t stack the box often—just 5 of 36 (13.9%) of the time. On those runs (5, 10, 26, 33, 36) the Bills picked up (3, 19, -1, 1 TD, 2) 24 yards, or 4.8 ypa. That sort of defense just screams run, and run Buffalo did—6 more times than they passed.

We all (I think) acknowledge that Duke Preston isn’t a starting quality center. While Buffalo had their most productive game on the ground (180 yards), Preston had an absolutely miserable game. He had 2 good run plays, 15 decent ones, an eye-popping 19 bad ones and 4 killed plays. That grades out at a horrible 65.5%. Rogers bent him over and made Preston his woman….even when Preston initially had help from Derrick Dockery or Butler.  While I have heaped scorn (well deserved, I think) on Dick Jauron for his uber-conservative play calling at the end of the game, I hadn’t yet realized how badly Preston played on that final series. He helped kill that drive and Buffalo’s chances of winning the game. My guess is that Jauron told him the center job is his to lose—and he’s lost it. Look for Buffalo to finally address the position in the off-season, quite possibly through free agency AND the draft.

Fair warning: I will be on the east coast over the Thanksgiving holiday so I almost certainly won’t be able to break down this Sunday’s game until sometime down the road. I’m guessing it will be something I do over Christmas break….after I get back from Vegas.

The rest of my rambling is after the jump, which Kurupt was nice enough to tell me how to do....

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Simpson, others playing for 2009 jobs? (buffalobills.com)

One may read the headline of this piece and think "Oh boy, Galliford's the latest to give up on the Buffalo Bills this season".  Though I might argue that - along with everyone else that's hopped off the bandwagon - we have good reason to doubt it, rest assured that's not the case.  So when (if?) you read this piece, read it with the knowledge that I am not denying that the Bills still have a shot at the playoffs.

Instead, I'll speak briefly about how I'm a guy that's constantly looking forward - just as many of you are.  I love watching football, but I also love the idea of building a roster; finding those ever-elusive pieces of a contending puzzle and fitting them together.  Whether the Bills make the playoffs this year or not, the 2008 season can now officially be considered in the home stretch with just six weeks to go.  Even if the Bills end their post-season drought, there are guys on this roster who should recognize the fact that they're playing for their jobs beyond this season.  Lighting a fire under these players could, in fact, give the team a spark heading into these ultra-important six games.

Those ten players, in no specific order...

QB Trent Edwards.  To answer your question, yes, I do hate putting Trent on this list.  In reality, I don't believe that Edwards is on the proverbial "hot seat" in any sense of the term when it comes to his status with this coaching staff.  But it's not hard to imagine a scenario where if Buffalo's quarterback continues to struggle as the season closes out, Bills fans will be calling for the team to begin a new quarterback search.  A nice, strong, confidence-boosting finish by Edwards would erase a lot of that potential.

WR Steve Johnson.  Stevie isn't going anywhere; it should be noted, then, that Johnson makes this list because he's playing for a much bigger role in 2009.  Johnson has seen his role increase of late, and while he hasn't been perfect, he's shown a pretty good rapport with Edwards.  He knows how to find a hole in a zone, and he's looked pretty good both as a run blocker and after the catch.  This kid has a future.  He and Josh Reed could wreak a lot of havoc underneath in 2009.

TE Robert Royal.  There are games where Royal looks like a highly competent tight end; those games, however, are few and far between.  Clearly, the Bills need an upgrade at tight end.  Royal is entering the final year of his deal next season.  He's one of a few Bills veterans that fall under the category of "most likely to get cut"; he is, quite literally, playing for a job in 2009.

OT Jason Peters.  I'm not one of the bandwagon fans who like to boo Peters every time he makes one little mistake.  Peters may not be as dominant as he was in 2007, when he was voted to his first Pro Bowl, but he's playing at a very high level.  He'll need to return to dominant form as the season closes if he expects to receive that fat contract extension he so desperately desires.

C Duke Preston.  Melvin Fowler, benched since early in the season, is a goner, as he's an unrestricted free agent after the season.  Problem is, so is Preston.  The Bills are expected to upgrade the center position from outside the organization, but Preston has a legitimate chance to be re-signed as the new guy's understudy.  He'll have to play better than he has in recent weeks, however.

