Cassel, Pats run over hapless Bills (Associated Press)

For the third consecutive week, the Buffalo Bills dropped a key divisional game against a solid AFC East rival.  A 20-10 loss to the New England Patriots is Buffalo's fourth loss in their last five games, and leaves them at the bottom of the division less than a month after leading it.

The Bills committed two more turnovers in an abysmal offensive effort that negated solid efforts by Buffalo's defense and special teams.  Left on the field for far too long, Buffalo's defense eventually broke, allowing the Patriots to chew up over 37 minutes of possession time, 144 rushing yards and all of the momentum in this one.  The Bills only lost by 10, but it could have been much, much worse than that - and it probably should have been.

Offense plays terribly
Trent Edwards threw two more interceptions today, and not even a late garbage-time touchdown pass to James Hardy could elevate his QB rating above a paltry 52.8.  He completed 14 of 23 passes for just 120 yards, with the score and two picks.  Once again, Edwards struggled without a solid running game - the Bills rushed for 60 yards on the day, doubling the pathetic 30 they picked up against the Jets last week - and was erratic while enduring a steady Patriots pass rush.  This was easily Edwards' worst performance as a pro; the stats don't tell the whole story.  Buffalo got nothing going offensively.

The predictability of Buffalo's offense is laughable.  One of my key areas of focus tomorrow while reviewing film is going to be putting a percentage to the number of times Edwards throws from under center.  We've seen this predictability before; the fact that it remains an issue is, quite frankly, absurd.

Marshawn Lynch fought hard for the 46 rushing yards he did pick up (averaging 3.3 yards per carry).  Roscoe Parrish was the team's leading receiver with 4 catches for 31 yards; Lee Evans had just 2 receptions for 22 yards in what was easily his worst performance of the season as well.  Teams continue to focus on negating Evans, and it's working wonders.

D, Special Teams keep it close... for a while
While getting no help from the offense, Buffalo's defense and special teams kept this game competitive into the fourth quarter.  The D held the Patriots to just a field goal after Edwards' first interception, and forced a fumble on a Matt Cassel sack after Trent's second pick.  Allowing just 3 points off of turnovers allowed the Bills to stay alive - or, rather, it would have if the offense wasn't playing so terribly.

In the end, however, Buffalo was once again unable to get off the field in the fourth quarter, allowing the Patriots to chew up over 9 minutes of game clock in the fourth quarter.  The Patriots converted 11 of 18 third downs, Cassel scrambled for 22 yards and a score, and rookie undrafted free agent BenJarvus Green-Ellis picked up 105 yards and a score on the day.

Leodis McKelvin's 85-yard kickoff return late in the game, along with a strong punting effort from Brian Moorman (four punts downed inside New England's 20) highlighted an excellent special teams effort by the Bills.  The team also did well containing top-flight Patriots returners Ellis Hobbs, Wes Welker and Kevin Faulk.

Three big games coming up
The Bills fell flat on their faces in the toughest stretch of their schedule, and now sit at 0-3 in the division.  The team now plays three very winnable games in a row - at home against Cleveland on Monday Night, at Kansas City, and at home against San Francisco.  Needless to say, anything less than 3 wins in that stretch would likely relegate the Bills to also-ran status in the AFC - if they're not there already.

Game balls
There were some contenders, but a Bills loss negates the need to reward anyone.  If you're looking to hand out "anti-game balls", come on down, Turk Schonert, Trent Edwards and Dick Jauron.  (Yes, I said it.)

Roll Call
Thanks to ALL 34 folks who joined me in today's game thread, and props once again to WABillsFan who paced us all with a healthy 145 comments.

Ron From NM, StuckInNJ, taskersd, silverstreak3k, WABillsfan, BuffaloBrewed, Slimmons, SebastianPruiti, thatguy34, MonStarr_716, fletcherjd, D.O., NJBillsfan, Thronsen, BeastMode, ccthemovieman, keuka121, TheK-GunNeedsReloaded, Kumario!, bullruns, krytime, Cinga, keysh67, NJBill, geno227, Memphisbillsfan, jdol1568, Gino Parilli, TheAfghanTwilight, Hopefulcynic, Kurupt, chaosthepitbull, bflobob8, savedbychrist

  
Buffalo Bills (5-3) at New England Patriots (5-3)
Sunday, November 9, 1:00 PM EST - Gillette Stadium

After a second consecutive divisional loss, the Bills look to rebound in their personal house of horrors this week.  Going into Gillette Stadium wounded and on the down slope, the Bills need to find a way to play better than they have and win this extremely important divisional game.  Here's how they can do so:

Don't play scared and soft: For years now, it has appeared the Bills have gone into the majority of their Patriots' games expecting to lose.  They've come out and been manhandled instead imposing any sort of will in the games.  They've sat back and let the Pats kick them in the stomach.  Well, Tom Brady isn't walking through that door any time soon, so now is the time for the Bills to stick it to the Pats.  They can't come out and look like the same scared bundle of nerves that we've seen in the past.  Dick Jauron has to get these guys fired up and ready to punch back at the Patriots.  Take a page from the Dolphins' book here, play physical and tough.

