Buffalo Bills rookie quarterback Josh Allen was impressive on Sunday against the Minnesota Vikings. He completed 15-of-22 passes (68%) for 196 yards and 1 touchdown. He added 10 rushing attempts for 39 yards and 2 touchdowns. The Bills went to Minnesota and dismantled a team that has Super Bowl aspirations.
With all of the positives, it’s clear that Allen’s future is bright in Buffalo. Does that mean you should buy in and add him to your fantasy football roster?
In short, yes. Yes you should.
Allen scored 27.74 fantasy points last week in a game where his offense had essentially shut it down after halftime. He has proven that he will be able to earn points with his arm as well as his legs. His total last week was good for fifth among all quarterbacks in Week three. He is also the Bills’ leading fantasy point scorer on the year, totaling 48.3 points so far. That leaves him twentieth among quarterbacks in fantasy scoring.
While being twentieth isn’t much to brag about, the percentage of leagues with Allen on the roster doesn’t match his overall performance. Allen is available in 97% of Yahoo! fantasy leagues. Here is a list of quarterbacks who are current starters for their team, have fewer points than Allen, and are rostered at a higher percentage than Allen is:
- Andrew Luck (47.68 points; 86% rostered)
- Tom Brady (47.16 points; 100% rostered)
- Case Keenum (44.3 points; 27% rostered)
- Eli Manning (41.5 points; 18% rostered)
- Derek Carr (40.34 points; 38% rostered)
- Mitchell Trubisky (37.04 points; 15% rostered)
- Sam Darnold (35.04 points; 10% rostered)
- Dak Prescott (34.42 points; 45% rostered)
Note that I’ve intentionally left off two quarterbacks who have missed time due to injury (Marcus Mariota and Carson Wentz) who both appear on a greater percentages of rosters than Allen currently does. Also note that all of those quarterbacks have played three whole games, whereas Allen did not play for the first 40 minutes of the season opener against the Baltimore Ravens.
Should you drop Tom Brady and pick up Allen? Absolutely not. Is Allen going to finish the year as a top-five quarterback in fantasy scoring? Probably not. Is Allen a better option than quite a few players who are on more fantasy roster than he is currently? Absolutely.
There are three teams changing quarterbacks right now, so the waiver wire will be hot for quarterbacks this week. The Arizona Cardinals are moving on from Sam Bradford, electing to start their own first-round draft choice, Josh Rosen. The Cleveland Browns are benching Tyrod Taylor for Baker Mayfield, the number one overall pick in the 2018 NFL Draft. The San Francisco 49ers just lost Jimmy Garoppolo to an ACL tear, meaning that C.J. Beathard will start for the foreseeable future.
The fourth week of the season also means that bye weeks are coming. Only two teams (the Washington Redskins and the Carolina Panthers) are off this week, but that means that Cam Newton and Alex Smith need to be replaced, if only temporarily. As far as bye week replacements go, Allen’s ceiling is definitely worth the risk.
There will be growing pains with Allen, just as there will be with any rookie quarterback. After all, Allen was considered to be one of the most raw of the quarterback prospects coming out of college this year. There may be a dud here or there, especially given the dearth of solid receiving weapons on Buffalo’s roster. He did just put up a 28-point performance, however, with a supporting cast of Chris Ivory, Zay Jones, Kelvin Benjamin (who has just been dreadful so far), Andre Holmes, Charles Clay, and Jason Croom. On Sunday, Allen elevated his supporting cast. There’s no reason why he can’t do it again.
If your league is a two-quarterback league or one in which a superflex position is used, then Allen is not only a must-add, but a must-start. If your league is more traditional, there is still no need to wait. The time is now to add Buffalo’s rookie quarterback.