Buffalo Bills (5-1) at Miami Dolphins (2-4)
Sunday, October 26, 2008 1PM EDT

Since the Buffalo Bills and the Miami Dolphins have played each other plenty over the years, I decided to revisit the last 3 year as opposed to the last 5 games. Over that span the Bills have won 5 of 6 and 4 in a row.

October 9, 2005: Bills 20, Dolphins 14 (in Buffalo)
The Bills scored 17 unanswered points to start the game and hung on to win. The Dolphins commit 18 penalties for 102 yards in this one, which surely helped Kelly Holcomb pull out the win.

December 4, 2005: Dolphins 24, Bills 23 (in Miami)
Tough loss here.  The Bills jumped out to a 21-point lead on the strength of 3 J.P. Losman-to-Lee Evans touchdowns. The Bills offense then proceeds to go and hide. The Dolphins score 21 fourth quarter points, capped by a Sage Rosenfels-to-Chris Chambers 4-yard TD pass with six seconds on the clock.

September 17, 2006: Bills 16, Dolphins 6 (in Miami)
J.P. threw for a whopping 83 yards, but the Bills played solid defense, sacking Dante Culpepper 7 times and pulling off an early season upset of the heavily favored Dolphins. This game marks the start of the down turn for the Dolphins.

December 17, 2006: Bills 21, Dolphins 0 (in Buffalo)
The Bills finished off the season sweep of the Dolphins with a shut-out. The Bills only gave up 6 points to the Dolphins all year! J.P. Losman tossed 3 TDs, 1 each to Robert Royal, Josh Reed, and Lee Evans.

November 11, 2007: Bills 13, Dolphins 10 (in Miami)
The Bills were losing 10 -2 heading into the fourth quarter, the only points coming on a Chris Kelsay safety. The Bills scored 11 points in the final stanza, including a Rian Lindell FG with :46 left on the clock to pull out the win. Rumblings recap.

December 9, 2007: Bills 38, Dolphins 17 (in Buffalo)
Robert Royal and Lee Evans each caught 2 TD passes from then-rookie Trent Edwards.  John Beck practically handed George Wilson a TD and the Bills roll in an easy victory. Rumblings recap.

Reed could be in for a big game against San Diego (Associated Press)

What's the secret to being - and beating - a good football team?  The answers are varied, and depend largely on circumstance.  Therefore, considering the circumstances of this weekend's matchup between the Buffalo Bills and San Diego Chargers - good weather, an inconsistent Bills rushing attack, and a highly potent Chargers offense - there's an easy way for the Bills to be, and beat, a good football team on Sunday.

Do unto San Diego what Arizona killed you with.

Buffalo needs to keep the ball out of San Diego's hands for as long as possible.  The Chargers are susceptible to being controlled in this area of the game - in fact, they've held the ball for at least 30 minutes in just two of the six games they've played this season.  They're 2-0 in those games, and 1-3 in all other contests.  The Bills have a golden opportunity to continue that trend against San Diego.  They should do it through the air.

Ball control via air, not ground
When the Bills dropped a 41-17 decision to the Arizona Cardinals in Week 5, Buffalo should have noticed that the Cardinals were providing them with the offensive blueprint that could allow the Bills to handle the Chargers.  They controlled the clock, and thus the flow of the game, through the air.

Kurt Warner completed a whopping 33 of 42 passes, none of them for a gain longer than 18 yards.  That plan, coupled with efficiency in the red zone (Warner threw two touchdowns, and Edgerrin James and Tim Hightower rushed for three more), allowed the Cardinals to wear out the Bills' defense simply by keeping them on the field.  That opened up the Cards' ground game - which pounded out 113 yards on the day - and the efficiency allowed the Cardinals to chew up over 36 minutes of possession.

The formula worked to perfection.  The Bills have the pieces in place to execute such a scheme.  For a plethora of reasons, the Bills should make every effort to employ it in just over two days' time.  That type of attack has been a weakness for the Chargers for its first six games this season.

Controlling San Diego
The way to beat the Chargers isn't to "pressure Philip Rivers" or "shut down LaDainian Tomlinson" or "contain Antonio Gates".  The key to beating those three - along with the other explosive offensive weapons the Chargers possess - is to keep the ball out of their hands.  For as long as possible.  The ball control passing game does just that.

