The Buffalo Bills head into Thursday night's matchup against the New York Jets looking to improve their chances of competing in the AFC playoff race. For fantasy owners, Week 10 also carries great importance, as owners look to secure playoff spots over the final stretch of the season. Bye weeks and injuries magnify each decision that is made; this is coming from the guy who kept both Karlos Williams and Sammy Watkins on his bench last week. On paper, the Jets provide a particularly tough matchup for the Bills' running backs, and somewhat of a surprisingly favorable match-up for the passing game.
The Jets currently have the NFL's top-rated run defense, surrendering just 80 yards rushing per game. Their opponents average 3.8 yards per carry, the seventh-lowest average in the league. With that being said, teams that have committed to the run against the Jets have experienced some success. Ryan Mathews had 108 yards on 24 carries in Philadelphia's Week 3 win, and Latavius Murray ran for 113 yards for Oakland in Week 8. For the LeSean McCoy and Karlos Williams owners out there: I see McCoy as an RB2 and Williams as a FLEX option against the Jets. McCoy is probable with a shoulder injury.
While the Jets have had success against the run this season, the defense has struggled against the pass over the past three weeks. Tom Brady (355 yards), Derek Carr (333), and Blake Bortles (381) have all experienced varying degrees of success against the Jets. The health of Sammy Watkins will obviously be critical to the success of Tyrod Taylor, who is likely to attempt more than the 12 passes he did against Miami. While Watkins will likely draw Darrelle Revis on Thursday, others have experienced success against him this season. Just last weekend, Allen Robinson caught six passes for 122 yards against Revis. Watkins can be counted on as a WR2 or FLEX play, while Taylor is a low-end QB1.
I may choose to gamble on Charles Clay for one more week, even though he has provided little support for fantasy owners as of late. At this point, I am considering last week's one catch on one target performance as an exception to the norm, based on the extremely limited number of pass attempts for the Bills. If he puts up another weak performance against the Jets, however, it may be time to look at other options down the stretch.
Best of luck in your matchups this week, and I look forward to your questions and comments below.