DE Chris Kelsay.  Kelsay's contract runs out in 2010.  He hasn't been productive from an on-field standpoint.  There will come a time when Dick Jauron has to upgrade players he likes with players he likes and can win with.  Kelsay's contract, as most of you know, is gigantic (for a player his caliber).  I still have my doubts that Kelsay is a goner after the season, but his time as this team's starting left end is likely growing short.

DE Ryan Denney.  If Kelsay's not a goner, Denney is.  He's 31 years old and is scheduled to earn $2.4 million in base salaries alone next season - the final year of his deal.  That's too much money for a guy who, if the Bills upgrade the position, would be fourth or fifth in the rotation.

DT John McCargo.  He's been a healthy scratch, he's been traded, and he's been a healthy scratch again.  Motivation is McCargo's problem, and although he's under contract through the close of the 2010 season, it's hard to imagine a scenario in which McCargo returns to the Bills in 2009 after what he's gone through the past 8 months.  If McCargo sees the field again this season, he'll be playing for his next job in another NFL city.

CB Terrence McGee.  Hear me out on this one.  McGee is under contract through the end of next season.  He'll be 29 if he hits unrestricted free agency as scheduled.  Rookie corner Leodis McKelvin has come on strong, and it's hard to imagine a scenario where the Bills let Jabari Greer walk, as he's been the team's best defensive back this season (Greer is a UFA after this season).  Don't forget about Ashton Youboty and Reggie Corner, either.  Buffalo's cornerback spot is still crowded despite the injuries, and McGee is the toughest guy to figure into the team's future plans.  He'll need to perform to keep his status as this team's top cover man (and, for the record, he was excellent against Cleveland).

FS Ko Simpson.  Simpson has been juggled around a lot.  He missed the entire 2007 season with an ankle injury.  He's been semi-benched this season in order to move Donte Whitner to his free safety spot, sliding Bryan Scott into the starting lineup at strong safety (though he still plays more at free than any other safety on the team).  The Bills are deep at this position, but they lack playmakers.  If the Bills feel the need to add a play-making safety in the off-season to team with Whitner, it's clearly Simpson who'll be riding the pine or looking for employment elsewhere.

***

Feel free to add names to the list.  And on a side note, let's keep coaches out of this.  We've heard enough about everyone's opinions on Dick Jauron, and there are a million FanPosts in which you can vent about Buffalo's head coach if you feel inclined to do so.  This is about the roster.  Have at it, folks.

Jackson's pay far below his value (buffalobills.com)

After a 4-0 start, the Buffalo Bills have lost 4 of 5 games, are cellar-dwellers in the AFC East, and once again face an uphill climb toward the post-season.

There.  Got my negativity out of the way today.  Not that y'all needed reminding, but that's where we stand with Monday Night Football looming.

Instead of harping on all of the team's problems, which I've done to the point of gut ulcer over the past two days, I'd like to focus on the (very few) positives surrounding this team right now.  Alas, as with so many years prior to this, the only way to do that is to look a bit further forward than I'd like to.  I'm doing it anyways.  It's hump day - and I can't take another day of Bills bashing, at least from my mouth.

So consider this an open thread to discuss the question posed in the headline: which current Bills players deserve contract extensions?  Anyone is game, all opinions are valued.  Before I let y'all get to it, however, I'd like to put out a couple of (obvious) names to get the discussion rolling...

CB Jabari Greer (2009 UFA; current salary: $950,000; age: 26)
- Greer has been Buffalo's second most valuable defensive back over the past two seasons.  Donte Whitner gets a slight edge, and that's only due to the fact that Mr. Whitner can play wherever he's lined up.  Greer is a play-maker.  He's the glue that's held this secondary together for two seasons, as the team has dealt with injuries to [insert any DB's name here].

Jabari is never going to be a Champ Bailey.  But he plays hard, he tackles surprisingly well, and he's spilled blood and guts for this organization ever since he was brought in as an undrafted free agent in 2004.  At the age of 26, Greer is in his prime, and has the look of a long-term starter in this league.  Buffalo would be very wise to lock him up prior to the end of this season.

RB Fred Jackson (2009 ERFA; current salary: $370,000; age: 27)
- As an Exclusive Rights free agent, the Bills have a lot of negotiating power when it comes to Jackson; he's not going anywhere.  He's not a guy who would hold out, either.  But he deserves to be paid more than he currently is, because his versatility makes him an incredibly valuable asset to this team.  From his role as Marshawn Lynch's change-of-pace to his value as a reserve return man on special teams, Jackson has the ability to do whatever his coaches ask of him - and they do ask.

