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State of the Roster: Bills Defensive Ends

Bills need more production from Kelsay (BuffaloBills.com)

As we continue to await news on the offensive coordinator front, we'll continue our roster breakdowns by switching over to the defensive side of the ball to discuss Buffalo's much-maligned defensive ends. A defensive strength in 2006, the Bills saw a massive drop-off in production at this position last year. Injuries riddled the group on and off all season, and the lack of true speed at the position was apparent. As the catalyst for success in Buffalo's Cover-2 defense, this unit has come under harsh criticism as being one of the main causes of the Bills' defensive woes this season.

There is, however, upside with this group. Let's take a look at its members:

Aaron Schobel
Due to his prominent stature, Schobel is the main scapegoat for this group. He totaled just 6.5 sacks last year - his lowest total since his rookie season - but finished fifth on the team with 57 tackles, and was voted by his peers as a Pro Bowl alternate. Schobel wasn't the main problem; he was often asked to do too much, mainly cover backs and tight ends on zone blitzes. He is still a defender that opposing offenses must game-plan against; the veteran is a heady player, and still has something left in the tank. He just needs some help - he's not a guy who can carry a defense (though he's paid like it).

Will Improve in '08 if - he's asked to do less in blitz packages :: a pass rusher is added to take pressure off of him :: his linemates can stay healthy

Chris Kelsay
If you want a scapegoat, Kelsay is your man. It's hard to question his work ethic and leadership skills, but when you sign a $23 million extension with your team, you have to provide more than 44 tackles and 2.5 sacks. Kelsay is a solid player, but he'll never strike fear into his opponents as a pass rusher. Still, he had one of Buffalo's coolest plays in '07 - a batted pass of Tony Romo that he caught in the end zone for a touchdown. I can rip Kelsay all I want, but that play was the stuff of legends.

Will Improve in '08 if - he's off the field on third downs :: he retains his team captaincy :: he can stay healthy

Ryan Denney
Denney's troubles with injury last season really hurt the team from a depth standpoint. Kelsay and Denney are essentially the same player - hard-working, hustling, great against the run, so-so pass rushers. When he went down, however, the Bills had nowhere to turn. His importance to this club is underrated; if he can stay healthy in '08, he should re-assume his niche on this line.

Will Improve in '08 if - he can stay healthy :: he's not used as often on pass downs

Anthony Hargrove
If the Bills are looking to add depth at defensive end this off-season, Hargrove may be the odd man out. He provided a nice energy boost for much of 2007, but he also has a suspension and an expired contract under his belt. With recent long-term contracts handed out to Schobel, Kelsay and Denney - and with Ryan Neill the team's long snapper - there really is only room for one more end on the roster. Hargrove may get the axe if, say, a mid-round pass-rushing rookie is added.

Ryan Neill
It was a bit surprising to see Neill earn some playing time toward the end of the season as an end; massive amounts of injuries will do that to you. Neill struggled a bit late in the season with his long-snapping, but in general was pretty consistent in his first year on the job. A virtual lock to hold that position again next season.

Copeland Bryan
The enigma of Buffalo's 2007 roster, Bryan was added very early in the season after the Bills cut Eric Powell - a player who saw a significant chunk of time in the opening day loss to Denver. Bryan rarely saw the field, however, before ending his season by being placed on the Injured Reserve. Has virtually no shot at being on the roster in '08.

Al Wallace
Signed in the pre-season after Denney was injured, Wallace's Bills career lasted about half a game. The veteran's one-year deal has expired, and while he was fun to watch during that one pre-season game, he won't be here next year.

Other roster members: Daniel Watts, Shaun Nua, Khari Long. These three young men ended the season on the practice squad (Watts was there the entire season) and will be lucky if they're in that same position this time next year.

Off-Season Outlook
Let's get this out of the way: Schobel, Kelsay and Denney are here to stay. They're solid, hard-working football players that can be successful in this type of defense. What they can't provide, however, is game-breaking speed; finding that type of explosiveness is precisely what the Bills need to do this off-season, even if it comes in the form of a mid-round pick. A situational pass rusher with speed would really elevate the effectiveness of the three veterans on the roster; maybe, at that point, they'd no longer be scapegoats. Maybe, at that point, they'll return to their '06 production and earn a bit of their massive paychecks.

