The Buffalo Bills, under new management with Sean McDermott and Brandon Beane, have rapidly overhauled their roster ahead of opening day. Franchise mainstays and youthful core players were shipped across the country, replaced with veterans that fit the new regime’s style. It’s a massive transformation under a unified group - one that could pay off, but only if the coach and general manager can deliver success on the field.
Beane and McDermott are in the middle of selling stakeholders on a grand vision of the duo as team-building experts. “Trust the process,” they say with a wink and a nod, laying out the terms as clearly as they were laid out for the Philadelphia 76ers, who embraced the “tank” to a further extent than any other team in modern American sports. Their pitch is simple - Beane and McDermott believe they’re better talent and character judges than most of the NFL, and the easiest way to build a competitive team is to give them free reign to toss away the core of the old roster for promises of future, better players.
Of course, neither man has ever done this before (aside from a half season of interim GM-ing for Beane). We have to hope they can pull it off in Buffalo.
Tear it down
McDermott is approaching his eight month anniversary with the team. For Beane, it hasn’t even been four months. The timeline is irrelevant to these men. With the reins of the roster, they’ve overhauled the depth chart at a blistering pace not seen since Chip Kelly began micromanaging his first NFL team. Trading Ronald Darby, Kevon Seymour, Reggie Ragland, and Cardale Jones sent a clear message: If you don’t fit the scheme we’re planning, you’re less useful than a rookie we can draft a year or two down the road. Trading Sammy Watkins sent another message: there is no sacred cow, and if you aren’t available or one hundred percent on board with our program, you need not apply. Marcell Dareus has a bloated contract, but Beane won’t let him hold any illusions about his spot on the roster. The team has a strong preference for good character, and they don’t want any locker room distractions. Cause a problem, say goodbye.
Of the draft picks from Doug Whaley’s tenure as GM, only seven players remain on the roster. The Bills actively tried to bench one of them (John Miller) through the whole preseason, and it wouldn’t surprise anyone if the front office traded him, convinced that Juan Castillo’s handpicked flunky could handle the job at right guard. Seantrel Henderson managed to stick around by taking a paycut in his final contract year, but shouldn’t be considered a part of the team’s future plans. The only players with job security are the ones who happen to fit with the preconceived template that Beane and McDermott brought to the organization - defensive end Shaq Lawson, linebacker Preston Brown, tight end Nick O’Leary.
Veteran Presence
In place of these traded, youthful assets, the Bills have embraced veteran experience, practically to a fault. Starting linebackers Lorenzo Alexander and Ramon Humber are 34 and 30, respectively. Their running back corps includes a 28 year old fullback, a 31 year old fullback, two 29 year old halfbacks, and a 28 year old halfback. The offensive line, from left to right, is 27, 34, 31, 24/29, and 26. The Bills just gave a raise to Eric Wood, making him one of the priciest centers in the league, despite his age.
Even the youth is old. Only 15 players on the 53 man roster are under the age of 25. Thanks to Buffalo’s embrace of senior prospects in the draft, not a single player on the roster is younger than 22. Three Bills are younger than 23: Tre’Davious White, Zay Jones, and Tanner Vallejo. The average player on the Buffalo Bills is 26.74 years old, a mark which makes them the third-oldest team in the league this year. As a Bills fan, get used to it. For five straight seasons, the Panthers have had a roster among the six oldest in the league. In the last three seasons, the Panthers ranked second, third, and second.
Quick collapse, but not necessarily a quick turnaround
The 2017 Buffalo Bills aren’t a rebuilding team. They’re a team at the edge of the cliff, preparing to jump into the rebuild while pretending they’re competitive because they signed a group of longtime NFL veterans. The 2018 and 2019 NFL Draft will build the core of the McBeane roster. Buffalo has eight picks in 2018 (six in the top 100) and ten in 2019 (adding a fourth and two sevenths). Will the Bills package some of those picks to move up in the draft? It’s possible, but unless Sam Darnold turns into Andrew Luck, it doesn’t fit the modus operandi McDermott established as the “shadow GM” behind Buffalo’s 2017 draft.
More likely is that the team uses those picks for future flexibility - picking two players they like, then trading a second round pick for a higher pick in the next draft, giving them the opportunity to do the same thing in another year. The way NFL teams are constructed, it’s not feasible for ten rookies to easily make a roster unless the roster is really bad (or the rookies make up a rare, outstanding class). Better for the team to draft five top-100 players than to add four sixth round picks to the draft class.
This team will likely get worse before it gets better. A young core needs to form, and longtime veterans that the team embraces today (Kyle Williams, Alexander, Wood) may not make it through the transition. Building around college seniors and veterans may help speed the process, but the rebuild is still coming.
Of course, this plan hinges on Beane’s talents as a player evaluator, and McDermott’s talents at assembling a stable scheme and staff that can make use of the players drafted. The Bills took a large step when they settled on a unified vision with McBeane, (theoretically) embracing stability to allow this regime to implement its plan. That was the right choice to make, with the information we knew about these people.
Now we just have to trust the process.