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How the Buffalo Bills will beat the New York Jets

The bar is not very high—but we’re still nervous

NFL: Oakland Raiders at Buffalo Bills Rich Barnes-USA TODAY Sports

Tonight the Buffalo Bills face off against the New York Jets in their first, and only, scheduled primetime game of the 2017 season. It is also just their second division game of the season and their last one until four in the last five weeks. A win this week will go a long, long way to getting the Bills a ticket to the postseason. How will they get that victory? Glad you asked.

The Bills will win if they score over 20 points

The Bills offense, defense, and special teams have all carried the team in different weeks this season. One week it is the offense, the next it is the defense, and even sometimes Stephen Hauschka AKA “Hausch Money” and the special teams have won the day. What has held true week to week is that when the Bills score over 20 points they win. On the other side of the field, the Jets five losses have all come when they’ve given up more than 20 points. With very favorable matchups on both sides of the ball, both major units should be able to handle their end of the bargain and get the team a W.

The Bills are a road favorite and much higher in every power ranking out there. If you’re anything like me and a few other members of the Buffalo Rumblings staff those two facts are making you incredibly nervous. So how can the Bills break our hearts and lose to the lowly Jets?

The Bills will lose if the Jets hold them to under 150 yards passing

The Bills are a run first team, but in 2017 they have required at least some success in the passing game to get wins. They are 0-2 when Tyrod Taylor and Co. have failed to reach 150 yards through the air. Even that relatively low bar has forced defenses to pull players out of the box and respect the aerial threat. If the Bills allow the Jets to stack the box it will be a long day for the offense and the Bills will struggle to get a win.