Run the ball:  It just seems so simple, yet so difficult for the Bills this year.  Turk Schonert has to find ways to get this offense moving on the ground.  That probably includes more runs off tackle and to the outside, and fewer runs behind center.  Get the ball to Lynch and Jackson in space!  Whether he will stick with the run game this week depends on how well we can run it early.  Our offense is much easier to stop when we don't run it well.  It's also time for the high paid OL to start playing better.  It's been WAY too long.  It will be a tough task this week against a good New England front 7.

Lee Evans:  Here's your weekly reminder, get Evans the ball.  Going up against the corpse of Deltha O'Neal and rookies Jonathan Wilhite and Terrence Wheatley, Evans should have plenty of opportunities this week.  This is the perfect week for Evans to finally have a good game against the Pats.  We desperately need it now.  We also need James Hardy and Roscoe Parrish to step up in a big way this week.  A Hardy coming out party would be much appreciated.

Protect the rock:  Enough with the turnovers, Trent.  Hang on to the ball and put some points on the board.  We aren't winning this week with another 3 turnover game.  Not only does Edwards have to play better, but the OL needs to protect him much better than it has.  The Pats will be coming after him, so this is an area of importance again.

Disrupt Wes Welker:  With Matt Cassel's affiniity for throwing underneath and finding Welker, it's going to be important to disrupt their timing and stick with Welker.  Whether it's Reggie Corner or Leodis McKelvin matched up against him inside, they need to play up on him and make his release difficult.  If Welker can get off the line without a problem, he should be able to scour the middle and kill us underneath.  We can't let Cassel sit back and hit the underneath stuff like that.  By disrupting his timing and playing up on Welker, we've got to make Cassel do things he's not accustomed to. 

Find a pass rush, please:  Cassel is still a young QB that is extremely inexperienced, even after 7 starts.  He's been sacked a ton this year and that needs to continue this week if we want to shut down their offense.  I want to see the Bills pressuring and harassing Cassel, forcing him into mistakes instead of letting him sit there and hit his check-downs.  Again, this will fall into the "don't play soft" key...

Make a play on Special Teams:  They haven't been that special this year, but the talent and coaching is still there.  It's time we see a huge return again, and this would be the perfect week for it.  McKelvin looked better returning kicks last week, as he finally started making some cuts and utilizing his instincts more.  Roscoe has been bottled up as a punt returner since the opener, so it'd be nice to get him going again.  Of course, the defense has to force a punt from deep in the opposition's territory, something that we seemingly haven't done in a few games, at least.

Don't shoot yourself in the foot:  There have been too many mistakes the past two weeks, from missed blocks and dropped passes to turnovers and penalties.  These have to stop if we plan to beat New England.  The Dolphins and the Jets beat the Bills, but it was mostly Buffalo's doing.  New England and Bill Belicheck will definitely find ways to take advantage of any Bills mistakes.  It's time to limit those and play smarter football.  We won't be winning this week if the mistakes continue to pile up.  There needs to be better discipline by the coaches and better on-field discipline by the players.  Own up to your mistakes and quit making them!

Play with some urgency:  Against the Jets, it never seemed the team was feeling that sense of urgency they needed.  In turn, they never really got back into the game or gave themselves a chance to regain the lead.  To me, they just never seemed to feel that their backs were up against the wall.  I tend to feel that was part of the reason for so many mistakes.  Earlier in the year, against Oakland, the team really looked like they felt that urgency, and in turn responded with a comeback win.  I haven't seen that the past two weeks.  This week, facing a potential 3-game losing streak (and 4 of 5) and an 0-3 divisional record, their backs are squarely against the wall.  I want to see them come out knowing they have to win, something that just hasn't been the case recently, or in the past few years.

***

This is a tough, but very winnable game if we don't play another poor game.  We've played pretty poorly for much of the season, so it's going to take the extra effort to get it done this week.  With no Tom Brady, this is as good a chance as ever for the Bills to beat the Pats during their dynasty years.  More importantly, this is a must-win if the Bills want to win the division this year.  We also can't afford to fall to 0-3 in the division and expect to get a wildcard berth ahead of one of our divisional opponents.  Get it done Bills, this is a HUGE week and will set the stage for either another disappointing season or a potential playoff run.

