The Defensive End Argument

by jri111 on Feb 14, 2008 1:43 PM EST

A lot of people around here seem to think defensive end is one of Buffalo's top priorities this off-season (or at least should be). Although I do share many of your concerns with the quality of play of both Schobel and Kelsey, I find it highly unlikely that the Bills make an assertive attempt to upgrade the position this year - whether it be free agnecy or the draft. Why you ask? Money. Here are the numbers from rotoworld (http://rotoworld.com/content/playerpages/player_main.aspx?sport=NFL&id=2297) and WGR (http://www.wgr550.com/column.php?id=0599):

Aaron Schobel:

Contract:
Aaron Schobel signed his new deal on 8/24/2007. He signed a seven-year, $50.5 million contract. The deal includes $21 million in guarantees. His base salaries from 2007-2010 are guaranteed. 2007-2008: $2.5 million, 2009: $3 million, 2010: $6 million, 2011-2013: Under Contract. In 2014 he will become a free agent ( and also be 37 years old!)

Analysis:
According to WGR Schobel has the highest cap number on the roster in '08 at $8.7 million. His base is guaranteed for the next THREE seasons so he will at least be around that long. Depending on his 2011-2013 salaries he would be in a position to be restructured or cut, but the bottom line is he isn't going anywhere anytime soon.

Chris Kelsey:

Contract:
Chris Kelsey signed his new contract on 2/26/2007. He signed a four-year, $23 million contract. The deal included an $8 million signing bonus and an initial roster bonus of $3 million. 2008: $1.4 million, 2009: $3 million, 2010: $3.7 million. In 2011 he becomes a free agent. According to WGR he has a cap number of $5 million this season. That's good for 4th highest on the team.

Analysis:
Although Kelsey's numbers seem reasonable for the next few years, it's hard to tell how much of the signing bonus was amortized over the remaining three years. The $5 million reported by WGR gives us a clue (that a good chunk of that bonus must have been accounted towards '08). Regardless though, it's a moot point. The Bills didn't give Kelsey $11 million in guaranteed money less then a year ago so he could ride the pine in '08. Also cutting him would not be realistic because they would have to eat a good portion of the remaining contact. Kelsey has three years left on the deal he signed last year and he's likely not going anywhere in that time.

Ryan Denney:

It may surprise some that Ryan Denney isn't really hurting in the wallet either. He has two two seasons left on his contract and rotoworld reports that he has a cap number of $2.3 million in 2008 and $2.4 million in 2009. WGR reports that he has a '08 cap hit of $3.1 million (that's good for 10th highest '08 cap hit on the team - just below all-pros Jason Peters and Lee Evans). Regardless of which figure is accurate that's a lot of money for a number 3 DE.

Bottom line:

Schobel and Kelsey (and especially Denney) are over-paid for their productivity and ability, there is no denying that (in '07 they had 10 sacks among the three of them - total!). However, there is also no denying the numbers. If you use WGR's numbers, together they have three of the top ten salaries on the roster in '08 (first, fourth, and tenth), totaling an absurd $16.8 million. That's 15% of the entire cap space in '08! Although many of us would like an upgrade, in the end the Bills have invested heavily in these guys, and for better for worse, they have to play the hand they dealt themselves. I agree with many that the DE position could be upgraded when solely looking at the talent level. But when the contracts and investments are taken into consideration (along with the coaching staff's seemingly high praise for these guys) reality sets in. A lot of people are talking about drafting Gholston or Havey in the first round and I find that AMAZINGLY unrealistic. With the position they are in now, look for them to add pass rushing specialist that can spell Kelsey on obvious passing situations. Whether they look to the draft or free agency to fill that need, I don't know. I do know that I would be shocked if the Bills invested big FA money or a high draft pick on a DE this off-season.

Again, not becuase I beleive in the talent (I don't) but becuase I beleive Marv's two biggest mistakes at GM were the two contracts he gave to Schobel and Kelsey.

Just another great fan opinion shared on the pages of BuffaloRumblings.com.

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Comments

just to note...

I loved Marv as GM and thought he did a spectacular job overall. The only two decisions I didn't like were giving Kelsey such a large deal and then giving Schobel a deal to supplement that.

I understand why the did it and I agree with the rationale, I just think they picked the wrong player to do it with.

