The Buffalo Bills have already defeated the Denver Broncos this season, handing the Broncos their first loss of the season in a Week three matchup in Orchard Park. The Bills have yet to the play the Kansas City Chiefs, but they will do so on November 26 at Arrowhead Stadium. Tonight, both the Chiefs and Broncos face off in a pivotal AFC West game.
For Denver, a victory would bring them for 4-3, just a half-game behind the Chiefs, who currently sit on top of the division at 5-2. If the Chiefs win the game, they’ll be 6-2 with their closest competition, Denver, at 3-4. Although there is still plenty of time left in the regular season, this is a huge matchup for teams all around the league.
How does the game influence Buffalo’s playoff chances? Not very much. Currently, the New York Times playoff simulator has the Bills with a 61% chance to make the playoffs, and a 25% chance to win the AFC East. If Denver wins, those odds drop to 58% to make the playoffs with a 13% chance of winning the division. If Kansas City wins, Buffalo’s chances also drop, but a bit less—60% odds to make the playoffs and a 16% chance at the division title. Mix in a victory over the New York Jets on Thursday night combined with a Chiefs’ win tonight, however, and the Bills are looking at 72% playoff odds with a 25% chance at the division title.
In short, it’s probably to Buffalo’s benefit that Kansas City wins tonight, but it doesn’t move the needle all that much. Feel free to discuss Monday Night football, Buffalo’s playoff hopes, and more in tonight’s open thread.