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AFC Playoff Odds: Buffalo Bills up to 66% chance of postseason berth

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The Bills moved up slightly after their win over Miami

The Buffalo Bills maintained a healthy lead in the AFC playoff race with their win over the Miami Dolphins on Sunday. With their 7-3 record, they have a 66% chance of making the playoffs according to the New York Times Playoff Simulator. That’s up from 60% a week ago but down from 72%, where they sat before the loss to the Cleveland Browns.

According to the Times, Buffalo only has a 3% chance of winning the AFC East, a disappointing number. Even if Buffalo beats the New England Patriots in Week 16, the number only climbs slightly to 8%, but it would dramatically impact their overall chances of making the playoffs.

A win on Sunday boosts Buffalo’s chances to 78%, but a loss drops them to just 48%, which isn’t very nice but also isn’t a killer.

Over at FiveThirtyEight, the Bills are at a 71% chance of making the playoffs, up from 55% a week ago and 68% before the loss to Cleveland. It’s tied for the fourth-highest in the AFC, tied with the Houston Texans and ahead of the Indianapolis Colts. The Oakland Raiders are at 40% while the Indianapolis Colts are 54%. They give the Bills just a 2% chance of winning their division.

Odds are a good indication of security, but roughly one-third of the teams sitting in Buffalo’s spot right now WILL NOT make the postseason. Lots of Bills fans probably see that number and get scared.


Full AFC Standings

1. New England Patriots (9-1)
2. Baltimore Ravens (8-2)
3. Buffalo Bills (7-3)
4. Kansas City Chiefs (7-4)
5. Indianapolis Colts (6-4, head-to-head win over HOU)
6. Houston Texans (6-4, head-to-head loss to IND, head-to-head win over OAK)
7. Oakland Raiders (6-4, head-to-head loss to HOU, 3-2 AFC)
8. Pittsburgh Steelers (5-5, 4-3 AFC)
9. Tennessee Titans (5-5, 3-4 AFC)
10. Cleveland Browns (4-6, 4-3 AFC)
11. Jacksonville Jaguars (4-6, 4-4 AFC)
12. Los Angeles Chargers (4-6, 2-5 AFC)
12. Denver Broncos (3-7, 3-4 AFC)
15. New York Jets (3-7, 0-6 AFC)
14. Miami Dolphins (2-8)
16. Cincinnati Bengals (0-10)*

Full AFC Playoff Standings

1. New England Patriots (9-1)
2. Baltimore Ravens (8-2)
3. Kansas City Chiefs (7-4)
4. Indianapolis Colts (6-4, head-to-head win over HOU)
5. Buffalo Bills (7-3)
6. Houston Texans (6-4, head-to-head loss to IND, head-to-head win over OAK)
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7. Oakland Raiders (6-4, head-to-head loss to HOU)
8. Pittsburgh Steelers (5-5, 4-3 AFC)
9. Tennessee Titans (5-5, 3-4 AFC)
10. Cleveland Browns (4-6, 4-3 AFC)
11. Jacksonville Jaguars (4-6, 4-4 AFC)
12. Los Angeles Chargers (4-6, 2-5 AFC)