Essentially, they looked on the roster (and the free agents which Kelsey was at the time) and they asked themselves, who is a real leader on this team? Kelsey - although he was never a super-star (and never will be) was undoubtably one of the team leaders. He was also one of the "high-character" guys Marv loves. So Marv rewarded Kelsey, with the idea that you take care of the guys at the top, the leaders, and that reflects well on the rest of the roster. The younger guys all of a sudden know that if they do the right things, they will be taken care of. It's a great concept and I appuld Marv for doing it. There was just one problem, they picked the wrong guy.

They gave an average-at-best DE a large contract. This resulted in the necessity to re-do their pro-bowl DE's contract who was now making a substantial amount less (even though HE had just received a contract extension a few years back and still had 3 years left on his deal). So they go and pay Schobel accordingly. Unfortunately for Buffalo, they did so after his first Pro-Bowl year which means his value was at an all-time high (and may have been inflated by some estimates). Regardless, this noval concept of Marv's left the team with two defensive end on the roster with VERY large salaries and a skill level far below that of the Bruce Smith's and Phil Hanson's of the world.

It's unfortunate, but it's what we have to live with for now.

John I.

by jri111 on Feb 14, 2008 1:54 PM EST reply actions

My fingers cramped up just reading this

That was a very well written,well researched post, nice job.

First let me say that I have been very much so, and still am on the side of a first round DE. I have never been naive enough to believe that the Bills would be drafting a starter. Given the salary, experience and the leadership skills that Schobel, Kelsay, and even Denney have if the Bills took a DE anywhere in the draft, he would be situational for his first year.

When I looked at the draft I believed (and still do) that the talents that would be available to the Bills for a DE at #11 are far greater than what they could get later. Where as the other positions that the Bills could grab there (CB,LB,and even DT) where much deeper in the draft, and could by be picked later.

If the Bills were to pass on a Harvey or Gholston, Who else in the draft even comes close to them in talent? CB is loaded, the Bills could grab a guy like McKelvin, or Jenkins at 11 or someone like Thomas, or Cason later. LB is the same way Rivers or Conner at 11 or Erin Henderson or Ali Highsmith later.

I strongly believe that a fast pass rusher needs to be brought in, and at #11 made the most sense.

Schobel and Kelsay aren't going anywhere, anytime soon, but would it hurt to have a guy spend time as a situational pass rusher for 1 or 2 years before being given the starting role? And who cares about how much money those three are making, all I keep hearing about is how much cap room this team has. Nick has pointed out many times that we have a QB making 3rd round pick money, so we take those savings and apply them to DE.

Man do I miss #78

by sireric on Feb 14, 2008 2:25 PM EST up reply actions

DEs

Schobel, Kelsay, and Denney combined for 25.5 sacks in 2006 and while they played poorly overall in 2007, Kelsay and Denney missed several games, and as long as we're giving out passes for injuries everywhere else on the roster, I'm not sure why DE has drawn the distinct ire of this community. Adding a DE in the 3rd-4th round of the draft sufficiently addresses this position in terms of comparing it to more glaring needs on the team specifically WR, DT, WLB, TE, and CB. Waiting for the 3rd round to address the DE rotation is a sufficient prescription for this position (for crying out loud, we found the next Joe Montana, Trent Edwards in the 3rd round last year; I'm sure Modrak can tab the next Deacon Jones in this, a much deeper draft). I think adding a rookie rusher to the mix will help this season and if Schobel, Kelsay, and Denney don't fall completely back into their 2006 form, we'll have a 2nd year player with playing time under his belt ready to win a starting job for 2009. With the state of the current roster, DE takes a back seat this offseason. We need to look at addressing our offense first, which was historically inept last season, before looking to add rotational players to a defense that was merely mediocre to subpar.

Nick (Bensalem, PA)

by Nick BensalemPA on Feb 14, 2008 2:26 PM EST up reply actions

agreed about priority...

I think I can summarize my feelings about the Bills DE position like this...

I think Schobel is an above average DE in the league. By that I mean that he is a good pass rusher with average skills against the run. He's a franchise player that, IMO, is not really pro bowl caliber.

Kelsey is an average DE that is mediocore as a pass rusher and slightly below average against the run.

Denney is another average DE that is very very very slightly below Kelsey in terms of overall skill.

If I were running the Bills I WOULD NOT have given Kelsey the contract he got. Instead I would have offered him one similiar to Denney's and if he did not accept it, I would have looked to the draft to find a replacement.

