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State of the Roster: Bills Running Backs

Jackson leaped onto the scene in 2nd year (BuffaloBills.com)

Remember last off-season? Willis McGahee had been traded, Anthony Thomas sat atop the depth chart, Bills fans were drooling over a potential trade for Chargers RB Michael Turner, and we knew without a fraction of a doubt that if we didn't address the position our season would be sunk? What a difference a year makes. Once a position of potentially crippling weakness, running back is now arguably the strongest position on the team.

So let's talk about this bright spot. Here's the breakdown of Buffalo's running backs, and what the group should look like in 2008:

Marshawn Lynch
Only two NFL rookies had bigger statistical impacts in 2007 than did Lynch: Vikings RB Adrian Peterson and 49ers LB Patrick Willis. (Notice the use of the word "statistical" - didn't want to get Browns fans riled up over the contributions of OT Joe Thomas.) Displaying much more power and fight than most gave him credit for in scouting reports, Lynch proved that he has the all-around game to be an elite talent at this level - he can run inside, outside, catch the ball, and pick up the blitz. He's the total package. One downside: he led the NFL with 21.5 attempts per game; Buffalo needs to be careful next season not to run their thoroughbred into the ground.

Will Improve in '08 if - he's not asked to run inside as often :: a new coordinator finds a more creative way to get him the ball through the air :: Fred Jackson continues to improve

Fred Jackson
May have been the surprise of the '07 roster if it weren't for Trent Edwards. Jackson exploded onto the scene during the team's final five games, and finished the season with 300 rushing yards on just 58 attempts. Jackson's style is a bit different from Lynch - Marshawn has a little more wiggle to his running, while Jackson is more of a cutter - but they're similar in that both have the makings of being all-around backs. Buffalo's offense didn't miss a beat when Jackson started in place of the injured Lynch; his role will continue to be expanded next season. A true "diamond in the rough".

Will Improve in '08 if - he can refine his blitz pickup technique :: he's given more of Marshawn's work load :: the Bills use him as a receiver on third downs

Anthony Thomas
Thomas spent much of 2007 as the primary backup to Lynch, but a season-ending ankle injury allowed Jackson to shine and may prove Thomas expendable next season. He was often utilized on third downs early in the season a pass blocker until Lynch learned the ropes, but didn't see much in the way of rush attempts. He's a resourceful, heady veteran, but unless the Bills keep four runners next year, Thomas may be the victim of a youth movement at the position.

Dwayne Wright
The greenest of Buffalo's runners, Wright - a fourth round pick last season - did not see the field too often in '07. When he was on the field, he showed three main skills: a toughness paralleled only by Lynch, resourcefulness paralleled only by Thomas, and a propensity to fumble. He's got talent, but the fact that he was leap-frogged by a former practice squadder shows just how far Wright has to go. He has ability as a fullback on kick return units, and his youth almost assures him a spot on the team; just don't expect to see him carry the ball much next season.

Will Improve in '08 if - he nixes his fumbling issues :: he's given work at the goal line :: he loses some of his rookie reserve and runs even harder

Shaud Williams
Is only currently on the roster because of the injury to Thomas; he did not see active game action this season. Almost assuredly won't be on the team next season - he may not even get an invite to camp.

Jonathan Evans
A fullback currently on the practice squad. Only chance at being a Bill in '08 is if he flashes special teams ability, and the new offensive coordinator scraps the H-Back.

Off-Season Outlook
Don't expect a lot of activity at this position during the coming months. The Bills have a trio of young backs in Lynch, Jackson and Wright that they will most assuredly continue to ride for as long as possible. If they decide to keep four backs, Thomas fits the bill, as he's familiar with Jauron and a great teammate. Unlike 2006, the Bills have incredible stability at the running back position.

Possible Additions: none
Possible Subtractions: Thomas, Williams, Evans

0 recs  |  Comment 7 comments

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I would love to see the Bills return to a true FB
Remember the days of Jaime Mueller and Carwell Gardner?  I want the Bills to draft either Owen Schmitt (WVU) or Carl Stewart (Auburn) for fullback.  I really want them to take Schmitt, but if they stay with the "H-back", Jacob Hester (LSU) or Peyton Hillis (Arkansas) would be good fits too.  