   
Buffalo Bills (5-2) vs New York Jets (4-3)
Sunday, November 2 - 1:00 PM EST

Another week, another tough division battle.  After blowing a golden opportunity to really control the division last week in Miami, our Bills get a chance to get in the divisional win column against the Jets inside the raucous Ralph.  This is a crucial game in the context of the rest of the season; here are the keys to a big Bills win:

Get it going early: A fast start is something we're all hoping for, and Turk Schonert is striving for.  The play calling needs to be a tad bit more unpredictable.  The Jets are tough to run on (only 82.6 ypg), so being able to throw early will really give us a good chance to put some points on the board in the first half.  However, we can't simply abandon the run, as the Miami game may suggest, but instead vary up the run calls.  Enough with the numerous dives up the middle Turk, especially this week with big, fat Kris Jenkins and the force field that surrounds him taking on Duke Preston.  We had success against Miami off tackle and outside, two places we've been asking for more runs all season.  The Jets run the 3-4 just like Miami, so running outside away from Jenkins will be the way to get it done on the ground.  Marshawn Lynch has had very few opportunities to run to the outside this year, but every time he does, he makes something happen.  Why is this not a staple in the Offense?  Also, don't be surprised to see some more no-huddle.

Force the action defensively: Going up against Brett Favre and the gunslinger mentality, this is the perfect week to implement a ton of press coverage on the Jets' wideouts.  Favre absolutely LOVES throwing misguided passes into tight double coverage, so getting up on Laveranues Coles, Jerricho Cotchery and Chansi Stuckey will really increase the chances of getting some turnovers.  If Fewell plays Jabari Greer, Terrence McGee and Ashton Youboty 10 yards off the ball again, Favre will feast on the quick slant this week.  If teams like the Chiefs, Raiders and Bengals can play Favre tough, there's absolutely no reason we shouldn't be able to shut the Jets passing game down.  But if we sit back and wait for him to make the mistakes, we will be in for a long afternoon.  By the way, is there a better WR first name trio than Laveranues, Jerricho and Chansi in the NFL? I think not.

Win the turnover battle: Currently, the Bills turnover margin is sitting at -3, which is #23 in the NFL.  Our 2 losses have produced a whopping -7 margin (8 giveaways, just 1 takeaway), though it is debatable whether those turnovers cost us those games as 7 of them came when we were already losing.  They have obviously cost us chances to mount comebacks, but it's tough to say whether they are reasons we lost against Arizona and Miami.  Either way, the offense has to take better control of the ball, while our defense needs to step up and start forcing some turnovers.  We've only accumulated 4 ineterceptions on the season, with one coming in the last minute against Seattle.  That just isn't good, and there's no better time to pick off a few passes than when Brett Favre rolls into town.  This is one area that should really decide Sunday's winner.

Pressure Fav-ruh: Piggybacking the turnover idea, it's important to get into Favre's face and force him to throw when he's not ready.  Again, if he has time to throw and space to put it, he'll hurt us.  Getting after him with some blitzes will lead to his patented crazy throws, which should again increase the chance for turnovers.  I'm not afraid of Coles and Cotchery beating us deep, so we've got to get up on them and make Favre squeeze the passes in there quickly.  I'm not confident that this will be part of the game plan though.

Make Special Teams special again:  This has been an overlooked area of the team this year.  Quite frankly, the ST units have not lived up to their lofty expectations this year.  They have been solid, but other than the Seattle game, have been very unspectacular.  Kick coverage has been up and down, the punting unit has been mostly good but there have been mistakes (see snap last week) and the kick return team has been borderline bad.  Leodis McKelvin just doesn't look like a good kick returner out there.  He heads directly to the sideline EVERY time and rarely shows the propensity to cut back.  Maybe Bobby April is instructing him to take what he can for now, until he gets more comfortable, but this unit has been far from explosive this year.  McKelvin's instincts just haven't seemed to be there, we shall see what he develops into in the return game.  This week would be a great time for a big play.  Controlling Leon Washington in the return game is going to be another tough job for the Bills ST's this week.

Involve Evans early and often: Here's your weekly "get the ball to Lee Evans early in the game" key.  With Josh Reed out, it's going to be as important as ever to get Evans involved early.  Look for the Jets to really roll coverage to him this week, so Roscoe Parrish and James Hardy will need to step up. Roscoe wants the ball more, now is the time for him to take advantage of the opportunity.

Protect the home turf:  To be honest, this is a game the Bills shouldn't lose, and probably can't afford to lose.  Starting 0-2 in the division and heading to New England is NOT what the team needs come Monday morning.  Like I thought the Chargers game might be, this game is a season definer, one that sets the stage for the rest of the year.  A loss here with a tough game at New England next week is really not the downward spiral I want to see occur.  If we win this week, to finish the first half 6-2, we will be in great shape going forward, but another divisional loss, at home no less, would really put a damper on where this team might be headed.  Luckily, the rest of the AFC is a jumbled mess, but it'd be nice to rise above that quagmire.  I'd much rather head to New England next week with 6 wins and at worse, a share of the divisional lead with them.  I don't want to be a game back or in a 3 way tie including the Jets at 5-3.  Rise up Buffalo, it's time you win a big game against a team with a winning record for once!

***

Let's go Bills, dispose of the New York Bretts!  Make my daily life in NYC merrier!

Reed could be in for a big game against San Diego (Associated Press)

What's the secret to being - and beating - a good football team?  The answers are varied, and depend largely on circumstance.  Therefore, considering the circumstances of this weekend's matchup between the Buffalo Bills and San Diego Chargers - good weather, an inconsistent Bills rushing attack, and a highly potent Chargers offense - there's an easy way for the Bills to be, and beat, a good football team on Sunday.