At 27 years of age, Jackson isn't exactly a young gun.  Due to his strange, winding trip to the NFL, however, he doesn't have a lot of mileage on him, and he will help prolong the career of Lynch (if the Bills fix the O-Line, that is).  Jackson works well with Marshawn.  He's got a good rapport with the quarterback.  He needs to be a bigger part of the team's long-term plans; he needs a longer-term contract first.

***

These are the only two names on my list; suffice it to say, however, that many of you are a bit less conservative than me when it comes to pretending to spend Ralph Wilson's money.  Feel free to talk about Greer/Jackson's worthiness for extensions, add any names to the list, or rip gigantic babies who think they should be on the list (do I really need to type the name?).

   
Buffalo Bills (5-2) vs New York Jets (4-3)
Sunday, November 2 - 1:00 PM EST

In what has consistently been the most heated of all AFC East battles over the last few years, the 5-2 Buffalo Bills are set to host the 4-3 New York Jets this weekend in a renewed division rivalry.  Despite the fact that the Bills swept the Jets last season, this rivalry has been relatively even during the Tom Brady Era of the AFC East.  These two teams are now in the thick of the tightest division race in recent memory, heightening the importance of this game.

John Butchko of Gang Green Nation and I have singled out four key matchups for this game; rather than both provide break-downs of each matchup, we each took two and left the rivalry out of it.  We're saving the rivalry for game day; Buffalo needs to play with a bit more emotion than they did last weekend.  Here are the matchups, with each of our break-downs:

MATCHUP ONE: Jets CB Darrelle Revis vs. Bills WR Lee Evans
Butchko: The Jets have a pretty thin secondary. Aside from Revis, only Dwight Lowery might be capable of going one on one consistently with any kind of success against even an average receiver. This means Revis will probably be left on an island a lot with Evans. A vertical threat like Evans does give me cause for concern because Darrelle has been beaten deep a few times this season. Fortunately for the Jets, the opposition typically has not had the quarterback to exploit it. Trent Edwards will.  On a personal note, this matchup will serve as one of the agonies of playing fantasy football as Evans is on my team.  Advantage: Bills

MATCHUP TWO: Bills OT Jason Peters vs. Jets LB Calvin Pace
Galliford: I like Peters in this one.  Jason has been playing well, and although he hasn't reached his Pro Bowl level of 2007, he's probably also gotten a bad rap for giving up some plays in key situations.  I'd like to see Peters play a little harder and through the whistle - if he does that, he'll be one of the best at his position for a very long time.  Pace isn't an overwhelmingly athletic player, so if he picks up sacks, it'll be because Edwards is holding the ball too long.  Pace is a very good player, but he's the type of player that Peters has handled in the past.  Advantage: Bills

MATCHUP THREE: Jets NT Kris Jenkins vs. Bills C Duke Preston
Butchko: It is only fitting we look at this matchup, considering the wars Kevin Mawae and Ted Washington had for years in this rivalry. While the media fawned over the addition of Brett Favre, Jenkins was probably the biggest move the Jets made in the offseason. Teams have struggled to run against the Jets this year because Jenkins has been an immovable object in the middle of the line. He has gained penetration
constantly and kept his linebackers clean. The best nose tackles occupy two gaps. There have been times this season when Jenkins has occupied three gaps worth of blockers. With all of the attention he has drawn, it has benefited other players like Shaun Ellis, who has seen more one on one matchups and is putting together his best season since2003. Preston will have his hands full.  Advantage: Jets

MATCHUP FOUR: Bills ST kick coverage vs. Jets KR Leon Washington
Galliford: The Bills won't give Washington many opportunities to touch the ball on kicking teams.  Rian Lindell has mastered the "pooch kickoff", in which he pops a kick high into the air and an up man is forced to fair catch it at about the 30 yard line.  The Bills feel comfortable sacrificing field position to make the offense work for scores; unless the Jets get creative and move Washington around to fool the Bills, I doubt he gets more than one or two chances to return kicks.  Advantage: Push

Originally, I had planned our usual "interview the enemy" segment this morning, in which we talk Bills/Jets with bloggers of that hated green team.  I'm delaying it for now because there is a ton of great reading material out there this morning in regards to the Buffalo Bills, their players and the upcoming game.  That doesn't happen often.  Let's get to it.

