The bad news for the Buffalo Bills (2-6)? They have lost their last three games, and they’ve managed only 37 points over the last five games.
The good news (if there is any)? Buffalo just completed the hardest eight-game schedule of any team in the league, having played three playoff teams and eight games against teams that have gone a combined 33-26-2 through eight weeks.
According to ESPN’s Football Power Index, while the Bills played the NFL’s hardest strength of schedule over the first half of 2018, the remaining eight games add up to the league’s easiest strength of schedule over the second half of the year.
Moving forward, the Bills now have a 4.7 percent chance to land the overall No. 1 pick in the 2019 NFL Draft, a 45.1 percent chance at landing a top-five pick, and an 86.2 percent chance at drafting in the top 10.
On the flip side, the Bills’ chances at making a second straight trip to the playoffs are a robust 0.1 percent, while their odds at winning the AFC East are less than 0.1 percent.
Bills probabilties, per ESPN Football Power Index:— Mike Rodak (@mikerodak) October 30, 2018
Make playoffs: 0.1%
Win division: <0.1%
Top 10 pick: 86.2%
Top 5 pick: 45.1%
No. 1 pick: 4.7%
Five teams have higher chance for No. 1 pick: Raiders, Cardinals, 49ers, Giants, Browns
Things are bad for the Bills, but their prognosis the rest of the way could be worse: There are five teams that are pegged for better chances at picking No. 1 overall in the 2019 draft: the Oakland Raiders, Arizona Cardinals, San Francisco 49ers, New York Giants, and Cleveland Browns.