Possible additions: speed rusher
Possible subtractions: Hargrove, Bryan, Wallace

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DE
In my opinion, adding a speed rushing DE is the most important need for the defense, and should be tops on the new front offices to do list. I love Gholston in the first round and if he's there I would be disappointed if they passed him up.
who would have thought I'd miss Pete Metzelaars?

by sireric on Jan 14, 2008 9:12 AM EST   0 recs

Re: Gholston
I agree that he's a fantastic talent, but it might not be the best idea to take DE in the first round. I'm with you if you want DE in the second or third round - because fine athletes can be had there - but the first might be a stretch, simply because of the money. A prospect to keep your eye on: Chase Ortiz of TCU.
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by Brian Galliford on Jan 14, 2008 9:19 AM EST to parent up   0 recs

Money shouldn't matter
I get what you're saying, and if the Bills can get someone good later I guess I can't complain. But in My opinion, just because you over paid Schobel and Kelsay, doesn't mean you can't get the best guy for your team because he'll add to the already high cost at the position. Obviously, being the 11th overall pick Gholston would make a decent amount of money, but to me if the team feels that he would be the best fit, and didn't take him because of money, I'll be quite unhappy. Besides they can always ask Schobel and Kelsay to redo their deals later if necessary.
who would have thought I'd miss Pete Metzelaars?

by sireric on Jan 14, 2008 9:31 AM EST to parent up   0 recs

Your point is a good one
And not one that I personally disagree with. Gholston might be the one player who could make the biggest, most beneficial immediate impact to this team. I'm not counting on him being there at #11 - D-ends always go high in the draft - and if a player like Connor, Sweed or Cason is there, they might be better investments money-wise.
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by Brian Galliford on Jan 14, 2008 9:49 AM EST to parent up   0 recs

Conner & Cason
I like defense with the first pick. I've seem several mocks that have the Bills taking Keith Rivers from USC, in the first. I just think that this draft has loads of receivers, too many to justify taking one in the first round. Tight end seems to be getting deeper also, and I think the second or third round would be a great time to get a decent tight end and receiver. After that I'm not sure what is out there for DE, which is why I'd prefer to take DE early. LB, WR, TE, and CB, all seem like deep positions in this draft, but you're not going to find a talent like Gholston after the first maybe second round. If he's there I would jump on him.
who would have thought I'd miss Pete Metzelaars?

by sireric on Jan 14, 2008 10:53 AM EST to parent up   0 recs

$$$ money money money
Since we're talking money, it'd be prudent to compare dollars to the Marshawn Lynch deal. Lynch was the #12 pick last year; he signed a 6-year, $18.935 million deal. $3 million signing bonus, $10.285 million guaranteed. Patrick Willis was #11; he signed a 5-year, $16.655 million deal. $12 million in guarantees. The numbers will be slightly bigger for Buffalo's top pick this season, given salary cap inflations. We're looking at a $20 million deal with $13 mil guaranteed at least.

Our current DE numbers: Schobel - due $11.5 million in base salaries over the next 3 years, and guaranteed $21 million on current contract
Kelsay - due $8.1 million over the next 3 years
Denney - due $4.7 million over the next 2 years

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by Brian Galliford on Jan 14, 2008 11:13 AM EST to parent up   0 recs

$$$ money money money
All I keep reading on this site is how the Bills have $30 million in cap space, if they have so much room, then a little extra at the DE position shouldn't be much of a problem. Also if they felt so inclined and needed to cut somebody to free up money and playing time, would anybody really miss Denney? I know he had 6 sacks in 2006, but I feel Gholston could more than make up for that.
who would have thought I'd miss Pete Metzelaars?

by sireric on Jan 14, 2008 11:19 AM EST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Denney
I concur that a Gholston/Hargrove reserve is far superior to a Denney/other pick one. I still don't think it's likely that a DE goes to Buffalo in the first round, but I certainly wouldn't mind it personally.
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by Brian Galliford on Jan 14, 2008 11:30 AM EST to parent up   0 recs

I don't see it either
But I'm just hoping that, you've done such a great job with this site that Guy, Modrak, Brandon, and Ralph all read this stuff religiously, and maybe I can convince them.
who would have thought I'd miss Pete Metzelaars?

