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An interesting study on pass rushing prospects

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For those of you that appreciate statistical analysis in studying the game of football, we always recommend checking out Football Outsiders. Today, the folks at FO introduced a new model called SackSEER, which projects the future success of elite collegiate pass rushers more accurately than anything currently known to mankind. Aside from the front office of the Pittsburgh Steelers, that is.

If you get a moment this afternoon, make sure to take a look at FO's introduction to SackSEER, because not only does the article tie directly to our Buffalo Bills, it also applies the model to this year's top group of pass rushers.

Which pass rusher drafted in the top two rounds over the past decade had the highest SackSEER projection, you ask? Why, that'd be our very own Aaron Schobel, who was projected to accumulate 40.1 sacks through the first five years of his career (a figure he eclipsed with 46.5 sacks). Meanwhile, Erik Flowers graded out pitifully, and his career production followed a similar pattern.

So which 2010 NFL Draft prospect grades out best with SackSEER? That'd be TCU's Jerry Hughes, who is a sleeper candidate to be chosen by Buffalo at No. 9 overall. Georgia Tech's Derrick Morgan, USC's Everson Griffen and Michigan's Brandon Graham also score reasonably well, though none of those four names are flagged as elite pass rushing prospects. Texas' Sergio Kindle, Florida's Carlos Dunlap and South Florida's Jason Pierre-Paul do not fare so well in the analysis.

Be sure to check this one out, folks - it sheds a different angle on the discussion of Buffalo possibly taking a pass rusher with their first round pick.