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Bills vs. Jets 2013: EJ Manuel vs. Geno Smith film breakdown

EJ Manuel and Geno Smith are on very different statistical trajectories early in their NFL careers as starting quarterbacks - but they're a lot closer as prospects than the current gap would indicate.

By Brian Galliford
  • (1 of 2) Scott Chandler holds two linebackers in the short area of the field, and Stevie Johnson has tons of field to work with on his post. (NFL Game Rewind)
  • (2 of 2) EJ Manuel's throw is way off target; the pass is yards off the mark to the inside, and a diving Johnson has no chance to make a play. (NFL Game Rewind)
  • (1 of 2) This time, it's C.J. Spiller holding Panthers defenders underneath, and Chandler breaking free down the field behind the decoy. (NFL Game Rewind)
  • (2 of 2) Manuel's throw is egregiously high and behind Chandler, who adjusts his route to try to make a play to no avail. (NFL Game Rewind)
  • Johnson finds a hole in the Panthers secondary up the seam, and Manuel delivers a strike for a first down. (NFL Game Rewind)
  • T.J. Graham beats Captain Munnerlyn on a vertical route with ease, and safety Charles Godfrey is late getting into the play. Manuel can't get the ball out in front of Graham, who has to hit the brakes just to prevent an interception. (NFL Game Rewind)
  • (1 of 2) Here, again, we see Bills receivers (Chandler and Spiller) holding Panthers defenders close to the line, with a Bills receiver (Robert Woods) breaking free behind on a post. (NFL Game Rewind)
  • (2 of 2) This is another strike from Manuel, who hits Woods in stride and allows his fellow rookie to pick up some extra yardage after the catch. (NFL Game Rewind)
  • On the Bills' game-winning drive, a Luke Kuechly pass interference on Johnson (pictured) negates a pick. We'll leave it to you to decide if Johnson could have gotten enough air on a high throw to prevent the pick. (NFL Game Rewind)
  • Geno Smith throws a strike up the seam. Stephen Hill caught this pass in stride, then promptly fumbled as he ran after the catch. (NFL Game Rewind)
  • (1 of 2) Santonio Holmes breaks free on a crossing route for a big gain down the field. See next slide for why this throw was so impressive. (NFL Game Rewind)
  • (2 of 2) Smith is able to hit Holmes in stride despite the fact that he can't follow through on his throw - he takes a big hit from Chandler Jones and delivers a strike. (NFL Game Rewind)
  • Clyde Gates, filling in for the injured Jeremy Kerley, can't come down with a well-placed deep ball to help out his rookie quarterback. (NFL Game Rewind)
  • This time it's Hill that can't make a play on a well-placed deep ball. Note the double-coverage; Smith is very willing to take chances downfield. (NFL Game Rewind)
  • This was Smith's best throw against New England - a laser to the right sideline to the toe-tapping Holmes for a completion. (NFL Game Rewind)
  • Ryan Spadola, an undrafted rookie out of Lehigh, can't hang on as Smith throws up the seam again. (NFL Game Rewind)
  • (1 of 2) Alfonzo Dennard takes an inside position on a fly pattern. Smith throws the ball to the outside shoulder, giving Hill the opportunity to adjust and make the catch. (NFL Game Rewind)
  • (2 of 2) Hill makes the catch on Smith's adjusted deep throw over the top of Dennard. (NFL Game Rewind)
  • Smith threw this ball across his body as he rolled out to the right. It's a touch off target, but it hits Hill in the hands. Hill dropped it. (NFL Game Rewind)
  • Here's another example of Smith being willing to put a ball into trouble to let his receiver make a play. Hill didn't catch this, but it wasn't close to being picked. (NFL Game Rewind)
  • On his second of three fourth-quarter interceptions, the oft-pressured Smith does not step into a throw and loses velocity up the seam. The throw is off-target, and Dennard steps in front for an easy pick. (NFL Game Rewind)
  • (1 of 1) Trying to tie the game late, Smith makes a bad read, trying to fit the ball between a corner and a safety up the right sideline instead of targeting the man coverage in the middle of the field. The ball is underthrown, and it's another easy pick. (NFL Game Rewind)
  • (2 of 2) Here's that previous throw from the end zone angle. The ball needs to carry further upfield; the receiver can't even hit the brakes fast enough to prevent the interception. (NFL Game Rewind)

Two rookie quarterbacks will be squaring off when the Buffalo Bills take on the New York Jets in New Jersey this weekend. EJ Manuel and Geno Smith are both 1-1 in their first two NFL starts, with one-point wins over NFC South teams and one-score losses to the New England Patriots on the books.

Statistically, that's where the comparisons end - particularly after their respective Week 2 performances, when Manuel engineered a game-winning scoring drive and Smith threw three fourth-quarter interceptions in a loss. Here's where the two players stand after two games apiece.

Player Comp Att % Yds YPA TD INT Sack FL QBR
EJ Manuel 45 66 68.2 446 6.8 3 1 1 1 95.9
Geno Smith 39 73 53.4 470 6.4 1 4 9 1 55.2

Taking a closer look at the tape, however, tells a slightly different story than the numbers do. (Don't get me wrong, the numbers tell an important story; Manuel is in a better place development-wise than Smith is right now.)

When you compare the two making throws - particularly throws down the field, which NFL quarterbacks need to do consistently to stick in this league - things even out a bit. In Week 2, Smith may have even been better in that particular facet of the game. Take a look at the gallery above for an in-depth look at how Manuel and Smith fared on vertical throws this past week; hover over the photos for explanations of what you're seeing.

Despite the gap between the two that exists almost exclusively because Manuel has avoided big mistakes and Smith hasn't (and the fact that Manuel has a game-winning drive on his CV and doesn't play for the Jets certainly helps), the gap between the two as passers isn't huge. Manuel is the hotter hand right now, but those anointing him while simultaneously writing off Smith as a bad job may end up grievously mistaken, and possibly as soon as Week 3.

Take away the surrounding circumstances - the turmoil that is the Jets organization, the relative stability afforded the Bills in year one of a new regime, et al - and the Bills and the Jets are remarkably similar football teams entering their showdown this Sunday. Both are 1-1 in two closely contested football games. Both teams run virtually the same defense. And, despite conventional wisdom, both feature rookie quarterbacks on a relatively even playing field.

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