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Buffalo Bills in control of win probability against outclassed Miami Dolphins

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It was never in doubt.

Two weeks ago the Buffalo Bills won their most convincing game at that point against the Washington Redskins, which, depending on who you talked to, might have been cause for concern. However this week against the Miami Dolphins the Bills dominated from start to finish. Buffalo controlled two of the three phases of the game and won handily down in Miami. While the win came against a team many outlets have painted as a pushover, no division rival can ever be overlooked. So, let’s look at how the Bills ran away with the W in Week 11.

(All charts courtesy of numberFire LIVE)

The Bills came into this game with a 67.30% win probability. Through the entire game they would never dip below 65% and in the second half would not dip below 80%.

The first significant play of the game came on a 40-yard touchdown pass from Josh Allen to John Brown. The play gave Buffalo a +6.04% swing and would give the team an early two-score lead. The play itself was probably Josh Allen’s best throw of the year to this point and would be the beginning of the end for Miami.

As I stated above, the Bills dominated two of the three phases of the game, where they fell short was their special teams play. The two biggest swing plays of the day for Miami would come on special teams. This 101-yard touchdown return would give Miami a +7.80% swing and put themselves at a 15.44% win probability. Earlier in the first half Miami would recover an onside kick that would swing them +5.30%

Buffalo held over an 80% win probability for the entire second half of the game. However the dagger came on a nine-yard touchdown pass to John Brown. This play made it almost impossible for Miami to mount a comeback and for the first time this season, the Bills began the fourth quarter with more than a two-touchdown lead. The Bills moved to 7-3 on the year Sunday with a game against an interesting Denver Broncos team next in Week 12. With one of the tougher back-half schedules in the league, the Bills’ win against Miami was both necessary and refreshing.