As far as Schobel goes, well I would have left well enough alone. I did not like much of what Tom Donahoe did in his time in Buffalo, but perhaps his best move was rewarding Schobel with a contract extension before he became good (for those who don't remember Schobel signed a five-year deal worth about $23 million that included a $6.75 million signing bonus when he was 27 - two years prior to signing his current extension last summer). Becuase Kelsey got his new deal the Bills were forced to re-up Schobel, even though he had three years remaining on his old contract.

Overall then, I would not have offered Kelsey a contract like the one he was offered, and therefore, would have had no need to give Schobel a new extension a mere two years after he had already received one.

But hey, not everything goes as we plan. I now find myself torn. I do not think that either Schobel or Kelsey are worth the money they were given, however, I do think they are both decent/good/average/fill in the blank starters in this league. Would I like an upgrade? Sure. do I expect one? No. Would I look for one if I inherited the team as GM tomorrow? No, of course not. The Bills are invested in these players and although they my never be hall of famers, the position is a lot deeper then others on the team.

I think DT, WR, TE, LB and CB are all much, MUCH bigger needs then DE.

In the end, in the situation the bills are in now, a 2nd-5th round pick (who ideally specializes in pass rushing) will be a perfect fit in the rotation.

John I.

by jri111 on Feb 15, 2008 1:27 AM EST up reply actions

I get what you're saying

Here's my point:

Who would you draft that would be a good fit. I'm sure you can rattle off a few names, but none of them are as good as Gholston, Harvey, or Groves, they are top tier DEs. I went through the positions before, LB, CB, and WR are all so deep why take one in the first when you can grab a solid one later? and there is no TE worthy of the top pick in this draft.

I don't care how much money this team has invested in DE already, they need more help, lets get some good help.

Man do I miss #78

by sireric on Feb 15, 2008 7:03 AM EST up reply actions

Money should not matter

It does not matter how much money we have thrown into the DE positions the fact of the matter is THEY (schobel, Kelsay, Denney) are not getting the job done. Watching the Giants pester Brady all day in the Super Bowl showed that a D-Line that can pressure is all you need. And looking at the Giants look how much money they have tied up in Strahan, Osi, Tuck, and even Kiwanuka. Do you think that they are happy now they have so much invested in the ends, I mean they are Super Bowl Champions. I am totally with sireric on this one why would you pass up a talent like Gholston, or Harvey for finanial reasons? If they are the BPA and one of them will be then why not grab one? NO reason not to if we ever relly want to compete with the PATS we will have to get some pressure going.

Playoff Bound in '08!

by SP @ Buffalo Rumblings on Feb 15, 2008 10:42 AM EST reply actions

welcome aboard friend

What took you so long, you should have been posting on this site months ago.

If this team has so much cap space what does it hurt to invest some more money in a good DE?

Man do I miss #78

by sireric on Feb 15, 2008 10:51 AM EST up reply actions

i'm all for spending money

just not putting all my eggs at one position.

I would MUCH rather have Buffalo go after a big time free agent DT (Corey Williams), LB (Lance Briggs), CB (Drayton Florence), or WR (Porter, et. al.) then invest MORE money in the DE position.

Why not draft a player in the mid-rounds and develop him behind Kelsey. He can contribute the the rotation right away and possibly replace Kelsey when his contract is up in a few years. This allows you to invest your money in other positions of need (positions - I agrue are much more in need then DE) while getting a young-cheap rookie to develope.

I just don't see the argument because one team won a superbowl with good DEs means that you automatically NEED a surplus at the position to win a championship.

I would also argue that improving the DT position and LBs would go much further to improving the Defense then adding another DE to the mix.

John I.

by jri111 on Feb 15, 2008 11:01 AM EST up reply actions

I don't think that's the point

I think the point of surplusing at DE is to finally compete with the Pats. This Bills team isn't going to accomplish anything until we can consistently compete with New England. We do that by putting pressure on Tommy Perfect.

One step at a time. Take out New England, then take out the world.