The Bills have struggled to run the ball.  So have the Cardinals.  They used a controlled passing game - with enough runs thrown in to keep the Bills honest - to open up their own rushing attack later in the fourth quarter.  The Bills have diverse weapons at running back, so the duo of Marshawn Lynch and Fred Jackson should be emphasized in each facet of the game.  They can contribute to a controlled passing attack, as can Josh Reed, James Hardy and - yes - even Lee Evans.

Trent Edwards' health is paramount.  Getting the ball out of his hands quickly increases his chances of survival.  It also reduces the pressure on Buffalo's pass protection, which has struggled.  And hey - if the Chargers decide to sit on the short game, it's their loss.  The Bills can beat them deep with a certain Mr. Evans and his 27 yards per catch.

Being scared of San Diego
Bills fans, for the most part, like to err on the side of caution.  Thus, when we look at the Chargers, we tend to mess ourselves a little when we see names like Rivers, Tomlinson, Gates and Chambers.  It's not unwarranted - clearly, San Diego has an explosive offense.

What gets lost in the shuffle of "ooo-ing" and "ahh-ing" over San Diego's weapons is the fact that the Bills match up very well with San Diego in the remaining two phases of the game, particularly when we have the ball.  In reality, San Diego's offense is the wild card of this game - and Buffalo's defense certainly has its hands full.  But so does San Diego's defense and special teams.

Don't forget the East Coast advantage.  Don't forget that the Chargers are crossing the Atlantic after this game.  But most especially, don't forget the most important factor of Sunday's contest - the Chargers have team weaknesses that the Bills are equipped to exploit.  Taking into account the raucous crowd that is sure to be at The Ralph this Sunday, I'm unusually confident that the Bills are going to find a way to pull out a W.  Call me crazy (and I'm coming close to doing it myself) - but if the Bills can control the flow of the game off the arm of Mr. Edwards, their chances of winning are quite good.

Mitchell, blitzers must be effective Sunday (buffalobills.com)

SB Nation completed the NFL wing of its blog section this past September when we announced the launch of our new Chargers blog, Bolts from the Blue.  So, naturally, I am pretty excited to introduce all y'all Rumblers to DaBolts, the upstanding fellow who heads up the BFTB project.

DaBolts has spent the first six weeks of the 2008 NFL regular season watching one of the most spectacularly inconsistent teams in the NFL.  The Chargers are coming off of a 30-10 pounding of the New England Patriots, however, and appear closer to hitting their stride offensively.  I asked (or tried to, at least) some tough questions of DaBolts about his Chargers.  He didn't flinch, and he didn't gloat.  Here's what he had to say about his team and their upcoming matchup with our Bills.

Buffalo Rumblings: The Chargers haven't won a game in the Eastern time zone since the 2006 season, when, ironically, they scraped by the Bills 24-21.  Their losing streak on the east coast has now reached three games, and they've won just two of six since the start of the '06 season.  How big a factor was the cross-country trip in those performances?  Do you see it continuing to be problematic this Sunday?

DaBolts, BFTB: I'm agnostic on the time change theory.  At least two of those losses were against an excellent Patriots team, and the Dolphins showed up ready to play.  Is it a factor?  Perhaps. I flew to Boston on business recently and have to admit a bit of fog, but the reality is that it is always tough to play on the road in the NFL and the Bolts have not played well enough to win.  I hate to admit it but the Dolphins just seemed hungrier to win that game.  If it is an issue, I don't see why the Chargers aren't heading out there a day or two earlier to allow for the time adjustment; I notice the Pats just stayed out West after beating the 49ers; they still came out flat.

Buffalo Rumblings: LaDainian Tomlinson's stats are down.  Clearly, he's not on the decline, but that hyper-extended toe of his is certainly causing some production problems.  How vital is it for Tomlinson to get back to his usual statistically dominant self?  Are the Chargers a legitimate Super Bowl contender if he continues to be hampered by this injury?

