With a win against New York Jets, Buffalo Bills will move to tie atop AFC playoff picture

The Buffalo Bills face the New York Jets in a critical AFC East match-up tonight on Thursday Night Football. Buffalo, currently fifth in the AFC playoff standings, would make a huge leap into the stratosphere of the conference with a win.

The New England Patriots (6-2) currently stand a half-game in front of Buffalo (5-2). This week, they are on their bye and Buffalo can move into an overall tie with them by beating the Jets but the Bills would also control the tiebreakers.

With a win, Buffalo’s divisional record would move from 1-0 to 2-0, besting New England’s current 1-0 record in the AFC East. That would move the Bills ahead of the Patriots in the standings until at least Sunday, November 12th and put Buffalo into first place in the AFC East at the halfway point of the NFL season.

With the division lead secured, you could begin looking around the AFC. The Pittsburgh Steelers and Kansas City Chiefs are also 6-2. Pittsburgh is on a bye this week while the Chiefs play the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday afternoon in a 4:25 ET kickoff. Buffalo moving to 4-1 in the AFC would tie the Steelers and pass the Chiefs (4-2 AFC). Then it would move into record vs. common opponent territory.

Pittsburgh and Buffalo share games against the Patriots, Chiefs, and Cincinnati Bengals. Pittsburgh is 2-0 in those games while Buffalo is 0-1. You need a minimim of four games for that tiebreaker to apply, and the two teams will get there eventually but haven’t yet. The next tiebreaker is strength of victory, where the Steelers hold a very clear edge.

Here is what the standings would look like with a Bills win tonight. Only the tiebreakers that currently come into play are listed.

AFC Playoff Standings with a Bills win

1. Pittsburgh Steelers (6-2, 4-1 AFC, 2-0 record vs common opponents with BUF)
2. Buffalo Bills (6-2, 4-1 AFC, 0-1 record vs common opponents with PIT)
3. Kansas City Chiefs (6-2, 4-2 AFC, head-to-head win over NE)
4. Tennessee Titans (4-3, head-to-head win over JAX)
5. New England Patriots (6-2, head-to-head loss to KC)
6. Jacksonville Jaguars (4-3, head-to-head loss to TEN, 4-2 AFC)
7. Miami Dolphins (4-3, 3-2 AFC)
8. Baltimore Ravens (4-4)
9t. Houston Texans (3-4, 3-3 AFC)
9t. Cincinnati Bengals (3-4, 3-3 AFC)
11. Denver Broncos (3-4, 2-3 AFC)
12. Los Angeles Chargers (3-5, 2-4 AFC, head-to-head win over OAK)
13. Oakland Raiders (3-5, head-to-head loss to LAC)
14. New York Jets (3-6, 3-4 AFC)
15. Indianapolis Colts (2-6)
16. Cleveland Browns (0-8)

If Buffalo loses, the results aren’t an apocalypse for the Bills and their fans. Buffalo would still be in the same playoff position they are in now; fifth place. They would remain at least tied for that position all weekend, as the Titans, Jaguars, and Dolphins could tie them but not pass them in overall record.

AFC Playoff Standings with a Bills loss

1. Pittsburgh Steelers (6-2, 4-1 AFC)
2. Kansas City Chiefs (6-2, 4-2 AFC, head-to-head win over NE)
3. New England Patriots (6-2, 3-1 AFC head-to-head loss to KC)
4. Tennessee Titans (4-3, head-to-head win over JAX)
5. Buffalo Bills (5-3)
6. Jacksonville Jaguars (4-3, head-to-head loss to TEN, 4-2 AFC)
7. Miami Dolphins (4-3, 3-2 AFC)
8. Baltimore Ravens (4-4)
9. New York Jets (4-5, 4-4 AFC)
10t. Houston Texans (3-4, 3-3 AFC)
10t. Cincinnati Bengals (3-4, 3-3 AFC)
12. Denver Broncos (3-4, 2-3 AFC)
13. Los Angeles Chargers (3-5, 2-4 AFC, head-to-head win over OAK)
14. Oakland Raiders (3-5, head-to-head loss to LAC)
15. Indianapolis Colts (2-6)
16. Cleveland Browns (0-8)