Do unto San Diego what Arizona killed you with.

Buffalo needs to keep the ball out of San Diego's hands for as long as possible.  The Chargers are susceptible to being controlled in this area of the game - in fact, they've held the ball for at least 30 minutes in just two of the six games they've played this season.  They're 2-0 in those games, and 1-3 in all other contests.  The Bills have a golden opportunity to continue that trend against San Diego.  They should do it through the air.

Ball control via air, not ground
When the Bills dropped a 41-17 decision to the Arizona Cardinals in Week 5, Buffalo should have noticed that the Cardinals were providing them with the offensive blueprint that could allow the Bills to handle the Chargers.  They controlled the clock, and thus the flow of the game, through the air.

Kurt Warner completed a whopping 33 of 42 passes, none of them for a gain longer than 18 yards.  That plan, coupled with efficiency in the red zone (Warner threw two touchdowns, and Edgerrin James and Tim Hightower rushed for three more), allowed the Cardinals to wear out the Bills' defense simply by keeping them on the field.  That opened up the Cards' ground game - which pounded out 113 yards on the day - and the efficiency allowed the Cardinals to chew up over 36 minutes of possession.

The formula worked to perfection.  The Bills have the pieces in place to execute such a scheme.  For a plethora of reasons, the Bills should make every effort to employ it in just over two days' time.  That type of attack has been a weakness for the Chargers for its first six games this season.

Controlling San Diego
The way to beat the Chargers isn't to "pressure Philip Rivers" or "shut down LaDainian Tomlinson" or "contain Antonio Gates".  The key to beating those three - along with the other explosive offensive weapons the Chargers possess - is to keep the ball out of their hands.  For as long as possible.  The ball control passing game does just that.

The Bills have struggled to run the ball.  So have the Cardinals.  They used a controlled passing game - with enough runs thrown in to keep the Bills honest - to open up their own rushing attack later in the fourth quarter.  The Bills have diverse weapons at running back, so the duo of Marshawn Lynch and Fred Jackson should be emphasized in each facet of the game.  They can contribute to a controlled passing attack, as can Josh Reed, James Hardy and - yes - even Lee Evans.

Trent Edwards' health is paramount.  Getting the ball out of his hands quickly increases his chances of survival.  It also reduces the pressure on Buffalo's pass protection, which has struggled.  And hey - if the Chargers decide to sit on the short game, it's their loss.  The Bills can beat them deep with a certain Mr. Evans and his 27 yards per catch.

Being scared of San Diego
Bills fans, for the most part, like to err on the side of caution.  Thus, when we look at the Chargers, we tend to mess ourselves a little when we see names like Rivers, Tomlinson, Gates and Chambers.  It's not unwarranted - clearly, San Diego has an explosive offense.

What gets lost in the shuffle of "ooo-ing" and "ahh-ing" over San Diego's weapons is the fact that the Bills match up very well with San Diego in the remaining two phases of the game, particularly when we have the ball.  In reality, San Diego's offense is the wild card of this game - and Buffalo's defense certainly has its hands full.  But so does San Diego's defense and special teams.

Don't forget the East Coast advantage.  Don't forget that the Chargers are crossing the Atlantic after this game.  But most especially, don't forget the most important factor of Sunday's contest - the Chargers have team weaknesses that the Bills are equipped to exploit.  Taking into account the raucous crowd that is sure to be at The Ralph this Sunday, I'm unusually confident that the Bills are going to find a way to pull out a W.  Call me crazy (and I'm coming close to doing it myself) - but if the Bills can control the flow of the game off the arm of Mr. Edwards, their chances of winning are quite good.

Evans (left), receivers more productive in '08 (buffalobills.com)

In 2007, the Buffalo Bills fielded one of their worst offensive units in team history.  En route to a 7-9 record, the Bills shuffled quarterbacks and scored just 20 touchdowns in what was, statistically, a mediocre season on just about every level.

Fast forward to 2008.  Trent Edwards has settled the Bills' instability at quarterback by emerging as a legitimate NFL starter with tons of potential.  But that's been the only major change.  Even with very little personnel turnover (rookie WR James Hardy was the only significant off-season import for the unit), the turnaround that Buffalo's offense has made has been surprising - and even more surprising, the biggest strides have come in the passing department.

The Bills have improved in just about every major statistical category offensively, most importantly in points scored (the Bills are averaging 25.2 points per game this season, up from 15.8 in 2007).  Yet despite the significant strides made, there's still room for improvement.

Quarterbacks making each play count
We're all aware of how well Edwards has played.  He's the most exciting Bills player in quite some time, at least in terms of the excitement he engenders for future prospects of the organization.  But even J.P. Losman, filling in for Edwards for a game, has jumped in on the statistical prowess.

