FanPost

How Much Would it Cost to Get a Top 3 Pick Quarterback?

Let me start by saying that, despite his flaws, Tyrod Taylor would be on the Bills roster in heading into the 2018 season. Cutting him results in minimal savings, and that savings would have to be immediately reinvested in a veteran quarterback who is likely worse than Taylor and certainly less familiar with the Bills offense and scheme.

Of course, there are exceptions. If somehow the Bills decide they are going to go all in on spending $40 million a year on Cousins (who, in my opinion, is good but not great, and not worth the "biggest quarterback contract in history" he will assuredly sign since having even a top 10 quarterback hit the open market is such a rarity) then every single dollar of cap savings will count.

However, just because Taylor should be on the roster in 2018 does not mean he should be guaranteed the starting job or that the Bills shouldn't do everything possible to improve the quarterback position. The Bills must draft a quarterback this year, whether he ends up the starter in 2018 (beating Taylor in a camp competition) or sits for a year and takes over in 2019 (or towards the end of 2018, depending on how the season goes) as Taylor's contract runs out.

The question is just how the Bills get a rookie quarterback on the roster. While trading up for the best quarterback (or one of the top two/three, depending on how the pre-draft process shakes out, it's very possible quarterbacks go #1 and #2 this year, with another in the top five) sounds great, there is a very real opportunity cost to giving up several draft picks to get your choice of the quarterback litter. The drafts picks it would take to move up into the top three could be used to fill other holes (and there certainly are other holes to be filled). So, as we move into an off season where everyone agrees the Bills need a quarterback upgrade, but few agree how they should go about it, let's take a look of what it would actually cost the Bills to move up into the top two or three (again, depending on how the draft shakes out) to get one of the best quarterbacks in the 2018 draft class (likely Darnold or Rosen).

For this, we'll turn to some past trades where teams moved into the top three to get a quarterback. In the past few years we've has four of these trades, here they are:

  • 2017 - Bears trade 1st (#3), 3rd (#67), 3rd (2018) and 4th (#111) to San Francisco for 1st (#2) and select Mitch Trubisky.
  • 2016 - Eagles trade 1st (#8), 1st (2017), 2nd (2017), 3rd (#77), 4th (#100) to Browns for 1st (#2), 4th (2017) and select Carson Wentz.
  • 2016 - Rams trade 1st (#15), 1st (2017), 2nd (#43), 2nd (#45), third (#73), third (2017) to Titans for 1st (#1) and 4th (2017) and select Jarad Goff.
  • 2012 - Redskins trade 1st (#6), 1st (2013), 1st (2014) and 2nd (#39) to Rams for 1st (#2) and select Robert Griffin III.
A few things stick out about these trades that are relevant to our discussion. First, we can throw out the Bears trade for Trubisky, because they were only moving up a single slot (although they still gave up a surprising amount of value) and the Bills are much lower in the pick order, with the 21st and 22nd picks in the 2018 draft.

The weakness of the Bills draft picks is actually a really big issue. While draft pick value charts aren't the gospel, they do provide some amount of guidance in valuing draft picks, and the scary truth is that the 21st and 22nd picks in a draft are worth about the same as the 6th overall pick in the same draft. This means that, if we want to compare a potential trade up in 2018 to the Eagles trade for Wentz or the Redskins trade for Griffin, both of the Bills first round picks are roughly the same value as the single pick the Rams Eagles (#8) and Redskins (#6) gave up.

The Rams trade for Goff is slightly better news for the Bills, although the price is still high. The difference between pick #21 and pick #15 is roughly a very low second or a very high third. In theory, this means the Bills could potentially offer a similar package and throw in another 3rd rounder and make it work, although even here we have a problem. The Titans likely (and rightly) assumed the Rams would have a high pick the following year, which means either pick #22 or the Bills 2019 1st might not be valued as highly by a potential trade partner as the Rams 2017 1st was by the Titans.

With all of these things in mind, the cost of moving up into the top three (or perhaps top two) for a quarterback will start with both of the Bills 2018 1st round picks. After this, next year's first is likely in the conversation as well, because picks in the 20s simply aren't as valuable as the picks teams gave away in previous moves up for quarterbacks. But this isn't all, two or three 2nd and 3rd round picks will also be on the table, depending on exactly how things break down.

So, based on history, the Bills would probably be looking at something like this: 2018 1sts (#22, #23), 2019 1st, 2019 2nd, 2018 3rd, 2019 3rd for top 3 pick or...

2018 1sts (#22, #23), 2018 and 2019 2nds, 2018 and 2019 3rds, 2018 4th for top 3 pick.

With this cost in mind, what's do you want the Bills to do to improve a quarterback in 2018? Do they stand pat, pick perhaps the fourth (or even fifth) quarterback off the board at #21 or #22 and use the rest of their picks to fill the ample holes on the roster, or do they trade away (essentially) their entire draft, and a big part of next year's draft as well to get one of the top two quarterbacks in the 2018 drafts and look to fill the holes in other ways (likely budget-friendly free agents, based on the current cap situation)?

Just another great fan opinion shared on the pages of BuffaloRumblings.com.