Updated Tyrod Taylor contract extension projections

With ongoing communication reported throughout the summer and today's report by Ian Rapoport of optimism, it now seems entirely possible, and maybe even likely, that Buffalo Bills quarterback Tyrod Taylor will enter the 2016 season with a new contract. As Taylor is currently only set to count for $3 million against the cap, a new contract would increase that number -€” by how much would depend on the length and structure of the deal. Let's take a look at two different scenarios for a long-term Taylor contract and how each would affect the Bills' 2016 salary cap. Under both extensions, Taylor's 2016 salary cap hit would rise by about $5-$7 million, but even this increase would keep it under $10 million and well before the league average of $13.8 million for starters at the position.

Scenario 1 -€” Two year extension, $30 million in new money ($20 million fully guaranteed)

This contract would be based off of what Sam Bradford signed with the Philadelphia Eagles this past off-season before the Eagles drafted Carson Wentz. Bradford, a pending free agent, received $35 million over two years, with $18 million fully guaranteed and another $4 million as a rolling guarantee that will become full guaranteed in March, 2017.

In my mind, this type of contract, maybe with the numbers increased slightly from this projection, makes great sense for both sides. Taylor, playing this year for less than peanuts by NFL starting quarterback standards, could receive a hefty chunk of money in the form of a $15-$20 million signing bonus. This signing bonus could equate with the cost of the franchise tag that the Bills would have the power to exercise next season. This pre-payment of sorts would seem to remove some of the pressure and injury-risk that has to be going through the mind of Taylor who, despite being in the league for five years now, has never made significant NFL money. Additionally, Taylor, who has to be aware that a successful season under his current contract will inevitably lead to the franchise tag in 2017, would only be under contract with the Bills for one extra season before potentially receiving another longer term contract as he enters his age 30 season in 2019.

For the Bills, they would receive an extra year of Taylor's services for the relatively cheap cost of $10 million. The removal of the flexibility to go in a different direction following this season if Taylor is unsuccessful would be the cost. But this type of deal wouldn't be the more substantial limit on flexibility that a longer and bigger deal would be. The Bills could still choose to move on from Taylor after 2017 and will have only paid what was essentially the 2016 franchise tag. The team wouldn't be locked into a $40-$50 million guaranteed contract for 5-6 years after only one season with Taylor at the helm.

This type of deal seems like a no brainer for Buffalo, whether Taylor and his camp would compromise on total money and long-term security for the immediate removal of significant 2016 risk seems to be the more intriguing question.

As for the salary cap ramifications of this type of deal, Taylor's cap hit would increase just over $6 million in 2016 in exchange for the future flexibility of a short-term contract with more limited time to pro-rate a signing bonus. According to Spotrac, the Bills are currently about $11.8 million under the 2016 salary cap, so the Bills could fit this extension in. Although those talks appear to be moving much slower, any extension the Bills agree to with cornerback Stephon Gilmore would in all likelihood decrease, but not increase, his cap number as well, creating more money for in-season signings/ to roll over to 2017.

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Scenario 2 -€” Four to five year extension averaging around $18 million per year with $37.5 million guaranteed

If the Bills are truly and completely sold on Tyrod Taylor as their long-sought franchise quarterback, then a long-term extension makes complete sense. Taylor's value could go down if he plays poorly in 2016 but could also skyrocket. Good quarterback play in the NFL comes at a premium, and even average quarterback play with potential upside receives $18 million per year (see, Brock Osweiler). As such, if the Bills are confident in Taylor, they may be able to lock him into a contract that will look like a bargain a few years down the road.

For hypothetical's sake, if the Bills were to sign Taylor to a four-year, $75 million ($72 million in new money) extension, it would most likely require about $35-$40 million in guarantees (Osweiler received $37 million). Osweiler and Taylor are very comparable in lack of experience, relative lack of pedigree (Osweiler was drafted #57 overall in 2012), and age (Taylor is about 14 months older than Osweiler). There may still be an inherent bias in the NFL towards the enormous (6'8" - 240 pound) pocket-type passer like Osweiler but, quite frankly, he just wasn't nearly as good as Taylor was in 2015.

Osweiler's 10:6 touchdown to interception ratio is paled by Taylor's 20:6. Osweiler threw for significant yards but his yards per attempt was 7.15 compared to Taylor's 7.99, while his completion percentage was also lower (63.7 to 61.8). While relatively flawed statistics, Osweiler's quarterback rating and ESPN's QBR are both much lower than Taylor's, with Taylor at 99.4 for QB rating and 67.8 for QBR compared to Osweiler at 86.4 for QB rating and 48.8 for QBR. Osweiler was more successful in winning games as a starter (5-2 compared to 8-6) but at times the Broncos defense was winning games in spite of him. Even though Taylor is under the Bills' control for two more seasons, his performance should dictate a contract at least equaling that of Osweiler.

As for the structure and payment schedule, it seems to make sense that the Bills would follow their model concerning other core players and pay a hefty signing bonus that can be pro-rated over the length of the deal. For Taylor, a $25 million signing bonus would be a strong negotiating tactic which the Bills could spread over the length of a four-year contract, keeping his 2016 cap hit relatively low.

Four-year, $72 million extension cash and cap hits:

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