by sireric on Jan 14, 2008 11:36 AM EST to parent up   0 recs

Kelsay
I think he was probably one of the worst starting DE's in the league, especially against the run. The Bills D finished dead last in the league against runs off right end by over half a yard(which is the LE defensively: Kelsay). DEAD LAST!!  The stats are from FootballOutsiders, not sure if the link is working right now though, but trust me if it isn't.  Since I can't see the exact stat right now, it's off of memory, but if I recall correctly the yards per carry over Kelsay's end was 5.75 with the next closest at under 5.25. Also, off tackle on that side wasn't much better as we finished around 22nd in the NFL in ypc. To contrast, runs over the end on Schobel's side were around 1 ypc finishing 1st in the NFL.

To me, Kelsay is absolutely terrible. He gives us nothing out there that a mid-level FA, Ryan Denney or a draft pick couldn't, other than maybe some leadership.  2.5 sacks and one of the worst run D's to his side pretty much tells it all.

As for who I'd like to replace him with I have a few Gator candidates. First is Bobby McCray, a FA from Jacksonville (& former Gator), who had 10 sacks in 2006. He fell out of favor there a bit this year and didn't quite have the stats again, but he is a pretty solid speed rusher. I think he could be relatively cheap too, especially compared to Kelsay. He'd be able to rotate w/Denney and Hargrove (if retained) and be a 3rd down specialist for sure.  I also like Derrick Harvey in the draft the most. I like him more than Gholston and think he'll be a premier pass rusher in the NFL.  I am definitely not opposed to spending #11 on a pass rusher as it's a desperate need, IMO. A couple of mid round prospects to look at are Tommy Blake (TCU), Jason Jones (E. Michigan), and Kenny Iwebema (Iowa) and Angelo Craig (Cincinnati) late in the draft...

~K

by Kurupt on Jan 14, 2008 1:16 PM EST   0 recs

Derrick Harvey
I like him also, Gholston or Harvey would be fine with me. I think, money aside DE needs help. If somebody's got to go then so be it.
who would have thought I'd miss Pete Metzelaars?

by sireric on Jan 14, 2008 1:23 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

re:
"If somebody's got to go then so be it. "

Yup. I hope the FO sees it that way.

~K

by Kurupt on Jan 14, 2008 1:27 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Run D
Keep in mind that the left side is also where Keith Ellison resides. That certainly factors into the equation - especially when you consider that Ellison barely made any plays this season. Keith finished with 38 tackles in 12 games. That is awful for a starting linebacker, and a big factor in that stat you shared. Not saying Kelsay isn't partially to blame; I'd just put much more of the blame on Ellison's shoulders.

I, too, like Harvey. I still prefer Gholston, just because he's a bit more balanced but still has the pass rush skills to dominate, but Harvey is a blue-chipper as well. I'd be fine with either guy.

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by Brian Galliford on Jan 14, 2008 1:25 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Ellison
Didn't Ellison lineup according to where the TE was?  Maybe?

Either way, Kelsay still sucks.  Ellison is pathetic, obviously, but Kelsay wasn't doing him any favors.  Plus, wasn't our run D even worse the first 3 games of the year when Ellison was out allowing 170+ ypg???

~K

by Kurupt on Jan 14, 2008 1:31 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Serviceable.
That's all you say about our DEs.  Average to slightly above average at best.  They might give better production if DTs were better, as well as the LB group.

I'm inclined to keep this group as is.  I think it's more important to address the other two spots I spoke of.  

If I were to do anything, I'd rather go for a bigger DE, someone like that freak from Miami (Campbell?), or even Tyson Jackson from LSU if he comes out early.  I understand the importance of speed in this defense, but Gholston to me looks just like the other three, ie, I'm concerned about his lack of size.

Could Kelsay ever play LB?  I still picture him as more of a OLB in the 34 than a DE in the 43.

by krytime on Jan 14, 2008 2:02 PM EST   0 recs

Size matters not
What matters is power. Explosiveness. Neither Schobel, Kelsay or Denney have that - they have hustle. Gholston has power and explosiveness. That's a very, very key difference.

Kelsay isn't a LB - he's not agile enough to play in space, though the Bills asked him to from time to time on zone blitzes. He's a much better fit as a DE in the 4-3.

