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NFL playoff odds, Week 9: Buffalo Bills below 33% in analytics

The Bills have sunk like a stone in the analytics predicting a potential playoff run.

Matt Warren is Associate Director of NFL coverage for SB Nation and previously covered the Bills for Buffalo Rumblings for more than a decade.

Playoff odds by record

At 4-4, Buffalo has just a 33% chance of making the playoffs according to historical data from That’s down nearly 30 points from where they were two weeks ago. Taking into account score differential, the unexpected nature of their wins, and more, the website also gives this specific Buffalo team a 31% chance of making the playoffs with a projected 8.7 wins, the seventh-best number in the AFC:

Week 9 Playoff Odds

Over at Football Outsiders, Buffalo is even lower with just 30.5% chance of making the postseason. That figure is eighth in the AFC behind even the Titans. The site isrunning most of their simulations with LeSean McCoy sidelined for Week 9 and some with him also out Week 11.

Football Outsiders

Two weeks ago, Buffalo was second in the conference with a 75% chance of making the playoffs and now they have fallen far.

ESPN’s playoff prediction metric is Football Power Index, and that still keeps the Bills very, very high. They dropped one spot from five to six but are third in the AFC. That gives Buffalo the most hope.

Hopefully we can talk about an uptick in playoff odds a week from now.