A quarterback's effectiveness is best measured in yards per attempt.  In 2007, Bills passing plays averaged 6.39 yards per passing attempt - a mediocre number that reflects the team's inability to make big plays through the air.  That number has skyrocketed to 8.24 yards per attempt in 2008, as the Bills have made more plays downfield and have gotten much more from their receivers in run-after-catch yardage.

Bills quarterbacks - yes, even Losman - are distributing the ball effectively and letting their receivers make plays.  It's not an elite development, but it's clearly a step in the right direction.  (Get well soon, Trent.)

Receiver production up
The Bills took some heat when their only significant upgrade to a mediocre receiving corps was the rookie Hardy, whose impact has been minimal through the first five games of his inaugural season.  Effective quarterback play, however, has turned this "mediocre" receiving corps into a bunch of playmakers.

In 2007, the Bills' top four receivers (basically, swap Peerless Price for Hardy) combined for 148 receptions, 1,847 yards and just six scores.  The touchdowns were most concerning, but 2008 is different - Bills receivers have already nabbed four scores this season, and more are on the horizon.  If statistical trends continue for the remainder of this season, Bills receivers will see increases in receptions (projected 157), yards (2,483) and touchdowns (13).

Lee Evans and Josh Reed have been the go-to guys.  Evans is currently averaging 27 yards per reception, second in the league for players with 10 or more receptions.  Reed's production has been a bit more surprising; in line for a career year, Reed has become the go-to-guy on third down.  14 of Reed's team-leading 21 receptions (67%) have created first downs; Evans has added 14 more on his 16 receptions (87.5%).

Running backs getting involved, too

One of the more noticeable differences between 2007 and 2008 has been the involvement of running backs in the passing game.  Offensive Coordinator Turk Schonert promised to emphasize the talents of Marshawn Lynch and Fred Jackson as receivers, and he's delivered in a big way.

In 2007, Bills running backs caught 55 passes - and that total includes the 15 hauled in by the now-departed Anthony Thomas.  Lynch and Jackson have already hit the half-way point of that total this season, as they've combined to catch 29 balls.  That puts the duo on pace to catch 93 passes this season, a very high number for any running back duo in today's NFL.

Where to improve: tight ends and pass protection
It's been great that Buffalo's running backs have been playing the role of safety valve, because the Bills have seen a drop-off in production from the tight end position.  Sure, Robert Royal has increased his production (he's on pace to outstrip his 2007 reception total by 17), but the position has dropped off as a whole.  Bills tight ends caught 56 passes in 2007; they've got just 15 this season.  The return of rookie Derek Fine from injury likely won't help balloon those stats.  Lynch and Jackson have picked up the slack, but the lack of a threat down the seam still hinders this team.

The biggest hindrance, however, has been pass protection.  The Bills aren't throwing much more than they did in 2007, surprisingly, yet the excellent pass protection that Bills quarterbacks enjoyed last season has been MIA.  Bills quarterbacks were sacked 26 times in '07, or less than twice per game.  In just five games this season, Bills quarterbacks have been sacked 16 times; if that pace continues, the Bills will likely surrender double their '07 sack total (52).  That's not good news for Edwards and his concussion, nor for the still-highly-unreliable Losman.

Even considering these issues, there's far more promise to Buffalo's aerial attack this year than we saw in 2007.  The difference has been night and day, and it's been reflected in the team's overall performance.  Don't expect the tight ends to produce more than their current clip; we can be a bit more optimistic about the pass protection given the bye week.  In the end, it all comes down to the quarterback, however; the emergence of Edwards, with an assist from Schonert, has turned an awful Bills passing game into, in reality, an excellent one.

This is what we're forced to do when the Buffalo Bills are heading toward a bye week: link dump posts.  This isn't your ordinary link dump, however; we've actually got some fascinating and interesting stuff to pass your way this afternoon.  On to the Bills news!

   I know that there are a ton of Paul Posluszny fans out there - I'm admittedly and unashamedly one of them - and, as such, I thought it prudent to ask you to check out Poz's brand new website!  Poz writes a journal each week, answers your questions and has some great stuff in his online store!  Be sure to sign up on his site so you can get up to date information on upcoming autograph signings involving Poz, the next of which takes place on November 15.

   Speaking of brand new websites, the Bills themselves have rolled out a shiny new BuffaloBills.com.  Obviously I'm a bit biased, but boy, do I think that structure is an improvement.  The home ship looks fantastic.

   Yes, QB Trent Edwards has started missing practices as he recovers from his concussion.  Langston Walker, however, gives us some great perspective as to how the quarterback is doing:

"He was a little woozy but his hair was perfect," tackle Langston Walker said of his conversation with Edwards. "That’s one thing. If Trent’s hair was off, I’d be worried. But his hair was on point."

   Meanwhile, Sal Maiorana of the Democrat and Chronicle very astutely points out that J.P. Losman isn't completely at fault for the team's offensive struggles in Arizona.  Maiorana is right - the offense has been good, but it needs to be better.

