Last week, the Buffalo Bills had a 71% chance of making the playoffs as a 6-2 team, according to the New York Times Playoff Simulator. After their loss to the Cleveland Browns and the shuffling in the AFC, they are now down to a 60% chance of making the postseason at 6-3.
According to the Times, Buffalo only has a 3% chance of winning the AFC East, a disappointing number. Even if Buffalo beats the New England Patriots in Week 16, the number only climbs slightly to 8%, but it would dramatically impact their overall chances of making the playoffs.
A win on Sunday boosts Buffalo chances to 69%, but a loss drops them to just 41%, which isn’t very nice.
Over at FiveThirtyEight, the Bills are at a 55% chance of making the playoffs, down from 68% a week ago. It’s the sixth-highest in the AFC, as Buffalo has fallen one percentage point behind the Pittsburgh Steelers at 56%. The Oakland Raiders are at 39% while the Indianapolis Colts are 33%. They also give the Bills just a 3% chance of winning their division.
Odds are a good indication of security, but 40-45% of the teams sitting in Buffalo’s spot right now WILL NOT make the postseason. Lots of Bills fans probably see that number and think “here we go again.”
Full AFC Standings
1. New England Patriots (8-1)
2. Baltimore Ravens (7-2)
3. Houston Texans (6-3, 5-1 AFC)
4. Buffalo Bills (6-3, 4-2 AFC)
5. Kansas City Chiefs (6-4)
6. Pittsburgh Steelers (5-4, 4-2 AFC)
7. Oakland Raiders (5-4, 3-2 AFC)
8. Indianapolis Colts (5-4, 4-4 AFC)
9. Tennessee Titans (5-5)
10. Jacksonville Jaguars (4-5)
11. Los Angeles Chargers (4-6)
12. Denver Broncos (3-6, head-to-head win over CLE)
13. Cleveland Browns (3-6, head-to-head loss to DEN)
14. Miami Dolphins (2-7, head-to-head win over NYJ)
15. New York Jets (2-7, head-to-head loss to MIA)
16. Cincinnati Bengals (0-9)
AFC Playoff Standings
1. New England Patriots (8-1)
2. Baltimore Ravens (7-2)
3. Houston Texan (6-3, 5-1 AFC)
4. Kansas City Chiefs (6-4)
5. Buffalo Bills (6-3, 4-2 AFC)
6. Pittsburgh Steelers (5-4, 4-2 AFC)
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7. Oakland Raiders (5-4, 3-2 AFC)
8. Indianapolis Colts (5-4, 4-4 AFC)
9. Tennessee Titans (5-5)
10. Jacksonville Jaguars (4-5)
11. Los Angeles Chargers (4-6)
12. Denver Broncos (3-6, head-to-head win over CLE)
13. Cleveland Browns (3-6, head-to-head loss to DEN)
14. Miami Dolphins (2-7, head-to-head win over NYJ)
15. New York Jets (2-7, head-to-head loss to MIA)
16. Cincinnati Bengal (0-9)