   Mark Gaughan of The Buffalo News talks injuries.  Specifically, he talks Josh Reed's injury.  It's a good read, but I'm more intrigued about two things in the article: the comments of Roscoe Parrish, and the fact that nothing was mentioned about banged up CB Ashton Youboty.

   We revisit Gaughan to discuss the fact that Duke Preston may now be the team's permanent starter at center.  I'm sure many of you are intrigued by this.  I'll wait to hear what Ron from NM thinks this weekend before I pass judgment.

   Jerry Sullivan does Kurupt a favor by taking public the Bills' need for a pass rush.  This is pretty much the position of the bandwagon that K has been leading for two years.  Sully doesn't say anything too profound here, but I'm sure many of you will use this as a launching point for your own thoughts.

   Is Jason Peters slipping?  That's a question that John Wawrow answers with everything short of a resounding "yes".  Anyone out there still irritated by Peters' comments, even if they're mostly true?

   This is a nice read on Keith Ellison, Buffalo's most underappreciated defender.  There's some erroneous reporting here (Kawika Mitchell hasn't played a snap at strong side linebacker since he was here, folks), but it's a good article nonetheless.

   Scouts, Inc. has its scouting report for the upcoming Bills/Jets game up.  It's pretty accurate, though, clearly, I'd contend that they're wrong in giving the Jets advantages in a few positional categories.  For those of you who don't have Insider access, I'll kill the anticipation: Scouts predicts a final score of Bills 28, Jets 23.  I'd take it.

   We're not done with Scouts, who name the Bills as one of four teams staring through a glorious window of opportunity.  Apparently, the Cardinals, Falcons and Packers are right there with us - and I'd have a hard time arguing that.

   BRUUUUUUUUUUCE.  Former Buffalo Bills defensive end Bruce Smith - the NFL's all-time leading sack artist, with 200 career take-downs - headlines a first-year Hall of Fame potential class that includes former greats Broncos TE Shannon Sharpe and Steelers DB Rod Woodson.  That's a heck of a trio right there.

     
Buffalo Bills (5-1) at Miami Dolphins (2-4)
Four key matchups and who wins them

The Buffalo Bills are set to square off in Miami with the Dolphins this coming Sunday as the Bills look to open the divisional portion of their schedule with a bang.  In anticipation of the rivalry game, Matty I of The Phinsider along with yours truly have gotten together for a little debate about four of this game's key personnel matchups.

Here's what each of us had to say about the four matchups we decided to break down.  Surprisingly, there wasn't much differentiation of opinion between the two of us; still, it's good for a little debate on a Friday at work.  Take a gander and have at it in the comments section.

MATCHUP 1: Dolphins OLB Joey Porter vs. Bills' O-Line
Brian Galliford: The Bills struggled early in the season in pass protection; they gave up 16 sacks in the team's first 5 games.  Coming off of the bye week, however, the Bills faced a pretty stiff Chargers pass rush - including the underrated Shaun Phillips - and Trent Edwards wasn't sacked once.  In fact, he wasn't even hit.  Jason Peters appears to be fully restored to prominence after an off-season holdout, and when at full strength, pass blocking has always been this line's strong point.  Joey Porter is an excellent player having an outstanding season, but I don't think he's going to get too many opportunities to hit Edwards.  Advantage: Bills

Matty I: While the Bills offensive line did a much better job protecting Trent Edwards last week, I'm still not sold on them.  They've still given up the 9th most sacks in the league despite shutting down the Chargers' pass rush and Football Outsiders ranks Buffalo's pass protection 24th in adjusted sack rate - which is a stat that takes into account the number of sacks allowed per pass attempt while considering things like opponent, down, and distance.  I think Joey Porter is going to be moved around a little bit more than usual - especially if Jason Peters is having a good game, which would mean Porter would have some pass-rushing opportunities against RT Langston Walker.  And I'd be shocked if Porter doesn't at least pressure Edwards on a consistent basis.  Advantage: Dolphins