Create a free account to join in the discussion, Bills fans!

by Brian Galliford on Feb 15, 2008 11:06 AM EST up reply actions

Don't undervalue a 3rd Rounder

I think the point of contention I have with the DE wing of this community is that you guys believe Gholston, Harvey, and possibly Groves are sure things (because of their position?) while players at other positions are deemed too risky or unlikely to help in 2008. To me, other than QBs, the bust factor/ability to produce as a rookie liklihood is on the individual players and carries almost equal risk/reward. I don't believe in any "canned" rules of the draft. Each draft is unique and each team has unique needs. I view Buffalo's unique needs at DE as secondary to five other positions. We need an end who can contribute in the rotation this year and by next year could push Denney for a roster spot or even Kelsay for a starting spot. I think such a player can be found in the 3rd round and that lets us focus on positions of greater immediate need in free agency and day 1 of the draft. All (warrented) skepticism about Jauron/Edwards/Schonert aside, if this team fails to improve on 7-9 next year, we're probably looking at starting over again. We need to fill the most glaring holes this offseason and I view the spots manned by Peerless Price, Josh Reed, Keith Ellison, Kyle Williams, and Robert Royal on last year's depth chart as much more glaring than the place of Anthony Hargrove who can be replaced and IMPROVED UPON in the 3rd round.

Nick (Bensalem, PA)

by Nick BensalemPA on Feb 15, 2008 11:43 AM EST up reply actions

3rd round DE

I've said all along that Gholston, Harvey, and Groves, are the best DEs, and still believe they are. Who do you see being around in round three that could be comparable to them?

Man do I miss #78

by sireric on Feb 15, 2008 12:07 PM EST up reply actions

Comparable?

Since when can you find a top 20 prospect in the third round? Regardless of position, there won't be anyone comparable to the players the Bills could draft with the 11th pick.

Nick said the Bills could find "an end who can contribute in the rotation this year and by next year could push Denney for a roster spot or even Kelsay for a starting spot." in the third round. Chris Ellis isn't much of a dropoff from Groves and can be had sometime in the second round. I think Jason Jones would be a good fit in the third round. He has the athleticism to make an immediate impact as a situational rusher. Same goes for Chris Harrington. Cliff Avril of Purdue might be available as late as the fifth round and could contrubute this season. Angelo Craig of Cincinatti and Jameel McClain of Syracuse could also be had late. The most intiguing late round end prospect is Tommy Blake from TCU. He had a monstrous 06 season, then suffered some injuries and put on a lot of weight. He barely played in 07 and had a pretty bad showing at the senior bowl. If Blake had repeated his 06 success in 07 he would be considered a 1-2 round prospect. He would be a great flier pick in the fifth round.

I realize none of those guys (outisde of Ellis) has the big-time potential of Harvey and Groves; however, I think the dropoff in the DE position isn't as big as you are making it out to be.

by kaisertown on Feb 15, 2008 1:59 PM EST up reply actions

Comparable?

"Since when can you find a top 20 prospect in the third round?"

Thats exactly my point. When you tell me the most intriguing late round pick could be a guy who was fat and injured his whole senior season, I see a pretty big drop off. Are there guys other than Groves or Harvey who could help at DE? OF COURSE, but if you can get Groves or Harvey, why pass? To get a CB who you can get comparable talent to in the later rounds?

I don't have to have a DE at #11, I just think it makes the most sense, and I don't care how much money it costs to do it. Not all of you agree and thats fine, you don't have to.

Man do I miss #78

by sireric on Feb 15, 2008 2:16 PM EST up reply actions

Maybe

Johnny Dingle from West Virginia. I saw a lot of him on those Thursday night ESPN games this year and 22 sacks is hard to ignore. I remember people somewhat scoffing at the huge collegiate sack totals of players like Elvis Dumerville and Terell Suggs but I think such players prove that the skill of getting to the QB translates to the next level. In any case, I hate pinpointing players for the draft in February. I just don't think you can tell where other teams are going to take players. I'd rather look at what we have in terms of draft picks (after we sign Corey Williams) and say, we have 4 picks in the first three rounds: Let's try and come out of that with at least 3 out of 5 for WLB, WR, TE, DE, CB. I think getting a player such as Dingle in the 3rd round is what the DE position on our roster calls for especially if passing on a Harvey or Groves allows us to use the 1st pick on a bigger hole.

Nick (Bensalem, PA)

by Nick BensalemPA on Feb 15, 2008 2:07 PM EST up reply actions

22 sacks

Dingle didn't have 22 sacks last year; I must have been thinking of someone else. But he's a very active end who I really liked at West Virginia.

