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Drive stats tell no lies: Bills need playmakers

Photo

More photos » by David Duprey - AP

Roughly a month ago, we examined the Buffalo Bills' trip through the AFC East during the 2008 season and pinpointed the not-so-difficult-to-surmise reasons that the Bills managed to win zero of their six most important games.  The verdict?  Besides the obvious - scoring points and controlling the ground game on each side of the ball, to start - a general lack of big plays was the big reason that the team was not only 0-6 in the division, but 2-8 overall in the final ten games of the season.

It's not as if we needed yet another piece of evidence to further hammer home the "Bills need more playmakers" argument, but when Football Outsiders puts forth such excellent summaries as their drive stats analysis... well, let's just say that it re-opens some old wounds.

If you're not familiar with Football Outsiders, take a moment or two to get to know them.  Trust us - it's worth it.  If you're a novice, just take a quick glance at the explanation of their drive stats and you'll know enough to be getting on with.  What follows will likely be the least surprising article you have or ever will read here; it's also further proof that, on some teams as starved for playmakers as the Bills are, signing a player as divisive as WR Terrell Owens is well worth the risk - despite what the Tom Currans of the world would have you believe.

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Ten Bills to Decide 2009, No. 7: LT Langston Walker

You probably remember a fateful day in April when the Buffalo Bills traded two-time Pro Bowl left tackle Jason Peters to the Philadelphia Eagles.  Peters, a former undrafted free agent that established himself as one of the game's rising stars at his position, cut his teeth with the Bills.  He was a big, freakish athlete coming out of Arkansas, and the Bills turned him into a dominant force.  No matter how his career ended - and it wasn't pretty, what with 11.5 sacks surrendered in 2008 and two separate contract squabbles - it's never easy to trade a player that you've crafted from NFL infancy.

Now the Bills are turning to veteran Langston Walker to fill the void.  Signed prior to the 2007 season from Oakland, Walker has spent most of his career (including both seasons in Buffalo) as a right tackle.  He has roughly two games of experience on the left side.

Walker is everything that Peters isn't.  He's a good football player, but clearly doesn't possess anywhere near the athletic prowess that Peters does.  He's also a much less dynamic personality than Peters, as he handles the media well (and provides some comic relief in the process) and isn't the type to make waves regarding his contract status.  He's a pro's pro - solid, unspectacular, and consistent to the point that he's able to mask his deficiencies, which in his case are his size and how it meshes into the athletic demands of his new position.

Clearly, Walker has big shoes to fill.  As he is protecting the blind side of QB Trent Edwards - who has missed all or part of seven games due to various injuries in his first two seasons - Walker's importance is obvious.  Without Edwards, the Bills' season is likely over, and without solid play from Walker, the chances of getting a full season out of a healthy Edwards are slim to none.

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Ten Bills to Decide 2009, No. 8: DE Aaron Maybin

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More photos » by David Duprey - AP

Earlier this month, we took a look back at the woeful sack production that the Buffalo Bills have put forth over the past two seasons.  When that piece aired, many of you astutely pointed out that the Bills' defensive issues extend beyond the ability to tackle opposing quarterbacks; the issues, instead, lie in the team's general inability to apply any sort of consistent pressure to make things happen defensively.  The best defenses in the NFL make things happen via pressure, and Buffalo's defense has been woefully inadequate in that department for the past 32 games.

Penn State DE Aaron Maybin was drafted by the Bills for a reason.  He's here to fix that problem.

For a rookie carrying as much burden as Maybin is (seriously, how many rookie defensive ends are counted on to revive an entire pass rush for a team with playoff aspirations?), he's in as solid a situation as possible given the team he was drafted to.  He won't have to start.  The Bills have three solid veterans to surround Maybin with.  But that's where the comfort level for Maybin ends.  Without an above-average rookie contribution from Maybin, not a whole lot will change for the better on the defensive side of the ball in Buffalo, and the team could very well be staring a full decade of playoff-less football in the face.

