The Buffalo Bills’ win moved the team to eight wins in 11 games, a record the team hasn’t enjoyed since 1996. With that big-time record, Buffalo received a sizable boost in their playoff odds according to multiple analytics sites.
After beating the Miami Dolphins a week ago, Buffalo moved from 60% to a 66% chance of making the playoffs according to the New York Times Playoff Simulator. Their win over the Denver Broncos pushed their odds to 80%. In two weeks, they’ve moved from a 3-in-5 chance to a 4-in-5 chance with their two wins. A Thanksgiving win moves them into the 90s while a loss only drops them to the mid-70s.
Unfortunately, the New England Patriots also continue to win, and the same simulator gives them less than a 2% chance of winning the AFC East. With games against the Cincinnati Bengals and Miami Dolphins left on the Patriots’ schedule, it’s going to take a pretty stunning collapse for the 10-1 team to fall out of first.
Over at FiveThirtyEight, the Bills are at an 82% chance of making the playoffs, up from 71% a week ago. It’s the fourth-highest in the AFC, one percentage point higher than the Houston Texans. A Turkey Day win moves them up to 94%. They give the Bills just a 1% chance of winning their division.
I feel like it’s my job to remind you that bad beats still exist. Even if four teams out of every five make the playoffs from this position, that means one of those same five teams won’t. Hopefully, Buffalo won’t beat the odds this time.