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Bills a 4.5 point underdog at home this week

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Bills and Cardinals no stranger to current betting line.

When the Arizona Cardinals come to Orchard Park on Sunday, they’ll do so as 4.5 point favorites. If the old adage applies, that means that Vegas thinks the Cardinals would be 10.5 point favorites in a home game against our beloved Bills. While players don’t concern themselves with such things, we can debate the merits of the spread as fans (personally, I think it’s about right, and I wouldn’t be surprised if it moved a bit to settle at BUF +4). If you’re thinking about wagering on the game this weekend, here are some trends to note (data from teamrankings.com):

Buffalo as a home underdog

The Bills have found themselves in this situation quite often over the last sixteen years. Going back to 2003, they have been a home ‘dog 42 times. Their record against the spread in those games is 21-19-2. Remember, that’s not a won-loss record, but that includes some heartbreaking losses (the 5 interception game of Tony Romo in 2007 comes immediately to mind) where the Bills Buffaloed—that is, they kept us close only to let us down in the end. In terms of won-loss record, the Bills are 15-27 in those games. When checking more recent data, the Bills are 12-8 ATS since 2010 in this scenario (9-11 in pure W-L); since 2013, the Bills are 8-2 ATS (6-4 in W-L record).

Arizona as a road favorite

The Cardinals have been a dynamite bet as a winner in this scenario, going 17-7 since 2003. Against the spread, however, the Cards are 13-11 in that same time frame. Since 2013, the Cards are 8-3 ATS with a 9-2 won-loss record as road favorites.

Maybe Buffalo can buck the trend and prove Vegas wrong on Sunday, but if I were a gambler, I’d stay far away from this one. As a fan, I’ll just keep hoping for that first “W” of 2016.