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Buffalo Bills playoff probability, Week 10

How likely is it that the Bills make the playoffs?

The Buffalo Bills are 5-3 and currently sit sixth in the AFC. With a leg up on the competition, the Bills are in a position few expected them to be in entering the second half of the season, but how likely is it that they hold onto their grip of the playoff picture?

According to the playoff teams from 1990 to 2013 listed above from, the Bills have a 67% chances of making the playoffs; two out of every three that have hit 5-3 do. Using the chart, Buffalo’s odds move up to 74% with a win and down to 52% with a loss.

In the New York Times playoff simulator, Buffalo currently stands with a 53% chance of making the postseason based on their simulations. A win over New Orleans boosts them to 60% while a loss knocks them back to 45%.

ESPN’s Brian Burke also notes the Bills have a huge swing in their metrics: Brian Burke - ESPN

The difference between a win and a loss is 23% in playoff chances, even though it’s an NFC game. The reason? Buffalo’s record is already a full game above the rest of the AFC team in the hunt and they can widen their lead.