   Aaron Schobel made his "it's about more than just sacks" speech again yesterday.  I've defended Schobel in the past and still believe he's an excellent player, but come on, Aaron - you just got handled by Mike Gandy.  Mike. Gandy.  That's not going to fly.

   If you're looking for some good non-Bills reading this afternoon, Stampede Blue has you covered.  BigBlueShoe, SB Nation's Colts blogger, recently held an in-depth conversation with former NFL offensive lineman Tony Mandarich.  It's a high-quality read about a pretty interesting former player; transcript is here if you're interested.

I know you don't want to re-live it; I didn't much enjoy it myself.  But in my desperate search to find someone to blame, and thus loathe, in regards to Trent Edwards' concussion suffered in Sunday's loss, the following analysis proves that the blame may lie on the shoulders of an unsatisfactory player.  Rumblers, it's our first ever Paint Analysis - and if you like the glorious crappiness of this exercise, perhaps it could become a more regular feature...

The Situation
Buffalo ball, 3rd and 6, BUF 30, early first quarter

* Buffalo comes out in a three-wide set.  Edwards (5) is in the shotgun with Marshawn Lynch (23) to his left.
* Arizona counters with a dime look - three corners, three safeties.  Adrian Wilson (24) is lined up essentially in no-man's land; it's apparent that he's going to do as he pleases on this play.
* Hardy comes in motion, eventually settling to the right and slightly behind Robert Royal (84).  Simultaneously, Chike Okeafor (56) and Karlos Dansby (58) cheat up to the line of scrimmage, and Wilson comes up to, apparently, take Hardy in the slot.  Everything the Cardinals are doing to this point screams "blitz up the gut", including Wilson's actions.  The Cards appear to be playing man in the slots behind this blitz.  Appearances, as it turns out, can be deceiving.
* Other relevant notes: Eric Green (25) is lined up across Josh Reed (82) in the slot; Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie (29) and Antrel Rolle (21) have Lee Evans (83) bracketed on the left side of the formation; Aaron Francisco (47) and Roderick Hood (26) are clearly in a zone shell behind Wilson.

The Snap

* Surprise!  Arizona's blitzing, but it's from the edges.  Dansby (58) and Okeafor (56) drop off into zone coverage, and Green (25) and Wilson (24) blitz off the edges.
* The actions of Arizona's defensive linemen make this play.  LaBoy (55) and Antonio Smith (94) rush on the interior, pinching the Bills' line into an even more tight-knit group.  It's compounded by the disguised interior blitz.  As a result, there's a pileup, and Langston Walker ends up assisting on Smith when he really didn't need to.  Wilson runs by unscathed.
* Marshawn (23) easily picks up Green, the other edge rusher.
* Reed (82) and Royal (84) are essentially decoys for the guy running the hot route, Hardy (81).  Reed draws coverage from the dropping Dansby.  Okeafor, meanwhile, is stuck in no-man's land between Hardy and Royal, who run an excellent route combination on the converted defensive end.  The problem, however, is two-fold: Hardy doesn't run it quick enough, and Wilson's untouched.
* Edwards reads the blitz and immediately knows Hardy is his guy.  Kid's sharp as a tack.  Here comes Wilson, however...

The Hit

* Trent starts drifting backwards, waiting for the Hardy/Royal route combination to develop.  He makes the throw quickly; the ball is out a split second before Hardy turns his head.  The problem is, Edwards has to hold the ball a touch longer than he'd like, and he ends up throwing the ball off his back foot.  He's essentially ripe for Wilson's picking.
* Edwards delivers the first down throw, but at an awful expense.  Wilson hits high to try to knock the ball out; Edwards is too quick on the draw, but Wilson hits under Trent's shoulder and drives his helmet - in a non-dirty fashion; it has more to do with momentum than anything - up into Edwards' chin.
* As the pair go down, the back of Edwards' helmet hits the turf first.  He's very clearly going to have a sore neck and a rung bell.  Wilson - mostly because of Edwards' drifting and his own explosiveness - drives through Edwards and lands on the quarterback with his full body weight.  If Wilson gets fined, it'll be because of this last detail - he wasn't playing dirty, as many Bills fans have unfairly claimed.

The Aftermath

Where should the blame lie?  It's spread out a bit; part of it is on a great blitz scheme by Clancy Pendergast, part of it is on Langston Walker for pinching in when he should have fanned out and tried to knock Wilson off course (though, admittedly, he wouldn't have had much time to do this), and part of it on Edwards for being a smart, gritty, loveable guy.

Will Wilson get suspended?  Almost certainly not.  Will he get fined?  If he does, it won't be for a large amount, and it shouldn't be; it won't be for a dirty hit, either.  If Wilson has to pay up, it'll be because he landed on Edwards with all of his weight.  My guess?  Wilson won't get fined, either, and he probably shouldn't.  He was just playing football.

The good news: Edwards is reportedly doing well - or, rather, about as well as can be expected at this point.  With the bye week upon us, Edwards has plenty of time to shake off the cobwebs, get plenty of sleep, take a little vacation and get ready for San Diego.  It's far too early to speculate on his availability for that game, but to this point, signs are far more encouraging than they are discouraging.  Get well soon, Trent.

