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Buffalo's Offensive Woes: Cause and Solution

It's Lynch... then who?... scoring points (BuffaloBills.com)

Much has been made recently about the incredibly inconsistent play of the offensive unit of the Buffalo Bills throughout their first nine games of the season. Here's a fun fact for you: the Bills have scored 143 points in 9 games, or an anemic average of 15.9 points per game. Only five NFL teams have scored fewer points - San Francisco (104), Atlanta (135), Kansas City (135), St. Louis (136), and Baltimore (138). Oh, and don't forget that four of Buffalo's touchdowns (28 points) have come by the way of their defense and special teams. Simply put, Buffalo's offense is too close to the bottom of the league for the team's 5-4 record to make much sense.

The Bills, in 2007, have scored 10 offensive touchdowns. 7 of those have directly involved the legs (or right arm) of RB Marshawn Lynch. No other Bill has scored more than twice (WR Lee Evans). Bills passers have tossed just four touchdowns in nine games - and again, one of them was thrown by Lynch. Playmaking has been minimal. Outside of Lynch, every single offensive Bill is, at the very best, highly inconsistent. The biggest questions facing this team right now: can Buffalo's offense turn it around before teams finally solve the defense? Better yet, is there a way to fix this unit before season's end?

What's the Biggest Problem?
In Buffalo's five wins this season, the Bills have kicked 12 field goals and scored 8 touchdowns. That means in four losses, the Bills have scored 6 touchdowns and kicked just three field goals. Strange, right? Four of those touchdowns in losses were scored by the defense or special teams. That means in four losses, the Bills' offense has scored a whopping 23 points. Let's average wins versus losses:

Offense in wins: 18.4 points per game
Offense in losses: 5.8 points per game

Seriously... six points per game in losses. That means in victory, the Bills' offense is doing just enough, while in losses, they can't come close to making a game of it. So, again, what's the cause of these struggles? It's not Lynch - in victory or defeat, he's never rushed for fewer than 61 yards in a game at this level. It's not the quarterbacks - they've flip-flopped, but in general, they've been so-so in victory and so-so in defeat (3 TD vs. 5 INT in victory; 0 TD vs. 3 INT in defeat). That leaves one player that has to be the cause:

This offense goes as Lee Evans goes.

Opponents Keying in on Lee
What's been the fastest, most efficient way to shut down Buffalo's offense this season? Eliminate Lee Evans from the passing game. It doesn't matter how it's done - if it happens, the Bills flounder. Just take a look at the eye-popping numbers:

Evans in 5 Victories: 29 receptions, 538 yards, 2 TD
Evans in 4 Losses: 6 catches, 41 yards, 0 TD

There's not much more convincing to do than that - at least for me. You can blame the QB carousel, you can blame the play-calling, and you can blame the lack of options outside of Lynch and Evans. The stats prove it: teams are most effective against the Bills when they turn Evans into a non-factor. Do I really need to convince you that Bill Belichick is fully aware of this?

How Can Buffalo Side-Step This?
Outside of Lynch and Evans, Buffalo's talent at the receiving skill positions is, at best, specialized. Josh Reed - starting at receiver in place of the injured Peerless Price - isn't quick or big enough to gain separation on the outside, and is better suited to a slot role. Roscoe Parrish is too small to use his separation skills anywhere but in the slot, as well. Sam Aiken and Justin Jenkins round out the wideout depth, but neither has been a factor in the passing game. Meanwhile, the Bills do not have a tight end who can stretch the defense vertically down the middle of the field. Robert Royal and Michael Gaines have been effective catching passes in the flat and on screens, but they simply are ineffective outside of 10 yards.

So how do you loosen up coverage on Evans? Lighten the rushing load of Marshawn Lynch. Yes, lighten his rushing load. Notice I didn't say touches - if the Bills want to keep defenses from focusing on Evans solely in the passing attack, they need to utilize Lynch as a receiver out of the backfield. It makes too much sense not to - if you can't throw the ball to your best offensive weapon, why not throw it to your second best? It's inexplicable and infuriating that it hasn't happened nearly as often as it should be to this point.

For a back that entered the NFL highly touted as a receiver, Lynch's receiving numbers are unimpressive. The sad truth: with just 15 catches in 9 games, Lynch is still the fourth-leading receiver on this squad. Best-case scenario: rather than giving Lynch 25 carries in a game, why not give him 20, Dwayne Wright 5-8 and throw to Lynch 4-6 times per game? Lynch needs the ball, whether by ground or air, and throwing to him gives the rookie a little more space to use the wiggle he displayed in college. It's win-win: we're getting the ball in the hands of our playmakers, while relaxing coverage on Lee Evans. Lynch is effective, Evans is effective, and the Bills are far less predictable on offense. Or am I missing something here?

Memo to Steve Fairchild-Mularkey
This may seem like an easy solution, SF-M. And it is. But until you, you know, call plays in which our quarterback throws to our running back, you're going to see the same problems crop up week in and week out. I know you like wide receiver screens, tight end screens, and plays in which you max protect and send two guys deep. I get that. But it doesn't work. This will.

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F-mularkey
Cutesy-ball I do not like. Look what has happened in SD. Shotty would run like a maniac to set up the pass, they were 14-2 and if they just would have stuck to their guns may have made it to the Super Bowl. Now with Turner, they aren't sticking to the fundamentals and may miss the playoffs.
Fairchild needs to find something, maybe not MArty-ball, but just use our weapons for what they are.
You've got it spot on Brian. Just play football, straight up, and we might win.
The Bills can win every game

by killascript on Nov 14, 2007 8:55 AM EST   0 recs

what will be out there?
This is a problem that will have to be fixed in the off-season, but who is out there to fix it? I don't know what T.E.'s or W.R.'s will be available in free agency, but don't count on the draft to get a receiver because you can never count on them making an impact in the first year. One guy i like in the draft is Owen Schmidt out of West Virginia, he's listed as a fullback but would be ideal in the bills h-back spot. as for this year the bills need to stretch the field more and I agree Brian get your other backs involved, split Lynch out as a receiver like he did in college, PLEASE lets see some creativity out of this offense.

by sireric on Nov 14, 2007 10:26 AM EST   0 recs

yeah, i just don't get it
when the ball is thrown to lynch, he's effective. he made some difficult catches (if i recall correctly) this past week, and he can do the same this week.

what do you think let the colts hang in there with the patriots? run with addai, screen to addai, run, screen, up top to wayne, drop by crappy receiver, run, screen, run.

maybe a problem is that our offensive line hasn't shown the ability to block down field effectively enough to run good screen passes. i don't know, i haven't seen that as a problem on sundays when they do throw the ball to marshawn.

by sri on Nov 14, 2007 11:19 AM EST   0 recs

Throw Lynch the Darned Ball!
Having watched Marshawn Lynch make many many many great catches out of the backfield, as a receiver, etc. at Cal, my father (the Buffalo native) is so disappointed with the fact that while Lynch managed to impress him with those plays when he came to our Cal games, the same type of play calling is never on display in Buffalo.

Granted, NFL defenses are much stronger than your Pac-10 defenses, but Lynch played at such a high level here, and has displayed such great hands that it seems ridiculous that the offensive coaches haven't even tried to take a few plays out of Tedford's old playbooks.  If they fail, then by all means, drop them, but for the time being, I don't think there's any serious risk running some new plays.

by CalFan on Nov 14, 2007 2:01 PM EST   0 recs

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