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Year Two, the Process. How should we define a successful season?

Disclaimer: Yeah this is probably way to long, Summary at the bottom. For those that are bored enjoy my ramblings that are in no way shape or form based on expertise with the x’s and o’s.

With the draft over and free agency pretty much done, it appears the roster is pretty close to what it will be opening day. I assume any additions moving forward will be shuffling around some players at the back end of the roster and don’t expect any additions that are a clear upgrade of what we currently have.

With that said, it is difficult to predict what type of season the Bills will have. The overhaul of the offense makes it a guessing game when it comes to predicting wins.

We can define a successful season in different ways:

  • Win the Super Bowl, second place is the first loser
  • We made the playoffs last year so making it past the wild card round this year
  • With all the turnover, just finishing .500 would be a success
  • Developing the team so it is stronger going into next year

Full disclosure, I am a full Billiever in The Process. My liver might be shot at this point after chugging so much process. I view the process as a long-term plan on how to bring a Super Bowl to Buffalo and compete for a Super Bowl on a consistent basis.

I see year 2 of the process as a transition year. It would be nice to make the playoffs again, but I’m glad they have stuck to their plan and not mortgaged the ultimate goal of winning a Super Bowl, to fill some stop-gap holes on this year’s team.

For me a successful season would be seeing the players that are part of this team’s future to improve and develop along with gaining some clarity on some positional units like the O-line.

Here are my thoughts on the position groups as far as where they stand now and where I would like/hope them to be by the end of the year yet still being realistic.

Defense

Secondary

  • Current State: Awesome
  • Goal: Stay Awesome and with better depth
    • This is the group that I have the least doubt about and until McDermott screws up I don’t care who they put back there.
    • They could re-sign Mike Tolbert and say he is going to be our new nickel corner and I still wouldn’t worry about it. If you think that’s crazy go back and take a look at what everyone was saying when we signed Poyer, who couldn’t even start for the Browns (obviously Tolbert would be crazier but you get the idea).

Linebackers

  • Current State: We assume will be better than last year albeit still thin at the position
  • Goal:
    • Edmunds developing into the LB we hope will be the Defensive Rookie of the Year and a future All-Pro
      • The goal would be him showing those signs by the end of the year even if he has some growing pains during the year
    • With Milano in his second year and second year in the system I expect him to be as good or better than last year
    • Lorenzo Alexander may be getting up there in age but I think they use him in situations where he can still be productive. He may not play as much as he did last year but I think he can help out in certain situations and his presence in the locker room is definitely a benefit
    • Depth LB: Someone besides Humber showing they can fill in and not be a complete liability

Defensive Line

  • Current State: Better than last year
  • Goal: Show they are better and can come together as a unit
    • Star Lotulelei to just be himself and keep eating up blockers for everyone else (stats are for losers)
    • Kyle Williams to hopefully not have lost much from last year
    • Harrison Phillips to develop his 3-technique and be a valuable rotational piece
    • Trent Murphy to be worth the money
    • Jerry Hughes to have a bounce back year
      • I think with the overall improvement in the line, it will benefit him greatly to get back to 10+ sack guy
    • Shaq Lawson to actually show up and do something or get traded for a late round pick.
  • Note: I personally think this unit has improved greatly with the addition of Star Lotulelei and Trent Murphy and adding Harrison Phillips into the mix will make everyone else better as well

Offense

Running Backs

  • Current State: A little better than last year
  • Goal: Shady to stay healthy
    • LesSean McCoy is pretty much where it begins and ends and the goal is just to stay healthy and fight off father time
    • Chris Ivory is an upgrade over any back up we had last year so just need him to show that when he does get his snaps

Tight Ends

  • Current State: Eh
  • Goal: Something better than eh
    • Charles Clay to be healthy enough to be productive for most of the year and perhaps put up some decent numbers in Daboll’s system
    • Everyone else to show some signs of improvement

Wide Receivers

  • 2017: Worse than Yuck
  • Current State: Yuck
  • Goal: eh
    • For as bad as the depth chart may look at the moment, they are starting off with a better situation than they had at any point last year. Unfortunately, that isn’t saying much.
    • Kelvin Benjamin to be healthy
      • A healthy Benjamin is better than any WR that played for us last year
    • Zay Jones taking a step up
      • I am still high on Jones despite the drops, "incident", and injury
      • I see him having a big year this year and leading the team in receptions and yards.
    • When it comes to the rest of the group I am just hoping someone can develop into a reliable #3 receiver

Offensive Line

  • Current State: Offensive
  • Goal: To find a diamond in the rough and keep our QB’s off the IR
    • Dion Dawkins is hopefully a name we don’t talk about. That is the goal.
    • Open Auditions: When it comes to everyone else I think the goal of this year is for two people to step up and show then can play to an average NFL level. I say this so when we go into next year there will only be 2 glaring holes on the line that need to be filled.

