NFL playoffs odds, Week 8: Buffalo Bills 50-50 after loss

The Buffalo Bills fell from playoff position with their loss to the Miami Dolphins on Sunday. They now sit seventh in the AFC and will need some help to get back into position, but most analytics aren’t as down on Buffalo as Bills fans are.

FiveThirtyEight.com

At 4-3, Buffalo has a 50-50 shot of making the playoffs according to historical data from FiveThirtyEight.com. Obviously, being at 75% after a win in Miami would have been better. Taking into account score differential, the unexpected nature of their wins, and more, the website also gives this specific Buffalo team a 50% chance of making the playoffs with a projected 9.4 wins, the sixth-best number in the AFC:

FiveThirtyEight.com

Over at Football Outsiders, they ran their simulations with an interesting twist. They ran some of their simulations with an injured Bills star in the lineup and some without.

“Buffalo rating is 5.0% lower with LeSean McCoy out. He misses Week 8 in 80 percent of simulations, Week 9 in 60 percent of simulations, and Week 11 in 20 percent of simulations.”

FootballOutsiders.com

While Buffalo’s 51.1% chance of making the playoffs is sixth in the AFC, one of the AFC South teams is required to make it, putting Buffalo in seventh position in the playoff race. That’s a precipitous drop from 75% and second place in the conference where they were last week.

ESPN’s playoff prediction metric is Football Power Index, and that still keeps the Bills very, very high. They dropped one spot from four to five but are third in the AFC. That gives Buffalo the most hope.

It’s not as much fun talking about the playoffs after a Bills loss. Hopefully we can spend some time talking about a win a week from now.