I think the Bills need to get a little tougher and slide away from the finesse that I think they were trying to use because of the small, fast recievers. Lynch is tough and can you imagine him following Schmitt (6-3 260!!!) through a hole made by Peters and Dockery.   A couple more red zone TD's me thinks.

by RabidBuffalo on Jan 11, 2008 9:34 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Stewart
I am biased since I am an Auburn alum, but Stewart would be a good pick.  He is a good blocker and a good receiver out of the back field.  Also, when given the opportunity to run, he runs more like a tailback than a fullback.

by fletcherjd on Jan 12, 2008 1:38 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

good read
i think you're absolutely right about next year, brian.  the bills need to cut down on marshawn's carries - we dont want to run him into the ground.  if weve got jackson, why not use him?  lynch shoud get 15-20 carries per game and 3-5 catches, while jackson should get 8-13 carries a game and 4-6 catches.  that way we're getting both our playmakers involved and keeping lynch healthy for a longer career.  it would be a bad move to continue lynch on the path he set out on as a rookie.

by trent2lee6 on Jan 12, 2008 9:03 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Lynch and Jackson
I like the idea of splitting some of Marshawn's carries, after all he has never been a work horse before, but in order for both he and Jackson to get that many touches, they have to be effective. Doing a little math, and using your most modest numbers, Lynch is touching the ball 18 times (15 and 3) and Jackson is touching the ball 12 times (8 and 4) thats 30 touches. I'm not sure what the average plays per game are, but that doesn't leave much for the wide receivers and tight ends.

I love your thought process, and would love to see it happen, just not sure if it will.

One side note I just checked out the mock drafts of  both Walter Football, and Draft Tek. Love both drafts. Thought it was interesting that Draft Tek had the Bills taking Tashard Choice in the 5th round. Not only did I think he would go higher, but I didn't see a need for the Bills to take a running back. Then I thought if he's there would they take him because he's clearly the best player available?

who would have thought I'd miss Pete Metzelaars?

by sireric on Jan 12, 2008 2:06 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

plays
bills averaged 56 offensive plays per game in 2007, 2nd lowest in the NFL. if they can boost that to 60 (middle of the pack), you can easily give marshawn 20 touches per and jackson 15. that gives you 35, figure 7 through the air, which leaves 25 more pass/run plays (for a total of 32ish pass plays).

it varies based on conditions and game plans, but you can get both of these guys the ball a lot and steal appease WRs and TEs (if they prove they deserve the ball). fred taylor and MJD got 15 and 11  carries per game respectively and the jags still incorporated a solid passing game (garrard averaged 27 attempts per game when he played).

as long as lynch isnt worn out im happy. there are times when we have trouble moving the ball that it seems using the backs interchangeably disrupts rhythm, but when we aren't moving the ball you really don't have to worry about wearing anybody out.

   

by jmorris0823 on Jan 12, 2008 11:43 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Guys
I'm not sold on Jackson.  To me he only showed one game where he was good(he ran for 100+).  After that I got nothing.  He isn't an every down back.  I do agree that Lynch needs to not carry the ball as much.  I can't BILLieve he did have as many seeing how he was out for a couple games. Maybe give Jackson 10-15 of the 30-40 carries. But even that, can Jackson be effective?  I guess he at least deserves a full year to develop but if he doesn't maybe Wright will pick up his game.  There is definitly depth here, IMO.
Do you BILLieve?

by NYTXFAN on Jan 12, 2008 2:37 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Jackson
Action Jackson had two effective games, B3J - you mentioned the Dolphins game, but he also racked up 150+ total yards in the win in Washington. He was huge in that game. Once Lynch had the Miami game under his belt and was 100% back, most of the carries went to him again. I'm with Trent2Lee6 on this one - that can't happen again. It takes away the surprise element of Buffalo's rushing attack, and in turn hampers the offense.
Create a free account to join in the discussion, Bills fans!

by Brian Galliford on Jan 12, 2008 2:53 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

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