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Buffalo Bills do not control their own destiny to AFC playoffs

The Ravens have the inside track.

While Buffalo Bills fans argue over whether the team is in sixth or eight place in the AFC standings the only thing that matters, really, is that the team does not control their own destiny to the postseason.

Buffalo (7-6) is tied with the Baltimore Ravens (7-6) and when you go through the list of tiebreakers, the Bills currently eek out out the Ravens in strength of victory based on a technicality. Record vs. common opponents comes before strength of victory in the tiebreaker hierarchy, but there is a four-game minimum to apply this tiebreaker. Buffalo and Baltimore have only played three common games to this point but by the end of the season, they will have played five.

Baltimore currently leads Buffalo in this important tiebreaker, 3-0 to 2-1. If Baltimore and Buffalo both win their remaining games, the Ravens would be dancing and the Bills would be on the outside looking in.

Buffalo’s remaining games: Miami, at New England, at Miami
Baltimore’s remaining games: at Cleveland, Indianapolis, Cincinnati

If both teams win out to get to 10-6, Baltimore’s 5-0 record against common opponents would move them ahead of Buffalo’s 4-1 record thanks to the Bills’ earlier loss to the Bengals.

To look further at this scenario, the Tennessee Titans (8-5) and Jacksonville Jaguars (9-4) also control their own destiny. If both teams keep winning, they stay in playoff position in the AFC South lead and first wild card spot.

To complete this scenario, Buffalo doesn’t have to worry about the Kansas City Chiefs (7-6) or Los Angeles Chargers (7-6) if they win out. The two teams play this week. If Buffalo wins out they will beat the loser of this match-up on overall record for the wild card spot.