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NFL playoff odds, Week 7: Buffalo Bills solidifying position

The Bills moved into playoff position on Sunday and analytics puts them in the driver’s seat.

After four consecutive victories, the Buffalo Bills sit in sixth in the AFC playoff race. With six teams making the final cut, it should be an encouragement to Bills fans everywhere that Buffalo is in the driver’s seat. You should be further bolstered by the analytics.

According to this chart from, teams that are 4-2 make the playoffs 62% of the time. But FiveThirtyEight actually gives Buffalo a much better chance than that. Taking into account score differential, the unexpected nature of their wins, and more, the website gives Buffalo a 72% chance of making the playoffs with a projected ten wins, the sixth-best number in the AFC:

Football Outsiders gives the Bills the best chance to make the playoffs of any analytics site. According to their analysis, Buffalo has a 75.7% chance of making the playoffs. That’s the second-highest number among all the teams in the AFC behind only the Patriots. It also represents a huge 17% jump over a week ago and 30% increase from two weeks ago.

ESPN’s playoff prediction metric, the Football Power Index, had the Bills jumping into the top four teams. Buffalo moves five spots into second place in the AFC and nine spots ahead of the next Wild Card contender.

We know. We know. The Bills have disappointed us before.

We know. We know. This is way too early to be discussing playoffs.

Just give us this moment while we still have it.