DaBolts, BFTB: Great question.  It's vital to get a running game back.  We just missed trading for Michael Bush out of Oakland for a second day draft choice.  Unless we come up with a coherent running game I don't believe we will go deep into the playoffs.  We have one of our posters who calculates success rates per Football Outsiders; against the Patriots only 4 of 28 running plays were 'successful'.  Near the end of the game a power running game that chewed clock would have put it away earlier.  We are one of the worst teams on time of possession despite putting up a lot of points for just this reason; this puts a lot of stress on our defense.

Some are questioning whether we should be giving more touches to Darren Sproles and Jacob Hester while LT is out; I tend to agree with that.  LT is making a good try, but he clearly is off his game.  The attempt to trade for another running back also bespeaks a lack of confidence in Hester that isn't encouraging.  The offensive line has battled injuries early; the other hope is that they start doing a better job opening up the lanes.  The lack of running game isn't all in the backs.

Buffalo Rumblings: San Diego's passing attack has been lethal this season.  Philip Rivers is the league's highest-rated passer and has already thrown 14 touchdowns this season, a category he leads alongside Tony Romo.  Is there a weakness to Rivers' game and the Chargers' passing attack overall?

Continue reading this post »

I've had enough talk of Marshawn Lynch for the time being; here to help change the subject are the three fine AFC East bloggers we chat with each week in our fourth installment of "Around the AFC East".  This week's festivities wrap up as we chat with Matty I, head blogger over at The Phinsider.

    The Dolphins have completely overhauled their receiving corps since last season; former starters Chris Chambers and Marty Booker are no longer with the team.  Can the duo of Ted Ginn and Ernest Wilford do enough to replace those guys, or will your young starting quarterback be looking for more help?

    The Phinsider: Well, I think the first thing I should mention is that being more productive than Chris Chambers and Marty Booker really isn't that much of a challenge.  In 2006, their last full season as teammates in Miami, they combined for 114 receptions, 1424 yards, and 10 touchdowns.  Hardly tough numbers to beat.  While I'm not as confident that the starting two receivers in 2008 will combine for 10+ touchdowns, I wouldn't bet against them eclipsing both the receptions and yards totals.

But here's the thing.  I'm confident that Ted Ginn will become a very good receiver; likely never great, but very good.  And I don't think that a 60-70 reception season with 900-1,000 yards is too much of a reach for him in 2008 (contingent upon at least average QB play).  Ginn's reportedly having a very solid off-season, is becoming a better route runner, and is becoming more aggressive.  That should be good enough if you combine that with his speed and hands (he really impressed me with his reliable hands in 2007; I counted just 1 drop for him last year).  And new WR coach, Karl Dorrell says of Ginn, "there is no question the skill is there for Ginn to be a legitimate No. 1 receiver.  He's very smooth, quick, has good feet. He has all the tools to be a great player. He knows he needs to be a bigger factor in what we do."

The other starting receiver spot will likely be, like you said, Ernest Wilford.  And Wilford has been very impressive if you trust mini-camp and OTA reports from the media.  His great size and terrific hands is just what this offense needs.  He's also a big, physical red-zone target for whoever the QB will be, which is something the Dolphins have lacked for years.  But don't sleep on Derek Hagan.  If the man can just catch the ball with more consistency, he can be a decent #3 wide receiver.  Concentration has always been an issue with Derek, though, since he entered the league.  However, early reports are that he's catching the ball well in practice.  If that can translate to more consistency in games, then I think our top 3 receivers in '08 will be an upgrade over '07. 

After the top 3, though, I get very worried.  But that's a discussion for another time.

Anyone else notice that, outside of New England, the wide receivers/passing attacks in the AFC East are pretty awful?  We're well aware of our issues; the Jets struggled with only Laveranues Coles as a main target; and the Dolphins were worse than both of those attacks combined.

With that said, while I don't think the Dolphins have a receiving threat that will scare the opposition (offensively, anyway - it's a different story with Ginn on special teams), I like the mix of talents that Parcells, Ireland & Co. have put together in their top three of Ginn, Wilford and Hagan.  There's speed, there's physicality and size, and there's the ability to move the chains.  But all three will have to be on their game week in and week out for the Dolphins to have a solid passing attack, and with Ginn's inexperience, I don't see that happening too often.

That wraps up another edition of Around the AFC East.  If you'd like to get back to talking about a certain Mr. Lynch now, you're more than welcome to.