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2011 NFL Draft: Is Bill Parcells' QB Formula Antiquated?

Bill Parcells is famous in NFL Draft circles for his formula, as it were, for drafting quarterbacks. Per the Parcells criteria, quarterbacks must be senior college graduates with three years of starting experience and at least 23 wins.

Over at, I took a look at first-round quarterbacks over the past six years, using Parcells' formula as a predictor for future success. The results? Not particularly spiffy, to say the least. The NFL Draft has become more junior-centric in recent seasons, thanks in large part to rising rookie salaries and general league urgency, and as a result, we've seen fewer prospects fit Parcells' list of requirements, and even fewer who did pan out.

I've seen this Parcells formula brought up frequently by NFL fans - and Buffalo Bills fans in particular (obviously) - when talking about the possibility of their team selecting, well, any of the top quarterback prospects this year. Cam Newton, Blaine Gabbert and Ryan Mallett are all junior entrants, while senior four-year starter Jake Locker falls well short of the win requirement.

For those of you who still put a lot of stock in this formula: would you be more comfortable with the Bills taking a guy like Iowa's Ricky Stanzi (three-year starter, 27 wins), Nevada's Colin Kaepernick (over three-year starter, 32 wins) or TCU's Andy Dalton (four-year starter, 42 wins)? Or do you buck the trend like recent juniors, roll the dice, and take a talent like Gabbert, Newton or Mallett?