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Ten Bills to Decide 2009, No. 9: LB Kawika Mitchell

Kawika Mitchell (59, left, with ball) will continue to lead the Buffalo Bills' linebacking corps in 2009. (photo source)

Kawika Mitchell (59, left, with ball) will continue to lead the Buffalo Bills' linebacking corps in 2009. (photo source)

On Thursday, we began a series in which we examine the ten current Buffalo Bills players poised to have the biggest impact - positive or negative - on the Bills' success in the 2009 season.  We started the discussions off with RB Marshawn Lynch.  We're switching over to the defensive side of the ball for the ninth player on the list, starting weak-side linebacker Kawika Mitchell.

Mitchell, entering the second year of a five-year deal he signed last off-season, had a quietly productive first season with the Bills.  In tying for the team lead in sacks with four - which, we should note, is not a low total for a 4-3 linebacker - Mitchell became the first Bill not named Aaron Schobel to lead the team in sacks since 2000 (Marcellus Wiley).  Kawika added 82 tackles, two interceptions, two forced fumbles and three defended passes - and although he developed a reputation as an inconsistent tackler, Mitchell was a steadying presence for a Bills linebacking corps that has undergone a severe makeover over the past two off-seasons.

We know what Mitchell brings to the table from an on-field standpoint.  Mitchell's true value, however, lies in his presence in the locker room.

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Ten Bills to Decide 2009, No. 10: RB Marshawn Lynch

Photo

More photos » by David Duprey - AP

One month from today, folks, the Buffalo Bills will open 2009 training camp at St. John Fisher College in Pittsford, NY.  One month.  Hang in there.  Until that glorious day, however, we'll continue to give you plenty to ponder - not just in relation to the fantastic historical content that the staff has been pumping out recently, but in terms of the Bills team we have yet to watch, the 2009 version.

This is the start of a series in which we will examine the ten most important Bills players heading into the season.  The idea is a simple one: single out ten players that will have the most impact in deciding whether or not Buffalo can end their nine-year playoff drought this season.  We'll end the exposition here and dive right into the list.  First up - RB Marshawn Lynch.

What happens post-suspension?
Lynch, as I'm sure y'all are well aware, has been suspended by the NFL for the first three games of the season due to his gun-related off-season arrest.  Marshawn appealed the suspension on May 14, but all indications are that league commissioner Roger Goodell is leaning toward upholding Lynch's suspension.  Expect Lynch to miss the first three games of the season; it'll be surprising if that number is reduced.

Despite the suspension - and despite Buffalo's excellent depth at running back, which includes fan favorite Fred Jackson and recently signed veteran Dominic Rhodes - Lynch remains one of Buffalo's most vital offensive cogs.

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J.P. Losman, two other ex-Bills moving on to UFL

Losman will play for the UFL Las Vegas club for former Giants head coach Jim Fassel. (photo source)

Losman will play for the UFL Las Vegas club for former Giants head coach Jim Fassel. (photo source)

In April of 2004, the Buffalo Bills traded their second-round pick in the NFL Draft - as well as a first-round pick in the following year's selection meeting - to the Dallas Cowboys for the right to select Tulane QB J.P. Losman in the first round.

Flash forward 62 months.  His flash-in-the-pan career with the Bills is over, and Losman - unable to land a roster spot with another NFL team, even as a third-stringer - is moving on to the nascent United Football League.

According to UFL Access - which reported the news on Tuesday, two days prior to the UFL's premiere season draft - Losman is set to take the reigns of the league's Las Vegas franchise, head coached by former Giants coach and Ravens offensive coordinator Jim Fassel.  The UFL - which has not even provided nicknames for its four franchises at this point - is expected to announce starting quarterbacks for the four teams on July 1.

If this isn't the low point of Losman's disappointing professional career, I don't know what is.  It's not terribly uncommon to see first-round draft picks out of the league, but folks are quick to forget that as recently as 2006, Losman had the Bills fighting for playoff contention as late in the season as Week 16 while rating out as the eleventh-best quarterback in the NFL.  Since that point, he has been injured, lost his starting job to a rookie, and flamed out as a backup, checking out mentally for his final season in Buffalo.

Still, this move makes a degree of sense for Losman.

