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Updated Buffalo Bills elimination scenarios for Week 15

The Miami Dolphins won on Saturday night. How does that change the Bills’ playoff outlook?

The Miami Dolphins and New York Jets played Saturday night and despite being without starting quarterback Ryan Tannehill, the Dolphins won and secured their first winning season in a while. It also meant they pushed to nine wins, something Buffalo can only achieve if they win out.

If the Bills win

If Buffalo wins, they are still alive. Despite ESPN’s Playoff Machine saying Buffalo would lose in a tiebreaker, the Bills are still in it. It would come down to strength of victory, which Buffalo has a lead on currently. FiveThirtyEight.com and the NY Times Playoff Simulator both confirm this.

It should be noted that even if the Bills win, a win by the Denver Broncos later today would end Buffalo’s season. Denver would have a much higher strength of victory than Buffalo after ties in conference record and record vs. common opponents.

If the Bills lose

A Bills loss now eliminates them from the postseason. They need to get to nine wins so a loss in any of the remaining games is the nail in the coffin at 8-8.

Elimination scenarios

  • Denver wins

or

  • Buffalo loses