The Buffalo Bills travel to the Midwest once again on Sunday, this time landing in Indiana to square off against the Indianapolis Colts. The Bills are 1-1 in that area of the country this season, having defeated the Minnesota Vikings and losing to the Green Bay Packers during the third and fourth weeks of the season.
This time, the Bills face off against a conference opponent. Both teams are on the outside looking in with regard to early playoff hopes, as the 2-4 Bills and the 1-5 Colts each desperately need a win to remain somewhat afloat.
In terms of fantasy football, the game presents some intriguing matchups solely due to circumstance. Here are the best bets for Colts to play in fantasy this week.
QB Andrew Luck
Buffalo has been eating quarterbacks for breakfast, lunch, and dinner of late, allowing the third-fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks this year. In fact, the Bills have only allowed 39.5 fantasy points combined over their last 4 games. For context, Jameis Winston had 32.7 fantasy points last week. So, why should you play Luck? The easy answer is volume. Luck has thrown the ball 31 times or more in every game this season. He’s thrown it 40 times or more in five games. He’s thrown it 50 times or more in 3 games. And he’s even thrown it more than 60 times once this year. He averages 22.3 fantasy points per game, and while I expect that he’ll have difficulty using primary weapons like T.Y. Hilton and Ryan Grant, he will throw the ball enough to approach his season average.
K Adam Vinatieri
The reliable veteran kicker is a valuable asset in real football and in fantasy football. He has made 11-of-13 kicks this year, including 2-of-3 from 50 yards out or more. He’s scored 54 fantasy points this year, and the Bills’ defense has been so good that they’ve been able to hold opponents to field goals often. They allow the ninth-most points to kickers, so investing in this 45-year old kicker could pay dividends this week.
Indianapolis isn’t known for having a good defense by any means. However, the Bills have a historically bad offense and are starting a quarterback who only signed with the team on October 9, has only started 4 games in the past 7 years (and in one of those starts, he only threw one pass—an interception—before Cam Newton returned to the lineup), and throws interceptions on 3.7% of his passes for his career. Derek Anderson is the real wild card in Sunday’s matchup for both teams. Until Buffalo’s offense can prove that it can attain even as little as mediocrity, any defense they play is a good start in fantasy football.