Poll
Are you interested in following J.P. Losman's UFL progress?
Yes
603 votes
No
605 votes
Undecided
46 votes

1254 votes | Poll has closed

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The Curious Case of Donte Whitner and Bills safeties

Photo

More photos » by David Duprey - AP

I have been blogging here at Buffalo Rumblings for well over two years now.  We've had a lot of ups and downs in our 26-month run, and we've had some wildly popular stories as well as some dreary ones.  Perhaps our most well-known feature here in our brief history was our January 31, 2009 story on Buffalo Bills safety Donte Whitner.

The premise of that article was a simple one: take a look at every safety drafted in the first round over the past decade, measure each player's impact as tangibly as possible, and see how Buffalo's No. 8 overall pick in the 2006 NFL Draft measured up.  The results? Well, not good.  In terms of "big plays" - a term we used loosely to cover statistical categories such as interceptions, forced and recovered fumbles, safeties, sacks, defended passes and touchdowns - Whitner ranked fourteenth of the sixteen first-round safeties drafted since 1999.

I still believe to this day that nothing in that little analysis we put together falls under the "unfair" category.  Numbers are numbers.  We have referred to Whitner as a franchise cornerstone and Buffalo's most valuable defensive back in the past, too.  If those, too, are unfair, then Buffalo's secondary - along with our nascent reputation - is in serious trouble.

Yet our little analysis seeped into the mainstream just enough that Whitner's lack of big plays - which we freely admit has been hampered by his circumstances with the team - became a huge talking point early this off-season.  Now, the topic of Whitner has resurfaced - and, naturally, we feel it's important to address it as it comes up.

Whitner ready to be safety in numbers - BuffaloBills.com
We are in no way sure if the following excerpt from venerable Bills journalist Chris Brown was aimed at us - and we'll likely never know for sure.  But it sure seems to pertain directly to us, and even if that was not the intent, we'll roll with it, considering the relevance to our previous discussions.  It's June, and training camp doesn't start for another 40 days.  Something has to pass the time.  (Emphasis is ours.)

Whether it was strong safety, cornerback, nickel corner or free safety, Whitner was everywhere. And while there’s no debating how much Buffalo’s coaching staff values the ultra-versatile safety, there are outside observers that believe a top 10 pick should have more big plays than Whitner has had over his first three NFL seasons.

Even if Brown wasn't pointing directly at us... well, that still describes us pretty snugly.

What the outside observers fail to realize is in Buffalo’s defensive scheme Whitner has played strong safety more than any other position in the defensive backfield. As the role of that position is drawn up, opportunities to make plays on the ball are extremely limited.

Noted.  This is precisely why we have written that Whitner should play free safety on a permanent basis for the better part of two years.  The fact that Whitner has been forced into playing nickel coverage duties thanks to an abundance of injuries at cornerback has certainly hampered his ability to make more game-changing plays, as well, if only because he can't settle in at one position.  (Though we will also point out that the sack, forced fumble and two defended passes that Ashton Youboty put up in just five games' worth of nickel duty in 2008 equals a third of Whitner's career production at several positions.)

Encouragingly, however, word surfaced - from Whitner himself - that the fourth-year pro would be making a full-time switch to free safety for the 2009 season.  That was before the Bills used a second-round pick on Oregon DB Jairus Byrd, a player the Bills are expected to move to - you guessed it - free safety.  Where does that leave Whitner? From Brown's article...

"Whatever they ask me to do I do to the best of my ability," Whitner said. "We’ll see. I’m going into my fourth year and will get the opportunity to play free safety. But I probably won’t even stay at free safety because they drafted Jairus Byrd. They want him to play some free safety. Coach Fewell likes me at both, but they like him at free so we’ll see. Hopefully I’ll get the opportunity to play there and get the job done."

Byrd, who snagged 17 interceptions in three years as a starting cornerback for the Ducks, is viewed as a more natural ballhawk than Whitner.  Even though he has missed all of Buffalo's veteran OTAs and the mandatory mini-camp thanks to a late exam schedule, Byrd is expected to get every opportunity to nail down a starting job as quickly as he can.  Keep in mind that as an Ohio State alum, Whitner, too, missed Buffalo's off-season activities in 2006.  He was a full-time starter at strong safety by Week 2 of his rookie season.