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by Brian Galliford on Jan 14, 2008 2:10 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

If George Wilson can
Learn to play FS, than anything can happen.  I just don't look at Kelsay as a DE.  I just see him get manhandled way too often in tight space.

I agree about the "power" thing being most important.  I just don't see Gholston having that either.  

by krytime on Jan 14, 2008 2:39 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Wilson comparison
I don't think the Wilson comparison fits here. The physical similarities between safeties and receivers is more often than not negligible, and they're all about the same athlete. In a 4-3 defense, however, there's a big difference between ends and linebackers, especially in the Cover-2. Agility is the big difference, and Kelsay doesn't have the lateral movement skills to move in space.

As far as your concerns about Gholston go, if this isn't explosion and power, I don't know what is. :)

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by Brian Galliford on Jan 14, 2008 2:55 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Another Gholston vid
This is explosion and power defined as well, this time against the run.
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by Brian Galliford on Jan 14, 2008 2:56 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Love those clips
Taking down any running back with one arm is impressive. Man would I love to see this guy in a Bills uni.
who would have thought I'd miss Pete Metzelaars?

by sireric on Jan 14, 2008 3:04 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

I'm not saying
I hate Gholston.  Those are very impressive clips.  I'm just as crazy about him as you, obviously.

by krytime on Jan 14, 2008 3:14 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Questions
I know this has probably been thought of and asked before, and may not have a valid answer:

Why did the Bills invest so heavily in the Duo of Mediocrity?  Do the Bills value character more than production?

Is Cover 2 really their base defense?

by Fort Worth on Jan 14, 2008 3:41 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Because...
... up until this year, they were collectively productive, with Schobel at the forefront. Injuries and an alarming lack of athleticism finally caught up with this group, and Schobel is now on the wrong side of 30. A youth movement is needed here. Gholston is growing on me more and more...
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by Brian Galliford on Jan 14, 2008 3:48 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

D-Line
I know that you, like me, think the D-line to be very important. I think that the DEs need help, somebody with lots of speed and agility. That said, an upgrade at DT isn't out of the question either. I love Sedrick Ellis from USC, and that kid from Miami you mentioned, Campbell. (I don't think he's got a position yet, he's big enough to play inside, and quick enough to play outside.) So while I did say I would like a DE in the first, DT wouldn't make me pull my hair out either.
who would have thought I'd miss Pete Metzelaars?

by sireric on Jan 14, 2008 2:20 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

I would just be
so happy if they address the D early and often.  Adding another talented player to the DL, LB, and CB positions with at least 3 of 5 (by my projection) picks on day one will only help to improve this team.  A lot.  I don't even care what order they draft them in.  

by krytime on Jan 14, 2008 2:46 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

First day
Actually the draft changed up a bit, the first day is only the first and second rounds, this year. so technically the Bills only have 2 first day picks, but with two 3rd rounders they have 4 in the first 3 rounds. I knew what you meant I'm just nit-picking.

I like drafting D also, but I do think, given how poorly the offense played last year, that there should be maybe 1 offensive guy in there. Maybe.

who would have thought I'd miss Pete Metzelaars?

by sireric on Jan 14, 2008 2:56 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

I wonder
if from now on, "First Day" pick will be an alternative way of saying, top 100 or thereabouts.

I knew they switched it up, and I like the idea behind it.  Talk about a successful cottage industry...

by krytime on Jan 14, 2008 3:10 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

I was only saying
3 of 5.  I'm forecasting a JP trade, fetching at least a 2nd rounder.  That gives 5 "first day picks" this year.  That's not going overboard on D; still leaves two other picks to help out the O.

by krytime on Jan 14, 2008 3:20 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Losman
No way he gets us a #2. Very unlikely he gets us what used to be a 1st-day pick. We'll be lucky - very lucky - to get a 5th rounder. Too many teams are sticking with what they've got (Chicago, NY Jets), and too many teams are looking at the draft's big 3 names (Ryan, Brohm, Woodson). J.P. won't be a starter next season; we won't get starter's ransom for him, either.
Create a free account to join in the discussion, Bills fans!

by Brian Galliford on Jan 14, 2008 3:31 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

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