Here are my offensive line notes from the Bills' win over the Rams.  It may be hard to believe but this is even longer than the post I did for the Raiders game...

Drive 1

Pass 1: 49 yards to Evans
Run 1: 20 yards by Lynch (negated by holding call) left B gap
- Peters was flagged for holding. While Brian thought it was a crappy call, Peters was, in fact, holding.  He had his right hand in the DE’s jersey arm hole.  He used his hold to keep the DE from turning and chasing down Lynch. While it didn’t appear that the DE was going to be able to catch Lynch without the hold, a hold it was and it killed the play.
- Dock put 95 down.
- Fowler pulled and stuffed/locked up 1 filling LB (Schouman took out the other) which helped spring Lynch for the run.
- Butler kept the DT turned away from the play.
- Walker pulled and did no particular good.
Pass 2: 6 yards to Lynch
Pass 3: Overthrow to Hardy (Edwards had him for a first down but simply missed)
- Lynch gave a pretty weak effort at chipping Peters’ guy.
Pass 4: 9 yards to Lynch
- At first blush I thought that Peters had killed the drive based on his holding penalty.  However, on closer review Edwards gets the blame as he could have had the first down with an accurate pass to Hardy.  The drive ended in a field goal.

Drive 1: 0 blitzes, 0 stacks

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RB Lynch sees role change slightly (buffalobills.com)

To say that the Buffalo Bills have "improved" offensively from 2007 to 2008 would be one of the biggest understatements ever recorded in human history.  Granted, it was never going to take much to improve, as Buffalo suffered through a historically bad offensive effort in 2007 - a year in which the Bills scored only 20 offensive touchdowns and ranked at or near the bottom of the league in nearly every major statistical category.

Now it's 2008, and the Bills have made improvements.  We're all aware of the reasons - namely, the rise of Turk Schonert to offensive coordinator and the maturation of second-year quarterback Trent Edwards - but the level to which the offense has risen (while still leaving a level of satisfaction to be attained) shows how dramatically different this year's version of the Buffalo Bills offense is.  The Bills played 16 games in 2007 and scored 20 touchdowns.  In three games thus far in 2008 - all wins - the Bills have scored 7.  That puts them on pace to nearly double last season's output.

Here are some themes to Buffalo's offensive resurgence.

Chunk Yardage
Picking up yardage in chunks has long been a favorite saying of head coach Dick Jauron.  Now his team's offense is actually doing it, and at an above-average level of proficiency, at least when it comes to the rest of the league.  Did you know that Edwards currently ranks fourth amongst NFL quarterbacks with 10 passing plays of 20 yards or more?  Nor did I.  The Bills may not be throwing deep, but they're making big plays in the passing game.  It's these plays that have allowed the Bills to up their yards-per-passing attempt statistic (arguably the most important at the QB position) from the 6.39 YPA they put up last season to 7.8 YPA this season.

What's even more interesting is that the Bills are picking up said chunk yardage through the air, something they simply could not do last season.  Marshawn Lynch was the team's workhorse between the twenties last year, but Lynch thus far has just one carry in which he picked up more than 20 yards.  He's being relied on more as the "tough yardage" guy in the new offense, and it's a role that he excels at - and which also inhibits some of his statistics.

Playmakers
When Schonert took the job, he said he was going to get the ball into the hands of his playmakers and let them go to work.  Boy, has he delivered on that promise to date (with 63 huge assists from Edwards); the Bills are currently on pace to field five players with 40+ receptions on the season, and a sixth could be added to that group depending on the production of Roscoe Parrish when he returns from injury.  The Bills had just two players - Lee Evans and Josh Reed - cross the 40-catch plateau last season.

In particular, Schonert has worked to get the ball into the hands of Lynch and Fred Jackson in the passing game - and it's worked.  Last season, Beast Mode and Action Jackson combined to catch 40 passes.  They're currently on pace to end the 2008 season with a combined 85.  The 16 grabs the duo have put up in three games have all been essential to Edwards and the offense, especially when it comes to moving the chains.

Lynch as "The Closer"
With such an inept passing attack last season, Lynch was counted on as the "do-everything" guy for the offense.  It's the reason he led the league in average attempts per game (21.5), and it wore him down a bit.  This season, he's only logged 71% of Buffalo's carries, with Jackson eating into some of his rushing workload (he has 21 carries to the 60 of Lynch).  The result?  Lynch has been free to do other things, particularly catch passes, and he's been effective in the fourth quarter (see the Oakland game for proof of that).

Edwards and the passing game are taking care of business between the twenties, but Lynch has now become "The Closer".  Buffalo's red zone offense was terrible last season, and the one player with a nose for the paint - Lynch - had some trouble getting there due to his heavy workload.  He scored 7 times last season; he's already notched over half of that total with 4 through three games this season, good for the second-highest total in the league.  What's more, he's doing it on big plays - of his 4 scores, three have come from outside the ten yard line (on runs of 21, 11 and 14).  Don't be fooled by his lowered yards-per-carry average (3.6) - Lynch is every bit the explosive player we saw frequent glimpses of in 2007.

