The Buffalo Bills have rattled off three straight wins to get to 3-2. Right now, that places them in a tie for the sixth playoff spot with the Baltimore Ravens. That doesn’t mean the analysis-based playoff predictions don’t favor the Bills.
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Technically speaking, teams that are 3-2 make the playoffs 50% of the time according to this graphic from analytics site FiveThirtyEight.com . But FiveThirtyEight actually gives Buffalo a much better chance than that this year. Taking into account score differential, the unexpected nature of their wins, and more, the website actually gives Buffalo a 65% chance of making the playoffs, the fifth-best number in the AFC. Buffalo is this week’s biggest favorite on the site, too, giving ten points to the San Francisco 49ers.
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ESPN has also introduced their playoff prediction metric called FPI. Buffalo has the fourth-highest ranking in the AFC, despite being well behind the New England Patriots for the top of the division. The Bills are four spots clear of a muddled AFC pack.
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Over at Football Outsiders, Buffalo has a 58.3% chance of making the playoffs but only an average win total of nine. That win total is up 18% over last week following their win over the Rams.
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We know. We know. The Bills have disappointed us before.
We know. We know. This is way too early to be discussing playoffs.
Just give us this moment while we still have it.