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NFL playoffs odds, Week 11: Buffalo Bills sink

The Bills got little help over their bye week.

The Buffalo Bills have continued to fall further and further back in the AFC playoff race following three consecutive losses and their bye week. What chance are the analytics websites giving them? Not much.

FiveThirtyEight.com

At 4-5, Buffalo has a 12% shot of making the playoffs according to historical data from FiveThirtyEight.com. Taking into account score differential, the unexpected nature of their wins, and more, the website gives this specific Buffalo team a 20% chance of making the playoffs with a projected 8.3 wins, the tenth-best number in the AFC:

Week 11 playoff odds
FIveThirtyEight.com

Over at Football Outsiders, they ran their simulations but has now eliminated Buffalo’s defensive game against Jacoby Brissett from their calculations due to its outlier status. Essentially, the Bills defense did way better in that game than the rest of the season so it doesn’t predict how they will perform against other teams. Buffalo’s 13.6% chance of making the playoffs is twelfth in the AFC and dropped 4% from last week over the bye:

FootballOutsiders.com graphic
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/playoffodds

ESPN’s analytics metric is Football Power Index, and that still keeps the Bills very high relative to their record. They moved up two spots last week to sixth. That gives Buffalo the most hope.

ESPN Football Power Index Week 11
http://www.espn.com/blog/statsinfo/post/_/id/126375/seahawks-move-up-to-no-2-in-espns-football-power-index

It’s not as much fun talking about the playoffs after a Bills loss. Hopefully we can spend some time talking about a win a week from now.