MATCHUP 2: Dolphins DT Randy Starks vs. Bills C Duke Preston
Brian Galliford: Look, I'm as down on Buffalo's centers as anyone.  Duke Preston hasn't played much at the position, and Melvin Fowler has struggled mightily throughout his tenure in Buffalo.  Fowler is a smart guy, but he's simply lacking physically.  Preston is a bit bulkier, but he struggles at the point of attack as well.  With that in mind, we know all about Randy Starks - we heard bad things about him this past off-season.  Twice, actually.  He's playing out of position this week, to boot.  Considering that Preston and his interior line mates just kept San Diego's Jamal Williams under control, I'm not particularly concerned about Starks.  Advantage: Bills

Matty I: With it looking more and more likely that Jason Ferguson won't be able to play on Sunday (and if he does, wouldn't be at full strength), Randy Starks has to step up.  He'll be playing out of position and he didn't play particularly well last week.  His inability to take on blockers and free up Miami's linebackers really hurt the Dolphins' ability to stuff the run.  And though Marshawn Lynch doesn't have great numbers, he's still a good back.  Luckily, neither Melvin Fowler or Duke Preston are particularly good centers.  But Preston, with help from the guards, did a surprisingly good job on Jamal Williams last week.  The Dolphins' coaches will be hoping for a Jay Ratliff type of performance from Starks - who had little to no experience as a NT last year in Dallas when he filled in admirably for Ferguson after Ferguson went down with an injury.  But I'll be honest: I'm a bit worried about this matchup heading into Sunday.  Advantage: Bills

MATCHUP 3: Bills WR Lee Evans vs. Dolphins CB Will Allen
Brian Galliford: Evans has been excellent this season.  I doubt he's ever going to be a guy who dominates a game from start to finish, as guys like Owens and Moss have proven themselves to be, but he's explosive.  He's killed the Dolphins, too - much like former Dolphins WR Chris Chambers routinely killed the Bills.  Evans was dominant this past weekend with Antonio Cromartie on his hip; I highly doubt Will Allen will fare much better.  Advantage: Bills

Matty I: Ugh.  Just the mention of Lee Evans sends chills down my spine.  He's the epitome of a Dolphin-killer.  In just 8 career games against the Fins, Evans has 8 touchdowns (averaging a TD every 3 catches against Miami) and averages 22.2 yards per catch.  While Trent Edwards doesn't throw the deep ball as good as J.P. Losman (at least, form what I've seen), he can still sling it and is more accurate on those intermediate throws.  On the positive side, Will Allen has shown that he can defend the smaller, faster receivers better than the taller, more physical ones.  And Allen has had at least a little success against Evans, like when he held Evans to just 2 catches for 19 yards in their first meeting back in 2006.  Even still, though, you have to imagine the Dolphins are not going to leave Allen alone on Evans.  Look for safety help over the top.  Advantage: Bills

MATCHUP 4: Bills SS Donte Whitner vs. Dolphins TEs Anthony Fasano/David Martin
Brian Galliford: The Bills generally struggle defending big targets.  They were able to contain Antonio Gates last week by lining up reserve safety Bryan Scott on him and throwing double teams at him; Gates still caught 4 passes for pretty sizeable chunks of yardage.  I doubt Whitner will see most, if any at all, of his time on these guys; CB Ashton Youboty is unlikely to play, so Whitner could be spending some time at corner.  Clearly, Fasano and Martin aren't Gates, but they're a formidable duo that have been performing fairly well, from what I can tell.  This is going to be a point of emphasis for the Bills, I believe - shut down the run and attempt to contain Fasano and Martin, who are very obviously two of Pennington's most cherished targets.  For now, though... Advantage: Dolphins

Matty I: Tight ends are a big part of a Dan Henning offense and we've seen that this season - with Anthony Fasano and David Martin combining for 33 catches, 467 yards, and 3 touchdowns.  More importantly, they seem to be the only players who can consistently get open - which is why they've combined to receive 25% of Chad Pennington's total targets.  This is important to note because, from all I've see and read, the Bills have a tendency to surrender yards to opposing tight ends.  For the Dolphins, it's important to get these 2 involved in the offense early.  Doing so could potentially open things up more for the receivers outside, as the Bills would have to make the necessary adjustments if Fasano and Martin are active in the passing attack right from the get go.  Advantage: Dolphins

     
Buffalo Bills (4-1) vs San Diego Chargers (3-3)
Sunday, October 19, 2008 - 1:00PM EDT
SB Nation's Chargers coverage: Bolts From The Blue

