The Buffalo Bills are currently on the outside looking in for one of the Wild Card spots, but they control their own destiny and the Bills haven't had that opportunity in December very much recently.
According to the New York Times, the Bills have a 34-percent chance of making the playoffs after the Week 12 victory in Kansas City. A win at home against the New England Patriots would jump up their chances to 50 percent.
Football Outsiders has the Bills at 36.4 percent prior to their game against the Patriots. New England is Buffalo’s biggest hurdle going forward in their simulations:
Two remaining games against the Patriots give the Bills an uphill climb to reach the postseason. In simulations where they lose to the Patriots twice, the Bills make it only 17 percent of the time. They really need an upset in one of those games if they want to be playing in January.
FiveThirtyEight gives Buffalo just a 31% chance of making the playoffs. A loss to New England and wins over the Colts and Dolphins doesn’t change that much.
Four divisional games in the last five is tough enough, but to be in the middle of a playoff push makes each game much more important. The Miami Dolphins, who they play twice, are tied for 31st in points allowed this season, 30th in points scored and on a five-game losing streak. On paper, the Bills should go at least 3-2 over the home stretch of the season but a win against the Pats this week would put the ball completely in the Bills’ court.