The Buffalo Bills have rattled off three straight wins to get to 3-2. Right now, that places them in a tie for the sixth playoff spot with the Baltimore Ravens. That doesn’t mean the analysis-based playoff predictions don’t favor the Bills.
Technically speaking, teams that are 3-2 make the playoffs 50% of the time according to this graphic from analytics site FiveThirtyEight.com . But FiveThirtyEight actually gives Buffalo a much better chance than that this year. Taking into account score differential, the unexpected nature of their wins, and more, the website actually gives Buffalo a 65% chance of making the playoffs, the fifth-best number in the AFC. Buffalo is this week’s biggest favorite on the site, too, giving ten points to the San Francisco 49ers.
ESPN has also introduced their playoff prediction metric called FPI. Buffalo has the fourth-highest ranking in the AFC, despite being well behind the New England Patriots for the top of the division. The Bills are four spots clear of a muddled AFC pack.
Over at Football Outsiders, Buffalo has a 58.3% chance of making the playoffs but only an average win total of nine. That win total is up 18% over last week following their win over the Rams.
We know. We know. The Bills have disappointed us before.
We know. We know. This is way too early to be discussing playoffs.
Just give us this moment while we still have it.