It's only been two weeks since the meltdown in Arizona, but it's felt like months.  Buffalo Bills football is finally back, following a long bye week, with the San Diego Chargers in town for a tough AFC matchup.  It'll be a struggle to beat the Chargers and get to 5-1, but below are my keys to a Bills victory Sunday afternoon:

Pray for Melvin Fowler: If anyone watched the Chargers/Patriots game on Sunday night, they saw NT Jamal Williams absolutely destroy Pats' Pro Bowl C Dan Koppen.  He treated him as if he were a freshman in high school. The Fowler (or Duke Preston, if Fowler can't go) vs Williams battle is going to be one where the Chargers have a significant advantage.  The Bills are going to have to give Fowler help or we're going to see pressure up the middle all afternoon.  If they can double Williams and neutralize him, the potential for run success and a pocket for Trent Edwards will be there.  That's a big if.

Keep Trent upright:  This is twofold.  On one hand, nobody wants to see him take another shot, as I'm sure we'll all be holding our breath every time he hits the turf.  We need him healthy and running the offense if we want to beat the Chargers.  On the other hand, we also need to keep him upright in order to keep the chains moving.  As Brian said, the potential to control the clock via the pass will be there, but that won't happen if Trent is getting hit early and often.  The Chargers have 17 sacks on the season, including 12 in their past 3 games, and our OL has given up 16.  It's time for Jason Peters and Langston Walker to finally come to play. 

Start fast: Other than the Jacksonville game, we haven't played very well in the first half of any game.  A strong start would go a long way towards a victory this week.  We also have to limit San Diego early on.  In their two best performances of the season, against the Jets and Pats, the Chargers have outscored the opponent 48-17 in the first half.  They proceeded to roll after that.  If the Chargers get up early, they are very tough to come back on.  This is definitely not a game we can start slowly in.  After two weeks to prepare, there's no reason the offense shouldn't come out strong, especially if Edwards isn't rusty.  San Diego will obviously be keying on a fast start themselves, so this will be one to watch.

Find a way, any way, to get after Rivers:  I've harped on it enough and we all know the pass rush has been stagnant at best.  With two weeks to prepare and work on some blitzes, Perry Fewell's defense has to come out and get after Philip Rivers.  With Aaron Schobel iffy with his foot injury and an ineffective rush around him, Buffalo's blitzers are going to have to come up huge this week.  We cannot let Rivers sit back there and pick apart our defense underneath like Kurt Warner was allowed to do two weeks ago.  Rivers likes to go deep to his big receivers; we have to disrupt his timing and force him to move around.  With that, Fewell has to let his corners play up on the line of scrimmage to take away the quick stuff that killed us against Arizona. With Terrence McGee out, we definitely need to force Rivers' hand.

Don't let Tomlinson find his footing: We've all heard about LT's struggles this year, but he's getting healthy and he's still as good a RB as there is in the NFL.  Personally, I don't want to see him return to prominence this week.  Our potentially mediocre run defense (currently 18th in the NFL) has started to regress as the season has progressed.  The Chargers haven't run it all that well yet this year, but have the potential to do so.  Our run D has been mostly stout, but water has started leaking in as we've allowed 145 rushing yards per game the last two after a great start.  Which run D will show up this week?  Hopefully the one we saw in our first three games (94 ypg), not the past two.

More Marshawn: With the Bills continuous struggle to run the ball, Turk Schonert needs to continue finding other ways to get him the ball in space.  It'd be nice to incorporate the screen pass back into the offense this week.  Lynch and Fred Jackson should receive heavy workloads this week.

Win the turnover battle: This has been a sore spot for the Bills thus far this season.  We're near the bottom of the league at a -3, having only forced 6 turnovers in our five games.  The Chargers on the other hand are sitting at +4, which is third in the NFL.  I'm guessing if these trends continue, we're not going to have a happy Sunday.  The Bills D needs to find some ways to get the ball for the offense, while the offense has to take good care of the rock this weekend.  The Chargers and their high-powered offense are not a team you want to turn it over against.