Quarterback

  • Disclaimer: For this one I feel it necessary to point out that Josh Allen is the QB we drafted and this about the goals for him, McCarron, and Peterman and not which other QB anyone would have drafted instead. I think everyone who would have taken someone else or just doesn’t like Allen has made their point 10 times over by now. Let’s move forward
  • Current State: Well that’s anyone’s guess, but I will say between the combination of the 3 we will get better play than last year
  • Goal: The development of Josh Allen
    • Josh Allen: I just want to see him finish the season starting games and showing signs of improvement and hope that he can develop into the franchise QB we all hope for.
      • I’m not sure when he becomes the starter but barring McCarron or Peterman taking us to the playoffs he will be put in at some point.
    • AJ McCarron: I think he will be serviceable at worst and expect him to improve the passing game. A selfish goal would be him lighting it up right out of the gate getting hurt, Allen coming in and dominating, and then us being able to trade McCarron for a decent draft pick.
    • Nathan Peterman: I want him to show that he is capable of being the backup QB of the future
      • I think the 5 pick game may have disillusioned some fans, but I think he can be a serviceable QB. It’s not farfetched that he wins the starting job for Week 1. Granted, he is the least likely, but by no means is it a long shot.

Offensive Coordinator

  • Current State: Whoooo, no more Dennison!
  • Goal: Implement a modern offense that can adjust based on personnel and match ups………and oh yeah…….Score Points!
    • Brian Daboll can hopefully take what parts he has on offense and turn them into a group that isn’t a liability to the defense and winning games

Summary

Defense

I believe this unit is more than capable of finishing in the top 10. If Edmunds can play decently out of the gate, and barring major injuries, or the offense not being able to stay on the field, this defense should be pretty good.

I think the additions on the defensive line, getting Edmunds, and the added depth to the secondary have the process close to complete here. And I’m thinking Trent Murphy ends up out performing his contract. He was targeted at the beginning of free agency like Hyde and Poyer were last year.

For the defense overall this year my goal would be to have them finish in the top 10 and see Edmunds look to be the real deal by the end of the year.

Offense

With so much change on offense my goal would mainly be to see some improvement in a few areas, as I see this unit is going to go through another big change next year.

The obvious goal is to get Allen in there whenever he shows that he is ready and see some positive improvement that we can be hopeful about going into next year.

I’d also like to see Zay Jones step up in a big way and show signs he is developing into a high end #2 receiver. For some reason if Benjamin has a big year I don’t see the Bills giving him a big contract despite the Carolina connection (don’t know why I just get that feeling). If that happens and someone else develops into a solid third option, the WR position could be fixed with just finding a #1 receiver next year (that is obviously easier said than done and we would probably have to use our first pick next year or make a trade for that to happen). This is my goal, perhaps a little bit more optimistic than realistic for this one, but plausible.

When it comes to the Offensive line despite it looking worse on paper than last year I expect it to somehow end up as a better overall unit than last year. The bar was set extremely low so they don’t have to do much to be better than last year and hopefully the new system masks the lack of talent. My goal would be for at least one and hopefully two guys other than Dawkins to step up and show they can play to a competent NFL level. They don’t have to be pro bowlers or even good, just be solid and not a liability so we only need to find 2 more starters going into next year.

Conclusion

Rather than focusing on wins and losses this year, I choose to measure success this year on how players here for the long haul develop. I look at the players on offense this year as auditioning to see who fits in Daboll’s system going into next year.

I don’t see us being bad enough to get a top 10 pick next year and we have a shot at making the playoffs if a lot goes right but I am more interested in seeing how the key players develop so we can make a legitimate shot of winning the division next year.

Feel free to let me know what you think of my goals for the season and what you hope to see from this team next year from a development/auditioning perspective rather than a win-loss prediction.

Just another great fan opinion shared on the pages of BuffaloRumblings.com.