The Formula = Efficiency
This isn't exactly rocket science - in fact, it's mostly common sense, something a Buffalo play-caller hasn't had in quite some time.  Schonert's instinctive play-calling has worked wonders on Buffalo's skill players, and it's led to a dramatic increase in production by Buffalo's once-inept offense.

Yet the group isn't satisfied, and they shouldn't be.  Edwards has been harder on himself than anyone has ever been on his predecessor, J.P. Losman.  They're aware that there are holes to patch up, particularly on the offensive line, whose run blocking has been questionable and pass blocking deteriorated (the group has given up 7 sacks this season).  There are still cries to get rookie receiver James Hardy more involved in the offense, a move that might now necessitated by the Parrish injury.  They'll work on it.

What matters is the competency.  No longer do the Bills have to pray for breaks for their offense.  Now the group is getting it done on their own, and they have plenty of room for growth.  That's great news in the short-term and most definitely in the long-term - and the credit goes to Schonert's formula, with some help from Edwards' development.  If this pace is kept up, Buffalo's going to win a lot more football games in 2008.

Hardy will get his chance to contribute (Associated Press)

It's been a strange sight for fans of the Buffalo Bills through the first three weeks of the 2008 regular season.  No, not just because the Bills have jumped out to a 3-0 start; that's certainly strange around these parts, but not the point here.

The point here is that for the first time in quite a long while, the Bills are playing winning football - rather, they're playing any kind of football - without large contributions from their rookies.  Sure, second-round pick WR James Hardy made an outstanding game-winning touchdown catch in the team's win over Jacksonville; yes, top pick Leodis McKelvin has made an impact as a kick returner, registering a 56-yard jaunt in this past Sunday's win over Oakland.

But the Bills' two most prominent rookies have barely played.  McKelvin has seen a handful of snaps - almost literally - as a dime back, but he hasn't recorded a stat defensively.  Hardy has two receptions for 12 yards and a score through three games, has dropped some passes, and hasn't seen a lot of field time overall.  Now, one injury - a thumb that will keep WR Roscoe Parrish out of action for 4-6 weeks - bizarrely forces the Bills to rely on both of their top draft picks to fill the void left by Parrish.

McKelvin to be primary return man
Don't be fooled by head coach Dick Jauron, who yesterday said that punt return duties could be handled by either McKelvin, running back Fred Jackson or receiver Josh Reed.  It was McKelvin who handled first-team punt return duties during the pre-season, when Parrish saw no action in that role.  It was McKelvin who, despite making a few bad decisions - one leading to a turnover in the pre-season win over Pittsburgh - also made some big plays in that role.  It was McKelvin who returned seven career punts at Troy for touchdowns.  The kid's explosive, and his forte is returning the punt.

There may be a circumstance or two where the Bills put Jackson back as more of a "punt catcher" (remember Chris Watson?), but McKelvin should and will see most of the work.  He's one of the most explosive return men to enter the league since, well, Devin Hester, and it would be a crime if the Bills kept him on the sideline.  They won't.  McKelvin's style is clearly a bit different than that of Parrish, but they're both effective, dynamic return men.  The drop-off will be minimal, but we should be wary of the rookie's decision-making back there.  (Of course, Parrish has made some questionable decisions himself.)

Hardy's role likely to expand offensively
It's Hardy, the 6'5" rookie receiver out of Indiana, that has more pressure placed squarely on his shoulders.  The team's offensive coordinator, Turk Schonert, has slowly been working Hardy into more and more offensive packages as the team has progressed through its first three games.  But we all know the history of rookie receivers - rarely do they make an impact in their first seasons.

But Hardy's not expected to carry the offense by any means.  The team will still rely on Lee Evans and Josh Reed as its two main receiving threats (just as they did when Parrish was healthy), and players such as Jackson, Robert Royal and Marshawn Lynch will likely see their roles expand in the passing game as well.  Hardy clearly won't need to fill the void alone - but when the ball comes his way, he needs to grab the opportunity.  He's got a chance to show that he can be more than a spot contributor and a red zone threat.  It'd be nice to see the rook make an impact in the middle of the field, where the Bills haven't been particularly effective throwing the ball to date.

A new era of Buffalo football
The Parrish injury, and his two young replacements, are indicative of a new era of Buffalo football.  Gone are the days when Bills rookies were thrust immediately into the starting lineup and expected to play like veterans.  Now, Buffalo's most talented youngsters are relied on as depth - something the Bills haven't had much of in recent years.  It's time for the rooks to contribute - even if it's only for a few weeks.  The Bills are fortunate that their first major injury occurred before the bye week, as it slightly lessens the impact.

So let's go, Leodis and James.  We've been anxious to see the kids get some playing time.  Now their time has arrived.