Nick (Bensalem, PA)

by Nick BensalemPA on Feb 15, 2008 2:33 PM EST up reply actions

Agreed...kinda

I'm not saying we have to go give more huge money to a DE nor am I saying that because the Giants did it we Have to do the same, but in reality we do need an upgrade at DE and I am all for drafting one but if a DE is the BPA at 11 which is probably going to be the case than we should take one and not pass on one because money! It would be a lot wiser to grab a DE who deserves the spot than reach for a WR at that spot and actually my top choice if available is Keith Rivers!

Playoff Bound in '08!

by SP @ Buffalo Rumblings on Feb 15, 2008 3:05 PM EST up reply actions

The Giants DEs

Actually Strahan only made 4 mil this year. Umenyiora is the big earner on the line making about 7 mil a season. Kiwanuka is on his rookie contract and made a little less than 2 mil this season. Tuck was also on his rookie contract and wasn't making much at all. Tuck's extension is for about 6 mil a year, but it was also given with the assumption that Strahan will retire this offseason or next.

Jri111's diary on the Bill's DEs and their salaries

The 11th pick of the draft will receive a salary of around 3.5 mil. The Bills were already spending more than the Giants on DEs (and thats including the salary of Kiwanuka, their starting strongside linebacker). Tuck's extension only makes it look like the Giants are high rollers at the position. When Strahan retires, NY will be paying their DEs just like everyone else in the league.

Either way I think money is an irrelevant argument. The Bills will decide they have X dollars to spend during free agency. The Draft will cost the Bills the same amount, salary-wise, regardless of the order of the positions they take. The Bills will spend the exact same amount regardless of what their priorites are. If they think DE is their biggest need they should have no problem addressing it financially.

by kaisertown on Feb 15, 2008 1:37 PM EST up reply actions

haha

I just realized I linked his diary .... in his diary. I guess it would just be faster to scroll up.

by kaisertown on Feb 15, 2008 1:44 PM EST up reply actions

OLB/DE

PARDON ME,
This is just a thought....
But i am more interested in a OLB/DE like Vernon goulston or Derick Harvey. Someone who can switch things up a bit in coverage and blitz.

jimmy

by sabreonekenobi on Feb 15, 2008 3:08 PM EST reply actions

Re:

We don't have that hybrid position built in to this defense. Yes, Schobel and Kelsay occasionally line up standing up to confuse opponents, but we're a 4-3 base. 2 ends and 2 outside linebackers.

The thought is interesting, though, because of how often the team zone blitzes. We saw Schobel and Kelsay covering backs and tight ends often on third downs last year. If the Bills really want to utilize that, they should find an athlete with good lateral movement skills that can actually do that.

Create a free account to join in the discussion, Bills fans!

by Brian Galliford on Feb 15, 2008 3:13 PM EST up reply actions

more athletic

Ghoston (He won't slide past the 8th pick, I don't know why people keep bringing him up) and Harvey and Groves are defensive ends that have little or no experience playing linebacker. They are only considered hybrid types because they have the athleticism to play outside in a 3-4 scheme. If drafted, these players would be expected to get to the quarterback, as that is there biggest asset. Why draft a pass rushing specialist in the first round if you don't want him to rush the passer almost every down that he is out there. That said, it would be nice to add a more athletic player to the defensive line.

by kaisertown on Feb 15, 2008 3:37 PM EST up reply actions

Gholston

Everyone thought the same thing about Terrell Suggs, and he dropped to the Ravens.

Man do I miss #78

by sireric on Feb 15, 2008 3:44 PM EST up reply actions

yup

Suggs dropped like an anchor ...... all the way to 10th overall. It's hard to envision a mock where Gholston makes it to 11. I'll try though:

MIA - Chris Long
STL - Jake Long
OAK - Glenn Dorsey
ATL - Sedrick Ellis
KC - Ryan Clady
NYJ - Darren McFadden
NE - Leodis McKelvin
BAL - Matt Ryan
CIN - Keith Rivers
NO - Mike Jenkins
BUF - VERNON GHOLSTON

Gholston is a great fit for the Chiefs (only in the unlikely event that Allen leaves), Jets, Patriots, Ravens (if Suggs leaves)and Bengals (even if Smith doesn't leave). I doubt all those teams actually pass on him

Maybe, and this is a big maybe, if Atlanta and Baltimore both draft quarterbaks AND if Harvey goes off at the combine and moves ahead of Gholston on Cinci's draft board.

by kaisertown on Feb 15, 2008 4:21 PM EST up reply actions