The Buffalo Bills are 5-3 and currently sit sixth in the AFC. With a leg up on the competition, the Bills are in a position few expected them to be in entering the second half of the season, but how likely is it that they hold onto their grip of the playoff picture?
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According to the playoff teams from 1990 to 2013 listed above from fivethirtyeight.com, the Bills have a 67% chances of making the playoffs; two out of every three that have hit 5-3 do. Using the chart, Buffalo’s odds move up to 74% with a win and down to 52% with a loss.
In the New York Times playoff simulator, Buffalo currently stands with a 53% chance of making the postseason based on their simulations. A win over New Orleans boosts them to 60% while a loss knocks them back to 45%.
ESPN’s Brian Burke also notes the Bills have a huge swing in their metrics:
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The difference between a win and a loss is 23% in playoff chances, even though it’s an NFC game. The reason? Buffalo’s record is already a full game above the rest of the AFC team in the hunt and they can widen their lead.