Clearly, Byrd nailing down a starting job is far from a lock.  The only safety assured of starting on opening day, barring injury, is Whitner - and let us be perfectly clear here.  Whitner is a huge asset to the Bills simply because he can capably don several different hats.  That's invaluable for a young defense, especially since the versatility is coming from a young player.  (Though he is entering his fourth NFL season, Whitner will not turn 24 until the eve of this year's open of training camp.)  Whitner will be starting for Buffalo, but it's uncertain at this point whether he'll be playing free safety next to veteran strong safety Bryan Scott, or if he'll retain his strong safety position, allowing Byrd to slide in at free safety.

Two more things are certain.  Whitner probably won't exclusively play one position.  Due to that fact, it is difficult to hope for an increase in his "big play" production.  If his moving around positionally, and not playing the one spot that would put him in position to have a bigger impact (free safety) on a permanent basis has hampered him, little will change.  Perhaps that's what Buffalo wants; perhaps they're happy with Whitner as he is and for what he currently offers the defense.  That's fine - we're excited to see what happens whether he's playing free safety (next to Scott), or strong safety next to the promising rookie.  But that doesn't mean we can't poll our little community about the safety position, either.

Poll
What should Buffalo's starting safety tandem look like in 2009?
FS: Whitner; SS: Scott
252 votes
FS: Byrd, SS: Whitner
584 votes
Other (explain in comments)
27 votes

863 votes | Poll has closed

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Bills News and Notes 6/15: All Owens, all the time

Buffalo Bills coach Dick Jauron, left, looks on during mandatory football minicamp inside the fieldhouse at Ralph Wilson Stadium in Orchard Park, N.Y., Thursday, June 11, 2009. (AP Photo/David Duprey)

More photos » by David Duprey - AP

24 days ago: Buffalo Bills coach Dick Jauron, left, looks on during mandatory football minicamp inside the fieldhouse at Ralph Wilson Stadium in Orchard Park, N.Y., Thursday, June 11, 2009. (AP Photo/David Duprey)

Y'all asked for a weekly photo caption contest; ask and ye shall receive.  The above photo is an AP shot of Buffalo Bills head coach Dick Jauron during the last of three mini-camp practices last Thursday.  Have at it; we'll vote on a winner sometime later this week.  I'll be picking out my favorites for voting purposes; bonus points go to anyone who incorporates The Office into their caption, because the photo itself, and in particular Jauron's prominence and expression in it, has a definite Michael Scott feel to it.

Here's some interesting reading material from the past week that you may or may not have missed.

* The Globe and Mail calls the Bills' signing of WR Terrell Owens an "outrageous gamble" and a "shotgun wedding."  On next week's reporting agenda? They're hearing Brett Favre to the Vikings.

* Speaking of Owens, he's helping the fantasy value of several of his teammates.

* One more Owens-centric article: when asked how his grasp of the Bills' play book is coming along, his response? "It's coming."

* Bills head coach Dick Jauron is on the hot seat after three consecutive 7-9 seasons, but he doesn't feel any more pressure than he has the previous three seasons.

* Jauron ended the team's mandatory three-day mini-camp a bit early, rewarding his players for an off-season of high effort.

* Here's an interesting article on the no-huddle offense from the Buffalo News.

* Second-round draft pick S Jairus Byrd, who has not participated in Bills team activities since early May's rookie mini-camp thanks to a stupid NFL rule, spent some time in Orchard Park over the weekend catching up with secondary coach George Catavolos.

* Byrd's fellow rookie, first-round pick DE Aaron Maybin, will be working out with Ravens LB Ray Lewis.  Pray that some of Lewis' winning ways rub off on Buffalo's prize rookie.

* CB Ashton Youboty is looking for a healthy season in 2009 - a contract year for the fourth-year defensive back.

* Former Nebraska QB Joe Ganz will try out with the Bills.

* With mini-camps and OTAs officially coming to a close, all will be quiet on the western front until July 25, when the Bills officially open training camp.

* Buffalo's first three home games of the 2009 season - dates with the Buccaneers, Saints and Browns - have all sold out.

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