Get Lee Evans the ball:  I say this every week, and I'll probably say it every week going forward.  We need to get Lee Evans the ball more than 3-4 times a game as we have.  The third highest paid WR in the game needs many more touches than that.  I expect Evans to see some of Antonio Cromartie this weekend, which will be an extremely tough matchup for him.  Cromartie is big, physical and fast, not the type of CB Evans is built to beat. Schonert is really going to have to move him around this weekend, including putting him in motion, to prevent jams.  Some quick passes to Lee will be essential to open it up deep for him.  DaBolts believes Quentin Jammer will be matched up with Evans often to take away the deep ball.  If that happens, I like Evans to have deep ball success.  He can beat any CB in the league deep.  Jammer would be no exception.  I think it would be much tougher on him to be matched up exclusively with Cromartie and his physical play.

Win Special Teams:  The Chargers have a dynamic return man in Darren Sproles, assuming he's healthy, so it'll be a challenge for our coverage units this week.  It'd also be a great game for Leodis McKelvin to finally break a big kick return.  He's been solid, but has yet to really showcase the big play we saw in the preseason.  And with Roscoe Parrish back in the mix, our punt return unit should again have that big play element back in it's repertoire.  I just hope the thumb injury and wrap doesn't hinder his ability to hold onto the ball.

Simply put, WIN:  To me, this game is a season definer.  With a tough schedule coming up with 3 straight division games, including a tougher-than-anyone-could-have-expected-in-a-million-years road game in Miami next week, we really could use a victory this week.  With another playoff contender coming into our stadium, the Bills need to prove themselves capable of beating the better teams in the league.  It's been a struggle to do that for as long as we can all remember.  This week is a good time to help change that attitude and prove to the league that the Bills will be there all year.  If we can come out with a big W over the Chargers, we will be in GREAT shape going forward.  A loss and we're close to teetering the wrong way with road games 2 of the next 3 weeks.  A win really sets the stage for a great rest of the season.  A loss and we're really headed in the wrong direction.  This game could really define the rest of the season and how it plays out.

***

There you have it, keys to a big Bills win.  It's going to be a very, very difficult challenge for the team.  Let's hope they are up to it.  The Ralph hasn't rocked in almost a month, let's hope it is this Sunday.  Go Bills!

The Cardinals game was certainly a disappointing showing by the Bills. Any time you give up 5 sacks you’re going to have a hard time winning. The line certainly didn’t cover itself with glory on run plays. They didn’t get much help from the coaching staff. With all that being said, I think it’s pretty clear that the defense lost this game for the Bills. The offense--despite giving up sacks, committing penalties, overthrown receivers and dropped balls--averaged 28 yards per drive. That’s enough time for the defense to have a chance to catch their collective breath and to, at the least, flip field position. The defense allowed an abysmal 60% conversion rate on 3^rd down and 50% on 4^th down. Unlike games in previous years, the offense didn’t leave the defense hanging: the defense did that almost all by itself. (As an aside, George Wilson gets my game ball for biggest idiot. I thought it was beyond stupid for him to hold up his fist on 4^th down when his team was getting clobbered and the Cardinals were moving essentially at will. Help out the refs when you’re winning or, at the very least, still in the game, goober.) Moving on…

Watching the game I thought the Cardinals blitzed far more often than they did. Would you believe they only blitzed on 7 of 31 (19.4%) of pass plays? It certainly seemed like they sent a lot more guys when I watched the game on Sunday afternoon. They generated pressure with 4 guys and did it largely by stunting. I think we can count on seeing the Chargers engage in the same sort of tactics next Sunday. Given that the Cardinals had as much, if not more, success stunting towards the right side of the offensive line as they did the left I don’t think we can hang this on Peters’ selfish actions this summer. It’s a problem that extends beyond any individual lineman.

As I suspected they would, the Cardinals stacked the box often. On 9 of 17 (52.9%) of run plays the Cardinals had at least 8 guys in the box. The Bills ran for 6 (!) yards on those 9 plays, or 0.7 yards per attempt. That’s beyond terrible. On the other 8 plays? 67 yards or 8.4 yards per attempt. Maybe it’s just wishful thinking, but I am expecting the Bills QB to check out of runs where San Diego has 8 in the box. Even with a FB/HB in the backfield and a TE on the line that leaves the Bills 1 blocker short. Turk needs to come up with some creative passes out of that formation when the box is stacked. We saw one against the Rams and Schouman picked up an important first down. Let’s hope Turk has more of those up his sleeves.

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